Vuelta a España 2011.

Waiting for the market to settle!!!

I never bet on the Vuelta any more....as my record is frankly appalling...but......

my bets:
Anton 7/2 vc bet win outright
Scarponi 8.6 to win

Geox top team 2.4
Sagan Green jersey 2.8

G'day gents, trust you are all well. Cadel got his public showing down the main street of Melbourne to cheering fans and national coverage, after his Tour win, but still no public holiday date locked-in. Hehe!

Using AUD $ value here.

Nibali: Has Sagan to rely on in the mountains, where he is more than able to prod and tail when necessary. Proven performer, last year's winner of this race,
I can't believe he isn't favourite, making his price value and a more than suitable back option. Can't have Sagan now as he's in this race to support Nibali.

Anton: I agree that there's a question mark over him handling the entire 3 weeks, but he was 45 seconds ahead of Nibali last year before crashing out. He'll
be big in the Basque country, but no way he should be favourite given the question marks. I'll lay him for now.

Jurgen van den Broeck: Is a dark horse from Belgium, but not to my liking at around 9-1, should be 14-1 and then some.

Kruijswijk: A young gun with some good results he's way too short at 19-1. Should be more like 49-1 in keeping with daniel martin who'll he compete against
for the young rider classification. Again, the liquidity question, but an obvious and confident lay for me.

Scarponi: He could claim the top spot in the world this year, so that says a lot, but you have to be a fan to back and I'm not. Excellent climber, I
wouldn't be confident to lay him.

Rodriguez: We saw how well cadel prepared for winning the Tour in the ITT, and this guy will lose a stack of time in the ITT, so second favourite is very
much over realistic. An obvious and confident lay, but due to lack of liquidity in the market the spread is just too much to get into.

Daniel Martin: This kid has been given the green light to go for stage wins and is hoping for a top-10 finish, he won't likely win, though. Can climb and
won the Tour of Poland recently, after winning it the previous year. I picked him up 89-1 and he's already done me proud as he's now 49-1 and still value
imo. I'd project his price to come down even further, perhaps 25.0-38.0, bu there's the liquidity question to be answered here.

Menchov: No doubt a proven performer, and he'll have his fans, but getting a bit old now for three weeks hard work and I won't have him, bu that's not to
say he can't win, he might just find something special and go on with it.

Kloden: Ready to retire from the sport soon, I'd imagine. Still an injury cloud over him after after crashing in the Tour. At 11-1 and with more liquidity
I would lay him.

Wiggins: I got some early interest money at 14-1, he is now 7-1. Will have the British media talking him up so expect plenty of liquidity here at least,
I'd imagine. Might sound rough, but here's my theory: Crashing out of the Tour was a blessing in disguise because it was always going to be tough for him to
compete against Cadel, who had the Tour win dialled-in, and so has had time to rest and recover while undoubtedly sitting on his training bike in the lounge
room to keep the legs ticking over. Is going to be 2 minutes better than the competition in the ITT and the mountains aren't going to be of the variety where
he'll be struggling (thanks red and white). He'll prove he is up to winning a grand tour as this race suits him much more. He'll be favourite in no time, and
could be likely leading the race after the first day. Big opinion on this lad, way overs in the price (by half), and I'd expect that to change very quickly.

Sutton: Okay, you know how we Aussies come up with top-tier sprinters every so often? Well watch for this kid on the flat stages as our next big hope to jag
a stage win or two in the sprints. Won't have much of a lead-out train as resources are going to Wiggins, nevertheless the team are going to allow him to go
for it with at least Stannard and Kurt-Asle Arvesen to lead him out or get him amongst the fearless front end where he'll work just off the other working
teams. A stage win in a sprint finish will not surprise with this lad and if he's something crazy like 9-1 I'll be backing him in every appropriate
sprinters' stage as I'm confident he'll get at least one.

Achtung!: Watch the liquidity here gents, it doesn't look like, at this stage, that's it's going to be anything like what we saw in the Tour markets.

Enjoy the tour of Spain, and hope you land some good bets, gents.

Cheers,
SP

TTT result:

1 Leopard-Trek 0:16:30
2 Liquigas-Cannondale 0:16:35
3 HTC-Highroad 0:16:40
4 Pro Team Astana 0:16:40
5 Movistar Team 0:16:45
6 Quick-Step 0:16:45
7 Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:16:48
8 Skil-Shimano 0:16:48
9 Team Garmin-Cervélo 0:16:55
10 Katusha 0:16:56
11 Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:16:58
12 BMC 0:16:58
13 Saxo Bank-Sungard 0:16:58
14 RadioShack 0:16:59
15 Rabobank 0:17:00
16 Lampre-ISD 0:17:02
17 Cofidis 0:17:03
18 Vacansoleil-DCM 0:17:09
19 Ag2R-La Mondiale 0:17:12
20 Team Sky 0:17:12
21 Geox-TMC 0:17:14
22 Andalucia-Caja Granada 0:17:33

Fuglsang is in yellow, forumite "red and white" tipped the winner away from the forum but I didn't listen, doesn't matter though, Radioshack didn't disappoint me with my lay. Good start.

Cheers,
SP

Taking a further look into this stage 2, I have determined to change my Manx Missile saver win bet into a lay. There's going to be too much chaos in the sprint, more so since it's so early in the tour, and he won't have his lead-out train like in the Tour -- so that short price suggests under value. You would expect him to be that price after winning one race already, and he hasn't, so I'm willing to take him on. All green with big green on Sutton, and red on Cavendish only.

Cheers,
SP

spot on, grats

Stage 2: result.

1 Christopher Sutton (Aus) Sky Procycling
2 Vicente Reynes Mimo (Spa) Omega Pharma-Lotto
3 Marcel Kittel (Ger) Skil - Shimano
4 Tyler Farrar (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo
5 Matti Breschel (Den) Rabobank Cycling Team
6 Daniele Bennati (Ita) Leopard Trek
7 Enrico Gasparotto (Ita) Pro Team Astana
8 Lloyd Mondory (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale
9 Luca Paolini (Ita) Katusha Team
10 John Degenkolb (Ger) HTC-Highroad

...Wow! I'm still shaking, what a win from the youngster, and at 49-1. I seriously was willing to post 9-1 for Sutton when the market went up and there was no liquidity. Lucky I didn't, came back and took what was on offer. Very pleased with that, expect that he won't be that price again in this tour, never, likely. But he has more wins in him, it's easy to get carried away, but we Aussies have a way of producing these mad sprinters and I would tend to think he will not only get more wins this tour, but really go on to dominate, in the way McEwen and O'grady have done in the past. Not discounting the Manx Missile, the lad has two kicks, but watch out for Sutton again, especially if the market has thought it a fluke and 22-1 is on there for the next bunch sprint stage. In fact, anything above 9-1 is still worth considering. So early, such a win, amazing. Love 'im!

Cheers,
SP

Could be BetFair are investigating how SwingingPick tips a 49-1 shot, and whether there was any impropriety, involved. Note to BetFair: There wasn't any impropriety, just did my homework, is all. Hehe! Cheers, SP.

Great tip mate. Wish i had read this thread earlier (when i read your post i thought it must have been after the race!! All the Cavendish no lead out train & 49-1 winner very good).

Anyway just to say Peter Sagan will win Wed's Stage. Just look at that last 3km.

great shout

This stage makes me think it might be similar, if not as intense, as the finish in stage 17 of the Tour where the riders went for a short climb up above Pinerolo and descended down into the town for the finish, whereby Hagen "Boasmann" won his second stage after finishing 2nd on the stage previous. Another Aussie, the Australian born Haussler reminds me of the Boasmann, and I think this type of finish suits him, so @ 31-1 I'll allow him some entertainment. But let me drill down a little and point to what I see as a plain innacuracy in terms of implied probablility: I agree with Sagan getting a stage at the Vuelta sooner or later, and even being suited by today's stage, and other such stages where there is a false flat finish or a tricky little hill. But how can Sagan be 13-5 and Daniel Martin be 64-1? I watched some of these two going head-2-head in the Tour of Poland and had fair raps on both of them, but D. Martin won that tour back-2-back. So, either won is overs and one is unders, because in my book they are as good as each other, perhaps even, on results, D. Martin is a tad bit better, and @ 64-1 I'd rather back him than lay Sagan. Basically; Sagan is favourite, so should be D. Martin. I choose D. Martin simply on the price discrepancy, which I believe should be the same as Sagan's or Sagan's the same as D. Martin's.

Boonen has won at the Vuelta twice in 2008, and yesterday showed he is up for a win by working a little too early off the front in the closing yards. Expect that the descent finish, and then through the streets, this finish will suit him more @ 29-1. Sutton is primed now, he wants more undoubtedly and @ 24-1 he is still huge value (some friendly money from me, how can I not), so perhaps a small covering bet -- but I go back to Haussler and his ideal look for such a stage as this, and the value on offer for D. Martin, also. Haussler 31-1 and D. Martin 64-1 represent value, and I'll be backing them both. If you like Sagan than throw in D. Martin also, because Sagan is far too short imo. I won't have him for that price, and I would be tempted to lay him if not for the price available on D. Martin.

The first abandonement in the race has come with another Aussie, Matty Goss.

@David Fishwick Minibus Sales: Thanks, mate. @boycie1: Thanks to you, also. I did a fair bit of research on the GC contenders, and like I said, I've been cooled a little on Wiggo, but I still like him and will write-up any changes as they continue through Spain.

Hopefully we can test each others analysis, and make some green by the time they roll into Madrid.

Best wishes,
SP

Today could be a sprinters day because 13 km are not enough to escape.I think that good teams will bring the sprinters alive in the final kilometres.I have a bet on Boonen vs Petacchi.Wish me luck!

Oleee! Boonen in 49 position and Petacchi in 66.Good day for trading too.I layed Chavanel in 14 km to finish on 2.3 odd and backed after Lastras attacked on 8 odd.Today ,after 4 hours ,will begin Tour of Colorado.Ohh and it isn't in the offer.Shiit crap! I think that the teams today didn't wanted to catch the attackers because tommorow will be Sierra Nevada and it's more important.Again Breschell ended good in sixth and impressed me.Impressive for a sprinter.Good luck mates!

@squeek

Can't find a market on the USA Pro Challenge on BetFair, but thanks for reminding me it's on, big talk of the Evans Schleck rematch, I see. I can see why their teams went there, big money from the Yanks on offer, I'd imagine. Official website looks real professional with the information looking neat and tidy, and how should I put it...schlick! An ITT to start, essentially all downhill, wonder what sort of speeds they'll be doing and what the average speed will be? Fast, no doubt, though.

Cheers,
SP

@hippie

Thanks, mate. Same problem was noticed by @squeek after yesterday's stage finish. Don't know what the deal is, and am not one to get caught up with firing-off emails between the relevant people in charge of this shoddy management of markets. They would only apologise for the inconvenience and promise to try harder for some other reason. I'm sure they're doing their best, though.

Cheers,
SP

With the likelihood that we may see the first significant movements in the GC market after the conclusion of stage 4, I though I might go over my write-up on the main contenders. Didn't think Anton should be favourite ahead of Nibali and that has now come to bear as they find equal favouritism with the prices at 4.30. It also refinforces, imo, that the market considers Anton's question marks as significant. Whether this continues may
become evident after stage 4. I remain red on Anton and moderate green on Nibali, so that's like I'm already betting on a stronger performance for Nibali over Anton, here.

Jurgen van den Broeck has drifted some from where I noticed him at 9-1 to 10-1, but that's not close to the 14-1 I scribbled in, suggesting that the market is awaiting more evidence. Kruijswijk from 19-1 when noticed, has gone way out beyond the projected 49-1 I envisaged, to be now trading at 99-1 and 149-1. Scarponi and Rodriguez are around 6-1 and 5-1 respectively, presently, and I have nothing to offer here. D. Martin from 98-1 to 49-1 has blown out to 80's with a lay price of 130. Can't see him moving in the projected manner in finding 25-38.0 so wrong there, for now. Can't do much more but hope the market gets excited by his chances with an impressive result on a hilltop, in order so I could offer some bids.

Menchov is 21-1 and I have nothing to offer. Wiggins, my biggest green through hard-earned positions has been all about the place with his price, the market perhaps - as has been suggested to me - being spooked by his team's useless effort in the TTT, and then missing a gap in the run to the stage 2 finish, which showed inattentiveness and perhaps therefore not being serious, and obviously losing time to his competitors (overall now), namely Nibali +38 secs, D. Martin & Rodriguez +17, and Anton +14. I got a positive observation of discovering that his team were looking after him well, up yesterday's hill. 15% of the matched volume is his, interesting to note. Not as much as Nibali and Anton whom are similar, but more than Rodriguez who has 10%
matched. Overall, as thought, the liquidity is very poor. He is around 14-1, presently, but to my view an ace in his pocket, the ITT.

Menchov and Kloden 22-1 and 84-1, respectively, presently. Kloden would have got a hammering as projected to lay, out from 11-1.

In conclusion; Nibali should still be favourite in my book as he is better than a 23-24% shot, and taking into account my belief that he has less question marks over him than Anton, he should absord significantly more interest. But perhaps stage 4 will set the cat amongst the pigeons and the chances for the GC will get a shake-up in the market, this soon. New ground for me, 1st Vuelta and very hot temps, with two fairly big climbs this early in a three week event, suggests some more green on Wiggins and Nibali, and the laying of Anton.

Done nothing wrong so far, and everything right, so will continue to keep that record, going forward.

Best wishes,
SP

P.S. How clean, tidy, and well-ordered does France look in comparison to this neighbour of their's? Hehe!

Really interestin thread lads and i will follow with interest, dont usually bet on the Vuelta, hard to predict after Le Tour i feel tho i did back Nibali last year when he held off Mosquera, what a gutsy performance he gave on the last mountain stage that year.

I follow the Giro and other races b4 the TDF to try and get an angle on who i think will do well and is in form but by the time the Vuelta comes around my missus and kids are sick of cycling

None of my friends follow cycling but my da loves it so i grew up with it and think they are the hardest sportsmen in the world, Cadels performance in the TDF was unbelievable, i backed Schleck but by the end of the tour i wanted Evans to win it, worthy winner...anyway after that ramble, i think Wiggins could still be a force in the Vuelta if he is fully over the injuries sustained in the TDF ..was in good form b4

I will keep looking in, might throw a few quid at JVDB for tomorrows stage, 20's with ****, good luck

hi guys just a quick post to say wiggins has absolutely no chance. this game is about horses for courses. he only entered the vuelta as an afterthought after crashing out of TdF early. this is just not his kind of event. its like expecting a derby winner to win the grand national

@manafana

Think that the market objects to the fact that the Spanish GEOX team are in position 21 from 22 teams in attendance. No money matched yet for LIQUIGAS who are in 2nd place, obviously have Nibali and Sagan, and they're @ 39-1. Then you take into account that Sagan has already been favourite for a stage and Nibali is favourite for the GC (and I'm not one who usually looks into these markets so I might be missing something in terms of experience) but it seems a little inconsistent price to me. The favourite is MOVISTAR in 5th place, currently. Could be a good lay proposition, but I'd need convincing. How did this market look in the Tour this year and what was the pricing, like?

Cheers,
SP