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HoD
09 Jul 12 20:09
Joined:
Date Joined: 18 Dec 11
| Topic/replies: 517 | Blogger: HoD's blog
Rest day first (my boss will be happy that I might get some work done after lunch!) then Stage 10.

A big one: the Colombier but in the middle of the stage rather than the finish. Sandwiched by a Cat 2 and a Cat 3. Big descent to finish so Nibali springs to my mind. Moncoutie is one of the few who could make a break stick on a mountain like this. SP might not like him but Casar will try something somewhere! Team Sky likely to dominate the peloton so hard to see Menchov, Evans, Nibali or Monfort gaining much on an attack. Zubeldia is old enough to be a grandad. I have a feeling GC pretenders will leave it until later in the week. Scarponi and Rolland are 10 minutes down: would Sky bother chasing them if they went for it? I doubt it, so if Rolland is value, I might dabble.
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Report ClayDavis July 10, 2012 12:15 PM BST
If a Nibali attacks and Sky are forced to chase him down, Evans can pounce. he can sit and watch Sky do all the work
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 10, 2012 2:57 PM BST
lol at nibali attacking!! he'll be busting a gut just to cling onto the back of the sky train
Report HoD July 10, 2012 3:02 PM BST
lol Sir Denis ... I had a laugh at that one too. Laughed at Evans pouncing as well! Hasn't he tried twice now just to have Froome go past him on Stage 7 and Brad ride back onto his wheel without even leaving his saddle on St 7 and 8!!
Report lucylucky July 10, 2012 3:07 PM BST
i suspect nibali will be a lay in play if he attacks (i personally think he has to gamble at this stage and may die whilst descending aggressively)
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 10, 2012 3:10 PM BST
thats not a very nice thing to say lucy
Report ClayDavis July 10, 2012 3:32 PM BST
Just you guys wait....Nibali will attack
Report HoD July 10, 2012 4:14 PM BST
I agree Clay, he will attack ... but downhill not uphill; he's not got the legs of Porte and Rogers let alone Froome and Wiggins.
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 10, 2012 4:15 PM BST
lol
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 10, 2012 4:16 PM BST
pointless him attacking downhill, he'll just gain a few seconds at most on wiggo and froome and they'll close the gap on the flat in about 200 yards lol
Report ClayDavis July 10, 2012 7:59 PM BST
Wiggo struggled up the Galibier a few years back - same again
Report Dope July 10, 2012 8:54 PM BST
Hard stage to call.

All the climbs and decents were in this years Dauphine, Stage 5. Arthur Vichot won that stage and he's racing tomorrow... unfortunately he's not on the Betfair market.

I like Chavanel for tomorrow, from a break. If the break is reeled in then Evans from a select group.
Report Fallen Angel July 10, 2012 9:48 PM BST
Bit gutted I am working tomorrow as thought this stage would be very interesting. Could see a surprise winner again if someone goes clear as can see Sky happy to take the crowd along without worrying about someone not contending for the GC. Sky seem to have so many weapons this year. Evans doesn't seem to have the team around him to cope and although he was making positive noises yesterday his destruction in the time trial will have hurt bad.
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 11, 2012 12:06 AM BST
Wiggo struggled up the Galibier a few years back - same again

can someone please lend this guy a brain cell
Report lucylucky July 11, 2012 8:22 AM BST
Wiggo struggled up the Galibier a few years back - same again

can someone please lend this guy a brain cell


hahahahaha
Report HoD July 11, 2012 8:39 AM BST
I'd already backed Vichot! Odds on here would be good.

Clay - Wiggo was pretty handy up the same climb a month ago .... don't hold your breath for a struggle today
Report BlockingBug July 11, 2012 10:00 AM BST
Best chance of doing Sky any damage would be Evans and Nibali working together. Not sure if that's something they feel they could arrange. We'll know soon enough if riders from the respective teams attack early though. Objective being to disrupt the Sky train and attack a tired Wiggo on the downhill.

The one problem with all that is Froome. They might get at the rest of Sky but so long as Froome drags Wiggins up the climbs then their advantage will be seconds at most and that's not enough.
Report HoD July 11, 2012 10:09 AM BST
Agree Blocking - just was I said on Sir denis' thread.

One of the Director Sportifs (Katusha?) said that they would work with another team to beat Sky .... but can you really see it happening. I'm sceptical.
Report laroche July 11, 2012 10:10 AM BST
Vichot on the list now - 100 or so.
Report JustWinBaby July 11, 2012 10:26 AM BST
Wiggins to beat Froome today at over evens looks a cracking bet today gents, GL
Report BlockingBug July 11, 2012 10:29 AM BST
Had a bit of Jeremy Roy today. Feeling he'll get in the break.
Report db1974 July 11, 2012 11:17 AM BST
Took Vichot @ 200/1 each-way yesterday for peanuts
Report BlockingBug July 11, 2012 11:49 AM BST
Can't see this break going anyhwere
Report lucylucky July 11, 2012 11:50 AM BST
sagan will pull them up and win the stage...
Report db1974 July 11, 2012 11:56 AM BST
20 riders chasing the Sagan group now
Report db1974 July 11, 2012 11:57 AM BST
12 riders, not 20. Sorry.
Report HoD July 11, 2012 12:18 PM BST
No, you're right .... 23 in break now!
Report HoD July 11, 2012 12:19 PM BST
25!!
Report lucylucky July 11, 2012 12:26 PM BST
who's in the break and why is froome now 8/1? can't get a stream going :( any links?
Report db1974 July 11, 2012 12:26 PM BST
Dan Martin not in the breakaway

Talking up his chances of a stage victory in the Irish Times every day but hasn't gotten into a break yet.

Doing my head in (and my wallet)
Report ClayDavis July 11, 2012 12:26 PM BST
Nibali will attack. I think someone else needs brain cells not me. I was illustrating the Wiggo has struggled up big climbs before when people attacked him. That is FACT
Report db1974 July 11, 2012 12:27 PM BST
lucy - don't have a stream but the official site gives the 25 in the break

http://www.letour.fr/le-tour/2012/us/live/aso/
Report lucylucky July 11, 2012 12:33 PM BST
Burghardt, ****s, Popovych, Voigt, Scarponi, Sagan, Grivko, Voeckler, Arashiro, Martinez, Millar, Zabriskie, Peraud, Jeandesboz, Horrach, Casar, Hutarovich, Ladagnous, Sanchez (RAB), Kroon, Morkov, Fofonov, Devenyns, Gerrans and Goss.
Report lucylucky July 11, 2012 12:34 PM BST
LOL they filtered cumm1n9s
Report Wessex July 11, 2012 12:46 PM BST
When asked the other day 'Alps or Pyrenees' Scarponi said 'definitely the Alps' so getting marginally hacked off at not taking the 40ish earlier (50/1 with C0rals!) as I had him more down for the uphill finish tomorrow
Report HoD July 11, 2012 3:25 PM BST
Well, well ..... Nibali attacking downhill ... we said that! No legs to attack uphill where the time gaps are made.
Report BlockingBug July 11, 2012 3:36 PM BST
I bought some insurance on Nibali this morning in the winner market. Think he's more of a threat  than Evans to be honest although he's going to need at least 2 minutes in the time trial?
Report BlockingBug July 11, 2012 3:37 PM BST
That said, big ask to get any major time on his own. Think he'll get reeled in, it not completely.
Report razz July 11, 2012 3:48 PM BST
sanchez seems like a good bet for stage winner? he seems to be keeping up with voeckler with ease
Report HoD July 11, 2012 3:54 PM BST
Yes - Luis won a couple of similar ones in Paris-Nice (or was it Romandie??)
Report BlockingBug July 11, 2012 4:00 PM BST
Apparently there is a bit of a climb at the finish. Who does that suit? I'm on LLS.
Report razz July 11, 2012 4:13 PM BST
voigt did well to get back to the lead group there, good finish from voekler though
Report razz July 11, 2012 4:15 PM BST
doesnt look like evans will get much time back on wiggins
Report E.W.7 July 11, 2012 4:16 PM BST
sanchez = MUG
Report HoD July 11, 2012 4:16 PM BST
zero
Report BlockingBug July 11, 2012 4:17 PM BST
Gah bloody phone went and I couldn't get involved on the finish. Small red on Sanchez as a result. Oh well.

I don't mind Evans but that was a pointless attack at the end and made him look a little silly. At least Nibali gave it a go somewhere it actually mattered.
Report lucylucky July 11, 2012 4:28 PM BST
Layed Voigt 3/1, easy
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 11, 2012 7:00 PM BST
oh dear laid tommy V, didnt think he'd have a chance of the stage win lol
Report E.W.7 July 11, 2012 7:26 PM BST
@ what odds did you lay him ?
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 11, 2012 8:01 PM BST
4.5 ish
Report geoff m July 11, 2012 11:37 PM BST
Rather than consider the prospect of going for a podium place, Froome, who finished second in the Vuelta a Espana last September, one place ahead of Wiggins, is adamant his role is to aid the triple Olympic champion's bid to finish with the yellow jersey.

"The priority is to be with him and carry him to the line the best I can," said Froome, who won Saturday's seventh stage when Wiggins claimed the maillot jaune.

"I know I'll get an opportunity one day in the future where I'm here with a team that's backing me the way the team's backing Bradley now."
Froome on Wiggins    Quotes of the week

"It's not worth me pushing on to maybe get second or third when it's him who's got to win. I'm already two minutes behind him.

"I know my time will come one day. I don't think this year's a year for me to look at the yellow jersey.

"I know I'll get an opportunity one day in the future where I'm here with a team that's backing me the way the team's backing Bradley now."


Going forward looks like Sky will get help/have an alliance up front from Radio Shack-Nissan as Jurgen Van Den Broeck is obviously keen on improving his placement in the top 10 & attacking Zubeldias & Montforts 6th & 7th place
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