TdF Stage 7

Evans a good call .He needs to attack to try & put time into  Brad.
Menchov e/w squeak (thats if hes still in the race) not seen him since the prologue.

BMC are in a comfortable position coming into this stage, and we can identify their strengths by observing Tejay VAN GARDEREN's presence ahead of EVANS on the GC. Obviously Tejay is a strong support for Evans, and he'll be his trusty support for this stage and later climbing stages, however after the major selection there will be attacks, especially on the steep last 5km bit, and if these attacks come from anyone other than Wiggins than Evans doesn't have to do anything. Absolutely nothing! Tomorrow is all about patience for Evans, I feel. I don't see that Evans gets his first opportunity to seal the deal for himself as some news stories would have you believe. This is a long race, there'll be plenty more climbs and tests and opportunitites to come, and for Evans this stage represents nothing more than staying patient and staying with Wiggins. Incidentally, Sky have Froome for the same kind of deal as BMC have with Tejay. Remember, Evans is under no pressure, he doesn't have to prove anything by being the reigning champion, and when asked at the start if this race this year will be harder, he answered that; it'll be easier because he knows what to expect. No pressure, no need to attack, sit back and watch.

Okay, so what can we expect:? An attack after the feed zone? The "occasion" or noteworthy nature of the stage through the media hype, will get the better of one or two riders and they'll endeavour to get into a breakaway. Casar comes to mind as the obvious pretender who'll think he can win tomorrow, he's been pulling crap like that his entire career, but rarely wins and I don't expect he will in this case. Gorka Insausti Izaguirre has a far better chance, and not only does the stage really suit his style of riding, I believe, but his time deficit is at a frame which will get him excited about giving things a good shake. However, at the time of writing he is not even included in the market, and perhaps it'll be much better to observe the break and discover who is in it before committing funds to a roughie. Nevertheless, the others worth considering are Coppel, Hoogerland, and Chris Anker Sorenson, particularly Coppel, although he is not in the market either, at this stage.

I see that the major selection will come either up the last 5km bit as mentioned or more likely just before it, and here we may gain a similar scenario to the recent Giro, where Szmyd was setting the punishment for those in attendance, and even though I rate Nibali as a pretender for the overall win here this year, he is obviously still in it and so Szmyd will be doing the business for him. This should be a large group and I believe that on that last 5km bit is where the attacks will begin and where we'll see the stage winner if he's not riding to victory in a breakaway.

So far in the betting for this stage, Evans is not only in the hunt for favouritism but Tejay is not even listed, and this would suggest to me that the market is suitably following media hype. I may be wrong, naturally, however if I am BMC Directeur sportif, I'm looking at the big picture and the big picture in this instance means I have a proven high-mountain climber who can make plenty of time in the high mountains, and I'm not throwing down an ace card in the first week on a stage suited for a wily opportunist with some climbing credentials. Making Evans an obvious LAY for the stage, for mine.

Cheers,
SP

having big price casar. hoping in break. Samuel Sanchez loves hills and rides alone, will attack and he won't be followed as slightly behind in the GC.

Poor market, missing boat loads of riders.

Amets Txurruka?
Jeremy Roy?
Rein Taaramae?
Juan Jose Cobo?
Nicolas Roche?

Ah, my bad Amets Txurruka has abandoned.

Quite a few other riders won't be starting

Freire and Wynants both have broken ribs / punctured lungs
Erviti deep leg wound
Dupont broken arm / vertebra
Gutierrez is doubtful with a knee problem
Also questionable - Hesdejal, Van Summeren

Not as bad as Wout Poels though - broken ribs and spleen / kidney ruptures - he got out of the ambulance and back on his bike for 10km before he had to quit - nutter

Hi SP.

Agree. Wiggins and Evans will just sit on leader today. However, if just BMC and Sky left at the end, Evans will try and get some seconds without using too much energy. No need to do anything else. They are the best timetrialers and plenty of days (weeks) left. Too steep for Nibali I think. He's blown before on the steepest stuff (although Giro win).

Wiggo drifting for GC ... getting a good bet again. He'll be a lot shorter after Monday!

Sorenson allegedly not in breakaway, why so short??

He is in breakaway according to reports.

Going to be a top finish this, Sky trying to ride the attacks out of the peloton

Where has Cadel's team gone?!?!

Sky immense!!!

I cant believe it HOD was going to post the 2 exact words!
Super riding from the whole team!

great stage, great work by the Sky team. Wiggins in yellow!!

He's a better TTer, better climber and has a better team but Evans is fav over Wiggo ..... explain:

its the unknown for Wiggins Evans has been there and done it and that counts for a lot.

Well Taaramae did a good job of hiding his form this season, pretty sick I didn't back him for top 10.

Taaramae rode well at Paris-Nice but was diagnosed with glandular fever soon afterwards, seems he is back to full health.

indeed but he looked really poor in the dauphine, surely a non trier?

surprised wiggo is still odds against after that. sky totally dominant, only crash/illness can stop him winning le tour