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Probably the most certain flat out stage of the tour. Got to check Cav is okay but he'll be fav. Usual Greipel, Goss, Veelers, Petacchi crowd. It will be difficult to make money!
Any inspiration chaps?!
Any inspiration chaps?!
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Unlucky not to pick up some of Veelers on Stage 4, HoD.
There is a Kittel vs Sagan market, which would seem like a gimmie unless the former is feeling a lot better? I will probably lay the plucky Sagan for Top 3 again. Cav's crash today means he just needs to finish consistently now for the Green jersey and he may steer clear of the extreme sharp end and concentrate on Top 10 finishes. Goss has been a let down for me. Out of the outsiders maybe Renshaw will get ignored by the market a bit. I'm already on Cav as I think his injuries will be fine and he'll be unlucky to get pranged twice in a row. Odds against with this line up is value to me. Difficult to make money though like you say! Perhaps Paddy Power will help us out again? I missed that the first time :) |
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Done Renshaw 80-1 with a quarter odds ew with simmering bookie. He fell today .... i hope he is okay!
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Cav has a good record on this stage
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Cant see past Cav for this, he's at his best when he feels slighted and the crash yesterday will give him the motivation to smash his rivals again today. Also going to do Goss top 3.
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Goss e/w for me
Surely he has to win on of these stages |
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According to Yates, Cav's problem from yesterday (apart from usual road rash) is a sore hand / finger - guess that could be a problem for a technical run-in like this. He's pretty durable though - just bounces straight up. In the Giro he got wiped out by Ferrari and won two days later. A lot of the sprinters went down with him yesterday - Renshaw, Farrar, Hutarovich, Haedo
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Even more bullish on Cav this morning. Can't have Sagan for top 3 at 3's either.
Goss has been a let down so far for me so not bothering today. This means he'll probably win :/ |
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Hard to see past Cav today. Might just try and make a few pennies on back/lay stuff.
They should offer 'who's in the break' odds. Would have guessed Simon today! |
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Just had a look at the finish on GooGoo Maps. The gradient is steep enough and long enough for a slogging, rather than ordinary, sprint. So I've had a penny on Sagan. May suit him better than most.
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^ did the same for the same reasons.
for those unaware you can get a lot of info on the TDF stages incl. Google Maps views @ steephill.tv |
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Good point. 2.8% for the last km .... not as steep as the World Champs in Denmark (that Cav won comfortably) but enough to give Sagan a bigger chance. Still think Cav but have my Renshaw ew bet too!
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While things are quiet, a general question. Am I imagining things, or have we had an unusually large number of pile-ups so far? And, if so, why? I would guess early tour enthusiasm, especially for the green - might explain the two crashes in the last three kilometres.
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I think it's a combination of reasons. The first week of the tour always feels nervy but on the flat stages in particular, the HTC train was pretty dominant the last few years and would have these flat stages organised pretty efficiently to fire Cav over the line. Now they aren't there this year there's a void where it's a bit more of a free-for-all. That's my theory anyway.
How there wasn't a crash the other day when Cav won I don't know. The last few Km they were going at a serious clip and there was a couple of nasty bottlenecks. |
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Good point. I recall HTC being always in the van last year and producing some textbook finishes (bet Cav misses Renshaw). Fingers crossed for this one!
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Heard a variety of reasons for yesterday. Crosswind (?!) Eisel said "Who caused that?" Farrar replied "F@&k it Bernie, it was you" According to Karsten Kroon.
Just tight and nervy. More road furniture (bollards etc) is a reason for some as well. And idiots with digital cameras who have no idea the effect they have if they make someone swerve even a few inches. Is Chavenel going to have another go for Yellow today, bug? Dull as yesterday atm .... looking forward to Saturday .... then we'll know how Brad is and whether my 25-1 is looking good. |
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Love the tour.But like watching paint dry @ present.
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Eisel was apparently trying to blame Goss but I think the consensus was that Eisel was at fault
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I'm not sure we've had any more crashes than usual - first week of the Tour is always bad. Last year the first week ended the chances of VDB, Wiggins, Vino, Brajkovic off the top of my head - and Contador crashed several times. The year before was that stage Cancellara et al neutralized the stage after literally half the peloton came down on a downhill
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Sticking with Goss today...but he didn't really look at the races y'day...and tactically inept.
We shall see... Agree with GB on crashes. |
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Can't believe Renshaw is 80-1!! He came 3rd in Intermediate sprint and finished like a train. Rabobank must be hungry for success too.
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Glad to see Sky a bit more organised today. Have been a bit concerned that Wiggo and Cav have been isolated. Best to have them both up the front and out of it.
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Think Renshaw is only 80-1 on here, can't see him winning and little liquidity, not sure it can be traded easily. Each way of course that's rather big! In the top 3 market on here he's under 10.
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What the hell, had a bit of Renshaw at 75 and left in a trade out lower down. You never know :)
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Farrell and Sagan are down in a crash.
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Wow thought I was going to get a 999-1 winner for a few seconds there
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results anyone?
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1. Andre Greipel (GER) LTB - 196.5km in 4h41'28"
2. Matt Goss (AUS) OGE 3. Juan José Haedo (ARG) STB 4. Mark Cavendish (GBR) SKY 5. Samuel Dumoulin (FRA) COF 6. Tom Veelers (NED) ARG 7. Oscar Freire (ESP) KAT 8. Alessandro Petacchi (ITA) LAM |
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thanks! cheers mate...
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Grepiel, Goss, Hudeo(sp?) then a photo between Cavendish and someone else. Sagan went down in a crash.
Got a little overconfident seeing Sky getting organised at the front but on the other hand, Sagan lay came in very luckily as that was more his type of finished then envisaged. Think Cav struggled to kick up the hill being with just EBH so far out. Possibly feeling it from yesterday. The guy who left out of the break was very unfortunate. A great effort from him! Hope he gets the combativeness award for the day. |