Tour De France

He may well be a non-runner. I thought the original plan was to ride the Giro / Vuelta and skip the Tour, same as last year

Liquigas have Basso for the Tour I think.

I'm not sure if Nibali is good enough to handle the Schlecks and Contador in the mountains in any case. He should take time off the former in the individual time trial but probably not enough.

To be honest, I think it'll be between Andy and Alberto again. With Frank third.

Anyone got any significant reason why Nibali can not get a top 3 finish in the TDF

Yes. In one word drugs.
If he or his team hasn`t sorted out that issue (ie. making sure he has the newest ones & that he doesn`t get busted)poor Nibali has virtualy no chance of placing in this event.

Please don`t be fooled into thinking that this is some kind of sporting event where the best man wins and the second best man comes second etc. etc.

i think 3rd between sanchez, vdb, and possibly wiggins. frank will be helping andy to his own detriment. nibali not good enuff in mountains, drugs or not. and as for the best man dont win if andy and contador are on drugs then the event is still even because no one else is good enuff climber to challenge anyway. and when people are on drugs it shows by their unusually increased performance, rumsas, rasmusen, rico ect, ect.

I'm laying Evans for the podium, can see him having a bad day which pushes him out of contention. Not sure about Wiggins, he looks in better shape than last year but I feel he really benefitted from the route they used when he finished 4th so may lay him too.

Agree with atallbloke about Wiggins 4th place. Didnt really race up the mountains that year and when they did he was dropped every time.I feel he will have a shocker one day in the mountains and lose all interest afterwards.A good lay for a top 6 finish a classic lay for top 3 imo.

wiggins will do well to come top 8.

gilbert for stage 1

What about the green jersey? Any value in Goss @ 66/1?

Contadope - Schleck - Sammy.

although remains to be seen just how much the Giro took out of Contador...

Wiggins... top 10.

Contador rode the Giro to win as he was not sure to be able to start the Tour. The final week was brutal and although Contador was the dominant rider, he may well have taken a lot out of himself.

In last year's Tour de France, Andy S had the misfortune to fall in an early stage and then there was 'Chaingate'. Despite these setbacks there was little time between them at the finish.

Leopardtrek ought to put some time into Saxobank in the Team TT which will put Contador under more pressure than perhaps he is used to. He will have to eat plenty of steak to make up the leeway :)

think andy schleck is a great bet... contrador will be pretty tired, schleck aiming for this race this year.

as avontuur said last year was close, under a minute i think - plus schleck had 'chaingate' and his brother broke his collarbone

wiggins will struggle this year imo

best stage review i have found:
http://road.cc/content/feature/37975-tour-de-france-2011-preview-our-guide-cyclings-biggest-race

if u bet on andy remember he will lose minutes in long tt and he can't match conta's acceleration on mountains, and evans and frank lay for podium. value on hushovd and jvdb for stage win i reckon

Contador looks pretty bombproof to me. I thought his performance in the Giro, which was a brutal parcours, was absolutely dominant. From the moment he attacked on Etna they knew they were beaten.

I think Andy Shleck will struggle. His form has been pretty rank all season and he's tactically inept. Even if they do isolate Contador I don't think they will be able to drop him. I think Contador's biggest problem could come from the side of the road rather than on it. 

I would prefer backing a fresh Cadel for 2nd place, knowing that he will be in the wheel most of the time, and has a lovely looking time trial on the penultimate day.

Clenbuterolador - Cadel - Andy Schleck



Also liking Levi and Gadret for top ten finishes.

Expecting to see a re-run of last two years..but with the silver lining another interesting first week.

Think there is some value in Cadel...but do I honestly think he will build up a big enough cushion against his inevitable HC losses...?

Well...no. Not a chance.

Not sure I can stand the spectacle of Andy Schleck torpedoing his GC ambitions to help his brother finish fifth ...but will settle for an epic HC cat & mouse battle with Contador [like Tourmalet 2010] again

Hopefully Gilbert will cheer me up in week one.

Have had a stupid bet at an even stupider price for JVDB on GC...just in case it all kicks off unexpectedly.

and Hushovd for green...because he might not be fast enough on the flat anymore...but week one might keep him in contention..and then it's intermediate sprint time...

He'll probably just be leadout for Farrar..

Have gone with Gesink for the [thankfully] revamped KotM..but he really needs to get himself well out of contention on GC early on to be allowed to go later.

Anyway....Enjoy.

clenbutador - evens with baldie fred

Andy Schleck *should* be the strongest. He's been improving every year, was probably as strong as Contador last year but blew his chance with a series of stupid mistakes. You have to take his form on trust - even he looked somewhat concerned in the Tour de Suisse and I couldn't back him at 3ish without watching him in the first week. I doubt we'll see an end to the stupid mistakes because this new team haven't impressed me at all tactically.

I find it hard to believe that winning the Giro is the best way to prepare for the Tour. Not that the double is impossible of course and it's hard to ignore the 1111111 form figures. I was ready to lay at 1.65 but his price has gone the other way so I'm keeping Contador neutral for now

I see it as more open than the market does. I like the low-key prep of some riders - Evans, Gesink, Vino, Horner, Brajkovic - and I've been loading up the latter three because of the hard-to-resist prices

Behave Schleck has no chance. Contador was awesome in the Italian and made it look effortless & hardly had to empty out to win it did he ? Schleck was totally unimpressive in the Swiss.

He will hack up.

contasor evens with baldies looked awesome in the giro but wouldnt have ridden it if he knew he was definitely riding tdf standout price tt worth 40-60 secs maybe if neccessary so A S would have to win overall in the mountains by more

Well...had my value out of Cadel earlier than expected...

Its certainly a platform...but still think he'll need a few minutes more...

Gadret not recovered from Giro - he will ride to help Roche.

I heard yest sth has changed on giving pts for KOM - what's new or where can I find it pls?

What do you think is the effect of the new format for intermed sprints? Tbh I haven't checked the stage run ins, considering the odds there must be some classic type finishes like yesterday (which I consider good for having interesting racing, why Vino not listed?), are the intermeds all on the flat? I think that would help Farrar or Petacchi (given Thor not really interested and Cav not going to make it to Paris as usual).

cav not getting paris as usual? check the stats mate, he only quit one year so he could train for the olympics but made it ever since. cav will be there in paris winning again but unfortunately dont think he will be in green as these new sprints and this years course will go against him.

Do you think Voeckler has a chance of a top 10 finish, cant see him in the better but he is both good on the flat and climbing. any views?

The KoM points have changed dramtically bb66, it's now very unlikely now anyone who isn't a real decent climber will win the jersey. The points awarded are :

HC: 20,16,12,8,4,2
Cat 1: 10,8,6,4,2,1
Cat 2: 5,3,2,1
Cat 3: 2,1
Cat 4: 1

As you can see it's much more difficult for a lesser climber to win the jersey by hoovering up points on the smaller climbs early on.

no double points for big mountains at the end of stages any more? I think this still leaves the door open for riders present in escape groups on 2 mountain stages, but we'll see.

Opinions on the rule change for the green jersey?

The double points for final climb still stands.

http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/reglements.html

thx for the link, this will make the GC riders competetive for KOM

Small bets at huge prices on S Sanchez and F Shleck,both can climb and anything can happen over 3 weeks,just never know.
As regards Schleck its just possible that his role may change as the race goes on,its possible his brother could end up helping him!! At the prices i'm willing to take a chance on that happening,unlikely as it may seem.

agree on frank!!