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Wow .. after some dull days, the crash, and then Sky bossing it. Superb viewing although my worst gambling day due to Evans lacking a finishing kick.
Stage 8 full of bumps. Breakaway, especially if full of non-GC contenders has a real chance of staying away. Roy, Casar, Chavanel, Moncoutie all decent shouts.
However, I've jumped on Nibali at 100-1. Arguably the best descender and if he is in the lead group over the Croix (Cat 1) then he might sneak it to the finish to try and grab some seconds. 100-1 too big.
Stage 8 full of bumps. Breakaway, especially if full of non-GC contenders has a real chance of staying away. Roy, Casar, Chavanel, Moncoutie all decent shouts.
However, I've jumped on Nibali at 100-1. Arguably the best descender and if he is in the lead group over the Croix (Cat 1) then he might sneak it to the finish to try and grab some seconds. 100-1 too big.
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Day for the break for sure but it's a lottery trying to pick a winner!
I like Casar, Gerrans and Julien Simon... reasonable climbers with a decent sprint for the flat finish and all ride for teams who will throw someone in the break.
Nibali seems unlikely to me, there is 5km+ of flat after the final decent and the break is likely to survive anyway.
I like Casar, Gerrans and Julien Simon... reasonable climbers with a decent sprint for the flat finish and all ride for teams who will throw someone in the break.
Nibali seems unlikely to me, there is 5km+ of flat after the final decent and the break is likely to survive anyway.
Still not short enough to LAY but Casar, Chavanel, and Moncoutie are precisely the kind of riders I'd be looking to bet against with confidence in a stage like this. I mean, Chavanel (33rd stage 7)put up the white flag very early yesterday, and it's highly unlikely that he's going to recover by today. Casar (39th stage 7) is a joke plain and simple, and Moncoutie (51st stage 7) couldn't survive in an earlier, multi-rider breakaway on the flats, let alone on a stage like this.
So, there are two ways to look at this stage: 1.) Is that it's a lumpy stage suited for breakaway riders like Gorka Izagirre (18th stage 7), and some loose change at the start is worth the gamble of finding him in the breakaway. 2.) Is that it's a stage with a final downhill run to the finish suited for riders who survive with the peloton, but have proven they can attack on the downhill and take risks. And then, I like someone like Robert Kiserlovski (42nd stage 7), who impressed me in Liège-Bastogne-Liège by essentially finished with the bunch for 4th place. Would add my standouts Vanendert (21st stage 7) and Rolland (7th stage 7) if things are still together approaching the last climb. Also, Pieter Weening 31st was solid, for mine.
Cheers,
SP
So, there are two ways to look at this stage: 1.) Is that it's a lumpy stage suited for breakaway riders like Gorka Izagirre (18th stage 7), and some loose change at the start is worth the gamble of finding him in the breakaway. 2.) Is that it's a stage with a final downhill run to the finish suited for riders who survive with the peloton, but have proven they can attack on the downhill and take risks. And then, I like someone like Robert Kiserlovski (42nd stage 7), who impressed me in Liège-Bastogne-Liège by essentially finished with the bunch for 4th place. Would add my standouts Vanendert (21st stage 7) and Rolland (7th stage 7) if things are still together approaching the last climb. Also, Pieter Weening 31st was solid, for mine.
Cheers,
SP
Stage 8 - good chance of a breakaway holding today. With that in mind I've done two potential breakawayees in Simon Gerrans 40/1 Lads (50/1 with Spoils but I'm limited to pennies), Yaroslav Popovych (200/1 Paddy Power). I've also done Evans at 66/1 with Baldy, just in case the breakaway doesnt hold. There's some quite technical descents and a decent possiblity of rain, which should suit Evans as he tries to pinch some time, and possibly yellow, ahead of tomorrow's ITT.
Sandy Casar has won 3 stages at the Tour in the last 5 years and had two top 3s last year, a 2nd @ this years Giro... but he's a joke? OK then.
I'm not sure the peloton will allow Chavanel into any breaks since he's only 2'22 down on GC but if he is allowed then I'd expect him to go on to win the stage.
Moncoutie is a great climber, to say he "couldn't survive in an earlier, multi-rider breakaway on the flats, let alone on a stage like this" is bemusing, when do breakaways ever survive on the flats?! A hill top finish would be better suited but it's the sort of stage I would not be suprised to see him giving a go - not expecting him to win a sprint if doesn't reach the finish alone!
I'm not sure the peloton will allow Chavanel into any breaks since he's only 2'22 down on GC but if he is allowed then I'd expect him to go on to win the stage.
Moncoutie is a great climber, to say he "couldn't survive in an earlier, multi-rider breakaway on the flats, let alone on a stage like this" is bemusing, when do breakaways ever survive on the flats?! A hill top finish would be better suited but it's the sort of stage I would not be suprised to see him giving a go - not expecting him to win a sprint if doesn't reach the finish alone!
isn't Moncoutie a really bad descender? He has to take more than 1' from his compagnions on the last climb to have a chance of winning the stage
Vinokourov, will love the finish today , reckon just about far enough down on GC to be given rope to win today.
This is carnage! Going to be some tired riders for the ITT tomorrow
Backed Pinot yesterday at 100, and he wins today at the same price. Typical. Still, got to happy with 2nd on Evans at 66/1.
Dope - I've got not time for you, other than to tell you that I have no time for you after the disgraceful way you treated me during the Worlds last year, on this forum. If you disagree with me and wish to furnish the forum with your view than that is your choice, but I'll be ignoring you.
Cheers,
SP
Cheers,
SP
I believe I misread the finish to this stage - the downhill portion wasn't very technical and long as I expected, and the actual run in was over a long, fairly flat timetrial-style course. Certainly the advantage was with the Wiggins chase group - great stuff from Pinot!
Cheers,
SP
Cheers,
SP
Beware the trolls SP!
My wife dragged me out just when I had to lay my Nibali bet - could have laid at less than 10s when I backed at 100s. Oh well, only cash! Pinot definitely one for the future. Can he TT?
Two losses in two days but really shouldn't have been!
My wife dragged me out just when I had to lay my Nibali bet - could have laid at less than 10s when I backed at 100s. Oh well, only cash! Pinot definitely one for the future. Can he TT?
Two losses in two days but really shouldn't have been!
Great ride from Pinot. Had some fun trading Sagan when Liqigas were at the front. Thought for a few seconds the Frenchman would get caught so not really taken much away from today.
Would have thought Spartacus should be favourite for tomorrow, not Wiggins? Great form, Tony Martin not 100% etc.
Would have thought Spartacus should be favourite for tomorrow, not Wiggins? Great form, Tony Martin not 100% etc.
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