Cycling WC road races

Well it's certainly not any good for the Manx Missile, that's quite clear. SP.

Cav did outsprint Gilbert on a stiff finish in the Tour(stage 5, I think). If it's a bunch finish, Cav still has to be the fav.

I think they'll take Cav out of the equation. I'm sure a break will end up at the finish.

I'd love to see Cancellara power away from them going on to the last circuit, though it's doubtful considering his form.

EBH & Goss for me.

Claret85, both good selections. However, the Manx Missile won't have a suitable lead out, and if you were watching recently the Tour of Britain, he couldn't go with his own lead-out man Renshaw in the 5th stage which Renshaw won. He has lacked a bit of zip recently and given he won't have a reliable lead-out, and the long inclined finish, he just isn't advantaged, and I don't see him figuring. If it's a bunch sprint and he is favourite than I would question who has made him favourite, given the evidence of late. From memory, I have never seen him win a finish of this kind, and to think he will do so on Sunday, after a long season of riding, is more wishful thinking than evidenced-based reality, imo.

I think given how he dropped his crown in the time-trial, Cancellara won't be powering away anytime soon, and so one for the fans there, of which I am not one, I hold loyalty to T. Martin.

Cheers,
SP

Claret85 you are right on, this finish reminded me of stage 5 in the tour.

Cav can win this. Renshaw winning stage 5 of the ToB was the plan - it wasn't a case of him being out sprinted. Cav also won 2 stages of the ToB by clear margins (admittedly against no high caliber sprinting competition). I'd also say Geraint Thomas is a more than reliable lead-out (he actually inadvertently led-out Cav on Stage 5 of the Tour) and Team GB have a strong team, all riding for Cav, which can control the inevitable attacks in the last few laps.

I expect the race to end in a bunch sprint like the U23 Men's race did today and I also expect Cav to be in the mix at the finish line.

I think you better go back to the tape on that one Dope, and the interview, Renshaw was under clear instruction to lead out Cav, he put two and a half bicycle lengths into Cav through the final turn which wasn't the plan, and Cav couldn't go with him after that. Moreover, stage 5 of the Tour was only 165 kms, whilst here in Copenhagen he'll be doing 100 kms more, and climbing nearly twice as much vertical. Nevertheless, when asked about his stage 5 win in the Tour, Cav answered; "That was hard...!" he then went to say that at least it meant he was in good form. We're now way past the end of the trade team season, and he has been flat at the Tour of Briatin, imo. Hardly a good sign of form going into a race which decides who gets to wear the rainbow jersey.

I'm not entirely convinced this will even be a bunch sprint given how much effort these guys are going to be putting-in to hurt each other, in very much a battle of attrition - that's what the Champs are all about... attrition through repetition, and tightening the screws tighter and tighter.

Cheers,
SP

Cav gifted the win to Renshaw.  Also an amazing win in the final stage. Cav's in great form.

I'd have major doubts about Cav's form. Hopeless in the Vuelta, and Tour of Britain to Worlds is a massive step up in class

The finish would be manageable for him on top form. 500m @ 5-6% - it's still basically a sprint. If it was the middle of July he'd be 3-1

FFS, why still no markets for women's race? Just phoned them, let's see how long it will take them to put up a list

"In the last three years I’ve given him a lot of victories and so it’s great to see him help me win a stage,” Renshaw said during the stage winner’s press conference. “That's the best part of HTC and Highroad, we’ve always shared the victories around, and that’s why we won so much"

This interview?

Can't believe we have no market for the Womens RR. Live TV coverage of the whole race on multiple channels. They had a market the last few years

Nope, not that one Dope, no that one at all. Supposing that it even exists, since you haven't provided a link, it'll likely be the one where he's had time to think about what to say to be gracious and modest, and all those things a well brought-up person has the focus to take into account, when the adrenalin has subsided and he is no longer in the moment, or not speaking to people which expect him to say something along these lines, I would suggest. I mean, can you actually imagine he would admit to his true feelings? Saying that he was better than the world's fastest sprinter because Cav is not in form? How would that go over for the business-side of things, admitting such a fact under the careful gaze of the world's assembled media?

Actually, come to think of it, I have seen that one, that's the one you've taken out of context since it looks more like this, in truth:

Renshaw paid tribute to the mateship at HTC-Highroad.

"I dare say he (Cavendish) wasn't giving it 110 percent, but that's bike racing," he said.

"There's a lot of times when I've given him victories, so it's great to help me find a stage win."

"That's been the best part of HTC, because we share the wins around, and I think that's why we win so many races. He's been a good friend over the years and he understands the decision I've taken for next year."

Cheers,
SP

The 2011 Elite Men's Road Race at the UCI Road World Championships, Copenhagen.

The riders will do 17 laps of a 14 km course plus the 28 km start from the Copenhagen City Hall, and the route will have it's fair share of hills, with the riders climbing 105 metres in altitude on each lap, the highest climb being 59 meters above sea level, and the lowest at 17 metres above sea level. It is a course which upon study hasn't been designed with sprinters in mind as a tricky right-hander sets up a long run-in to a punchy finish, which may prove to be too much for the sprinters after a battle of attrition over 266 kilometres. This is supported by Holland's coach, Leon van Vliet, who didn't select top sprinter Theo Bos, but instead chose mostly all-rounders and climbers. The Worlds courses are about repetition and attrition, and the likely outcome is that the peloton will be gradually thinned-down to some 30 riders by the final few laps - as the Australian team will look to control the pace of the race early on, minus in-form sprinter Mark Renshaw who was controversially not chosen for the Aussie team. It is a hillier course than Zolder, which in 2002 was seen as the last true course suited for sprinters (which a proven sprinter did win with Mario Cipollini), and the incline to the finish on Geels Bakke, or simply Geels Hill on Kongevejen, looks slightly too long of a climb for a sprinter such as the Manx Missile, and the course just may be too demanding and too aggressive overall.

Phillipe Gilbert of Belgium is the favourite and there's many reasons for this, having had an amazing year. Firstly, he is a specialist of this type of circuit-type course, and this year has won the first stage of the Tour de France and fought hard in some of the latter stages whilst also being the winner of three classics prior: the Amstel Gold, Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. But that's not all, over the 16 lap 201 km Quebec Grand Prix (World Tour race) he negotiated a tricky uphill finish to win, and also secure his place as the leader of the World Tour standings, even though he only needed to finish fourth or fifth to gain the six points necessary. He is also consistent, but would prefer a climb to come earlier in the finish to set-up his win. He had this in Geelong - Australia at last years Champs, but unfavourable wind for a solo breakaway scuppered his chances and he faded to finish in 18th place.

Gilbert's team-mate in Geelong was a rider by the name of Greg Van Avermaet, who finished 5th after riding a more conservative race, and he will line-up for Belgium this year, also. Whilst he hasn't had the impressive results of Gilbert so far in his career, he is a slightly younger version of him, and this year he regained Belgium's dominance in the Tour de Wallonie, a multi-day outside of category event in Belgium. He was also second overall in the Tour of Belgium and acquitted himself well at the more recent Tour of Spain. @ 100/1 he will give himself every chance to win, should other riders be concentrating on heavily marking Gilbert, and is deserving of an e/w bet only as he may be working for Gilbert.

Whilst rain is not forecast, this is Copenhagen and it would serve us well to factor in the chance of rain arriving, along with some wind. If there's wind on the finish a breakaway rider will be disadvantaged, however wind and rain will hold no fear for expert cyclo-cross rider and tough-as-nails Dutchman, Lars Boom, who is the most impressive in-form rider in the field, winning two stages of the recent Tour of Britain, before winning the race overall. He is impressively advantaged in this field by his capability of winning in either a breakaway or with the bunch, and will have his team-mate Poels to deflect some attention or offer assistance by closing down attacks. He will welcome difficult, inclement road conditions, and @ 80/1 he presents as a real tough contender or "bar-room brawler"-type, who should not be overlooked on a win basis. Top pick.

Since such events often throw-up surprises, it wouldn’t be a shock if either of these two were to be thereabouts on Sunday at big prices. Wouter Poels has a good dynamic kick for such a punchy finish although he may have more of a supportive role for his team-mate Boom, nevertheless if Boom is not feeling good then Poels has what it takes to win. Lastly British cyclist Daniel Martin, is another rider who would quietly welcome wind and rain, and who also is giving indication he is the "bar-room brawler" style rider. He won the Tour of Poland in 2010, and this year came runner-up before going to the Vuelta and winning a tough mountain-summit finish. He is a rider to be taken seriously, but would perhaps prefer a breakaway situation to develop for himself for him to have the best chance.

Betting suggestions:

Greg Van Avermaet: 100-1 (e/w) Paddy Power, Bet 365
Lars Boom: 80-1 (win only) Sportingbet
Wouter Poels: 350-1 Bet 365
Daniel Martin: 500-1 Paddy Power

Cheers,
SP

With maximum altitude 59m above sea level this isn't a hilly stage in my book, but it does look like it could get messy. Energy could easily be wasted by following attacks on the many small kicks throughout the race. Whilst the peloton is going to be less organized than in the grand tours (since the riders aren't grouped in their usual teams) I can't have a successful breakaway from such a competitive field. For me it's a bunch finish.
The finishing slope is highly significant. I don't see it suiting Cav at all as I think his kick will be blunted. Also, as you indicated earlier SP, the team GB entry list has some well known and famous names but no obvious lead out man. I can't have him at all. As for choosing my bet I'm going to have to sleep on it and hope for divine inspiration as it's a very tough one to call.
ps are you an insomniac SP? It must be difficult watching events on this side of the world live.

Hey red and white, some interesting thoughts added to the mix. Just a query though, if the peloton is less organized wouldn't that favour a breakaway since they may be looking at each other to see who'll chase it down? In any csae; I'm taking the opposing view and seeing a breakaway on account of one finally being well-timed. So far, in the under23 race and the women's race today especially, the Canadian girl was looking good off the front by herself but just timed it too early and didn't have the strength to really dig down and stay clear, not that close to the finish admittedly. In the former race, I think there were two lads off the front who were there for multiple laps before one Eritrean rider made the gap dragging with him the peloton, on just approaching that final turn.

What I like about Lars Boom is with him you have a rider, who if feeling good, has the strength and stamina to stay away after a well-timed effort, perhaps for even a lap and a quarter, and he is in top form so I can't really understand the prices. But get a few good riders into a breakaway from already an elite group, even just a few who combine together well, and it makes the likelihood of a breakaway much easier to envision and indeed succeed with one lap to go -- hope Boom is in it!

On the issue of sleep, yeah it doesn't help that the time difference is so messed-up, but it's mostly on the weekend and I don't mind the house when it's this quiet. I'm not an insomniac though, just adjust my sleeping clock around to suit sporting events in Europe, when I can.

Cheers,
SP

I'd given consideration to a breakaway SP. I was trying to offer a balanced view in a single sentence so presented the  case for a breakaway, then gave my opinion against it. If this was a stage in the Tour I'd say without any doubt it was 'flat' and a certainty for a bunch finish. For tomorrow I'm 90% certain. I think there are a couple of strong teams who will haul back a breakaway before the finish. If the strong breakaway you're hoping arises I'll bet in running.

I consider a bunch sprint most likely, but there is as well a chance of a Varese type finish, where Ballan escaped a few k from home and indecision of pursuiters made him survive.

Few outsiders for me:

100/1  Greg Van Avermaet
100/1  Romain Feillu
500/1  Nick Nuyens
500/1  Konstantin Sivtsov
500/1  Mikhail Ignatiev
1000/1 Julian Dean
1000/1 Gediminas Bagdonas

All each way. Prob be 1st Hushovd 2nd Gilbert 3rd Cav but Some of the odds are huge though, and I'm tempted to back a a few more...

Dan Martin is Irish and the finish is not hard enough for him.

Poels, again finish isn't hard enough, 14% and not 4.1% and he'd he one of the favourites. No chance tomorrow.

I think Greg Van Avermaet is outclassed in this field but Lars Boom is a good bet, good call.

Love Gilbert and an attack from him is inevitable but I don't rate his chances, same with Sagan, I rate his chances even less for outright victory.

I see the winner being Cav, EBH or Thor. I like Rojas for Top 3 and the only riders over 100-1 I like are Feillu and Visconti. If I knew the Italians were riding for Viviani I'd like him too but don't think they are.

If it is a bunch sprint Cav could be as low as 2 - he's usually lower in the tour. He doesn't represent value at 6.2 though but I think he can be got higher if there is a sustained breakaway at some point.

I'm not going to predict who wins though ;-)

Greipel ?

not sure, but I think the German's are going for Kittel in a sprint finish

Dope, D. Martin's heritage has got nothing to do with it and you know it, however on results he clearly needs it steeper, but I've observed from him that he has this other style of riding he may look to experiment with and develop. Decent climbers with his style are worthy of consideration in such an event, for the simple fact that they enjoy to suffer, and if it comes down to a breakaway he strikes me as someone who may be value to have ante-post. Same thing with Poels, and I guess my thoughts there in addition, are that if he goes to close down a breakaway for Boom and finds himself in it up to his ears, he'll give an honest account of himself. He'd be shorter over hillier, but at those odds I won't be ignoring his chances.

red and white; on further reflection I can see that now, thanks for clearing it up, my best wishes for your in-play selections.

Should be a cracker with tricky road conditions giving the race that little bit more character. Bring on the rain and wind, oh flat Copenhagen, you lover of bikes and riding! ...and Champs in this instance!

Cheers,
SP

Could win: Gilbert, Boassen Hagen, Kittel

Outsiders: Viviani, Visconte, Offredo, Goss, Rojas Gil   

Against: Cavendish, Bennati, Sagan, Cancellara, Freire Gomez

Good looking race but no bets till one circuit out.

After sleeping on it I'm confident there won't be a successful breakaway so for me it's down to the sprinters. It's difficult to look at a list of individuals who are all being removed from the comfort zone of their pro team. I think Cav will suffer most from this. His new team mates can keep a healthy pace through most of the race to limit breakaway damage, but as Cav is clear favourite they may need to do too much work and I don't see them finishing the job off. I started looking for the team most able to give a strong sprinter protection throughout the race without having to worry about looking after one of the favourites. I want a team able to go flat out on the last circuit to deliver their man well up the finishing slope. I'm looking for a nation capable of engaging in highly organized lightning warfare. I want panzerwagen Tony Martin and the incredible hulk Bert Grabsch (what gear was he using in the time trial???). Deutschland über alles! As for the winner I'll take the experience and Tour de France form of André Greipel ahead of the promising Kittel.

Best value for me

Bennati @ 30+ : Italian leader, form in vuelta was good and improving as the race went on, has been aiming solely at this race for the last 6 months
Farrar @ 50+ : one of the 2nd tier sprinters behind Cav but proven in long 1 day races, vuelta ended by bad crash although nothing broken
Gilbert @ 6+ : simply the best 1 day rider in the world and pretty fast on a ramp finish after 260kms if he waits. If he doesn't wait could be a good trade in running

GL all

I'm surprised Greg Henderson from Team New Zealand is available at 400+ here - surely the profile of the finish suits a rider like Henderson?

Be really nice to see Dan Martin do something. However, the plan for Team Ireland is to get in the breaks, and ride for luck. If anyone can do this it's Roche who is a very good race reader. He'd have a decent sprint if he got in a breakaway with the right personnel.

Superb ride from GB. Millar, Wiggins, Stannard.

Magnificent job from Cavendish to finish it off - was well back coming into the final 750m.

Excellent!

what a brilliant finisher he is. Very well deserved. The GB team did so well yet Cav had to make the win himself in the last meters.

Cav! Legend, wonder what the SPOTY market is doing right now.

Calling DM British is like me calling one of your aussie riders a Kiwi, SP.

Brilliant Cav. Well done rest of GB team. GB top cycling nation now

yeah surely he can get the Spoty this time if a campaign builds

The last british winner of this race won SPOTY. Well done Cav. I reckon he just became the highest paid rider in the peloton

Fair play to Cav backers, once I realized it'd be a bunch sprint I went with you red and white and backed Greipel. Work nearly set him free after some good work early by the German team. Unfortunate about the crash splitting things and leaving so many good riders out of it. I think most of us know how good the British are on the track, but to control things so well for so long was really worth admiring. Wiggins paying back some Karma points after letting Froome down a little in the Vuelta perhaps, proving he can be team-orientated and riding for the Union Jack. Really enjoyed the Aussies serving it up to you guys near the finish, O'Grady marshalling his troops in true leadership fashion, what a statesman! Heroic ride by Bak, thought that another Lars could something similar, but not disgraced to finish strongly. Boom has all the requirements to win one of these away from the mud and dirt, and I've become a real fan, now.

hippie, nice aftertiming mate, didn't disappoint as usual. You'd get a good gig as a poppinjay character in a muppet show. Ha-ha!

Dope, not sure I'm willing to accept that, we've got the tradition of the ANZAC spirit to fall back upon, and what with how the Wallabies got beat by the Irish in the World Cup recently, we may soon start cheering for the All Blacks to win old Bill on home soil. Your point is nevertheless acknowledged, you guys are all weird about all that history stuff. Hope you came out well with Cav, I'm sure you did. From what I know about SPOTY is that you guys love the mug punter come good on the world sporting stage story, and in Clarke you have a smoking and drinking knockabout character which you seem to identify with - and on that basis I wouldn't be looking past his favouritism to win, especially since many might think it's a trophy long overdue.

Cheers,
SP

didn't see the whole race switching with F1, saw Thor on last lap offered @300, what had happened to him pls?

Thor was at the back of the peloton after collecting food from the feed zone and a crash blocked the road and caused a split. He was on the wrong side, all 3 other Norway riders were on the right side and with no race radio they didn't know Thor was caught out until it was too late so they rode for EBH.

There was a big pile up bb66 which left a third of the field a minute behind and not really anybody to chase with. Thor was the only big favourite with them

@stinkingprick, still using a hundred words when one will do eh?

Since when has congratulations been aftertiming?

Stick to plagiarising cycling forums, "guru"

thx, guys

Awesome race, makes you proud to be British. Chris Boardman said there has never been a world champ road race controlled like that by one team. I can believe it. I picked up EW on Greipel. Shame he lost his strongest team mate so early due to the crash but it didn't affect the result. I wasn't impressed by the Australians gathering like a gang of thieves at the end to steal what Britain had worked so hard for. I'm glad they were foiled. I thought the British would be too tired at the end and the slope would do for Cav. A remarkable win. Best ever.

hippie - still sticking to name calling I see, you just never disappoint, whether it's name-calling or aftertiming, or attempting to discredit.

The "sbi" write-up was mine, that's me Dan, thanks. Ian was very good to post my writing, so no plaigiarising there I'm afraid, pity things didn't work out for all of us, though. Please contact him to confirm that author Dan and SwingingPick is one and the same person, if you need convincing. Keep trying, mate, you'll land one, some day.

Probably the lamest thing on the forum is the humble little aftertimer. My write-up on the other hand was on an influentcial sportsbetting blog, thanks. Ha-ha! Ohe dear, hippie, head-shaking stuff from you, yet again.

red and white - it's in our convict nature, we still identify with that kind of behaviour, I guess. Hehe!

Cheers,
SP

Writing that article isn't anything to be proud of, for a guest writer 'who specialises in betting on Cycling' the advice was poor.

Do you remember Stage 2 of La Vuelta, where Sutton won - I'm sure you do because you tipped him. Well that finish had a harder climb than Copenhagen (30m rise in last 500m of road compared to 20m yesterday). I was expecting you to tip Sutton for yesterday actually.

The profile for Copenhagen made it look a lot harder than it was because the vertical scale was in 10s of meters and not 100s of meters like you get in the grand tour profiles.

Dope - of course in hindsight it was poor advice as the tips didn't make any money for those that followed them. I've been doing very well in the cycling ever since the Tour ended, my Vuelta futures would be enough to set me up for the start of the next season of cycling, and even in the Champs time-trial I had a solid win on T. Martin -- so riding a winning high in cycling bets, I thought I could pay back Ian (and his followers) after some very good golf tipping recently, which he had furnished the forum and which he posts on his blog at "sbi". He has become a very inspirational punter for me over my short time on the golf forum, and even though I wouldn't have made a stack of money on the tips myself, I was hoping others would. If I wasn't so in awe at how seriously he takes this punting caper, things might have gone differently, but I stand by my analysis because if I had been providing such tips for a while (actually I have, at least on here) then everyone who would have been following them would be stacks of money ahead by now, this being the first loss in a lot of races, indeed. I can state that, because unlike some I actually post my bets prior to the races starting.

It was unlucky that Greg Van Avermaet was caught-up in the crash, D. Martin did try his hand at a breakaway if you recall at about two laps to go, and Lars Boom was there to race, finishing 29th, and improving on his 41st place in Geelong. Wouter Poels didn't do much but at such a price there was going to be at least one who wouldn't make a showing throughout the race.

The fact is that at the end of the day, I stand by my analysis; it was a long-range forecast and it was initially full of value and excitement. Had it come in pursuit of countless bets and analysis prior, those followers of them would have thought... he finally got one wrong!

When you provide such suggestions you don't have the option of changing it, in-play, like a trader might do. In fact, some of the shrewd punters could have layed-off some of the dramatic shortening in the Boom price, but I didn't do that, and would not have taken into account that others might have chosen to do so, either. Also, if Bak was joined by Boom and say one other like Hoogerland, then we might have seen a different race and a breakaway succeed, but I'm not making excuses - Boom was the best in-form rider in the race, and he didn't disgrace himself, and others thought so also as he shortened from 150 to 67 right across the board. One bookie put him up at 24-1 prior to the race, and that caused a little smile on my face, because that was the price I would have put up at the start.

If you recall, and if you don't the thread is still there, I initially thought Sutton's price in his stage win of the Tour should have been 9-1, imagine how much the bookies would have saved if they followed me, instead of pricing him up at over 50-1 in some cases.

You know, it's easy to find fault and talk people down when one bet goes wrong, but to actually have the courage to furnish a forum with your view, and then actually take the time to correspond with someone who is basically saying your advice was poor, or in the case of hippie, aftertiming -- shows that I am a better person than both of you combined, and please understand that whilst I don't use the "block" function on the forum, you have now been placed on my Ignore List, thanks!

Cheers,
SP

SO YEAH, I'M VERY PROUD OF IT, THANKS. SP.

Don't let them wind you up SP. Put your head above the parapet on here and it may well get shot off if you call it wrong. It's only metaphorical, fortunately, so you live to bet another day. The fact that these folk upset you proves you're expressing honest opinions (unless you're a genius and I wont allow that after you tipped a break away he he). For me the whole point of threads such as this is to read other opinions before the race. It's up to the reader to weigh them up and decide to use or ignore. This is about fortune telling rather than history. Those who only express their opinions after the fact are at best irrelevant and at worst a royal pain in the backside if they hurl abuse.
ps enjoyed your comment about the convicts!

red and white - thanks mate, very nice of you to take the time and say those things, really appreciate it. I agree, wholeheartedly, the forum can be such an extra helpful tool to take into account, and one can find some really interesting information which isn't widely available elsewhere, and which is - as you say - an exercise of looking into a crystal ball rather than forming a historical narrative. I hadn't looked at it so closely, so thanks for crystallizing it for me and other readers. And of course it's up to people to accept or reject certain opinions. Pity that some just don't understand that, and would prefer to be annoying, instead.

You set the convict comment up for me so inspiringly that I just had to build on it, glad you enjoyed it and so thanks for the bricks.

Cheers,
SP