why is wiggo still odds against?

ive had him as a 4/6 shot since the dauphine but

- bad descender so nibali/evans could get back time
- havent had the TT yet so market doesnt know hes going to take a minute off the field yet
- may blow up on the big mountains
- european money dominates the market and doesnt want him to win?

=I can't recall Wiggo losing anytime on a decent ever. Nibali is very good but Wiggo isn't 'bad' by any means.
=Agree
=Looked very strong on 22% yesterday. Just can't see it happening.
=They'll start betting with their brain instead of heart soon!

1.5 after TT, I reckon.

"European money dominates the market"

True but most of the European $$ is from England - the vast majority I would suggest so I cannot have this argument at all.

Perhaps you`re not aware that BF is banned in France & unaccesable there. In Spain & Italy new turnover tax legislation means there is no more Betfair exchange just the **** odds BF Sportsbook. Germany, Belgium and Cyprus are about to follow with similar new laws which will leave only a handful of continental European countries able to bet on the Betfair exchange.

Quite the opposite of your suggestion is the case. No China, USA  & most of Europe on here now leaves this place dominated by punters from the UK.

Ideal for Wiggins would be for Evans to take 12 or so seconds today in the descent and take yellow for the ITT. The Sky skin suit for the ITT is thought to be 1 second per kilometre quicker than the yellow jersey.

So, Wiggins' gap over Evans could be increased by as much as a minute by not being in yellow. I still think he'll take a minute or so off Evans over 50k, and about 3 minutes off Nibali.

i was only guessing at european money.

is the sky skin suit actually faster? if so, why wouldnt wiggo let evans take yellow on the climb yesterday?

10 seconds is a lot to give up on the basis of a suit, even if there is something in it. Better to try and palm off the jersey to someone today. Not as easy as it sounds as the right man needs to be found.

I think there is some nervousness in Wiggins' price about Sky's ability to manage the Yellow jersey. Strong as they looked yesterday, they don't want to be defending it for two weeks.

If Wiggins' price goes out if they relinquish Yellow today though that would be mad.

Surely Sky will have a yellow skin-suit for the time-trial or are they obliged to use the tour-issue jersey?

They have to use the tour-issue jersey, has been a controversy about it because they reckon it will be 50-100 seconds difference in Wiggins' time using it.

Good news from Gary I's update there.  Sky have made and will be allowed to use their own yellow skinsuit tomorrow

excellent

Easy for Wiggo today. Strongly advise you all take the odds against now.Will be long odds on when he wins the TT tommorow and goes 2 mins clear.

p.s. i see PP are 9/4 Wiggo for the TT. easy money

Cancellara is cycling well though!

7/4 now

Strongly advise you all take the odds against now.Will be long odds on when he wins the TT tommorow and goes 2 mins clear.

Ker-ching

Sky could get themselves in a real tangle because Froome is so high. He's a more explosive climber than Wiggins, and could go with a Nibali/Evans attack better than Wiggins would be able to.

I can really see themselves slitting their own throats like they did in the Vuelta last year. Wiggins has been climbing better this year though, so who knows. I don't bet on cycling, but at 1.44, I'd be laying Wiggins and backing Froome, but only to tiny stakes.

The only other dangers are Menchov, but that would take a total change of attitude - not impossible, but unlikely, and Vandenbroek who's probably shipped a bit too much already to overhaul all of the front four.

Froome will not win. He isn't as good as Wiggins. Worth a bet for 2013 though because Brad says he will not defend.

Why the hell would Wiggo not defend it?

Vuelta 2011. Stage: 15. Anglirs - Wiggins cracks on the steep-wall section and Froome gains 33secs on him.

Vuelta 2011. Stage: 17. A monster 211km stage, Pena Cabarga - Froome wins a cracker, gaining 39secs on Wiggins.

Tour 2012. Stage 9 ITT: Froome loses 35 secs to Wiggins, and will likely do the same, later.

Froome will need to find a conservative 1min30secs in the mountains, that's at least on two stages he has to ride away from Wiggins. After the Vuelta I don't know if he is the same rider in terms of listening to team orders. It may be that he doesn't listen to them, and he has every right to do so, he can prove he is a Tour winner here this year, and will be assured of a spot on any team of his choosing. Why should he stay with Wiggins in the mountains if he can attack him and win as he's proven he can in the Vuelta? I guess the question here speaks to his mental attitude, and whether he is a dogged individual?

Something worth considering.

Cheers,
SP

History Maker • July 10, 2012 2:37 AM BST
Sky could get themselves in a real tangle because Froome is so high. He's a more explosive climber than Wiggins, and could go with a Nibali/Evans attack better than Wiggins would be able to.


If Nibali & Evans attack & Wiggo cant go with them then its Froomes job to tow Brad not go chasing on his own.
Would only be in the event of some catastrophe to Brad that Froome will be allowed to do his own thing.


Clutching @ straws guys here this race is all over bar an accident.

Wiggins has to be favourite, sure, but I'm not sure that he's value at 4-9. The massive thing in his favour is that the final time trial is the day before Paris, so the others probably need at least a minute on him before then.

I think that Wiggins could crack in the mountains. He's better than he was though, and whether he'd crack to the tune of losing 3 minutes is open to question. I think that he'd need 2 really off days to get caught. If they were to happen in the Alps then Froome might be given a free hand, but it'd probably be a bit late if those two bad days were both in the Pyrenees. I'm not saying that he will have two stinkers, but that's what it would take.

Wiggins has always said that if he won, he would find a different challenge for next year. SP: All good points but Wiggo road away from Froome on St 12 (from memory ... haven't cross checked) and the Vuelta was extremely steep and high altitude - Wiggo has now trained for it rather than just 'giving it a go'.
If Froome did not stick with team orders then his cycle career would be over. No one would touch a selfish rather than team rider. Brailsford is not going to let Froome go unless Brad is cooked and I really don't think it's going to happen - not got Vuuelta's gradients and altitude training on Teide has been extensive. Previously, when Brad has blown he has been above 2000m. TdF only gets that high twice.

Is 1/3 value? Consider running the race 100 times from this position. Would you back Brad to win 75% of the times? That's 1/3.

From memory, the only stage of the Vuelta where Wiggins rode away from Froome was when Froome pulled the peloton mid-race for quite a long time.

I think Froome will be doing everything he can to help Wiggins win. Hopefully Froome's chance will come next year.

I was undecided before the time trial, but now I think 1.4 is great value. He'll win it how Indurain used to I think. Just get up the mountains with out cracking and gain time in the time trials. I think it's incorrect that Froome is so short. I don't think he'll be given the freedom to go for it this year. So even if he could take time out of Wiggins he won't.

My fault, not stage 12 but 11 in 2011 Vuelta. Relative to other Vuelta climbs where Froome put a little time into Wiggins, it was low at only 1750m at the summit finish at Montana Manzaneda. He struggled when it got over 2000m because he had done no altitude training for well over two months (pre TdF). Froome had been training for it. The evidence that Froome can just cycle away from a fit Wiggins on the mountains is questionable at best.

1.4 is easy money

Evans/Nibali etc might try to attack mid-race like Andy S last year or early like Contador did.  But this would likely be doomed to failure - Sky has such a strong team to bring back any break.

anybody who thinks there is the slightest chance of froome beating wiggins in the GC barring an accident/illness to wiggins clearly knows nothing about cycling. As i've said before wiggins should be a 1.1 shot from here which is about the probability of crashing out/getting v ill. There is no way any of the other riders can put him under serious pressure on the climbs - he's in the form of his life and has by far the strongest team behind him. In fact it is the others who will be put under pressure - at some stage I would not be surprised to see wiggo and froome ride away from the rest on a big climb and finish clear (wiggo would no doubt gift froome the stage win).

+1

Hadn't looked ahead at the stages until now and amazed at what a soft Tour it is this year. Hard to think that anyone will be able to take enough time off Wiggins to offset his superiority in the time trials.

It would need riders like A Schleck or Contador to put Wiggins under pressure this year who are able to attack in Pantani style. As such riders are not present the only chance to beat Wiggins seems to be someone doing a ride like Virenque or Chiapucchi were able to deliver in the big mountain stages, but Sky has to make a tactical mistake to let someone who still has a small chance escape.

lol if Evans took Virenque-style doses of EPO he might be able to do a ride like Virenque. And I dont agree that Schleck or Contador (without the drugs!) could put Wiggins under big pressure.

p.s. somewhat off topic, I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of the forum on Cobo who won last year's Vuelta. Did he do anything before 2011?? He doesnt seem to have done anything since. Must say Im a bit dubious about his performance in the Vuelta...

Firstly, I don't think it'll stand the test of unbiased argument to say that Froome is selfish if he ignores team orders and attacks Wiggins in order to win the Tour for himself. If anything; people will see a rider frustrated by playing domestique to Wiggins in the Vuelta when he was the best rider in the team, and the best chance Sky had to win it, then. 

Vuelta 2011:
General Classification after Stage 21:
1  Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (Spa) Geox-TMC               84:59:31   
2  Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky                        + 0:13 
3  Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky                           + 1:39

And now they will see, a rider who has been pushed to extreme action to carve-out a little room for himself in the landscape through the belief that he is the better rider on the team, and always has been. If Wiggins is as good as he claims, and as good as the team believes he is, to put all their eggs into the one basket, then they should have nothing to fear from Froome. It's not like the opposition have a perceived one-two knockout punch - in light of Tejay's failure alongside Evans so far - and Froome would be putting the team at a disadvantage by attacking Wiggins.
 
Froome's stock price has just shot-up, any team would want a "selfish" rider if that rider's only focus is to win a race for them -- the him being selfish. We are talking about hard currency here, something evidently misunderstood in the Sky team if past team tactics are any clue. And let's not forget that the true champions we mostly all remember fondly, all had that selfish streak to the get the job done for themselves no matter their perceived flaws for being thus.

The only interesting question is whether Froome has such doggedness? Would he be willing to alienate himself within the team for the remaining days to claim all the glory for himself and become a star with the potential of becoming a true champion?

There is no doubt that Wiggins is now a solid favourite, in fact no doubt that he was a solid favourite ante-post for those who witnessed all he has done so far this season, through hard work as he claims. After all, no one just hands out these stage races to riders for just showing up:

Paris-Nice
Tour de Romandie
Criterium du Dauphine

Now, of course it is fair to raise the point in the negative for Froome from the Vuelta. Wiggins did ride away from Froome, true, but as has been suggested (I don't recall exactly) but Froome was slaving as the domestique for Sky in that stage, pulling the peloton making the selection. A selection which Wiggins failed in, admittedly not in the shape he is here.

Vuelta 2011:
Stage 11:
Wiggins finish a massive +3.08 back on the winner, in the group on 10th place.
Froome doing all the heavy-lifting, only 0.27 back on Wiggins.

The altitude question is definitely one worth examining as the signs point favourably for Wiggins, in fact. And they should, because if past performances are to be exhumed for scrutiny than he gets an F for fail! He has done some training at altitude for the Tour and we can expect that he'll perform, and whilst there is only the one true Alp stage, helping his cause, it's nevertheless a monster which could cause anything to happen.

Tour 2012
Stage: 11
HC up to 2000m for starters, from just 345m.
Midway HC climb up to 2,067m.

Even a fit Wiggins will struggle here, any rider looking to either attack or even defend a strong attacking move, will suffer and encounter many serious questions about their title aspirations here. I agree there's no Pantani nor Armstrong in the peloton to rip Wiggins apart? This is serious vertical and it goes to altitude. Wiggins can pop here very early, anyone can, simply because the difficulty of the stage is at the extreme level, and thus lose serious amounts of time. And so the question I'm interested in raising is, whether Froome can pull away from Wiggins given the possibility for the scenario I have formed?   

Finally, the price question, probably the only one really worth examining since whether Wiggins wins or not in Paris is beside the point to his price at present. People like HoD who have got on Wiggins at impressive prices in the double-digits have already won, and the only thing left to decide is where to find the second winner. Personally, that's what I don't understand when people raise talk of 1.01 and such for Wiggins, because 1.40 to 1.01 doesn't sound like there's a lot of money to be made from that, actually.

HoD - not sure about your sums there, but they're always important, and here is what I have:

Wiggins @1.40 represents a 41% implied probability of winning.
Evans @5.70 represents a 15% implied probability of winning.
Froome @13.5 represents a 7% implied probability of winning.

Now, since I am putting forward the Froome scenario the question is this: Is Wiggins - from this position - x6 more better rider than Froome? Or: Is Froome x6 times more inferior rider to Wiggins?

If we are discussing this Tour in the present shape it's in, surely it's now about identifying where the evidence is for which price fluctuation might occur, next. Because if it isn't than surely there are better ways of claiming a 1.40 winner? I mean, what kind of person would get serious about 1.40 for the amount of riding still left in this race? Yes, a winner, and yes a winner claims his winnings, but I'm not interested in 1.40 when there are so many other exciting options to observe.

Can Froome's price tumble to odds-on, for instance? For limited liability and high return I'm willing to say yes!

Cheers,
SP

P.S. With a title of Sir before your name Denis Eton-Hogg, you should know that you don't need to tell someone that they don't know anything about a subject because their opinion differs to yours. It's like saying that we should all be the same, and think the same, not realizing that the diversity of who we are as a species makes us so powerful and unique - which is evident in our varied opinions on all subjects.

P.S.2. marychain1 - please regard yourself in the Dope box I have placed you in, meaning I will now be ignoring you on the forum as I have him. If you think that winning is about "booming" on those that lost because their opinion was different than you are in the game for the wrong reason, and I have no fancy to discuss things with you on this forum.

Sir Denis Eton-Hogg
10 Jul 12 18:37
Joined:
16 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 7,330 | Blogger: Sir Denis Eton-Hogg's blog
lol if Evans took Virenque-style doses of EPO he might be able to do a ride like Virenque. And I dont agree that Schleck or Contador (without the drugs!) could put Wiggins under big pressure.





sir denis have you watched a lot of bike racing??

i take it you didn't see wiggins get broken against the 2 great men on the Col de la Madeleine 2 years ago losing 5 minutes??


A_T your right tour isn't so brutal this year

'great men'

swinging pick - i simply cant see where the hell yr coming from with this Froome thing. There's about as much chance of him attacking wiggins as there is of Ryan Giggs attacking Wayne Rooney.

Football and cycling whilst understood to be team sports are in fact dissimilar on account of fitness, talent, attrition, and skill on an individual level in a general classification, and so I fail to identify the association you make. Sky don't win the team classification if just one of their riders wins the GC, only if the total number of their riders collectively are superior in time to the other teams, do Sky win the team classification. Giggs doesn't win if he looks better than Rooney, the team must perform against the opposition together to win the for themselves. One rider can win the race for himself if he is good enough, and in the case of Froome if he is dogged-enough to alienate himself from the team for personal glory. Does he have it in him? I don't know! But is it a realistic scenario worth considering given the manner he was treated in the Vuelta 2011, by the team, and given his enticing odds? Yes! Will it happen? You don't believe so! Thanks for your contribution, then.

Actually Froome doesn't need to attack, he just doesn't need to hang around if Wiggins is having a bad day in the mountains, riding away instead. What do Sky gain in nailing Froome to Wiggins on a bad day where Evans rides away, for instance? Nothing! And since the possibilty exists for Froome to ride away, even if it is remote, it makes more sense to me to back him with limited liability than to do back Wiggins at a short 1.40.

I am not about convincing people, I am furnishing the forum a point-of-view. Don't agree? No worries! Have a comment to add which is worth exploring, then please do!

Cheers,
SP

SP

Your figs seem a bit off

Wiggins @1.40 = 71%
Evans @5.70 = 17.5%
Froome @13.5 = 7.4%

Without Wiggins, that suggests Evans would be 4/6 Fav and Froome a 3/1 shot.

Interesting to look at the Froome issue from Sky's point of view. What would they prefer? A Wiggins win, or a Sky win? If Evans attacks on one of the big ones and Wiggins cracks, what would serve Sky's interests best? Froome to track Evans? Or Froome to hold back and help Wiggins?

"Sky don't win the team classification if just one of their riders wins the GC, only if the total number of their riders collectively are superior in time to the other teams, do Sky win the team classification."

SwingingPick - the team classification is calculated by adding the times of the three best riders of each team per stage.

SwingingPick is a loon, he sees only validation to his contrarian views. Sometimes he does talk sense but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Nothing wrong with a contrarian view.
Always remember it is the contrarians you win money from.

Thanks Laroche - your figures are correct. As previously stated 1.33 is 75% (just imagine putting £3 on 4 times and having 3 winners) and 1.4 is 71% (the formula being 100/x). Obviously evs (2.0) would be 50% and odds on (less than evens) is expectation that it wins more than half of the times.

Differing opinions make the forum interesting - as you can see by my posts and instigation of the stage chats, I am very interested in the views of others and (not to blow my own trumpet) I'd say I am slightly more than an armchair fan and my opinions and views are open to analysis and scutiny (there are enough of them here). I don't recall being to far off in my stage predictions.

IMHO there is a most likely scenario and a minor possibility. Can't see anything else occuring. Sky will not allow the 'wrong' break.
Most likely: Sky ride as a team up every slope in the tried and tested Knees, EBH, Rogers, Porte, Froome, Wiggins order. They will set a pace that they are comfortable with (as done a thousand times in Tenerife on their training camps) which will be too high to allow Evans, Nibali etc to attack. Possibly a  few seconds will be lost to breakaways or opportunist moves in last few km but essentially Sky are home and dry given TT ability.
Minor possibility: Aggressive tactic. On the steep stuff Froome goes (because Kelly/Brailsford tell him to - there is zero possibility he would go without this because no team would ever sign him again if he went against team orders). Evans, Nibali, Menchov are forced to go with him or lose more time; Wiggins tags on to the chasers. If Froome caught, Wiggins goes; again Evans etc have to chase. Froome tags along. (If only the Schlecks had some balls (or legs) they might have tried this last couple of years). 

The chance of Wiggins blowing is virtually zero given no food poisoning, temperature getting to 37, climbs over 2500m. No doubt, he does not have an explosive kick uphill but the pace he can do uphill is staggering and enough to see virtually all of his wheel.

Finally, a plea. Respect opinions of other, do not revert to insults or playground behaviour. If you believe someones opinion is wrong, formulate an argument as to why - use facts, justify, and shoot it down but try not to degrade, may be even accept a differing opinion? I know this is hard when we are faceless pseudonyms with little or no chance of actually meeting. I'm in Bromsgrove, UK if your close!

laroche - yeah mate, correct. Using a new overround calculater and it was set for US non-decimal or I obviously had left out minusing the stake. Agree with your figures, and apologies to HoD, you are - and were - correct mate:

Wiggins @ 1.40 = 71.43
Evans @ 5.7 = 17.54
Froome @ 13.5 = 7.40

...I think Sky would prefer a Wiggins win since they have invested so much of their brand in him, however so long as a win comes in the form of a Sky rider on the top step in Paris, they wouldn't mind too much if it turned out to be Froome. Certainly, it only looks like a back-up plan for them and all focus is to work for Wiggins.

geoff m - I don't have contrarian views for the sake of it, last year in the Vuelta I tipped Wiggins ante-post to win at around 14/1 I believe, then when he became favourite I went on to find Cobo at 50/1 the eventual winner - that'ts effectively two winners in one race, even now the market thinks there's something to what I say since Froome's price narrows from 13.5 to 11.5. I'm writing this stuff anyway to crystallize my views, so I thought others might be interested to read them. I'm not claiming anything, and all I've ever done is offer an inventive opinion. And I don't do it because I want to be right or influence the market to my own ends, I do it because it's fun to think outside the box, not with the masses but with originality. Yes, I will get it wrong in many cases and you will win as a result, but don't make the mistake that I begrudge you your win, I'll be the one conratulate you for backing Wiggins and winning at 1.40. I'm not saying I want to lose, I'm having some loose change on a wild theory based in factual clues, that's all.

Hey, if Froome becomes Evans' price of around 5.7 -- I won't be complaining, either, but he has to show something, and I think it's a good bet he will. But a bit wild, admittedly!

HoD - totally agree with your plea, I could say more about it, but it's best to just ignore things, sometimes. In relation to Most likely: - I agree! Minor possibility: I agree also. Though, funny thing this pro-cycling caper, especially in the Grand Tours, there's always the possibility of something happening which no one saw coming, well maybe at least one crazy person, but that's usually the contrarian, and I'm told you win money from them!

Cheers,
SP

P.S. I'm on the Lower North Shore of Sydney -- if anyone is visiting Australia than I'm happy to show you some of the sites of my home City, may even lend you my old fixed-gear and you can see Sydney the way I enjoy best!

SP - You only need to see Froome's interviews and you would disregard the notion that he will drop Wiggins. He's doing his job as part of a well organised machine and he is *very* cognisant of that. I do hope he is rewarded for his efforts in the future, at Sky or elsewhere. However, unless Wiggins situation became impossibly helpless, he will drop back to help him until told otherwise.

In fact, from what I can make of his character it's more likely Sky would be more ruthless than him in this regard.

That said, a Froome attack would ignite the race but it's a fanciful scenario at best.

Interesting thread this, helps make up for an as-ever-fascinating but seemingly very predictable tour from here on.  The remaining stages provide very limited options for serious attacks on Wiggins by the remaining very few GC contenders.  Odds look about right to me, if anything I'd have Wiggins shorter as I tend to agree with Sir Denis that Froome won't attack Wiggo, so the difference in their prices is all about Wiggo dropping out, serious crash or being very very ill.  If this did happen, I suspect that Froome would become favourite over Evans as he would be free to attack and drop Evans without fear of dropping Wiggo (which I suspect is holding him back at present). However, for this scenario to occur Wiggo's collapse needs to be early enough to give Froome the chance to make up time on an uphill finish.

Can we please drop this silly notion that Froome is a far superior climber to Wiggins and that given a free rein he could shoot off and drop Wiggins. Its simply not the case. Wiggins is at least the equal of Froome as a climber and probably better. The reason Froome beat him in last years Vuelta was coz Wiggo wasnt at 100% having broken his collarbone a few weeks earlier. Breaking bones is a serious business and takes it out of you, especially when u are an elite athlete. And on stage 7 Wiggo wasnt the slightest bit bothered about winning the stage, he was quite content to drop most of the GC contenders and let Froome take the glory. The fact that Froome put 2 secs on him on the run-in is virtually meaningless.

My guess is that Froome might be better on shorter, steeper climbs with Wiggins better on longer, flatter climbs.  The rest of the Tour should provide some answers to this

thats probably the case but i wouldnt think there's much in it either way, a few seconds here and there

BB - Very interesting to hear your incisive thoughts - that's really all I was working toward. Instead of telling me I'm an idiot, you decided to address the heart of my theory. Thanks! Now, if Froome felt hard done by in the Vuelta, I'm confident he may have found an opportunity to join another team, and the fact is he didn't, and there's no possible way you finish 2nd in a climbers' Grand Tour and not gain interest from other teams. And well, that is consistent with your reading of his character, that he may just feel that if he goes about his humble domestique role - his opportunity will come his way sometime in the future and he'll only get better for it when it presents itself.

Enjoy the Tour folks,
SP

...meanwhile, another comfortable day in the armchair - i mean saddle - for Wiggo

I'm on the Lower North Shore of Sydney -- if anyone is visiting Australia than I'm happy to show you some of the sites of my home City, may even lend you my old fixed-gear and you can see Sydney the way I enjoy best!

Best city in the world Swinging Pick.

Got loads of mates there, probably largely around where you are. Spent three weeks there last spring. Whereabouts are you exactly? I stayed with various friends in Cremorne Point, Neutral Bay, Kirribilli, Northbridge and in an amazing house in Balgowlah Heights. Absolutely love the place.

Can we please drop this silly notion that Froome is a far superior climber to Wiggins

Long live silly notions!!

calm down - just coz froome made an attack hardly makes him a superior climber does it? nibali went off the front when froome was in the group - does that make nibali a better climber than froome?!