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HoD
12 Jul 12 20:39
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Date Joined: 18 Dec 11
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: HoD's blog
Evening (morning) guys and gals (depending on location in the world). Seems like I have got myself a job opening the stage thread every day! Enjoying it but I must admit I was a little off the mark with Stage 11. Not many saw Evans' collapse although Rolland was pickable ... stronger than I thought though.

Stage 12 is interesting: two Cat 1 are over within 80km of the start leaving another 126km of relative flat (until a Cat 3 before the end that will prevent any true sprinter winning it). Sagan is fav and rightly so but a breakway could get a few minutes over the steep stuff and who will chase them down. Sky boys have 20 mins over everyone outside top 20 so they won't bother. Down to Liquigas then? Chavennel, Gilbert, Albasani have chances. My outsider is Iglinsky.

Good luck friends!
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Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 12, 2012 8:55 PM BST
yeah not that surprised to see evans struggle tbh. he's a great battler but he's not really a natural climber imo. always looks to be making v hard work of it. In a way im glad wiggo crashed out of last years tour coz i reckon he'd have won it and im glad cadel finally won a tour at his age.

that iglinsky won LBL. he looked v good when he bt nibali on the last climb. i suppose he'd be a good bet for a medium mountain type stage
Report Dope July 13, 2012 12:19 AM BST
No idea. Don't think it'll be a very interesting stage but at least the finish should be decent.

Albasini or Gerrans stand a great chance if they get in the break and I'm certain OGE will throw someone in there!

Lars Bak has been awfully quiet, about time he made a break!
Report JustWinBaby July 13, 2012 3:34 AM BST
It will be interesting to see how Sagan has recovered after a couple of tough mountain stages
Report JustWinBaby July 13, 2012 3:44 AM BST
Looks like a profile which get Chava and Dirty Sanchez interested in a breakway
Report Skewball July 13, 2012 9:45 AM BST
Hi all, not posted here before but I've been reading the daily stage posts with interest.

My question to you all is do you think Sagan is overbet today? I would have thought the two cat 1 climbs here make him vulnerable - even with basso backing him up.

Im considering laying him, but would welcome your thoughts
Report db1974 July 13, 2012 10:02 AM BST
I can't really see Sagan going for it myself. The pressure is on Goss to start getting the intermediate sprint points at this stage so IMO the only way Sagan will be there or thereabouts today is if Goss tries to get into a break and then Sagan has to track him. However the chances of that happening with designated flat stages both tomorrow and Monday are very slim IMO.
Report plcam July 13, 2012 10:03 AM BST
Sagan is a big lay for me, he said after yesterday's stage he is tired and with sprint stages coming up I think he will be saved for other days.

Eddy Boasson Hagen will be a bet in running if he was allowed in a breakaway but I very much doubt he will get permission.

My only pre race pick is Rui Costa @ 66/1.  He was in good form pre tour and has said he is targeting stage wins.

I'll be looking to back the strongest guys in the break as I think it will stay away again today
Report HoD July 13, 2012 10:22 AM BST
I think the clever thing is not to back anyone until after first 80km. Rui Costa a good shout ... only so long until Jeremy Roy has another go too.
Report ClayDavis July 13, 2012 10:58 AM BST
Andriy Grivko anyone?
Report ClayDavis July 13, 2012 10:59 AM BST
Also got a sneaky suspicion David Millar might fancy his chances today
Report Leemo July 13, 2012 11:00 AM BST
Peleton reeling em back at the minute
Report Leemo July 13, 2012 11:02 AM BST
1st bet for me BTW, Chavennel. Fancy Liquigas team on this one to dictate
Report Leemo July 13, 2012 11:10 AM BST
Ok guys am busy today so here the bets then will watch highlights later. GL All. S Chavenel, P Gilbert, J Roy and T Voekler
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 11:31 AM BST
Hi gang, hope you're all well today. I have got the worst hangover ever today after yesterday's Tour de France party round my mate's house. Was supposed to be a gentle day of watching eating cheese and wine following a gentle 25k ride round Frodsham in the morning. Ended up in a bar at 2am drinking Ochentoschen.

Luckily I am on leave again today. Just had a long, hot bath, settled down to watch the cycling, and logged into my Paddy Power account to find that at some stage I have backed Sanchez @ 16/1 and Miller at 125/1 or today's stage.
Report Ozymandius July 13, 2012 12:21 PM BST
Early start today gents.
Report lucylucky July 13, 2012 1:26 PM BST
excellent drunk punting marychain (if you meant millar)
Report HoD July 13, 2012 1:58 PM BST
Robert Miller has no chance ... he retired years ago mary! Let's hope you put it on David Millar!

Breakway will stick ... I've gone Peraud
Report Ozymandius July 13, 2012 2:05 PM BST
Eurosport commentators have been pissed as farts all day
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 2:15 PM BST
Yes have got Millar, wish I'd drunkenly put more on now. Its each way as well, so even a place would be pleasing. Backed Peraud and Popovych when the break was forming as well. Popovych back in the main peloton now I presume, but got 18/1 on Peraud.

If its anything like yesterday, Peraud will come second, Miller will come 4th and in the next few miles I'll lay the winner more than once. Grin
Report laroche July 13, 2012 2:19 PM BST
I'm on Peraud too. Ex mountain biker might like a slogging finish.

What a storming, enthralling stage this is! History in the making.
Report HoD July 13, 2012 2:25 PM BST
Peraud's bike looks too smal for him! I was hoping he goes up the Cat 3 ... good climber
Report HoD July 13, 2012 2:25 PM BST
*small
Report db1974 July 13, 2012 2:31 PM BST
marychain - the worst result would be Peraud pipping Millar for 3rd!
Report HoD July 13, 2012 2:40 PM BST
The over-round on the breakaway riders was 95% a few minutes ago! £950 to guarantee winning £1000!!
Report HoD July 13, 2012 2:41 PM BST
....unless they all fall off and Sagan wins
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 2:45 PM BST
Who do we think then?
Report HoD July 13, 2012 2:49 PM BST
Tough finish ... too tough for Millar? (sorry) Kiserlovski or Peraud for me
Report db1974 July 13, 2012 2:54 PM BST
Stopped being interested in this stage hours ago after all the guys I backed pre-stage didn't bother their arses trying to get into the breakaway

I am however on Martinez @ 5/1 to cover all those losers
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 2:54 PM BST
Hoping Kiserlovski is tired.
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 3:02 PM BST
doesn't particularly look it
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 3:07 PM BST
Just emailed Paddy Power to ask if they will double the odds on my Miller bet if he dedicates the stage win to Tom Simpson on today, 45th anniversary of his death. Wonder if the other 4 will let the Brit win?
Report db1974 July 13, 2012 3:08 PM BST
Double-or-quits or just double your winnings!
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 3:10 PM BST
Ill let you know if I get a reply Laugh
Report lucylucky July 13, 2012 3:28 PM BST
haha, had no idea about tom simpson.
Report razz July 13, 2012 3:42 PM BST
just tuned in(a bit late i know) how come the main group is 10 minutes in front?
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 3:44 PM BST
Its just a breakaway that the peloton weren't bothered about chasing down, fun and games now...
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 3:47 PM BST
Be the third different British stage winner as well if Miller wins this...Shocked
Report lucylucky July 13, 2012 3:48 PM BST
fingers crossed for you mc
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 3:49 PM BST
Go on Millar, time trial it home
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 3:50 PM BST
Yeah!!!!
Report lucylucky July 13, 2012 3:50 PM BST
very well done, wish i followed in!
Report db1974 July 13, 2012 3:51 PM BST
Well done
Report HoD July 13, 2012 3:52 PM BST
Well done .... I laid and couldn't lose either way ... but Peraud would have been best!
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 3:52 PM BST
makes up for yesterday when I got virtually cleaned out
Report geoff m July 13, 2012 6:28 PM BST
Cracking shout marychain well done!
Report Catford Toteboard July 13, 2012 7:49 PM BST
Yes great shout mc well done.
Report History Maker July 13, 2012 8:54 PM BST
Well done Clay and Mary.

Actually the 4th British stage winner, assuming that you count time trials (which the race organizers do).

Cavendish
Froome
Wiggins
Millar
Report marychain1 July 13, 2012 9:48 PM BST
Yeah it was actually Cav I forgot
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