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avontuur
28 Jun 10 10:52
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Date Joined: 30 May 02
| Topic/replies: 7,966 | Blogger: avontuur's blog
Alberto ia suffering from flu, can he be dethroned?

Cav won 6 stages last year, an outstanding achievement, but he still couldn't take the green jersey. This year the Tour has less flat stages and Cav doesn't seem to be in quite the same rich vein of form. Can Cav cut it in 2010?

Bradley was magnificent in 2009, can he find that bit extra to make a place on the podium?

All these questions will be answered and more will be posed as the greatest show starts again next weekend.
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Report Princesse D'Anjou June 28, 2010 11:44 AM BST
When is Pro Cycling Manager 2010 released?  All will be revealed day by day on that Laugh
Report Flying_V June 28, 2010 12:12 PM BST
Hopefully dead pop stars will be able to show us the way....I look forward to the daily bulletins from PCM 2010.

Opposing Wiggins at some point. Backed Boasson-Hagen small stakes green & yellow at v long odds. Won't be doing much else until the prologue.
Report Mole Board June 28, 2010 12:22 PM BST
i do think this could be a vintage year.Contador 8/13 value, wiggins just dropped another couple of pounds and has a team geared round him, armstrong just tweeted this - "Last hard ride before the TdF. Test on the Col de la Madone. Record time? No. Close to it? Yes. I'm ready". In my opinion Contador a certainty, only injury or drug scandal can beat him. Can't wait!!
Report Hightown Phil June 28, 2010 5:02 PM BST
Very interesting to read Basso's comments today about really going for it in the mountains. Snaffled up 33/1 on him winning the Polka Dot Jersey after reading this.

'“This Tour has more climbs (than usual) and the time-trial on the penultimate day might not be decisive. If I want to beat Contador, the opportunities are in the Alps and the Pyrenees. I’m praying that I can repeat the magic of the Zoncolan (stage 15 of the Giro), when 3km from the finish I felt a click, something moved inside of me and I went away from Evans”.'

Signals he's going to go for it and win a few climbs and stages. 33/1 looks a superb bet to me.
Report GoBallistic June 28, 2010 6:38 PM BST
Here's a summary of this year's parcours:-

The race kicks off with a traditional short flat prologue in Rotterdam similar to Hyde Park, 2007. The first three stages are potentially more interesting than we usually get in first week :-

1) could be a crosswinds stage although it doesn't look as tough on paper as last year's when Columbia split the race up and Armstrong gained time on Contador
2) Ardennes stage over some of the hills from the spring classics
3) the one everyone is looking forward to apart from the riders - the first proper cobbled stage for over 20 years. OK it doesn't have any of the really tough secteurs from Paris-Roubaix but then that race doesn't contain 60kg climbers - assuming the riders don't go on strike this day, there are going to be some fireworks

When the Giro visited Holland and Belgium this year there were crashes galore and this is going to be the same. Some big names will be knocked out of contention on stages 1-3. If you're money is on Gesink, Menchov, Sastre or Cunego you'll need a prayer mat for these days.

The rest of the race has a more familiar look:- a few routine sprint stages, the Alpes which will be selective but not decisive, some filler stages (barring an exciting short steep finish at Mende) and then the business end - four very tough days in the Pyrennees where the race will be decided, then long TT, Champes-Elysees

Overall I think it's the best route for a while - much more suited to the climbers than last year's as long as they can stay upright during the first week. Minimal dull TT stages (with minimal impact), potentially explosive first week and steeper climbs (in the Pyrennees). Descending ability will also be a big factor
Report seanpantani June 28, 2010 10:19 PM BST
1 - AC: only through accident or expulsion is 'Bertie' not going to win this one.
2 - A Sch: all for him, and with this being the swangsong for Saxo i expect him to podium.
3 - Evans: not the biggest fan but think he'll manage to do this and get on the podium.

Outside money on Basso, who i have heard is looking seriously on form - perfect to peak for wk3.

Usual suspect to make up the rest of the top 10, Wiggo, Kloden, F Sch, Sastre, Vande Velde, also like the look of Di Greg. for a top 10.

Lance will not finish.

Bring on the weekend - although its gonna have to be smething special to beat the Giro.
Report Handsome Frank June 29, 2010 12:37 PM BST
Im in general agreement with most. Penalty kick for Contador, providing he doesn't test positive.

My only concern would be Vino's vaulting ambition. He's never been one to play second fiddle to anyone.

Can't see Basso mounting a challenge as Liquigas were allowed to dominate in the Giro and won't be allowed to do so here. I think it will come down to the Schleck axis to stir up Contador the most. I expect Wiggins to bomb ala Ramondas Rumsas. 

Can't have the likes of Armstrong, Menchov, Evans. They will all be exposed again, although I at least expect Cadel to go down battling (he's worn the rainbow jersey with great credit this year).   

No bets until they are on the line for the prologue but it will mostly be stage to stage for me.

I have one emerging thought at this point. I think the French are in for a good race. Riders like Gadret, Vogondy, Casar and Little Tommy Voeckler have all impressed in earlier races and I can see them winning a good few stages.


As seanpantani says though, the race will have to go some to beat the excitement of the Giro which was just marvellous.
Report the jigger June 29, 2010 6:39 PM BST
The Tour De France has been a good earner for me as i have backed the last 6 winners of the TDF and had a few big priced E/W's and Top 6's too.I will be having a decent E/W bet on Ivan Basso this year as he looks to have probably one of the best teams around him when it comes to the mountains.
Roman Kreuizeger,Sylwester Szmyd and Francesco Bellotti and Ivan Basso are all decent climbers.

It might look like a penalty kick for Contrador but last year he had strong team mates like Leipheimer,Armstrong and Kloden around him.He does not have them this year and The Astana team does look alot weaker this year.

Andy Scleck is another rider i will be having a big E/W bet on.Last year was only his third TDF and he just seems to be getting stronger every year.Bar an accident there is no way he will be out of the first three.

Going to back Liquidgas to win the team Classification as i can see three of their riders finishing in the Top 10 to see them go close.

Also going to back Nicholas Roche to get a Top 6 finish.Last year he managed to get into alot of breakaways.It's a longshot but last year was his first tour and i am sure he has learned alot from it.

Does anyone know if Philip Deignan made the Cervelo Test Team for the TDF.
Report n6 June 29, 2010 9:32 PM BST
Backed Evans for the top 6 at 3.45 and 3.45....an absolute steal for a man who has finished second twice and is current world champion. also backed him at 5.4 for top 3.
Report River Verdon June 30, 2010 10:55 PM BST
Seriously looking forward to this years tour.  My man is Frank Schleck, Andy hasn;t had the best of preprations and Frank could easily be the leader of CSC.  Also when I've watched previously he has been working for other people and I believe the guy is seriously talented.  He is also not a marked man (not as much as his brother)and could be under estimated by the others.

On at 16 EW without Contador, massive on first 6 at 2s and a few schekels on outright.

Any thoguhts
Report BikerBoy July 1, 2010 1:16 PM BST
Contador WONT win.
Armstrong WILL be back to his best and is great value as is Basso.
Report Flying_V July 1, 2010 3:45 PM BST
River Verdon
Frank certainly impressed in the TT at the Suisse...and I'd take him over Wiggins any day....but not until the euphoria of the prologue is out of the way.
Report River Verdon July 1, 2010 5:55 PM BST
Flying V - I just get the impression that he wont be as well marked as some of the others.  Both times he has finished 5th he was working for other people.  He might do again but when it comes to the crunch in the mountains he will be right there.
Report n6 July 1, 2010 9:22 PM BST
bikerboy...I think you're whistling in the wind with Armstrong. Contador pissed all over him last year despite the best efforts of the rest of his 'team' to scupper his chances. He wouldn't have been on the podium if he hadn't made that break in the crosswind and I can't see how he can be any better this year.
Report BikerBoy July 1, 2010 10:06 PM BST
n6, yes he did last year, dont get me wrong im not saying LA will win, just that he is a serious contender this year unlike last year. Im opposing AC with Andy S, Basso and Lance. Let the battle commence, think we could be in for one real good tour this year.
Report JORDI July 2, 2010 3:44 AM BST
what contadors form been like so far
Report GoBallistic July 2, 2010 11:16 AM BST
Contador this season:

Won minor Portuguese stage race
Won Paris-Nice - his first major target
Flopped in Criterium International where he blamed allergies
Won minor Spanish stage race
Very good effort in Ardennes classics esp Fleche Wallone debut where he probably attacked too early and came 3rd
2nd Dauphine stage race to Brajkovic

His form is very good and he's not been beaten in a GT since he won his first Tour. However for my money he went too deep in the Dauphine trying to drop Brajkovic on Alpe D'Huez. I think Radioshack and Liquigas would have been delighted to have seen Brajkovic and Szymd giving him a hard time there. I think there is a good chance that he may be slightly below par now

I also think there are enough reasons for Andy Schleck to have improved on last year (even though he's not shown a great deal this season) and that he will close the 4 minute gap that he lost last year's race by
Report seanpantani July 2, 2010 3:18 PM BST
quick update from rotterdam.....

- all looking like a cracking prologue.
- my moneys on spartucus and then an outsider in brent bookwalter...
- stage 3 going to critcial, most of the teams been scoping it out over the past days.
- the infamous 'blazin saddles' from Eurosport.co.uk has confirmed the below...

interesting rumour going around about the WSJ article that is coming out tmw.... it's titled 'Blood Brothers' and covers (apparently) the systematic doping inside USP & Disco. Beyond Landis there are other riders speaking in it. Some speculation as to whether or not RS will actually start the race...

Read into this what u want, but keep an eye out for this in the first editions tmw.

Back with some updates shortly.

Enjoy.

SP.
Report NORSKI July 2, 2010 3:28 PM BST
Edvald Boasson Hagen crashed during training today. I don't think he will win tomorrow. But he will make the start. Got only some scratches. Didn't look good in the Norwegian Championship last weekend either.
http://www.nrksport.no/sykkel/1.7195122
Report Flying_V July 2, 2010 4:04 PM BST
oh good...
Report Flying_V July 2, 2010 4:05 PM BST
If Lance is gone...[big "if"]...Brajkovic free to go for KoTM...???
Report Flying_V July 2, 2010 4:06 PM BST
More likely...he goes down with the rest of "the shack"....[horrible name]
Report manafana July 2, 2010 6:22 PM BST
ANYONE else feel roman kreuziger is way too big at 80s, he was just 3secs of martin and cancellera in a simliar tt earlier in year and is targetting to do well here.
Report BikerBoy July 2, 2010 6:26 PM BST
Heard the same re RS but surely not mow not this late. Maybe the french know LA is in great form and just cant risk him winning it again. Not saying he will just that he is top spec.

Opposeing Contador with A Schlek, Basso, Armstrong and Wiggins and a lay of Contador :-)

If Armstrong starts his price will be less tommorrow evening.
Report federalski July 2, 2010 11:43 PM BST
Schleck, F     11/4
Kreuziger, R     3/1
Menchov, D     7/2
Gesink, Robert     7/2
Sanchez, Samuel     7/2

Group betting.

Big, big on Frank.
Report Flying_V July 3, 2010 12:43 PM BST
Final list of pre-Tour outright bets...

EBH Green 66/1
EBH Yellow 550/1 average...looking for rain & carnage on Tuesday...might even try to get to the course with a sprinkler system..
Brajkovic 100/1 KoTM. Hoping he will be set free by Bruyneel if Lance struggles...
Basso KoTM 33/1...Hoping for the Motirolo/Gavia form to continue...although he may actually be going for Yellow...

Plenty of value..and probably no winners!

Good luck..enjoy..etc...
Report kildareking July 4, 2010 1:06 AM BST
Is Cav a cert in stage 2?
Report kildareking July 4, 2010 1:19 AM BST
sorry stage 1!
Report gart July 4, 2010 9:06 AM BST
team classification market has seen some decent
laying at evens on the radioshack team
whilst bookmakers are currently 8/11.

imv this is a significant market movement.
on form you wouldnt expect them to trade at this price.
Report avontuur July 4, 2010 9:59 AM BST
Re: Green jersey. Great rides by Tyler Farrer and Robert Hunter in the prologue. Not so wonderful from Hushovd and Cav.
With the rolling nature of some of these 'flat' stages, I feel that all rounders like Freire, Roche or Chavanel could accrue points in the competition, maybe even the GC contenders will be a factor due to the parcours in the middle of the Tour.
Report Neely July 4, 2010 10:23 AM BST
Does anyone think there is value in Mark Cavenish stage wins over 3? He would 5 last year and laying 1.98 for that seems good to me. Any thoughts?
Report A_True_fan July 4, 2010 12:01 PM BST
The writing is already on the wall and nobody wants to see it ? This Armstrong is back to his best and much much better than last year . Last year he lost 22 seconds in the prologue to Contador and now he has not only closed that gap but won 5 seconds on Contador . His current odds of 9,6 are too good to be true ... Lance has made this his objective and he is looking sharp !
Report Flying_V July 4, 2010 12:37 PM BST
cool
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! July 4, 2010 1:16 PM BST
The dog
stops the tour

What an
ESCAPE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cool
Report Neely July 4, 2010 1:39 PM BST
To my mind Contador is too short at 1.65ish, surely a lay is the value?
Report JORDI July 4, 2010 2:07 PM BST
any links please
Report Neely July 4, 2010 3:18 PM BST
Go to cycling and Tour de France.
Report JORDI July 4, 2010 4:01 PM BST
so can cav do it today,any views
Report the jigger July 4, 2010 4:14 PM BST
Have Cav backed to win the stage today.On form there is no sprinter that can match his explosive finishing power.
Report comingupthehill July 4, 2010 4:22 PM BST
come the cav - their trying to get the ball back to wilkinson for a drop goal,oops sorry i meant they re setting it up for the manx
Report freebetterisbettertobe July 4, 2010 4:25 PM BST
we'll see if they are same force without key men from few years ago, other sprinters will beat Cavendish.
Report inner city sumo July 4, 2010 4:32 PM BST
CHAOS!
Report seanpantani July 4, 2010 9:35 PM BST
The writing is already on the wall and nobody wants to see it ? This Armstrong is back to his best and much much better than last year . Last year he lost 22 seconds in the prologue to Contador and now he has not only closed that gap but won 5 seconds on Contador . His current odds of 9,6 are too good to be true ... Lance has made this his objective and he is looking sharp !

Ummm... oki - you keep on putting your money on him then. ;-)

comparing this years / last years prologue and the riders is chalk and cheese.
Report johnnyrant July 5, 2010 11:03 AM BST
Armstrong had interrupted preparation last year with his broken collarbone. I thought it was a no-brainer he would be in better shape this year despite being a year older. The prologue performance certainly bodes well. Contador will still be very hard to beat but Armstrong top 3 and w/o Contador looked excellent value.
Report JORDI July 5, 2010 12:34 PM BST
the dog and 2 major crashes, great stuff so far
Report Help2 July 5, 2010 4:38 PM BST
nice race but whats with the protest?
Report hippie July 5, 2010 4:55 PM BST
Not sure it was a protest really. There were several spills coming down the second (or third) to last descent. Unfortunately it coincided with Eurosport selling crap so we didn't get live pictures. Anyhow, Cancellara was less affected than the other big names and could have really taken advantage of the situation by putting several minutes between him and the pack but instead he chose not to attack and let the peloton re-form. Under the circumstances anyone attacking at the end would have been an ass.

Chavenal (and Quick Step) rode the stage perfectly.

Over the cobbles tomorrow!
Report bb66 July 5, 2010 5:32 PM BST
I've watched another channel, A. Schleck was most affected from the several falls, he was 2:30 down to yellow afterwards, LA and AC were in a bunch in between.
Report BikerBoy July 5, 2010 8:13 PM BST
Am surprised AC price is hardening a bit with Armstrong up for the fight, Wiggins better prepared and Andy Schlek another year older. Wiggins has a far better chance than people give him credit for.
Report n6 July 6, 2010 10:17 PM BST
Come on Cadel...and you can still get evens (not for much admittedley) for top 6.

Armstrong struggled badly today, think he's a massive lay for top3
Report BikerBoy July 7, 2010 5:56 PM BST
Did he struggle or did he have a front wheel problem, looked to me as he had to put a spare wheel on and then couldnt get back on.
Report freebetterisbettertobe July 7, 2010 7:08 PM BST
I being a Cadel fan hope he does well this year, but he hasn't got as much in the mountains as he used to have. The other climbers are better than him these days, as was seen with Basso in the Giro.
Don't get me wrong he is still good at climbing, but there is others who are alot better these days, and feel he won't be in top 6.
Report n6 July 7, 2010 10:55 PM BST
get him laid at odds on then freebetter. all I'd say re climbing is Basso was the only one who bettered him on the Giro, Evans stuck with him most of the way up Zoncolan and he finished second up the mental time trial. There aren't 6 riders who can take enough time out of him in the mountains to keep him out of the top 6 in my opinion.

its certainly shaping up to be a great tour
Report JORDI July 7, 2010 11:55 PM BST
basso on offer at 40s for kom,any reason,does anyone know
Report freebetterisbettertobe July 7, 2010 11:59 PM BST
There are more riders that can do what Basso did in the Giro to him in this. Not many of them were in the Giro. It will be close, I will not lay or back for this reason - He might be just in top 6 or just out of top 6. About evens is the correct price. No bet is the way to go.
Report derekoneill July 8, 2010 1:11 AM BST
Can somebody explain to me why ACs price is still so short. I understand he is the quality act in the race but I would have expected Schleck to be viewed as pretty much his equal in the mountains so with the 30 seconds he has on Contador should he not be coming in? The only place I can see AC getting time from Andy is in the second time trial. I'm however no expert so I am probably way off. Would love to hear other views on it though.
Report redpat July 8, 2010 1:34 AM BST
Hi all Tour de France betters,just wondering is Contandor worth a lay at current odds.
Report LazyRamper July 8, 2010 8:03 AM BST
Contador is better in the mountains when he needs to be and he beat Schleck by 2 minutes in the final time trial last year. He'd need to have a day when he bonks for him to lose which I guess should be possible with Bruyneel no longer managing him.
Report redpat July 8, 2010 11:32 AM BST
Thanks Lazy going to lay him a grand.
Report redpat July 9, 2010 12:03 PM BST
I know very little about cycling but when i see a rider 1.54 to win a race with such a large field my instinct is to lay the favourite i have layed Contador avearage price 1.55 500 euro ,does anyone think he will trade higher.
Report JORDI July 9, 2010 2:20 PM BST
maybe redpat, anything can happen in big climbs that are upcoming
Report Hector Carey July 9, 2010 2:26 PM BST
what time does stage 6 finish ?
Report BikerBoy July 9, 2010 6:10 PM BST
SKY for the team classification @ 13 is generous to say the least, im fully in with average odds of 16 and now have had enough.
Report n6 July 11, 2010 5:03 PM BST
well thats the end of Armstrong...will he pull out or will he hang around to support Levi and Kloden? is he the 'supporting' type?

Schleck looked good today and Contador showed signs of weakness at the end. Evans just held on to the group but only just!!
Report Wedgy2k July 11, 2010 5:18 PM BST
Armstrong to finish market up now
Report BikerBoy July 11, 2010 5:42 PM BST
All green now thanks to Andy Schlek. I make it a 50 50 shout now.
Report n6 July 11, 2010 6:36 PM BST
Bikerboy...Contador WON'T win, Armstrong WILL be back to his best and is great value as is Basso...your words a few days ago....

So how exactly are you all green with Armstrong completely out of it, Basso with very little chance and Contador by far the most likely winner:-)
Report A_T July 12, 2010 11:54 AM BST
Contador looked heavy-legged at the end yesterday - could not match Schlek.
Report BikerBoy July 12, 2010 7:30 PM BST
n6 am all green because I had a nice bet on Schlek when his odds went to nearly 15 and bailed on Armstrong after he lost time for the first time. I figured IF he had it then he wouldve gone hell for leather and caught up which he didnt! That didnt bode well so I bailed. Armstrong has had some bad luck and I really think he is as fit as he can be but age has caught up with him. Im now red on Cadel only as have added to Krueziger and Menchov as I think the odds are now value.

Heres the average odds....

Alberto Contador       1.53       £29.00       £15.46
Ref: Bet matched:
Andy Schleck     10.59     £50.53     £484.60
Ref: Bet matched:
Denis Menchov     60     £9.19     £542.21
Ref: Bet matched:
Ivan Basso     40     £20.00     £780.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Roman Kreuziger     144.47     £9.00     £1,291.20
Ref: Bet matched:
Robert Gesink     70     £4.00     £276.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Carlos Sastre     400     £4.00     £1,596.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Bradley Wiggins     26.57     £30.83     £788.19
Ref: Bet matched:
Lance Armstrong     14.69     £55.50     £759.75
Ref: Bet matched:
Geraint Thomas     230     £5.00     £1,145.00
Ref: Bet matched:
      £217.05    
Lay     Backer's
Odds     Backer's
Stake    
Payout
Liability
Lay     Backer's
Odds     Backer's
Stake     Payout Liability
Alberto Contador     1.64     £80.74     £132.61 £51.87
Ref: Bet matched:
Andy Schleck     3.5     £170.00     £595.00 £425.00
Ref: Bet matched:
Cadel Evans     14.5     £9.46     £137.17 £127.71
Ref: Bet matched:
Ivan Basso     32     £23.04     £737.28 £714.24
Ref: Bet matched:
Robert Gesink     80     £3.08     £246.40 £243.32
Ref: Bet matched:
Bradley Wiggins     132.75     £5.75     £763.30 £757.55
Ref: Bet matched:
Lance Armstrong     17.31     £49.00     £847.97 £798.97
Ref: Bet matched:
      £341.07
Report kincsem July 13, 2010 4:45 PM BST
Back
Alberto Contador  1.62  €1,000.00  €620.01 

Lay
Lance Armstrong  7.6  €7.90  €52.14 

It looks like Schleck or Contador.
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 13, 2010 5:36 PM BST
thanks einstein...Mischief
Report n6 July 13, 2010 9:47 PM BST
well so much for my Evans top 6 bet...although stranger things have happened!! got to go in again on something now as Ive 'collected' on my Armstong top 3 lay and 'lost' my Evans top 6 bet.

looking like a great week in the Pyrenees. Schleck has to continue to attack as he's a poor time triallist. Contador has to hang in. I'm wondering whether Contador deliberately went into the tour a bit undercooked as he knew how hard a final week it was so was deliberately saving a bit to ride himself to 100% form in the first 2 weeks?
Report hippie July 14, 2010 12:00 PM BST
Bastille Day!


[why the f*ck is there a Big Brother forum but not a Tour de France forum? Plain ]
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 14, 2010 1:23 PM BST
because there are a lot more people interested in big brother than le tour. sad but true.

re. schleck v contador. i think the tour was basically settled on yesterday's stage. schleck asked the questions and contador answered them. schleck took 2nd prize of wearing yellow for a week or so until final time trial.
Report bb66 July 14, 2010 1:38 PM BST
both will fight it out in the Pyrenees, either AC will take yellow or Andy will increase the gap
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg July 14, 2010 1:44 PM BST
...or AC will decrease the gap but not take yellow? Laugh
Report GoBallistic July 14, 2010 3:04 PM BST
40 seconds would be enough in the final TT imho
Report ExpertBoy July 14, 2010 3:11 PM BST
Its a TT after 3 weeks of hard race, its not the same as an isolated TT. 40s Could be enough, but i think Andy should try to win 20-30s more and he has the Tour
Report g0ldstarr July 14, 2010 6:20 PM BST
Shame the time trial is not up Alp d' Huez like a few years back, that would be class
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