Samuel Sanchez

1) He's too close to the top of the GC now so any attack will be chased down immediately.

2) He could well ovehaul one or two other GC contenders. It's highly unlikely he will overhaul them all though.


That's my view on it.

@Herbie Peanut

You raise a reasonable question, especially for someone new to the Tour, and by no means am I an expert, regarding my knowledge of this subject as workmanlike. I'm sure others might offer more detailed and informative details. Someone like red and white, who you may notice accurately selected Sanchez as the winner of the 12th stage on a thread I authored, is likely the most knowledgeable on this rider in recent days from the regular posters, but I'll offer what I think is behind his long price in the market, to start things off.

Sanchez is a rider who is regarded more as a breakaway rider in the mountains, someone who is given a margin of freedom or leeway - to ride away from an elite group of riders for the stage win. This is why some regard him as an expert classics rider of hilly routes. No one thinks he's at the Tour to win the General Classification (or the Yellow jersey in Paris with the fastest time of the circumnavigation of France). Therefore, the gaps he forms during a mountain stage aren't closed and his attempt at a stage victory is regarded by others as an attempt for just that: the stage. His price reflects perhaps, more his ambition (or lack of it) than his skill, talent, and ability.

Currently; he is 3'44 behind Voeckler, having won the 12th stage by 17 secs over the first of the likley contenders, that being Frank Schleck; and gaining 25 secs from Andy Schleck in the 14th stage where he came second. If we were to say to add those two time gaps to find an average over the Principals we would get 21 secs - on average he is better in the mountains than the Principals in this year's race. With less than a handful of stage remaining where he could continue to gain such times, his dividend accurately reflects his likelihood of winning the Tour. And even should he break his brand in the race by going for a gap which is six times greater than the average I proposed - he will become regarded with more hostility by the other teams, and his chances retarded as a result. Moreover, even if he was regarded as a serious contender for the GC his time is beyond contemplation to narrow, with the form he has shown in his career to date.

I think, that if you are looking for value in the race you should consider Frank Schleck as he is the best placed of those considered to be in contention initially, 17 secs ahead of Evans and only 1'49 behind Voeckler. Also, he showed some real zip late on the relatively flat part of the 12th stage to finish 3rd, but more importantly, 13 secs ahead of the Principals. In a year where the race is wide open, this was the only evidence to me that after a long mountain stage where attacks were made and defended, a rider still had a lively kick to the line.

Hope this helps you some.

Cheers,
SP

Thanks for the comments that makes things a little clearer.

I backed Sanchez to finish on the podium before the Pyrenees but don't believe he can win this year. He was unfortunate to lose all that time during the big pile up early in the tour (as was Contador) which I think ruined his chance of winning. It seemed clear to me he was more intent on winning stage 12 than the overall race. He had a chance to get some serious time back off his rivals but was playing cat and mouse with Vanendert over the last 2km. Look how quickly Frank Schleck closed them down. I would love to see him go well in the Alps but it takes a great rider to go well in the Alps and the Pyrenees on the same tour as they are very different tests.

Frank Schleck, interesting... What about his brotherly responsibilities (joint leaders really?)? Hes also a pretty awful ITTer is he not? Im guessing he would need a lot more than 17 secs on Evans going into that stage. Maybe three minutes?

What about Contador? Seems a great price right now IF the problems in the Pyrenees were to do with his crashes rather than being wrecked after the Giro. He's capable of a big TT too.

Where would we rate Sanchez as a time trialler?

Of the favourites, third behind Evans and Contador.

Could someone please confirm whether Sanchez must actually complete the Tour in order to be the winner of the Mountains classification.

i would like to know the answer to that also, have backed him at 33s and just laid him at 1.01 just in case!

I'm in the same position, except haven't laid yet. Would hate him to crash round Grenoble, then I'd feel pretty stupid.

Backside started to twitch so im out with a healthy profit, thank god A Schleck hit a wall in the last 50 yards, going from 4th to 9th

Just found the answer here: http://www.cvccbike.com/tour/eddy/xtra_bestanden/polkadot.htm

Have taken the prudent course at 1.02.