TdF Stage 4

yeah looks reasonable lay. with sky losing a rider yeserday they will leave cav alone to win this one and at 2.2 seems too short.
I am going for greipel @ 5.4 as his team should protect him through the wind and set him up for the win. i don't think he'll leave cav on his wheel again.
one for the sprinters it seems.

goss to beat sagan looks good bet, too raw for sprint finish i think 4/7 (1.57 back)

Not sure I can go against Cav but he is short. Thinking dutching him and Goss who was coming through strongly the day before yesterday and ran out of track. Maybe if Greenedge get their act together he can be closer and make a race of it. Not sure that Griepel warrants being that much shorter (happy to be corrected!)

The H2H is a good shout though as I think Sagan is just racing to pick up points here. Can't really see him troubling the top three at all. Will add in a lay of Sagan for that I think.

coverage now on itv 4, and odds on now for Cav, maybe due to no wind off the coast.

I've just managed to back Mouncoutie at 70 and lay at 20. Free money!

Going to be a sprint for sure. Is Kittel well? ... if so his price is massive! Otherwise hard to see past Greipel, Cav, Goss. Goss v Sagan looks a fair bet. Some big each way odds again for some decent sprinters: Dumoulin, Bozic, Hinault all 200+, Veelers 69.

Altogether, not as interesting a day as I had hoped. Might have to do some real work for a while and come back to it!

always good to get a back and lay at such varying odds. I want Sagan out of the top 3 also (3.6 av lay) Federer 3-0 seems to have made my day free now! as long as i don't get greedy!

can these 3 riders hold on to the end?

very unlikely. Sprinters stage nd very rare that a breakaway stays away.

ah OK thanks I'm watching on ITV4 dont know much about cycling

Given the profile...I've gone for Goss, but fully expecting the Bank of Cav to pay out again...

Been interesting to see if anyone is foolish enough to tow Cav to the the last 50m.

Greipel and Goss will tow him there .... but they may not want to!

I'd like to see them hang on

I'm either going to have a good day or a nightmare scenario of Griepel winning with Sagan 2nd or 3rd ahead of Goss!

Seems like the peloton are starting to get on top of the breakaway so should be an exciting finish. Only way I can see Cav losing is if he's compromised by a crash or boxed in somehow.

still over 4mins clear

This pattern happens all the time MrBaboon, breakaway successes are the exception rather than the rule in the TDF. Tis only a matter of time before they get swallowed up.

Best chance for a breakaway is later in the tour on a non-flat stage where the riders concerned have no material impact on the General Classification. In the first week, most teams aren't keen to effectively hand over the yellow jersey to a break.

hmmm under 2mins now

Wonder if Moncoutie is going to go full beans on the little bump at 10k out?

Catching very quickly now. Sagan anyone?!

It's coming down rapidly, 1'14" now. They'll have this reeled in before 7-10km to go.

do the 3 riders know they are 1 min ahead?

Yes, they'll have team radio's. One of them will probably try to go again at the death but today it's a nailed on sprint finish.

Balls, Cav down in the crash. Sagan somehow survives! Relying on Goss now.

man betfair were late on suspending that!!

What was the 1,2,3?

greipel
petacchi
sagan ??

3rd veleers

3rd Veelers
4th Goss
5th Sagan

Jesus I'm having no luck this year at all

petacchi legs gone

he would kill them 5-6 years ago

Griepel, Petacchi, Veelers, Goss and Sagan.

The latter two left it far too late again.

Well done HoD if he got on Veelers. I was looking at Petacchi earlier who was around 50-1 for the win but liquidity in the Top 3 market outside the usual suspects didn't look great. Didn't fancy him much either to be honest. He's getting on a bit.

Think Cav would have rinsed that finish save the crash but c'est la vie.

i had alos massive green on petacchi

A massive profit of 17p on the day :D partly because ITV commentary suggested that Cavendish was mistakenly identified in the crash for a few seconds and I took some of him at 3s forgetting that my stream was miles behind! One lives and learns!

Veelers would have been nice but I went for the wrong pony! Laying Cav and Moncoutie has meant another profit. I'm doing okay this year!!

was on greipel 4/1ew - bet to nothing