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I'd love to see how the odds compilers make a book on this now, i'm trying to think if i was forced to make a book before tomorrow
how i would price it up, it looks the most wide open in years especially if Tommy realises if he held back on all those early mad attacks
he actually has a serious chance of winning it with the right preperation.
At a wild early guess, i would go 2/1 Andy Schlek, 5/2 Contador, 5/1 Cadel, 14/1 voeckler, 16/1 Wiggins, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, 25/1 Frank Schlek, 33/1 Sanchez 50/1 Basso
Would any of you bite my hand off for any of those ?
how i would price it up, it looks the most wide open in years especially if Tommy realises if he held back on all those early mad attacks
he actually has a serious chance of winning it with the right preperation.
At a wild early guess, i would go 2/1 Andy Schlek, 5/2 Contador, 5/1 Cadel, 14/1 voeckler, 16/1 Wiggins, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, 25/1 Frank Schlek, 33/1 Sanchez 50/1 Basso
Would any of you bite my hand off for any of those ?
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What price Rolland please? Voeckler may not even be team leader next year.
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The only one of those prices I would be interested in would be Sanchez at 33/1
I think you've probably underestimated the yellow jersey effect on Voecklers performance this year. His team has 2 potentially better GC riders in Rolland and Kern who I would expect to out perform him next year. |
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Depends if Tommy decides next year could be best and only chance to win in and trains espcially for that alone.
Sorry was always going to miss out one promising climber from that better in Rolland who i would put in with a cautionary 25/1. |
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Wiggins would be getting my virtual £50 at the moment, has a very strong team which will only get better with the bankroll Sky has, really hoping they do NOT sign Cavendish.
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Wiggins will be focusing on the Olympics next year, Brailsford has already said Tour is taking a back seat. Voeckler benefitted from being in a break, without it he's never a GC contender.
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I assume Wiggins will be riding in the road race at the Olympics which is equivalent to a spring classic, so one day of racing. If I am mistaken and Wiggins is going back to the track then I will happily laugh Team Sky all the way out of the Tour. For anybody to even concieve the Olympics is more prestigious than the Tour is a joke.
Can you give me a link to the article confirming what you have suggested please? |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cycling/14127152.stm
His own words on camera. I agree with you by the way, the Tour is bigger. |
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Oh and the reason I presume it includes Wiggins on the track is because he was tweeting about not getting Velodrome tickets for his family after the ballot. Unless he was just making a point about the system.
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I agree with others, some of our boys dont seem to understand that the TDF is the holy grail of cycling, Wiggins should
worry about a gold medal in 4 years time, he has plenty of gold medals, winning the TDF would be something this country is crying out to see in cycling and he is close and has a real chance now. |
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That is all his opinion. Wiggins and Shaun Yates may have something else to say.
Wiggins is about 50/1 to win a single stage road race, he doesn't have the acceleration IMO. You disagree? |
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Obviously you'd have Cavendish as the main man for the RR. It's just that the impression I got was Wiggins was going for a track medal which would definitely cause him to consider his TdF effort. Like I said though, I agree with you and would like him to target the Tour. Lot of time between now and then so we'll have to wait and see.
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i think you would get killed at 5/2 Alberto
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Possibly but he is no longer then odds on shot he used to be, there's too many pretenders to make him odds on, as a layer
i would look at how many riders i have on my side if i laid contador, the stupid thing is those who back a favourite in the TDF before it starts, how many riders start fav and see the price stay the same or shorten, if you click the graphs year on year every fancied rider has a spike in their price, it's almost impossible to have a trouble free run thesedays or a few mins up a mountain where you struggle or a mechanical hiccup so if contador is 1.7 or lower next year i will get my lay in for big money, you have a awful lot going on your side as a layer of odds on so early or before the race. |
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Think he's going back to the track, but if Wiggins went all out for the Olympic road time trial he'd change his body type as well. If Cavendish joins Sky next year then Wiggins isn't going to be the priority anyway.
Contador will win easy if doesn't have a Giro in him next year. |
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I'm interested to know why you have Jurgen Van De Broeck at 16/1. I had a small bet at 66/1 for this year. It's not that I disagree though I thought 66-1 was a good price.
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Erm, surely it's worth mentioning the fact that Contador could well be banned.
He makes up 29% of your suggested book. |
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Yup, all pointless speculation really as so much can happen in the next year. Form, racing targets, bans, team changes. Why even worry about prices for it now?
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Well if you got a great price on betfair early on then it would be worth it, 2 bookies have made a book
and it shows how hard it is to price up at the moment. One had Cadel 9/2 the other 12/1 ! They are still wary of Contador but they dont have him odds on now but my 5/2 would probably have been hammered if you can wait a year to collect should he win. Roland 80/1 Paddy Power for those that are interested, Bradly 25/1, Nibali cautious 40/1 with both, i wanted to back him if he ever starts a TDF, Jurgen Van Den Broeck 50/1, Valverde just 20/1 and Menchov 66/1 if they return, i think both maybe had their chance. |
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With your original prices, I think Schleck my be a little long at 2/1. That's just my gut instinct though.
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Voeckler 250/1 :)
Not heard of this valverde guy, and can't find a price for Vandeveerte(sp? the guy who won a mountain stage this year) |
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Reezy.
I've just noticed Voeckler at 150/1, wow, take it he was 250/1 at first, now if Contador got banned as well it could be a value punt, i wonder if Tommy actually realises after this years tour what he can do now if he preserves his energy until the mountains, he was attacking in virtually every stage, might have to toodle pip down to William Hill's for a small wager on that one ! |
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ha ha what a time to be totally skint, however i've just made a Ladbrokes girls day by turning up at her
shop with a bag full of 5-10p i've been putting in a jar for months which came to the surprising total of £17.60 which all went on Tommy to win at 250/1, tell you what if Contador was banned and Tommy got the yellow again his odds on Betfair could easily again go under 20-1 and they did go under 10-1 so you dont have to put a lot on now to take a chance, even £20 win is £5000, dreaming yes but investing a realistic proposal if you can have a bit of dough in betfair next year to lay him off is he looks good again. |
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lol
Ladbrokes have suspended their betting on Tommy, surely they take more than £17 before pulling a price ;-)) Hope some others got on, talk about value ! |
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Surely the other riders will take him more seriously next year, and so he'll never be allowed to get such a lead again.
Anyway I still see him at 250/1 on laddies. |
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my fav would be Evans. he's proved he's just as good as anyone when they're all clean. 35 isnt too old nowadays, look at chris horner who won the tour of california recently in good style and he's 37/38.
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Yes is Evans cannot be broken again then he is good value but like a horse they win when unfancied and then next time
out when everybody backs it they run terrible, would not be surprised to see Cadel do the same when he's the smallest price ever for him pre-market. Had some more Tommy 250-1 at Ladbrokes, they seem happy to take it but i see it as investing with a view to laying off on betfair if something similar happens, just think where he might have been with more conserving of energy in the early stages ? |
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voeckler's a decent rider but i really cant have him as a TDF winner. he's just not in that league
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ASO gave a sneak preview of the parcours for 2012 (by mistake) on their website today. Bottom line - heavy on individual time trials, light on climbing. Not what the Schlecks wanted to see. More details to come from the official presentation next week
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