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Went into the mountains in yellow last year and finished 45 mins behind at the end, 34 years old, couldn't beat Sastre (one of the weakest ever Tour winners) in his 'prime', just a few seconds ahead of all contenders bar Contador and Sanchez and his price has dropped by 75%. OK, he has been very prominent in the first week but is his chance of winning or being in the Top 3 that much greater than Gesink, Van Den Broeck, Basso etc?
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Complelty agree - will finish around 6th
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he did have a broken elbow last year to be fair.
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The exposure he has enjoyed has affected his price for sure.
I don't ever recall watching him climbing and thinking "wow this guy could win a tour". He couldn't even hang onto the big boys in the Dauphine, apparently he rides his "own relentless pace" a pace which will see him dropped the moment the afterburners are set alight on a HC climb. Finishes 8th about 18 mins down IMO |
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No serious climbs until thursday, his price may come in a little more before then.
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I was going to lay him for a top 6 - think his performance in the Mur De Bretagne (or whatever it's called) has seen his price tumble. But much more required in the high mountains.
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However, the climbers around his level, e.g. Kruizeiger, Wiggins, Leipheimer and Horner have all either retired or lost several minutes already. So Basso, Gesink and those type of riders will need to be at their best to keep him out of the top 6.
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If you need to rely on Basso then I would rethink that bet
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I'm not a cycling expert but enjoy Le Tour.
The official website is great for looking at races that will have a big bearing on the overall winner but I wondered what stages you guys think will be of most significance. I'm talking about the classic Schlek-Contador stage last year (before the final time trial I think) where Contador graciously gave it to Schlek after a titanic duel up the mountain. What is the year's equivalent please? |
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Stage 18 for me although the following day will probably be as exciting.
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There are four very hard mountain stages this year
Pyrenees Stage 12 - Tourmalet (the other side to last year) + Luz Ardiden finish Stage 14 - Plateau de Beille finish after 5 previous climbs. Probably the hardest finish Alps Stage 18 - Galibier finish - not steep but very long and the highest ever summit finish in a Tour (2.6km above sea level) Stage 19 - Alpe d'Huez finish - the most famous Tour climb |
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Thanks
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A good lay for Yellow but I sure would not want to lay him top 6...
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Will def hit the wall in one of the mountain stages
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i don't think he'll win, but for sure a good chance of finishing 3rd. Gesink should beforehand be one of the main challengers for the last podium place, but he looked just awful today being dropped twice and lost about a minute. Then there is Basso, van den Broeck, Sanchez and the likes, but imo Evans will be stronger than any of them when combining mountain and tt.
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I've laid Evans to finish top 3 and await one of his bad days in the mountains. 2.02 at the moment seems aweful value.
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If A.Schleck or Contador show some decent form in the high mountains, there is no chance Evans can follow. Evans finished 2 times as runner-up in the TdF when the competition was pretty weak: in 2007 he was beaten by a very young and inexperienced Contador and in 2008 he was beaten by Sastre and only had a small margin on no3 Kohl and no4 Menchov.
Evans looked good so far,but there have been no serious mountains. The only way he can win is if A.Schleck and Contador abandon or are in terrible shape. |
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http://stevenoiresport.blogspot.com/
Very funny article about Cadel Evans here |
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Nice one. He certainly seems a quirky character.
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Yes, Valuebet has identified the situation very accurately, in my view.
Cadel Evans has never proved he has more than one cadence in the mountains. If Contador or A. Schleck were attacking each other last year, you knew they would always have an answer for each other. With Cadel, sadly, he always seems slow and laborious to get going in answering an attack. He doesn't have the nibbleness (in going uphill) of A.Schleck or the surge of power of Contador. He is the obvious lay to win the Tour, the only drawback is waiting more than a week to claim your return. So, where does that leave Contador and A.Schleck? Well, Contador seems uncomfortable to me, and A.Schleck has got nothing to show he's in even in form. Even with so many questions on these two big names to win the GC, I still do not see Cadel Evans winning. Basso, might get some good assistance from the Polish riders in his team to pilfer a stage in the mountains, but I can't have him, either. A very confident, if a long wait, sees a lay on Cadel Evans, for me. Cheers, SP |
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Evans style of riding seems to be not to react instantly to an attack but gradually increase his pace and claw back the distance that way.
I don't ever recall him attacking on a HC climb but he won't need to as he already leads Bertie and Schleck and he is the better time trialist. He is in prime position at the moment in that he doesn't have to attack. Now obviously Contador is going to try to attack often tomorrow but he hardly seems in great condition. He could easily lose a stack of time tomorrow if he bonks. Schleck is not an explosive kind of rider who can burst out of a pack, he much prefers to stick to early attacks and then test maybe one or two other riders when the group is very small. I have a vision of Schleck and Evans going head to head in the Alps. In Andy's favour is that he has Franck and Fuglsang to help test out Evans if it does come to a head to head. |
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I realise this is a contradiction to what I have predicted earlier on this thread but GC men are dropping like flies.
Nothing against Cadel but seems like a step back for the sport if he wins the maillot-jaune. |
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@ MeatIsMurder
You bring up some interesting points. Cadel is effectively leading the GC. But only by a handful of seconds from the Schlecks and a pinch & a fart from Contador. I have hardly ever seen him, never I think, claw back a substantial breakaway. I think early on in his career, he attacked on a climb, and quickly realized that it didn't suit him to do so, henceforth abandoning such moves and rebranding his style of riding. But of course, you are correct in that he doesn't have to attack. But then again, he does have to defend, and yes he may get some effective assistance from his team, but eventually only he will be left, and when a rider such as Andy drops the hammer, he'll leave Cadel behind. There will be no way, since there is no evidence, ever, that he will be able to claw back an inspired attack by someone with the ability of Andy and Contador. It just won't happen, and all he'll do, is what he's always been able to do, and that is to plug away in that uncomfortable fashion of his. Admittedly, he is the best TT-ist of the Schlecks and Contador, and he'll be suited by the distance to bury himself for a fair effort. But by that time will he even have anything to defend or claw back? Contador, I agree, doesn't look imposing, and tomorrow will give everyone a better idea of what's going on with him, and indeed the Schlecks. However, you don't just lose the ability to rip over the mountains like these three can do, and I think we'll find that not much has changed and that they haven't lost their ability to climb, in the period of a year. Unlikely, I feel, that he will do anything other than set-up the prologue to a familiar story, of a fight with the Schlecks and one other, perhaps. (I have a name but it escapes me at the moment.) I agree with you that Andy won't explode out of the pack, but instead hang around until the group becomes smaller - at least that is what he's done in the past - before testing whoever's left remaining, by making an acceleration, and yes an explosive form of attack. Cadel will never have that kind of acceleration, and even if he forgets himself in trying to answer attacks, he'll quickly tire himself and that'll just mean he puts up the flag of surrender and do his usual plugging away ride to the finish. Cadel Evans just doesn't have what it takes to answer attacks, this is really obvious to me, and I always draw a smile when the Aussie media talk up his chances, because all they're doing is helping to maintain a competitive price to his odds. But let me drill down in this manner: If it's Evans v. Schleck - as you think - in the Alps; then Schleck has proven he has an effective kick on steep gradients, and therefore the ability to ride away from riders which have real power and acceleration. And so what can Evans really do to contain him? Can he really claw back a few seconds at a time for each stage, and hope it will be enough going into the ITT, when the margin will continue increasing? Can he take chances on the decents, and hope for a few seconds here or there? Evans simply doesn't have the weapons to answer real climbers such as the Schlecks and Contador. He might not need to have those weapons if these others don't even arrive onto the battlefield. But what are the chances of that happening? Andy has had no form, granted, but he's a little too quite for my liking to think he's got nothing. And don't forget that his brother is fully-equipped do be as devasting as him, if he feels good, and is told to do so. In conclusion; there's just too many strong riders standing in Evans' way, to think that Evans has any chance in winning the GC this year. All I hope is that they won't be literally standing in his way, but showing us time and again their time and again proven performances in the mountains being repeated. Sadly perhaps, Cadel Evans has proven time and again that he is only good at one thing: Giving the impression of a real chance for the GC win in Paris. I maintain a strong confidence in the prediction that Evans is a good bet to lay for the GC. What's in the market will quickly change tomorrow, after it's shown that Cadel Evans isn't even a one-trick pony. Just the same trickster he's always been to hold onto a lucrative team contract. Cheers, SP |
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Excellent write up mate.
I agree with pretty much everything you say. I will just raise a couple of points to be awkward. 1. I am not sure Andy Schleck has proven he has an effective kick on steep gradients, last year he just stuck to Contador's wheel as he blew away the pack, that is admirable in itself but when he did have to attack Contador, the stage was set on the Tourmalet, he was incapable, Contador coped easily with him and then gifted him the stage win as recompense for attacking when Andy's chain came on a stage or two earlier. 2. If Contador cannot decimate the pack this year then the onus will fall on Andy to take up the mantle, again he has not yet proven to me that he is capable of doing this, if he cannot then it becomes exponentially more difficult to drop Evans, even if he slips off the back of a ten man group then it is far easier for him to work his way back one rider at a time. 3. I think you overestimate the prowess of Frank Schleck. |
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Evans 1.89 to finish in the top 3 looks woeful value. The tour starts for real tommorrow and there is always
at least 2 people who weren't strongly considered who ride above themselves. Throw in the fact that he's getting older and is capable of blowing up on one of the stages and the 1.89 looks well underpriced. It's all based on him looking good in the phoney war, pre-mountain stages. It won't take too many mountain stages to find him out. |
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Excellent write up mate.
Thanks mate, I appreciate that, very kind of you to say. I agree with pretty much everything you say. I will just raise a couple of points to be awkward. I think being awkward for a valid purpose is good, whilst being awkward just for the sake of it, is unappealing. I acknowledge that you are being awkward for the purpose of sharpening our read of the situation under discussion, and the important questions raised to earn a quid with a bet one way or the other. 1. I am not sure Andy Schleck has proven he has an effective kick on steep gradients, last year he just stuck to Contador's wheel as he blew away the pack, that is admirable in itself but when he did have to attack Contador, the stage was set on the Tourmalet, he was incapable, Contador coped easily with him and then gifted him the stage win as recompense for attacking when Andy's chain came on a stage or two earlier. Your overall memory of their sparring is in the ascendancy to mine I feel, but I do remember the chain incident well, and from what I remember Contador was sticking with him, but it also seemed like they were going pretty fast, nearing the pass. Certainly they were doing the kind of speed which Evans would have no hope in matching. Absolutely none, even if he found himself magically with them, he soon wouldn't be. So, I'm open to admitting that there's a question mark over the effectiveness of his kick on steep gradients. With so many other unknowns, this brings Contador ahead of Andy Schleck, on having the kind of riding needed to ride off his wheel. It feels narrow or slight, but it's admittedly a valid point to consider. 2. If Contador cannot decimate the pack this year then the onus will fall on Andy to take up the mantle, again he has not yet proven to me that he is capable of doing this, if he cannot then it becomes exponentially more difficult to drop Evans, even if he slips off the back of a ten man group then it is far easier for him to work his way back one rider at a time. Okay, he works his way one rider at-a-time up a long steep climb in his uncomfortable style, I put it to you he will only ever cover 80% of them at best, leaving two. Two which he won't catch, because of the different style of riding going on. Contador has the most to make up, he has to be the one to attack and therefore attack at the first mountain stage. He cannot put himself in a position where mountain stages begin to look like they might start running out for him. He has only this one option, his in no position to take up a position of observation unless he's playing his cards close to his chest for say Alp d'Huez. Let's look at it one step at a time then, Contador decimates the pack, like we know he can. He doesn't, Andy sees his opportunity to try to attempt to do the same, having his brother as a worthy accomplice in the early proceedings. In fact, he has his brother with him to prevent Contador dictating terms. I like Contador still, but it's advantage Andy. 3. I think you overestimate the prowess of Frank Schleck. You may be right. However, it always seems to me that when you have riders who are brothers you're never going to get the full picture, since even their parents won't be there when they talk tactics. It seems to me that there could be a game between them which no one will ever be privy to bar them. Acknowledging that this may be an accurate read of the situation between two brothers which are so close, suggests to me that I should give Frank the benefit of the doubt that I haven't seen the best of him because he hasn't wanted to - perhaps because he promised his brother in a wager - show me his best, yet. The question is raised: How have they performed when seperate from one another? Has Frank ever shown he can do what Andy can, when Andy wasn't there beside him, or simply wasn't there in the same race as him? Cheers, SP |
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It's all based on him looking good in the phoney war, pre-mountain stages. It won't take too many mountain stages to find him out.
I hold the same opinion, he works very hard to build himself or rather his image, into a worthy contender for the mountains looming, but always finds a reason for his poor performance. He is always found out, and always relies on some cockameme story. And every time people buy into his unlucky nature, when they aren't willing to accept that he is stuck in one gear, literally. Cheers, SP |
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I realise this is a contradiction to what I have predicted earlier on this thread but GC men are dropping like flies.
othing against Cadel but seems like a step back for the sport if he wins the maNillot-jaune. when is it a step back for a world champ to win the tour...Cadel is by a far a better rider then the Schleck brothers..he a very good Time T, he a very good in the hills, and he a very good single day classic rider (road world champ) Contador had a bad tour, and look bad today , and lost time at the end today to Cadel is look very strong every race day this tour..and i must say i never seen him look this good....I lay Contador and 2.00-2.20 and back Evans at 7.00-7.40. so im happy where i'am at this point |
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when is it a step back for a world champION to win the tour? Cadel is by far a better rider than the Schleck brothers..he IS a very good Time TRIALIST, he IS very good in the hills and he IS a very good single day classic rider (road world champ)
Contador HAS had a bad tour and lookED bad today and HAS lost time at the end today toO Cadel is lookING very strong DURING every race day this tour...and I must say I HAVE never seen him lookING this good....I HAVE layED Contador AT 2.00-2.20 and HAVE backED Evans at 7.00-7.40 AND THEREFORE I'm happy where I am at this point IN TIME. In case you were wondering, nice after-timing too!![;)][;)] |
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my post was made after stage 13th and base on what i seen up on till this time...but my bets where not
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you're a spelling teacher to? i can't spell, but im good at betting
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my post was made after stage 13th and base on what i seen up on till this time...but my bets where not
no wonder you are good at betting you already know the winner of stage 13  |
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if this was true...i be happy with betfair only taking 40% of my profit :)
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Thanks for telling us all this 5 days ago when this thread was created, oh wait...
By the way if you think Cadel Evans is a far better rider than Andy Schleck then you won't be paying Betfair 40% for too long. Gl |
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I'm not convinced by Andy's form either, did you notice yesterday after about the 3rd little dig by Frank he looked back to make eye contact with Andy and he gave Frank a little shake of the head as if to say 'I can't go any harder'. It was then when Frank pushed on, it surprised me none of the comms picked up on it. May be part of the bluffing game but I do wonder, he nearly fell off his bike crossing the line he put so much in.
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frank def looked the stronger yesterday what time advantage would he need in the tt looks as if the giro has done for contador andy was also dropped in the earlier stage were the excuse was the climb was too short and explosive but doesn't look great at the mo things can change quickly in the mountains finding it hard to pick the winner
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what has Andy Schleck done that Evans hasn't done? Andy is a better in hills , but Evans is better
going down hilss, on the flat and TT Andy Schleck doesn't win to many races |
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It's hard to lose 10 mins going downhill.
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10 min :) Schleck going to be superman and fly up those hills
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evans is a fraud im sure he rates himself a great climber but when does/is he going to attack on a big mountain, its always defend defend defend you might win the tour cadel but contador armstrong indurain you are not
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