MY MATHS SAYS JESSICA ENNIS CANNOT WIN HEPTAHLON

how do you know?  I cant get any stats on the personal bests for any athletes,but have big liability on ennis?

perhaps you should take a look there http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/biographies/country=GBR/athcode=194706/index.html

Cant understand the prices Chernova should be 1.1 IMO with Ennis only leading by 23 points after day 1. Chernova has to balls up badly in 1 or more events basically

Giving Ennis the 1500m by 2/3 seconds over Chernova, even though Chernova has a better PB, because of recent 1500m form, just does not give her anywhere near enough for Javelin and Long Jump heavily favouring Chernova.

In javelin Chernova looks a 5-10m fav with very little doubt Ennis is just awful in this
Long Jump Chernova looks 30cm in front on average performance

Shes leading by 151 points.  Just having a look at the pair of them myself.  I'll see if I agree but Ennis is a proven champion and Chernova has not performed well at major champs before this event.

The decathlon came down to bottle and experience in the end.

"Ennis only leading by 23 points after day 1"

Ennis is 151 points clear, hence the market prices.

OOPS yes 151 sorry I was just looking at the last event when I wrote that

But The Javelin gives Chernova about 150 points back
Long Jump is about 100 points
3 seconds to Ennis in 1500m is 50 points (and I dont think that is certain she will beat Chernova)

Even accounting for my huge post error this is Chernovas to lose...

Ennis basically needs to beat Chernova by 7 seconds in 1500m on all known form

If think Ennis can do better in Javelin you are probably clutching at straws

Maybe 1.1 is a bit low maybe Chernova 1.2 as no distances/injuries/bad performances are not out of the question...

i'll take a guess you're not an odds compiler for a living

I'll take it youve not bet on Chernova...

i have actually but i wouldn't have at 1.1 or 1.2

you might want to review your thoughts on the 1500m too

Well thats my opinion of where Chernovas price should, be between 1.1 and 1.2 what price do you think she should be and why?

Chernovas 1500m PB is better than Ennis I know - its possible she could beat Ennis in all 3 events

Elise you have to come up with solid facts or belief/knowledge that Ennis has greatly improved in 1 or mor edisiplines - this seasons form suggests not in any of the 3 events left

http://www.ergorej.net/daegu2011/women_speculate.php?l=eng

This was posted elsewhere, it works out heptathlon scores for various marks. It has Jessica Ennis winning by 3 points, based on their best performance in heptathlons in recent years.

Giving Chernova 20cm in the long jump and 6 metres in the javelin and Ennis 2 secs in the 800m then Chernova wins by 1 point.
Comes down to whether Chernova has the bottle no nail a big long jump or javelin throw imo.  Chernovas SB/PB of 6.82 would have actually won her the gold medal in the long jump.  Big ask to get close to that.  In the the javelin I think you can safely put Ennis on 44-46.  Chernova I'd put on 48-52.  Again her PB of 54 looks a tall order and a possible one off like the long jump.  I'm not getting involved.  Good luck

Didnt see anywhere's post but only 4 points difference.  Ennis is a proven winner and I think I'd make her the marginal fave myself because of that

Chernovas 2 years younger - if anyones gonna improve/get near there best, for a major championships, its probably her.

Long jump difference of only 16cms to Chernova looks highly favourable to Ennis, 6.7 Javelin to Chernova about right. 1500m I'm unsure of but I think Ennis will narrowly win.

Just thought I'd point out it's EIGHThundred metres not 1500m which Desertheat doesn't seem to see, event though Elise subtley pointed it out!

However I have to put Chernova @ 1.45-1.55 favourite. SO risky expecting Ennis to do a near PB on her Javelin (as we all know Very weak for her) and if she doesn't get close to her PB I think it hands the gold to the Russian

Chaps,if they both equalled their PB's,my calculations show Ennis would lose by 130 points.
- 30  800 m
- 146 Javelin
- 105 Long jump
I'm still backing the Champ for having been there and done it though

now is the time to back chernova @2.5 ish, she will take at least 120 points off ennis in the javelin, maybe 150

Looks like shes blown it there..Couldnt get 40m in the Jav..Needs to blitz then in the 800m..time will tell but she has a mountain to climb

Also whats the odds on Dean Macey being able to fit a whole apple in that fat mouth of his..Long odds on no doubt.

i make it she'd need about 8-9 secs over chernova so unless chernova packs up for a **** half way round you'd think she has zero chance

My maths are never wrong - easiest money of the year

given when you made that post meat loaf i think it was a good call

the risk was always 3 fails or just one avg throw from chenova in the jav, once she nailed the 2nd one it was all over

even if ennis had thrown at her best after that she would be struggling to win

Good Post Meatloaf. Is it just me, but the russian seems a better athlete. Dont think ennis has messed up too many events, apart from the javelin.

Nice tip Meatloaf.

well done

I actually blame Channel 4 for trying to make out she was virtually certain of winning gold. Ennis best day was always going to be the first day and Chernova's best day was always going to be her second day. If it was on BBC they would probably have had a more balanced view instead of the T4 presenters. Anyhow it helped the price I suppose!

v interesting thread.

I wish I had read this yesterday

I had a nice win on the back of reading this thread. The case for laying Ennis seemed very convincing.

Hope it does not come across as ungrateful but just a few things.

In the technical events like the long jump especially, where the Russian excells, its not as easy to reach your personal best form as it is for Ennis to record close to her best times in the sprints. You only have three attempts in the long jump and mostly your going to play very safe on the first go. So you have only really two chances to get close to your personal best. And to get close to your pb a lot of things must go right. I would argue the range of distance the Russian will record in the long jump is very wide. On the other hand its a lot easier to estimate what times Ennis will record in the sprint events she excells in. The range of times she records will be quite small.

Dont wish to sound unappreciative of being tipped a winner but i dont think the overall result was so straight forward.