TdF Stage 13

Bastille day

C'mon then Clay .. let's get a ferry over and storm the bastille for ol' times sake.

59 Frenchmen in the break .... can I bet Roy is in the break?

Backed:
No french winner 1/5
Greipel 4/1ew
Cavendish 3/1

I've just backed Griepel

Going to back Sagan i think.  There is a (potentially) nasty 180 turn just before finish, so i wonder how effective Goss & Greipels lead outs will be.  Sagan been quite intelligent and improving with positioning on flat sprints (not quite final speed of others), so likely to take a chance on Sagan being in right place at right time.

Well done with Millar today Marychain.

the betfair prices are huge on the front 4 in the market. are people expecting some sort of break to succeed a lot of the time? feeling a bit mugged

4/7 the top four on here.

Can't help thinking the market is being shaped by the Sky's other priority issue. Wouldn't Cav be shorter than 4.3 if everyone were sure Sky really wanted this stage?

Might have a little to do with Cav describing today as "hell", will he have legs tomorrow?

Will OGE and/or Lotto try to drop Cav over the Cat 3 late on, and if they do, will Sky release riders in order to work him back into contention?

I reckon Cav would have quit the Tour by now unless he was given some sort of assurances that he will have some team support on the upcoming flat stages. There's nothing left in this race for him unless he gets a dig out from Team Sky.

IMO this stage is a 1.01 train to a sprint finish with the Big 4

lets hope so

Was just looking for reasons as to why he is 4.3.

I agree its a stage for sprinters, but do think that it will be interesting in the final 2km with that 180, although not confident at how tight the turn is, it could be quite sweeping.

I disagree that Cav would quit the Tour if he was riding for 'nothing', i think he really respects the Tour and would want ride to Paris regardless of assurances or not.

Best of luck tomorrow guys.

In any other year, I'd agree, but Cav badly wants to win the Olympic road race.

I don't expect to see Sky chasing tomorrow unless yellow comes under pressure from a break - which isn't impossible.

dont fancy cav at all. there's a nasty steep little climb near the end which wont suit him and the only stage he won i thought he was pretty lucky (maybe u call it skill) to get in the perfect position with no help from his team and even then he only just pipped griepel. cant see any value in his price at around 4.5

Just think it suits Sky to give Cav a full lead out because it keeps Brad and Froome out of danger (relatively.)

The finish is on a roundabout (though shaped like a guitar pick)! They do a 180 degree turn in 400m, but it tightens progressively; the second 90 degrees is done in 100m. Then there's a 200m straight.

For a view of it, go to Google Maps and put the following text into the search bar:

OFFICE DE TOURISME DU CAP D'AGDE Rond-point du Bon Accueil

The finish is by the entrance to the tourism office on the south side.

If ever a powerful lead-out were needed.....  Which team wants it most?

Now 1/2 the top four.

Evens Cav in top 3! Goss and Greipel bigger. I've backed Sgain for top 3 at 3-1!! I really can't see the break sticking with so little opportunities for sprinting teams in last week.

Agreed. OGE and LTB must chase this if Goss and Greipel are to have any chance of overhauling Sagan.

Yes, bunch sprint imo. Sky will surely only do any work if someone notable gets into an escape. Gone back in on Griepel win and place at 6.2 and 2.04.

Morkov
Chavanel
Nuyens
Gilbert
Boeckmens
Hinault
Simon
Casar
Dumoulin
Gerrans
Voigt
Marcato
Fedrigo
Roux

E/W 4 Places

I like Gilbert...he has been improving all the time and I think this stage will suit him. He will do for me

Im not sure about Gilbert. Two of the earlier stages were much more his cup of tea and, even if the finish did have an uphill kick he just doesnt seem to be blitzing the best fields like he did this year. Other than Mont St Clair, a Cat 3 23k from the end, its flat as a pancake. The notable things about this stage are its length and that there is likely to be echelons. There will be some very tired riders by the end.

Backed Cav (@4.3) with smaller wins Greipel and Goss.  Approx evens the three seemed OK to me.

Sagan and Goss most likely to get over the climb in a prominent position, Greipel and Cav less so. Bit steeper than Box Hill!

Mørkøv looking for Stage win for his father today, who passed away 5years ago.  Tough to see him winning, but i want him to...

Starting to get interesting! Crosswinds, peloton split, all main players for sprint still there I think

where's cavendish now?

im lucky he's out of it now, had a humungous red on him

Could be a crash and a half near finish listening to the commentary...going to be flying if downhill!

Wiggins is quite strong then! Didn't see Froome?

Give it a rest please.

thank god for that, must research courses better.

Lol ... always looking for a bite!

Laid Cav, backed Sagan ... finish level!

layed morkov 4.4 in play too!

Hook, line and sinker.

Gilbert getting closer......

Great result that, greipel win and place my only bet. Also got him in a face spitter with chisora KO and khan KO tonight

I dont know how the hell Greipel gets over these hills. Cav is half the size of him and cant manage it

p.s. i think its fair to say Wiggo has a point to prove lol. wonder when the last time the yellow jersey led out a sprint!!

Greipel said he only had one behind him in the lead group at the top of the hill .... more desire?

im surprised he had 1 behind!!

Lol

That was the guy pushing him up!!

gasgay lol!!!!

so much **** being talked about Wiggo - he's absolutely dominating this tour

absolute nonsense. Dominating my backside. Was getting dropped on climb when Froome Dog said Gooooooooooooooooooo

blah. the same way he was 'dropped' when Evans and Nibali made their attacks??

Evans and Nibali are not climbers. Froome is. hence why is was dropped. Dominating??? I've heard it all now

Difference between Cav and Greipel was simply down to the teams, Sky didnt leave anyone behind to pace Cav over climb or anyone to bridge gap when he was dropped.  Greipel had riders with him, and then his team worked like madmen to get him back in contention & then in control, his team worked so hard that they burnt out with about 4km(?) to go and Greipel had to follow Wiggins/EBH.

Initially thought Sagan got up, but Greipel too strong.

Well done winners.

What the hell are u on about Clay?? 'Evans and Nibali are not climbers'????!! Wiggins has been attacked loads of times in this tour so far - each time the attacker goes clear of Wiggins - thats what an attack is and no different from what Froome did. Each time none of them made any time on Wiggins. Now its POSSIBLE that froome maybe wudda made the attack stick and gained significant time on Wiggo if he'd been allowed to go by the team but we simply cant know this for sure.

i just dont get why u are so sure that Froome's attack wudda stuck when every single attack from all the other riders hasnt

i dont really understand how a guy like Cav needs to be 'paced' over a short cat 3 climb?? surely u just bust a gut to stay in contact and thats about it, no?

Might have been a short climb, but a 10.2% climb, not as easy as saying "oh ill just bust a gut", he was all over the place as soon as it started, a couple of teammates would have helped imo.

Nice statement from Wiggins today: "it's all about the team"

well if he was all over the place as soon as it started i cant imagine a couple of teammates wudda got him over in contact

a 10.2% climb if you aint got the legs it aint going to happen.drafting has very little impact on steep climbs

Fair enough, i think it wouldve helped his chances, you dont.  Hope you layed him.

very true geoff. some people seem to think team-mates can help u get up a climb. apart from a bit of moral support and helping with drinks there's f all they can do to help. The reason sky have a mountain train is mainly to keep the pace high and regular which suits wiggins' riding style and discourages attacks

gotta say i still find it amazing that griepel is getting over these climbs. you would think he'd be pretty much the worst climber in the peleton

The reason why Froome's attack would have stuck is he is a very good climber and Wiggins would have had no one to help him chase him down. Evans and Nibali are not great climbers, hence why their attacks didn't last - plus Wiggins had men around him to help chase them down.
You must get this? Surely?
Dominating the Tour? Really? hmmmmmm

Agree that drafting isnt a significant factor over such a short sharp climb, so thats maybe why i didnt mention it.  I understand completely why Sky didnt send riders back, i raised those concerns yesterday, there was also the fact Cav had noone to help get him back into contention, Greipel did.

Cav cycling alone up that climb or Cav cycling with two teammates, will they always finish with the same time?

Greipel was apparently a fairly solid climber in his youth, but its still surprising.

Some people

come on HoD, time to get the stage 14 fred going...I'm on a roll here. Wish I'd doubled Miller and Griepel up.

oops ..I'm on it!