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Backed him e/w decent prices, any thoughts?
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Depends on what price you got. If you got the each way at 8/1, you are on a great bet (as am i). His price (4/1 or so) now is correct.Nnot sure if he has the speed to do Kiplagat but he will be there or thereabouts.
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6/1
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Both Laalou and Kiprop were massively overpriced when the market first opened. I'm on both. Might green up for two free bets before the final as although Kiplagat is the rightful fav the total disrespect to the current Olympic champ and a guy who hasn't lost a 1500 race all year is staggering.
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I cannot be having Kiprop here. He has done very little since winning the Olympics in 2008. The way that Kiplagat destroyed him in the Kenyan champs at altitude says a lot. Kiprop has lost well to both Kiplagat and Laalou a couple of times each this summer. He can also be a poor tactical runner. The market opened with him around 9/2 (open to correction on this price) and Laalou at 8/1 and I would have been reversing those prices at least (made Laalou 7/2).
I'm on Laalou at 8/1 too. He has a real chance but I don't know if he has the pure kick to win in a championship race of this calibre. He will stay on and medal for sure. I guess Kiplagat and Laalou will stroll through the semis too and Kiplagat will drift slightly again. If he does, I will be topping up. Medal dangers in Willis, Baala (complete enigma) and the Ethiopians. |
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Kiprop is an interesting one. I agree that he hasn't done a huge amount since his Olympic triumph but the talent is still there, he's just a brainless racer at times. A lot of his losses this year has seen him finish like a train but he got in such a bad position with 250 to go that he had no chance of catching the winner. If he gets a clue then I still think he's a serious threat.
But overall I do agree with pwhite that Laalou is the main danger to Kiplagat. How he was priced at 8/1 I'll never know. I'm not sure how you can say he doesn't have a kick though. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JLwtse9oJQ He puts some serious daylight between him and the others in the last 200m here and that's with him easing down in the last 30-40m. Notice how fast Kiprop is finishing too, if he'd been in touch with 200 to go who who's what would have happened. I'm hoping Laalou and Kiprop cruise the semis and I'll probably green out and enjoy would has the potential to be an awesome race. |
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I'm not saying he isn't fast but pure sprinting wise, He is not in the same calibre as Kiplagat. In that race he kicks twice (i think, hard to tell as he is so far ahead!). He kicks at 220 or so to go to make it a long run for home and then I guess again at 100. He never hits the top speeds others are capable of, espeically in a slower, non paced race. Don't get me wrong, he's got a great chance. I'm just pretty sweet on Kiplagat here.
You will certainly be able to green up big on Laalou after the semis. In my opinion, all 3 favs will qualify easily but Laalou will make the effort tto win his semi (as he did the heat). The market loves stuff like that. He could go off 2/1 - 5/2 for the final. |
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Yeah, that's what I'm banking on. A guy dominating a semi means nothing in a final but the market seams to love it. I do agree with you that Kiplagat is the man, he's been awesome and his domination at the Kenyan trials was spectacular. But Laalou at 8/1 was simply outrageous for a guy as good as him. A nice big green and then sit back and watch the action, hoping for a great race.
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Laalou out???!!!! I cannot believe that. PEDs are amazing things.
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Haha, what an idiot. He is Moroccan and they do have a drug history so maybe he's been off the dope since the new blood testing regime has come out. A cretin. Ah well.
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Market over reating to Kiprop winning the heat. Kiplagat same price now as pre semi final.
I have my position on him now and happy with it. Would have liked Laalou there too though. |
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Yep, I'm loving the Kiprop over reaction. I'm glad I have him onside though as I think he could surprise a few people. Laalou is now officially a b*llend but thing should still work out ok.
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I'd be greening on Kiprop if i was in your position. I do not have him backed.
Laalou was always a b*llend, just a b*llend that should have won me money! |
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I am greening out on my Kiprop position. Market has gone a bit loopy after the semis. Kiplagat has been quite coy in the rounds so far imo, just getting through, staying out of trouble. In the final it's game time and Kiprop will probably have a mare as he likes to mince about in big race for some reason. Laalou has spoilt things though, I was looking at a really nice green before the final but now it's rather more modest. Ho hum.
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