Vuelta a España 2011.

@hippie

Yes, very strange stuff at the Vuelta, mate. My first as I stated earlier, so still gauging the feel and sense of the race, however, at the start of today's stage Rodriguez said; that he jumped too early on this stage last year, had essentially learnt his lesson and would was assured of the win today, because - wait for it - he was invincible!

Spanish rider with a genuine chance to win his home tour, you'd expect there will be a lot of talk, and consequently hype about him with the Spanish media goading such confident talk out of him, and I have realised that this is reflected in the market. Nevertheless, he talked the talk and proved results winning well, interesting to observe how the market responds, now. I think we may have a challenger to Nibali's favouritism. Bring it on!

Cheers,
SP

@BlockingBug

@BlockingBug

Yeah, don't feel to bad about that, mate. Moncoutie needed the better part of 30 secs up the last bit, and he had about 33 secs, so the probability he wins was slightly in his favour, perhaps. But Rodriguez had marked in that stage from before the startof the race, and rode masterfully to win. In any case, it seems you're doing a lot there: asking questions on a forum board, following the race and the market, and thinking about decisions to do with outcomes. Might I suggest that unless that's working for you relatively well, you forego at least one of the things, say; asking elementary questions about the level or expertise of a rider over another rider, which may certainly not be forthcoming, and given the rapid-fire nature of changing movements in a grand tour stage approaching the finish, and the likelihood that there are a dozen or more permutations evolving which need answering were you to receive an answer about just one. I mean, following the market trends so far this race, prior to this stage, has not been the best strategy to come out ahead on a consistent basis, from what I've discovered.

Cheers,
SP

Stage 5:

1  RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin KAT 4h 42' 54''
2  POELS, Wouter      VCD + 4''
3  MORENO, Daniel     KAT + 5''
4  MOLLEMA, Bauke     RAB + 7''
5  SCARPONI, Michele  LAM + 7''
6  ZUBELDIA, Haimar   RSH + 7''
7  FUGLSANG, Jakob    LEO + 7''
8  ROCHE, Nicolas     ALM + 7''
9  VAN DEN BROECK     OLO + 7''
10 KESSIAKOFF         AST + 7''
11 NIBALI, Vincenzo   LIQ + 11''
12 PARDILLA, Sergio   MOV + 11''
13 NIEVE, Mikel       EUS + 11''
14 MENCHOV, Denis     GEO + 11''
15 BAKELANDTS, Jan    OLO + 11''
16 SÁNCHEZ, Luis León RAB + 11''
17 KRUIJSWIJK, Steven RAB + 17''
18 SÖRENSEN, Chris    SBS + 20''
19 BRAJKOVIC, Janez   RSH + 20''
20 WIGGINS, Bradley   SKY + 20'' 

Cheers,
SP

From what I read Rodriguez is targeting the time trial and the Asturias mountains to make his move. Just because he said he wanted this stage didn't mean the other 190+ riders had to so obligingly give it to him. It's understandable that Moreno got out of his way (even though he looks the stronger rider) but what were Liquigas playing at?

All day the market was only interested in one rider (Rodriguez) and only moving in one direction. That's not competitive. On top of that the official site only seemed to work when the pictures went live and the the coverage has been shyte. If something exciting looks as if it might happen the director cuts back to camera 3 to show the stragglers.

Not a happy bunny. [>o]

thanks blockingbug, i looked a couple of days on itv but couldn't see anything, is it only on the website? or on itv 4 or something too?

@hippie

I can understand why Rodriguez would have said that - as in the Asturias the riders will be in the final week of the tour, and whilst these mountains they're covering now have given us an early treat to enjoy the efforts of the GC contenders, it will likely be in the Asturias where the race will be won by those who have looked after their legs best, in the two weeks preceding. I haven't come across the piece you've read, but a little of it brings a smile to my face when you mention the part about the ITT. Simply because if Rodriguez is targeting it than he is targeting it to simply finish - as he is a very poor time-trialist, indeed.

193 riders didn't oblige Rodriguez the win because the majority of the peloton is composed of riders other than explosive climbers, and therefore he had them beaten through style and speciality even before the stage start. How good Moreno looks is certainly evident by his results thus far, and I accept your point that Moreno got out of his way, but when Pierumberto Zani hands over your paycheck and Serge Parsani is in your ear telling you to do something, I'd imagine you do it without question.

The market certainly looks like it is very unsure of itself and holds onto the one thing which is keeping it afloat, but you'll have observed that the volume is very small, and so the focused interest easy to excuse.

Liquigas should have known the history here and been aware of Rodriguez's intentions, in which case a strong showing at the head of the peloton controlling things was warranted to make its point, and needed to prevent his attack from being launched and ultimately succeeding. Having said that, the race was going along quite quickly in the final 20 kms or so - as evident by the breaks in the peloton and the long line of its shape. A few bad coverage decisions perhaps ruined our understanding of how things came to look as they did just before the final little climb, but I'm just glad I got a look in for as much as I did, in all honesty. I noticed the same with the site as you did, but I jumped around here and there to piece together the common thread of what was occuring, and was pleased to have had the opportunity of doing so.

Might I suggest that if the market is only interested in one thing you find in it the accurate part for yourself, since it's likely we'll see this thing repeated: Essentially the market saying that through low volume this is the story we'll be concentrating on today, and you don't have much choice.

Cheers,
SP

You don't have to be a genius to work out Katusha's game plan so it makes no sense whatsoever allowing them to control the early stages of the race like this.

There are six plain stages and three mountain stages before the time trial, after that it's a climber's paradise with the added bonus to Rodriguez that the Asturias is his training ground. It should be attack, attack, attack up to and including the time trial, then see where you stand. Nibali (and Liquigas), knew what was coming today because when Rodriguez tried this last year Nibali pipped him to it. As it is, Rodriguez is picking up time bonuses where he should be vulnerable.

Teams, and individual riders, should be playing to their strengths - not looking after their legs for a futile gesture in the closing stages.

It's all a learning experience SP. This is my first time following the Vuelta. When Mr Rodriquez made his move things changed very very quickly and it's hard to get much real time information as to what's going on. Still goes into the melting pot, my lay was an experimental one for interest really and I've learnt more about the race today and some of it's protagonists to make that more than worth while.

To that end, this thread and your posts have been invaluable so cheers.

@razz - it's on ITV 4's website so I presume the TV channel as well. No idea what time the coverage starts and it's not the usual team but the commentator wasn't bad.

Initially, when looking at this stage 6, I thought it might come down to a bunch sprint finish, however given that the finish has been shortened from the run down the last climb than it has in the past when there was a bunch sprint last, I favour a breakaway group or rider to hold on, and therefore would look for a rider amongst the breakaway specialists who can both absorb a little of the climb and tuck down into a time-trial position for a world of pain and suffering. Boonen won here in 2008, and I can understand why he may carry some favour with punters, but he won in a bunch sprint, and this year I think a breakaway rider will get it.

Therefore; I like three Belgian riders for this stage; Sijmens @59-1, Nuyens @129-1, and Van Summeren @129-1 (none of whom were in the market until I requested they be included), and will spread the bets around on account of a confident lay of Sagan, who will hopefully pay my expenditure with a profit on top. In fact, so confident in a Sagan flop here that I'll throw in Haussler @24-1 and D. Martin @84-1 for good measure, or perhaps to round-off the three Belgians with three Garmin-Cervelo lads, making Van Summeren that link of five riders.

Interesting to note that Kittel won 4 sprint stages of the Tour of Poland recently, yet is the outsider in his match bet against Breschel. I've taken Kittel @ 3.27, but not sure about Breschel's form.

Best wishes gents,
SP

Just going over stage 5 finish; very pleased with the results. Didn't lay Rodriguez this time, sensing this stage was his for the winning, so therefore he beat Scarponi in match betting, who finished strongly. Another strong showing by Moreno confirmed his match bet win against Brajkovic and he payed for my expenditure on JJ Cobo who finished well behind, and perhaps does need more riding in his legs at this part of the tour. It looks as though Txurruka has been tasked with baby-sitting duties of Anton full-time, so won't have him again until the obvious news comes out from the team that Anton's race is done.

Cheers,
SP

@hippie

Teams, and individual riders, should be playing to their strengths - not looking after their legs for a futile gesture in the closing stages.

Very very, tough, hot conditions mate, with climbs every other day and therefore three weeks of riding to take into account. These men are some of the toughest, fittest sportsman in the world as boycie1 has stated earlier in this thread, and to think or infer that they're robots who don't feel pain and tiredness is inaccurate and wrong. I understand more can be done by some teams to play a bigger and more effective strategy through tactics, but even when you flog a top thoroughbred racehorse too much for too long, he'll turn off or break down. It could be that others will be stronger later, and a futile gesture won't be that all. New ground for me, but I'll adjust to the race as it goes along... doing well here, thanks.

Rodriguez isn't a big name, top-tier rider, but his results over the last two years, whilst not outstanding, suggest he is knocking on that elite door. A strong performance here might state his claims more, but I'm willing to take him on at this stage.

@BlockingBug

No worries, hope you're having fun and enjoying it. When the real-time information is lacking it pays to read between the lines, and of course things change rapidly so doing that can become difficult, and perhaps supports my contention that some things being included, might be best abandoned.

Cheers,
SP

Well the stage 6 result didn't go as scripted, at least for me. I can understand why Sagan had to go over the top of his Liquigas team mates, since Lastras was looming large, but I would have much preferred if Nibali had got his act together and won instead. First significant red in a stage for me, and it could have been worse if not for some successful match bets. Don't like to win through the misfortune of others, but Kittel was always value @3.27 in his match bet against Breschel, who sadly crashed in the neutral zone and withdrew from the race. Haussler was good green beating Petacchi. Petacchi backers got spooked when he requested medical assistance midway in the stage, not surprisingly. Boonen was small red losing to Reynes, thankfully the smallest potential red was on the losing bet of those three. An accurate prediction of the breakaway succeeding with the last climb (more accurately the descent) being used as a launching pad, however the result was surprising in that such a fairly large group of riders from the same team were allowed to descend so spectacularly into a break winning gap.

Interesting to note that the four early breakaway riders read like an 50% ITT convention for champions, with Saramotins being Latvian time-trial runner-up, and Kohler reigning Swiss national time-trial champion. Surprised the peloton were willing to allow them to increase their lead when they were combining so well. But after the feed zone I realized that at least this breakaway group wouldn't succeed, when Garmin Cervelo and Leopard Trek teams began working together at the head of the peloton to give chase. With the temps so high this small breakaway were sizzling, and the headwind didn't help much, either. Also worth noting that not all rider comments are accurate, since Sagan said prior to the stage start that he was; "not feeling as good as he should" but that the stage win was a possibility today". Also, confirming the trend of favourite backers he held up well for a substantial part of the stage at 4-1, when Kittel was 27-1 in comparison, his nemesis in the Tour of Poland, although the spread left a lot to be desired, on one occassion 3.0 back and 5.5 lay.

Anton has finally put up the white flag it seems, after yesterday's stage 5 finish when he said; "I think I'm ruled out to fight for the podium, although I hope I still have opportunites in some stage".

"Lumpy" stage 7 tomorrow with an appropriate bunch sprint finish for the sprinters, and thus an expected win to a sprinter, but certainly not the Manx Missile since he has withdrawn from the race. That leaves only one other in my book.

Cheers,
SP

I'm not familiar with Kittel SP, is he the one to which you refer or are you on Sutton again?

Stage 7

Sprinters' bunch sprint finish most likely here, however if it's hot the sprinters' teams might not bother to chase down a breakaway as the sprinters' classification is a bit stagnant. Having said that, Sky would have the most to lose if a breakaway were to build a big gap. If it does come down to a bunch sprint, I would expect that Sutton will give it another fair shake as he's young and new on the scene. Wouldn't be surprised if he began to dominate the sprints, but to do that he needs another win here. I'm leaving match bets out of it at this stage, but just on a point of accuracy in yesterday's stage 6 finish, I wrongly stated that Haussler beat Petacchi when it was the other way around, and therefore only marginal (not good) green for me, thanks to Petacchi backers getting spooked earlier in the stage after he requested medical assistance.

So far the stage markets have been very receptive to favourite trends, and I would expect to see Kittel remaining solid at the top of the market for this reason, suggesting that trading here will be accompanied with decent liquidity. He has done well winning four sprint stages in the Tour of Poland, and he should nab at least one win at the Vuelta, but in my view he'd need a lot of things going well for him to win from the likes of Sutton, Petacchi, Farrar, Haedo, and Bennati, the last representing much better value, imo.

Kittel's price is more in-keeping with a the price you would expect for Cavendish without a sprint win under his belt, and for that reason alone I will lay him to pay for my Sutton kick to the line, and green everywhere else, just in case a breakaway group were to get favourable conditions. Although, given the "lumpy" nature of the stage, the likelihood of more heat and the possibility of a headwind having an influence, I would expect Sky and the other sprinters' teams working together to bring it all back together for their men to have a run to the line. This is further supported by my belief that the Vuelta is a climbers' tour and with less opportunties for sprinters to win stages this will be one where they won't fail to have it their way.

Just observed that the stage has just started, breakaway of four combining well, temps down.

Best wishes gents,
SP

@BlockingBug

Just noticed your post after furnishing the forum my own, and I trust you will find your answer in it. If I was putting this market up, I wouldn't have had Kittel on top, then again I wouldn't have given Sagan a chance as the Liquigas group were heading for the finish yesterday, confident that the stage would be given to Nibali, but Lastras was the bogey in their by-invitation only break, and Sagan was good to have done what he did, because the alternative would have been very embarassing for the Liquigas team, a real laughing stock moment.

Cheers,
SP

I did, and have since had some of Sutton at 20 and stuck a cheeky fiver up there at 40. Regardless of whether he wins, for him to be at these prices having won a stage already and no Cavendish seems wrong to me so a value bet win or lose.

Plus, as a Blackburn fan his namesake did well for us back in the day so in these dark days for my excuse for a football team, he must be backed! :)

Was tempted to lay Farrar as I'm not familiar with Kittel and I've never really rated him but expensive at about 6s alas.

Having just written that, most of my fiver at 40 has been taken. Seems crazy to me. Perhaps the market thinks the peloton won't work as hard to reel in a breakaway now that HTC won't be riding for Cavendish.

@BlockingBug

I got into the market early on Sutton, just when it was posted, taking my fill then unnecessarily as it turned out on average, of my three consolidated bets, I came out at 16.17. Should have waited till now as he's even a better price, but I would have had him around 9-1, tbh. Absolutely, I can just sense his enthusiasm to grab another win, and if we see Sky (or more accurately, two members of Sky) involved in a peloton spearhead to bring these four back, we'll know it's game-on for a real Sutton chance. You're quite right about HTC, but other teams can do the work if they feel their own sprinter is feeling up for a win. I think that the market would have been more concerned by the lead of the breakaway of four blowing out to 8+ mins at one stage than the fact that there won't be a HTC movement to (on) the front. So far the market is superficial in that respect, and a lot of the positions are there by chance, I would say, well at least 33% so far according to my reading of the stages been raced so far.

Cheers,
SP

@BlockingBug

Just on the matter of laying riders, that can be good and it's always nice to go all-green, but I have found it a good strategy to just lay enough to pay for my expenditure, using form-lines and asking questions concerning value to lay favourites, mostly. I'm not much of an in-play trader in that respect, using my knowledge to build a solid and hedged position (at going in-play), should things turn into the perfect storm - as they did for me in the Tour when Evans won, and tbh even then it was only a perfect storm on the forecast, when in reality it turned out be a passing shower.

I wouldn't lay one rider just because I didn't know enough about another, but perhaps that has worked for you before, and I'm certainly in no position to say it hasn't. I do acknowledge that it can sometimes pay to find a so-called "bogey" name one goes back to lay time and again. Webber in the F1-GP has proven to be a good distant mate of mine in that respect, failing when the market dictates he should be succeeding. Perhaps Farrar is that name for you? But of course you want him when he's affordable to really have your fill whilst controlling liability.

Cheers,
SP

Liquidity for this stage is much better with six riders at relatively narrow spreads. Interestingly, that stops at Sutton who has drifted out to 50. Not seen much of Team Sky at the front apart from a brief stint from Wiggins just now.

Farrar's getting to a layable price for me now though at 4s so I might place a cheap lay to cover my bet on Sutton if he shortens more in the final kms.

Think the game's up for the breakaway now anyhow. Can see them getting caught before 15Km to go is up

@BlockingBug

I've noticed. Laying Farrar is one thing,  but you could also back the 7 sprinters below the favourite for 50% - now they are the kind of odds which would suggest that Kittel is a bank job, 100% cert win. 1 rider against 7. No way is that value, in my book.

Yeah, the breakaway are toast!

Cheers,
SP

@BlockingBug

The market would appreciate some signs from Sky to gauge Sutton's optimisim, however it's not all over if we don't see it as he's cunning enough to find the right position and the right wheel to launch his kick.

Talk late of a strong lead-out train for Kittel, I don't buy it.

Cheers,
SP

@BlockingBug

You were close, peloton got all but one of them @12 kms to go, and @8 kms to go for Fouchard.

All together, bunch sprint finish assured, and one man against seven to win. Can't wait to see this! We may have a new Manx Missile on our hands, not likely, imo.

Cheers,
SP

Big crash at the end took out Farrar. I didn't see where Sutton came or if he was mixed up.

Kittel's team looked to do a good job to be fair.

@BlockingBug

Yep, nasty crash, your lay involved. Didn't hear or see Sutton anywhere. It was all Skil-Shimano and Kittel with Sagan late on the line, and well... Tour of Poland form standing up very well here at the Vuelta. Kittel is the real deal it looks like, pity I had to learn the hard way, with back-2-back losses for me. Need to asses the situation at length, now, go back and do my homework. The winner bank now looking better than the stage bank for me, after such an early big win.

Cheers,
SP

Stage 7 result:

1  KITTEL, Marcel     SKS 4h 47' 59''
2  SAGAN, Peter       LIQ m.t. 1º
3  FREIRE, Óscar      RAB m.t. 1º
4  BENNATI, Daniele   LEO m.t. 1º
5  MONDORY, Lloyd     ALM m.t. 1º
6  HAEDO, Juan Jose   SBS m.t. 1º
7  VEELERS, Tom       SKS m.t. 1º
8  PETACCHI, A        LAM m.t. 1º
9  GASPAROTTO, E      AST m.t. 1º
10 HOWARD, Leigh      THR m.t. 1º

47 SUTTON, Chris      SKY m.t. 1º

Lesson learnt, cannot discount this market's accuracy on account of some strange movements in the earlier stages. Last three favourites have got home well, and when there was no Sky at the front of the peloton in the charge down into the finish, Sutton's price blew out as were his chances. Kittel is obviously no Manx Missile in the record books, but to hold such a price for the entire stage and win impressively, plus a strong lead-out train performance from his team, suggests that he is the sprinter to beat when favourite.

Mountainous stage 8 tomorrow, with a beast of a finish for the brave climbers in the race; I'm not ruling out the favourite, that's for sure.

Cheers,
SP

Just looking at this stage 8 it looks like an absolute test for the climbers, hard to think how anyone can be favourite given all the factors under examination here. I'm not even sure what compares to this stage in the recent Tour de France, tbh. Won't be laying Rodriguez to pay for my expenditure, been burned on the last two favourites doing that, but would expect this position to drive the market. I know it's still early in this tour, only the first week, but I'd expect a significant shortening in Rodriguez's price for GC if he gets up here in 1st.

So, looking at this stage and trying to understand all the potential aspects involved, I'm under the impression that the peloton will stay together (at least the GC contenders) for the most part of the race, until the last categorised climb where the speed gets laid on and the cream rises to the top, and taking into the explosive nature needed to kick to an uphill finish, if there is still a group left to fight it out than one would think an explosive climber such as Rodriguez or Moreno will get it. I think @hippie mentioned earlier in the thread how good Moreno looked behind Rodriguez at the conclusion of the uphill stage 5 finish, coming 3rd, after winning the stage 4 before comfortably, so one'd have to think he is in with show, here, also. @ 16-1 or thereabouts, I've asked for and got high 20s -- he is the value pick rider for me. But obviously given the demanding nature of this stage, one thing we can be sure about is that we will gain an insight to the chances of the GC contenders, yet again.

Cheers,
SP

I think if any of the main GC contenders are feeling strong they should try and drop Rodriquez before the final climb becuse it simply looks made for him, sharp incline and he should just be able to kick away from them all

Stage 8 Result:

1  RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin  KAT 4h 49' 01'' Spot on @boycie1.
2  SCARPONI, Michele   LAM + 9'' Good ride to finish second.
3  MOLLEMA, Bauke      RAB + 9''
4  VAN DEN BROECK      OLO + 9'' Solid ride, also.
5  FUGLSANG, Jakob     LEO + 12''
6  ANTON, Igor         EUS + 15'' Shows that he's not done for, I guess.
7  ROCHE, Nicolas      ALM + 15''
8  MENCHOV, Denis      GEO + 15''
9  MARTIN, Daniel      GRM + 15''
10 KESSIAKOFF, Fred    AST + 15''
11 ZUBELDIA, Haimar    RSH + 20''
12 MONFORT, Maxime     LEO + 20''
13 NIEVE, Mikel        EUS + 20''
14 BRUSEGHIN, Marzio   MOV + 20''
15 MORENO, Daniel      KAT + 20''
16 BRAJKOVIC, Janez    RSH + 20''
17 POELS, Wouter       VCD + 20''
18 COBO, Juan José     GEO + 20''
19 WIGGINS, Bradley    SKY + 20'' Didn't lose a heap of time.
20 FROOME, Chris       SKY + 20''

Cheers,
SP

P.S. Going on holidays, and whilst I'll be following the tour, I may not have access to a computer. All the best gents.

Don'T think Anton still has a chance, layed more after the stage, today will show!

Awesome stage today, brilliant win for Dan Martin and a career best performance? from Wiggins, ably assisted by Superman Chris Froame.

dan martin's got that 'irish jockey' look

Anton down as well, will lose more in ITT

Good day for Nibali yesterday all things considered. Looks like Wiggins went out too hard and paid for it at the end. Great ride from Froomes will prompt some interesting debate on the Team Sky coach but I don't think either of them have enough of a buffer for some of the harder climbs.

Should be some interesting attacks before the finish though. Had a nice day backing Martin for the ITT win and laying Cancellara for the top 3.

Chatting to some blokes more informed than me yesterday, they expect a Rodriquez attack at some point but earlier than he would normally like because he has so much time to make up, thus he might blow up halfway up a climb pushing too hard and be a good in-play lay. Will be watching out for that one.

Wiggins in Red, didn't expect Froome to blow up so quickly but good day again for Sky with no time gained or lost but several other challengers to their main man falling back. Looks very good for a podium now even though it's questionable whether he'll have the beating of Nibali by the end.

Rodriquez was getting matched at around 4s at the start of the stage which was very short. Had some of that and lumped on Moncoutie at the start of the final climb.

I believe, SP, you'll be looking very good now in the outright for when you return.

Just thought I'd pop-in since you @BlockingBug have been so nice to reply to me, personally.

I layed-off Wiggins @2-1 just prior to the ITT after initially picking him up @13-1 ante-poste and topping up @9-1, suspecting that he wouldn't gain as much time over Nibali as expected in the ITT, and then figuring that with so many hilly and mountain stages to go, he wasn't a cert to win outright. That seems to have been born out somewhat, yes he is in red, but Nibali has done absolutely nothing, and yet he is within a few seconds of Wiggins and the hills and mountains of the third week are still to come. This race is wide open as far as I see it, and knowing that I'm green allows me to pretty much start again, building new positions in the race, according to the changing dynamics of the GC contenders' chances. Just on the ITT, I brought the stage bank back into some order after taking some earlier hits on laying favourites, but it's still short of where it was. T. Martin is the real deal in this discipline, and if there's a market on the World Champs ITT I will be going back in for some more on him, although I doubt people will be offering 7-2, again.

So, Wiggins in Red, Nibali with a sniff after doing nothing, and stages of the tour which Rodriguez has been targeting all along. I've marked stage 17 as where Rodriguez will seek to find some final glory in the tour, if all GC hopes are out the window by then. But as far as the GC question goes, one must believe that given the difficult stages to come, it's still anybody's race to win. Glad I'm not on Wiggins solely as he is far from a cert, even though he is in red. Might see some heroics from Rodriguez, and I feel that with more liquidity his 17-1 price would be well worth a shot to get into, however with no liquidity one would have to think he has left it too late to impose himself on the race again, in any case.

Nibali is favourite for good reason, but given the difficulty of the final week to come, I would be more confident to lay Wiggens than back Nibali. The race is open for a few of the others below these two and I just don't see Wiggens having the ability to go with an attack by someone who will be willing to go all-out on a climb. The fact that Froome is there with him must be a little uncomfortable for the team, and we don't know how that is likely to play out yet. It's Nibali's race to win, for sure, he's there having done nothing and he is the winner from last year, moreover he doesn't have to win stages to attack Wiggens, and so therefore there remains some small question marks on those chances who are close but aren't known climbers. If Cobo was a little closer he would be my standout pick, but 17-1 is about right, and some interest money is well worth this lad who can climb well at this stage of the tour. Nevertheless, given all this is still not nailed down, I would be willing to lay Wiggens, figuring there will be too many attacks from too many sides for him to counter and win.

Good to hear you did well with Moncoutie, and I hope you are doing well on the race, also.

Cheers,
SP

Tomorrow (stage 15) is the key stage.

That's when Katuscha will try to break the race's back.

Cheers SP. Learnt a lot about the race first week which is paying dividends now. Had a good win on Sagan day before yesterday where the market seemed over-confident in Kittel despite a far from straightforward finish with it being slightly uphill.

Much as I'd love to see him prove me wrong, I think Wiggins is going to find today difficult and may find himself out of Red by close of play. He didn't have many seconds to play with in the first place and has criminally allowed Nibali to snipe one or two here and there. I think he'll lose a few more today, not enough to put him out of contention mind but going to have a small lay of him today as not much liquidity in the "Rider in Red" market. Worse case scenario is he turns himself inside out today to stay in red and severely compromises himself for tomorrow and the Angrilu.

Rodriguez should animate today and possibly on the penultimate climb. If he gets very short, I will lay him in play as he may well overcook it and blow up on the last. Martin might be a good shout for the win but 10s seems a bit skinny so I've gone for Moreno over Froome in the head to heads as he didn't look great yesterday.

@BlockingBug

The thing I've learnt so far about the Vuelta specifically, is it's very much designed for climbers, and whilst the Tour is won by climbers, the Vuelta seems to be brutally and ruthlessly designed for punishing those climbers in the peloton who wish to win the honour of wearing the red jersey on the final day.

Taking into account that Wiggens is not a natural climber in a team without good support on the climbs, he will not be able to sustain all the attacks by all those riders who, feeling good on the day, can attack and get into red. It's essentially, a combined tag-team attack scenario where he has to cover all the moves by those within striking distance of red. Like I said, they're not the best of climbers, but only one has to be feeling good to take it with an attack he won't be able to cover.

All the best wishes, mate.

@hippie

All the stages are now big, imo, wouldn't be confident to single-out one where the GC-winning break will be established, certainly they have to find one and hope the plan works out as they're slowly running out time.

Cheers,
SP

Wiggins comes of age !!!!!!!!

Wow absolute carnage just now. Nibali and Rodriguez losing significant time to Wiggins. Did not see that coming, very glad Wiggo's price had drifted and I decided not to lay. Less lucky with Froome who I thought would bury himself but he looked strong too.

Managed to get on Cobo in the head to head's to mitigate that particular loss. Same again tomorrow and a Wiggins win becomes increasingly likely.

given the improvement what odds Wigging is doping ?

1.33 ?

manafana 22 Aug 11 23:42 
right going take some 5.0 on geox now, the have menchov, cobo, sastre and durate 4 lads who will hang about in climbs.

Looking good now mana...good spot/tip

Wow, didn't think that would come so easy: 25-1 tickle on Cobo now becomes some good pocket money as his price crashes to 5-1, after his solid effort to take good time out of Wiggens and finish just behind the winner on stage 14.

This race has a lot more twists and turns, folks. Stage 15 is a big challenge and whether or not we see a Kathusha figh back as suggested by @hippie, the biggest questions will be asked of Wiggens to date, so I wouldn't be making such a big call as @DAN1974 just yet. Certainly he is coming of age with a solid performance so far, but there's no second ITT to increase his chances of a win, yet more tests in the mountains and hills of this hot country. I'm willing to take his price on even more, now that Cobo filled my fantasy so easily, but I still wouldn't discount Nibali. Strange effort by Rodriguez, had Moreno for support if he wanted him and nothing came of it, I think he is a spent force now and cannot win the tour, making the chances of stage 17 more likely for him to win, perhaps not so strangely.

Yeah, I don't buy into the doping stories, so no comment or interest from me, sorry @RAPS. Absolutely, top call by @manafana earlier regarding Geox, that's all sewn-up one would think, so congratulations to those backers.

So, can Wiggens repeat his effort in tomorrow's stage 15 and as @BlockingBug infers, his chances begin to look very good if he can? Well, he worked hard, but certainly finished impressively, but if he can repeat his effort and Cobo can repeat his effort also, then Wiggens will ultimately fall short one would think, narrowly. The argument exists that the peloton allowed Cobo's move because his position in the race wasn't a major threat; that has now changed dramatically, and he won't have it all his own way, now. However, I don't think he needs it his own way, this is a good climber, much better than Wiggens, and I don't think Sky will have the answers should he go again, if he can go again so well. I have, all of a sudden, a very handy (new) position with Cobo, but always believed in his chances and still firmly believe he is Wiggens' biggest threat in the race, presently. But the other threat is obviously Mollema who holds field green for me, but has a better position than all the rest, and is a young rider finally carving out a name for himself after some good rides earlier in his career but also some unlucky missed moves and opportunities to get recognized. Don't usually associate a Dutchman with great climbing, and yet to also see a hard kick up a mountain stage from him in this tour if I am not mistaken, so I'm not getting excited about his chances just yet. But, Wiggens remains a good lay opportunity for me, strictly because even if he doesn't win here he'll finish on the podium and that'll be a good result after crashing out of the Tour, etc. It's just such a big ask given the stages still to come that he climbs as he did in this stage 14, again and again. Tomorrow's evidence will likely determine if I will go deep red on him, but for now I'm laying him again.

Cheers,
SP

Just thought I'd pop over and say well done to SP, after the first two stages I was very unsure about Wiggins' commitment to this tour but he and Froome have been magnificent.  Huge stage today, though, so hope he didn't expend too much yesterday.

I was so impressed by Wiggins yesterday that I had a quick look on the BBC SPOTY market.  I see Wiggins is trading at 100+ and Cav at 14/1.  I think I'm right in saying that Wiggo would become Britain's first Grand Tour winner, and has roughly a 50% chance of doing so?  In which case I'd say that's a better all-round and historic achievement than Cav's stage wins, although Cav still has the Worlds as well which I guess is weighed heavily into the price with the course suiting. 

The other bonus factors in Wiggins' favour would be the Dauphine win and the fact that IF he wins this it comes so quickly after the TdF injury, so you've got the bad-luck, triumph from adversity angle. Plus you've got a stellar Olympic track record behind him going into the home Olympic year.  Downside is that perhaps the UK public just isn't willing to look beyond the TdF in cycling terms and might not recognise the achievement.  And he still has to win the damn thing, which is a pretty big IF.  But comparing the odds to Cav alone I've had a tickle at 120.

@swinging pick glad you noticed the geox tip they've come good, pity market didnt have much liquidty ended taking smaller prices with bookies just get cash on.

@total bosman iv traded cavs at 25 out at 20, worried vuelta drop out might affect price, being rational you'd think wiggins winning here would see him be good call for SPOTY add to that fact itv being showing it and SSN will be pushing t if he wins.

@pullhard seen you quoting my post, glad some got on, i traded most of it out as doubted myself slightly in end mistake as their climbers did good yesterday and todays stage will probably seal the deal now

Stage 15 market?

I'm sure Wiggins is climbing better because of his rather dramatic weight loss. When you see him on the podium it's Victoria Beckham from the waist down. I was pretty shocked the other day when he was standing there in cycling shorts and socks as he looked positively anorexic. Not sure how those spindly legs are propelling him forward so well. Not that i'm complaining as I've been long on him since the start.
This may be controversial but I do not think we are seeing the best rider in red. For me that is Chris Froome who beat Wiggin's fair and square in a strong man's time trial, and has also looked by far the better climber. Typically he has been pulling Wiggins uphill then finishing with him which is highly unusual. Yesterday Wiggo looked knackered at the top but Froome looked comparatively fresh. Indeed there was only one day when Froome looked tired, understandably though as he had sacrificed himself for the team. In short I feel sorry for Froome who is clearly under team orders, presumably because Brad has the higher profile and will therefore attract more publicity and sponsorship. Surely another team will snap Froome up on this evidence and give him a chance of winning a grand tour, unless of course he is happy to be paid for playing second fiddle which would be a shame and a waste of his undoubted ability.

igor anton @ 40s for todays stage. rolled in with sprinters 30 minutes down yesterday.
gc chances gone in the 1st week so hoping hes been riding to find his legs ready for the 'queen' stage.
at that price i'll take my chances

On form it looks like he needs to find somebody else's legs but you never know. It's a rotten market, currently 556.4% against the true total of each riders' chances of winning of 100%, so I can see why you were looking for value!

If anyone else tuned into itv4 at the usual 2:45 time for the Vuelta and wondered what on earth was going on, just to let you know it's being broadcast on the net at www.itv.com/lavuelta/2011/live/
Can't believe they dumped the Queen stage for the British Touring Car Championship.

Awesome climbing by cobo.
Wiggins blown out the water

Good call SP. I'm pleased Froome finally got the millstone from his neck. He's dragged twice his body weight up these mountains. He's surely the Sky team leader now and it will be a fantastic last week of the tour.

So it was Geox that broke the race's back. They controlled it brilliantly.

@red and white

Thanks mate. I take your point and agree with it entirely.

@hippie

Yes it was, and yes they did.

@Total Bosman

I don't know much about the BBC SPOTY market, so thanks for bringing it to my and this forum's attention. I think you may be onto something, however, from what I've learnt about British culture; is that you folks love a knockabout boozing smoker athlete come good, much like the rest of us here Down Under. In a world obsessed with political-correctness someone like Darren Clarke is a breath of fresh air, even though he's hardly the ideal fresh character representative. That's the charm I think, and I'm not surprised to see him favourite in that market. Nevertheless, at that price one can afford to have them both, although things have changed a little now, being that it's more unlikely that Wiggens will win the Vuelta.

---

So, after finding the Cobo position, and essentially having now backed two winners in the race, I decided to lay him a little as it's still not his as a cert, with Froome only 20 secs back. I think 1.30-something for Cobo is an absolute joke with the stages still remaining. There's a minute-plus waiting on top of the stage 17 finish just for starters, and 18, 19, and 20 are stages where you don't want to miss a critical move or have an off day. Yes, I agree with the inference by @hippie that they are a great team in this tour, and are in the box position to take Cobo to Madrid in red, but I'm now willing to entertain Froome, based on what @red and white has said as a starting point, and finding the foundation of his time being so close to Cobo's.

Wiggens had the race, allowed it to slip through his fingers yesterday, after getting massive assistance from Froome, and now all bets are off, the team will give him free reign to go for it and try and find 21 seconds on Cobo. Can he? And is the price worth getting into?

I'm still studying the evidence, but I'm considering a third and final flip, perhaps for much smaller interest now, simple because it's a narrow margin and there's still 4 stages of climbing involved.

Cheers,
SP

Credit where credit is due, manafana identified Geox as the team to beat (wd). I assumed it would be Katusha, especially as Rodriguez, Moreno and Losada finished 3rd, 10th and 13th on the Angliru the last time it was climbed (Rodriguez was looking after Valverde). Could they have ridden a poorer race?

Wiggins didn't allow the race to slip through his fingers. The race organisers have given the [Spanish] climbers every assistance to win it and it's unfolding as it should, i.e. get the time trial out of the way and let the climbers dominate. As for Froome finding 21 seconds on Cobo, he couldn't even prevent Menchov taking the 8 seconds time bonus from him (great ride). It's difficult to see why Geox should have a problem policing the race all the way to Madrid now.

@hippie

Firstly, I agree that the Vuelta is a tour where the Spaniards want to see a Spaniard win, but it is nonsense to say that the organisers have organised the tour for the Spanish climbers, as any climber would be advantaged by a tour with lots of testing climbs throughout. The thing is, is that Wiggens isn't just a very good climber on ultra steep climbs, and that's why anyone who was entertaining Tour de France glory for him earlier was delusional. Here, I initially thought he would handle the climbs much better as he is better suited by "lumpy" stages (that was confirmed for the most part as he did get into red) than outright steep climbs such as yesterday. @red and white observed well that he stripped his weight down to give himself every chance here, but when it came down to the one steep climb (Queen Stage), where he has never been comfortable in his career, he just couldn't pedal and his laboured technique looked atrocious. There was just no evidence he could stem the flow of time against him by a much better climber. Nevertheless, I take your point that with another ITT his chances to win the race improve and indeed approach Cobo's price now, but then Froome becomes an even more likely candidate for Sky as he did offer a lot of assistance for Wiggens as @red and white accurately points out, is above him in the GC, and beat Wiggens in the ITT where T. Martin won.

Next; I know what you're saying, mate. But 20 seconds, what a slim margin. Having looked over the previous stages it's difficult to find something to get excited about concerning Froome's chances in the climbs, and plenty to observe which looks quite poor indeed, as you say with the Menchov outcome. And so I look to his time-trialling ability, the TTT favouritism tag Sky had, and a no-risk approach strategy by the team director for one last role of the dice on stage 20 and the cat.1 Puerto de Urkiola some 50kms from the finish in Vitoria -- should the margin still remain the same (or perhaps less, but unlikely). If Sky could get one other rider to join Froome and Wiggens for an attack at this final climb of the tour, they could essentially combine into a three-man breakaway to the finish for Froome to win, and claim the winner's time bonus.

Firstly though, Froome would need to win one of the stages left to improve his chances of winning outright. It could be that his best chance of winning a stage is not in the remaining hilly stages, but perhaps tomorrow's stage 16, if he were to get himself into a breakaway. Unlikely, though, I know. And I'm not about to kid myself, but I just don't see the value in Cobo: 1.30. But then again, with Cobo one sees that he could easily win another remaining hilly stage, particularly stage 17 since Rodriguez is out of the picture and spent, to really wrap the race up for himself, after - as you say - breaking its back, yesterday.

In conclusion; Froome's chances are found in fantastical scenarios for the most part, whilst Cobo is leading by 20 secs, is on a solid team, and has every chance of winning another stage to sew-up his Madrid red. 1.30 is short, but not short enough that it's not deserving, and therefore I agree with you that Geox should control the race with little problem. Cobo wins!

Cheers,
SP

@ SP ... Great analysis of the race a few days ago, i backed Wiggins at 13.0 and was pretty happy to let it ride but you convinced me Cobo would make a run at it, i wish i had've listened earlier as i didnt get him at 17.0 but later when he was only 6.0...still it was just a saver bet, no great amounts on either, that queen stage was absolutely brutal, Cobo was very impressive even on 20%+ gradients, Wiggins looked like me going up a normal hill on a bike

Be very interesting to see what team Froome ends up with,looks an immense talent.

Excellent thread to match an excellent race thus far.

@boycie1

Excellent, I'm glad you got some action there. 5-1 into 1.30 is always the kind of crash which will make one wish they had some more on from the start. I'm very pleased to learn I had some positive influence with my analysis, so thanks for letting me know, I really appreciate it. Froome without the "millstone" gone from around his neck looks an exciting rider to follow, with plenty of room to grow, and I will definitely keep an eye on him, also. Just another thing on the Queen Stage, was amazed by its beauty and it was the first stage which reminded me of France. Lovely part of the country, but that gradient would have tested the best, no doubt.

Cheers,
SP

Vuelta visits the Basque country for the first time since the 70's this week. SP I agree with you on the countryside - my recent recollection over the last few years of the Vuelta is of sunburnt landscape.

Any value in Haussler at 40's with veecee?

@Tony Fenton

G'day mate. For the most part, the country has really reflected the colour of the leader's jersey, but it seems that the Asturias region is very much a unique part of this arid-looking country. Not sure what "veecee" means, sorry mate, but the winner of stage 16, if it comes back together for a bar-room brawl-style sprint finish, then Sagan looks the goods for me.

Cheers,
SP

SP Victo r Chand ler bookmaker. Looks a big lead already all the same peleton mightnt get it back.

TF Sometimes it's good to go with your feelings, and if Haussler can jump out than he'll win at a good price for you. However, in a sprint finish Sagan will be very strong, I think. I have some loyalty to Sutton, but this time I can't look past Sagan.

Best wishes,
SP

Sound SP keep up the posting very interesting read.

I'm on Sagan for today also. Should be nicely rested after yesterday, despite putting a shift in on Sunday. Plus, he's had good support from the team on the flat stages whereas Petacchi has been left to fend for himself and Bennati hasn't really been close.

it is nonsense to say that the organisers have organised the tour for the Spanish climbers

It's not nonsense at all. You only have to look at the fact that the UCI and WADA have had to turn to CAS because the Spanish federation would rather ignore the rules rather than ban Contador for doping.

I'm not suggesting the organisers have done anything wrong but you're naive if you think they haven't given every assistance to producing a Spanish winner.

@hippie

I was wondering if you would take my quote out of context, and it seems you have. If you were to re-examine my point you will find that I agree with you for the most part - as a second ITT in the race would have disadvantaged the purer climbers, and therefore the inference exists that by choosing to include only one ITT the organisers were balancing the tour toward more purer climbers winning. As it turned out the majority of purer climbers have been Spanish in the Vuelta this year, but this information wasn't necessarily known to the organisers at the time of organisation and planning.

As far as the CAS hearing, I don't subscribe to the notion that RFEC did much wrong and that it's a travesty of judgement - of course they may have had a less than impartial view from the outset, but would have needed to follow accepted standards. UCI and WADA don't agree with the decision and have to look like they're doing something about it. I can understand why they're doing it, keeping a hard line on no drugs in cycling is important to keep the sport attractive to potential sponsors, but at the end of the day it's simply that they are doing their jobs; but it's also very political, since this entire matter has been played-out in the media, receiving commentary from the serious to the comedic. Moreover, I don't think any other country's cycling federation would have acted much differently (the Ulrich matter was also similar, I think), and if the CAS decision is - in fact - no different (as I would expect) than that would confirm RFEC's original handling being fair. Unless this whole process continues to drag out, we should all find-out this year.

I don't think the Spanish organisers have done anything wrong either, and I reject your naivety tag. Each organiser wants a local to win their race, of course, but to suggest that their is a way to advantage nationality (race) over athleticism, or more importantly athlete type, in formulating a set of challenges over a 3 week event, presents you as the only one who is naive in this discussion, and wrong for misrepresenting my viewpoint.

Cheers,
SP

You try to distort a clear case of drug cheating, presume to explain UCI and WADA's actions as "having to look like they're doing something about it" whilst it's all "very political", second guess that every other country's cycling federation would have done the same as the Spanish then tell me that although I quoted you word for word I've taken you out context?

You come across so up yourself and as your posts makes War and Peace look like a pamphlet I'm not even going to get into it with you. Life's too short.

envy is a terrible thing

hippie:

If I attempted to do anything it was to have an open mind and not follow the pack mentality of guilty by accusation. Of course it looks bad for Contador, but there's always more to the story, and I'm one who is willing to take the wait and see approach through due diligence. I reject that I tried to distort anything of the sort, had I attempted to do so I would have succeeded, I dare say.

I certainly don't accept that the use of one (word-for-word) sentence out of a multiple sentence paragraph, doesn't have the effect to be taken out of context as the context reaches beyond the one (word-for-word) sentence you surgically removed to misrepresent my position.

In any case, you seem to hold yourself in very high regard indeed, inferring that you have the measure of "getting into it" with me, but where really all you have shown so far is the petulance of a child who has over-reached and failed, and which had little option but to find comfort in a personal attack on me, which you very much intended to be hurtful, even though I showed you the respect of responding to you with a detailed and thoughtful reply, time and again.

Thanks for the pamphlet comment, I'm a fan of Tolstoy so to have my writing compared to this epic work of world literature is very satisfying. Might I suggest you would have been far more hurtful and less complimentary, if you instead made your reference around the latest issue of a "Viz" comicbook, certainly it seems that it's something along the kind of daily reading you favour given your countless humorous failures in discussing things with me.

Cheers,
SP

@hippie, so that's why a Brit won today's stage?

Boom! In goes Froome. Fabulous performance today and though he may not win the Vuelta we have seen a hero in the making. What guts to take on Cobo like that. Let's not forget the time lost in the disastrous team time trial and all that effort used dragging Wiggins uphill, and he's only twenty one. I just hope he leaves Sky as Wiggins and team boss Brailsford go back a long way via the Manchester velodrome and British olympic team. As we have seen, Wiggins is a limpet that can only be dislodged when the slope is above 15%. Saturday's stage could be interesting now.

It was remiss of me to neglect to mention Cobo who produced a performance well worthy of the red jersey. What a shock it must have been when Froome so easily gapped him. He made the best comeback since Lazarus in the closing stages. I honestly don't think I've ever seen a better stage finish. I'm now hooked on the Vuelta (no more cold turkey after the Tour), though we could do with a picture that doesn't keep cutting out and better sound/commentary. This guy on itv4 is as dull as ditchwater, though we are spoilt with Liggett and Sherwin in the main event.

awesome ride by Froome( & cobo).
edge of the seat stuff

awesome ride by Froome( & cobo).
edge of the seat stuff

Does anyone else think Cobo might have misjudged where the finish line was , I thought he rode a finish & appeared to sit up on the last corner looking a little puzzled as to the actual line.

Considering the work Froome has done earlier in the tour for his leader it is a phenomenal performance .... but has it cost him victory ?

Let's press refresh for a moment shall we:

I think we can agree we always believed Cobo could do something like this again, however, even though Froome has been the better hard worker on the Sky team throughout the Vuelta, there was little to no evidence that he could, in fact, do what he did by challenging Cobo's kick for home on such a tough finish, and indeed prevail heroically to now narrow the margin by nearly half on the red jersey.

So, it makes interesting reading to observe that Cobo's price hasn't moved in all effect, after the initial nervy squeezes here and there, post stage 17 finish presentation, and now two ticks down a litte more.

So, given all the evidence we have now been provided concerning Froome's ability in the hills, and what we already knew about his time-trialling ability should the freakish occur and he breakaway with one or two well-combining others -- can Froome now win, or rather are his chances greatly improved, and therefore does Cobo become a good lay option for those of us who have him for good green? I think the answer to that is obviously yes, it makes good betting sense to me, but the true question here is the one which asks whether Cobo is worth laying into red as the red jersey potentially finds Froome's frame ahead of Madrid?

Let us assess what we know: We have three hilly stages remaining, none with a finish like what we saw today, though. In fact, stages 18 and 19 seem to have downhill approaches which conjur-up reminders of the scenario in the stage 6 finish in Cordoba, where the Liquigas men attacked on the descent and time-trialled for a Sagan win, narrowly. Here, it'll be much more difficult to do the same as the distances from the bottom of the descents are much longer, but if anyone can do it it's Sky, surely - as it might be important to remember that they were deserving of favouritism in the TTT, and only unfortunate circumstances prevented them from having the solid finish they would have been hoping for prior to the start.

I think the market had dug itself in, with Cobo's price finishing so short after his impressive Queen Stage win, and now feels very sympathetic to a lead which has been narrowed by nearly half. We saw how something freakish as the absence of tape across a portion of the road into the sprinter's finish of stage 16 affected the outcome of the contenders' chances there, and clearly that factor might still exist with the two left to fight it out (let's hope not), which might gift either Cobo or Froome the win, somewhat unfairly. But the fact that we can look at it as two contenders being left would suggest to me that Froome's prospects have improved markedly; he has done what I thought he would have to do a post or two ago, he has won a stage, to give himself every chance of Vuelta glory, and whilst for me it is now advantage Froome, the market seems to disagree, hardly budging on Cobo's chances in terms of implied probability. I'm in a position where I can strip down Cobo through laying him and backing Froome some more, to go all out for a solid Vuelta win on Froome, since that is where exists the value for me, and indeed my earlier hard-won green positions, but the question is will I risk good green for either contender, for bigger green on one? Borrowing the words of red and white: "Boom! In goes Froome." But also, I think the market might slowly begin to move a little on the positions as it's an impressive number which seperates them, it's getting close to the finish obviously, which suggests some profit in market movement should there be no obvious change in the Vuelta standings for at least the next stage, but that is largely irrelevent, isn't it? It's all, or simply investment returned for me, I feel. Too much excitement to leave things so boringly flat, I feel.

Cheers,
SP

I think Froome did enough today to make Cobo backers nervous, perhaps causing his price to creep out gradually while Froome's price comes in over the next few days. Add to that the market is 10% over round (though that is a luxury in the vuelta where stage markets have been several hundred percent over) and there are over 40 riders quoted who have zero chance.
Hand on heart I think Froome's vuelta will be a heroic failure as well as a tremendous success. If the team had been built around him he would surely have been a clear winner. He needs his team behind him to have any chance on the remaining stages but I noticed today that Wiggins was not returning the favour by sacrificing himself for Froome. The coverage isn't great but he looked to be riding as though he was still team leader. Can he sacrifice his pride to perform the domestique deluxe role that Froome needs from him? I doubt it. He will be looking for his first podium finish.

Froome = 26 y/o

Keep your green on Cobo, he has won bar a crash or something freakish.

Break to survive tomorrow unless Liquigas miss the break and want to bring it back for Sagan, assuming he can hold on in the climbs.

Thanks for putting me right, I was thinking of Sagan who is 21.

Dope:

Keep your green on Cobo, he has won bar a crash or something freakish.

You mean like tape across the road? If the break contains Sky riders including Froome than does it survive also?

I don't have all the answers, but at least I present my opinions with theories. Even barring a crash or something "freakish" this isn't Cobo's cruise to Madrid in red, any longer, no way. red and white makes an important point concerning Wiggens becoming Sky's "domestique deluxe role" and essentially now devoting all his energies and focus on doing everything he can for Froome to win, as without Wiggens' assistance, Froome loses his slim advantage from yesterday. But in order to entertain a Froome counter we need to form theories for Froome to gain more time, which means either winning stages or getting away in a break. Unless we have a way into Sky's race director's "office" we only have the opinion that it's likely that they're working on some strategy or tatcic for Froome to gain more time, but what and where is unknowable, and leads to our own ideas, only.

One of the ideas I have presented is unlikely, but not impossible. I needn't have a bet anymore and be quite happy with my first vuelta race result, a profit as I finish in green one way or the other, Cobo or Froome. But I'm a punter and it's exciting to try and go for, and succeed, in finding a third and final winner of the race. The odds are in my favour as they appear good value, although I have noted the incredible over-round on stage betting markets also, which would suggest an uncompetitive market. The GC market is strange if you take into account that there are only two realistic chances now, which total about 60%, and only a couple more should be 99-1 and the rest 999-1. So perhaps conservatively, 70% in total, yet it's 105%. So, all this suggests to me, at least, that the market is as I have said in relation to Cobo's price and I therefore really see it as the following:

Cobo	1.56
Wiggens	2.45
Any other rider	50.0

Not likely a market on an open exchange, but what I see as value.

Cheers,
SP

Ooops...my apologies, like this even:

Cobo	1.56
Froome	2.45
Any other rider	50.0

Cheers,
SP

Since I have influenced one or two people on this thread with what I have said, it is important that I state quite clearly that I don't propose anyone to lay their Cobo green as Dope is inferring in his post just below my own. This is something I'm choosing to do, some more, as I had got on Cobo prior to his eventual price crash. I've also backed some Froome, because of the value I've presented on the table above.

Clearly Cobo is in the box-seat, but to my analysis the price discrepancy which exists between them is not what I think reflects the true accuracy of the contest still to be played out between them.

Best wishes,
SP

Wiggins with two Is.

Froome is a marked man he cannot get into any breaks, he has no chance.

Dope:

Acknowledged! Wiggins.

How is your book looking, got a story to tell on the Vuelta?

Cheers,
SP.

"Froome's agent said on Thursday that eight teams are in contention for his services. The Kenyan-born Briton is out of contract at Team Sky but the British team hope to retain him for 2012, although other teams in the hunt include Garmin-Cervélo, Astana, Ag2r of France and Skil-Shimano of the Netherlands."
Great timing being out of contract.

Watched a live interview in advance of coverage of yesterday's stage with Shane Sutton, Team Sky Sporting Director, being asked about this very question. I think Froome's agent is playing the cunning role well by shopping him around, because it became quite clear that Sky will want to be keeping him. I suspect that if they do, it'll be for a little more than the current contract. Cheers, SP.

todays stage the value has got be this:

Sagan to beat Nibali 2.6

Sagan is 10s to win stage nibali is 20s, thats just an aside, nibali has not been able since the last week, sagan is seeking points to win the points jersey, far tooo big iv taken it for few bob

bad move by sky. They could have no doubt got him to sign a contract(a few weeks ago) for probably 1/2 or even a 1/3 of what he will be wanting(quite rightly) now.
To all intents & purposes they where probably going to let him go.
Now a very valuable asset that they cant afford to let go can climb & time trial.
A Team Trial in the tour de france Sky would take some pegging back with Wiggins/Froome/Eddie B & /G.T

Would he be a possible for the team pursuit track for 2012 olympics?

Well, that's about curtains on the Vuelta, the first Vuelta for me. There's been some talk in the last day that with such a small margin between the two at the top, that the accepted tradition of the racing's off policy on the final day of a grand tour won't be adhered, but even if that were the case than Cobo cannot lose, now. Froome would have to win all the sprints and even the final one to win outright, and there's no possible chance that this can happen. The best Sky can do - according to my calculations - is to close the margin to 6 seconds, before the final sprint to end this tour. This is unlikely given the disappointing effort on stage 20 where Froome raced for the top of the climb and not the sprint which came later and Wiggins won. Amateur stuff that, but they kept Cobo and the Geox team honest, and credit where credit is due, Geox did well to control things over the last two stages.

I did end up laying Cobo some and backing Froome, but maintained a field-green finish to my book which I accept happily as is. The Stage Book I never did recover to the lofty profit after picking the 2nd stage winner, but did finish in green there also, albeit marginally.

With such loyalty to Sutton, I'll have him again for the final sprint in Madrid, which no doubt will come down to a bunch sprint finish, but I'll include a saver on another Australian, Leigh Howard; he's a former track champion who is still only a kid in the Big Time, and has a lot to learn in this arena, I'd imagine; but he may come close to a victory if he can jump early as he doesn't have the raw power to come over the top of someone like Haedo, who I'll also throw in as an anchoring, if likely much shorter, saver.

Hope you gents enjoyed the tour around the country of Spain as much as I, and backed a few winners, or in the least finished in the black. Really appreciated the beauty of the country in the last few stages. My thanks to those who posted, appreciate you taking the time to include me in the discussion, and yes that even means you hippie. Perhaps you can be less difficult in future with people, certainly no hard feelings from me.

So, thanks again and best wishes gents, wishing you,
SwingingPick.

I am expecting Degenkolb to compete the sprint today and not Howard. They both race for HTC and have been taking it in turns, Degenkolb's turn today.

Final GC standings:

1 61   COBO, Juan José GEO       84h 59' 31'' WON.
2 183  FROOME, Christopher SKY         + 13''
3 188  WIGGINS, Bradley SKY         + 1' 39''
4 157  MOLLEMA, Bauke RAB           + 2' 03''
5 65   MENCHOV, Denis GEO           + 3' 48''
6 104  MONFORT, Maxime LEO          + 4' 13''
7 1    NIBALI, Vincenzo LIQ         + 4' 31''
8 127  VAN DEN BROECK, Jurgen OLO   + 4' 45''
9 85   MORENO, Daniel KAT           + 5' 20''
10 54  NIEVE, Mikel EUS             + 5' 33''


~~ THREAD END ~~

ITV aussie commentator who was he.
Did me head in with the Vuelta A   (aghh!!)

Ummm... not sure with ITV as I think that's a British network, and I watched some live stages on the t.v. with SBS network here in Australia, and the rest on Eurosport on the internet. The only Aussie commentator that fits the bill you describe however, for having nothing worthwhile to say and being totally irritating, that I can think of is, Mathew Keenan. Did SBS's daily highlights show and the introduction to live pictures, and if that is him than I totally agree that he is very poor. Cycling commentary should only be handled by Phil and Paul, they should have a Phil and Paul school for future cycling commentators actually, and only when they sound the same do they get to pass and be approved for official commentary,a dn then only in a small capacity.

Got this one studio co-host chap, Dave McKenzie, over here, who is totally unprofessional, laughing at the riders after making some moronic and juvenile comments about them only needing to be topped-up and off they go on another stage, or something equally as lame. Just because he was a former pro rider does not give him automatic credibility in the role of co-host. Total dunce.

Give me Paul Sherwin and Phil Liggett, or nobody. Ah, spoilt in the Tour.

Hang on a minute though, didn't I close this thread? You want to talk commentary and commentators suitability you open a new thread thanks, geoff m. Hehe!

Cheers,
SP

~~ THREAD CLOSED BY AUTHOR OF THREAD ~~

That Aussie commentator really was irritating. I think that with a sport like cycling, you need two people commentating so they can bounce off each other, because what's happening on the road isn't always that exciting.

Just to say SP was right, the deathly dull commentator was Matt Keenan. No more posts from me on this thread, but he just had to be named and shamed :-)