London Marathon

Yes.

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thanks

Kim Smith big ew price at the books

Not as big as she was

OK here is my take on the 2010 London marathon - my runners to follow are purely based on price and not necessarily who I think will win though I have commented on the chief contenders
Mens Race - when prices first came out on Tuesday I thought that maybe I had priced it up wrong when I went 6/4 Wanjiru but they opened 7/2 and 3/1 but as I would have no chance of getting on and had to wait and sure enough everyone else agreed with me so no bet there! He is the worthy favourite having won 4 of the 5 marathons he has run in including the Olympics and London last year although he has had some problems with his back. Second favourite is Tadese but I couldn't take him at such a short price - depite the fact he is the fastest half marathoner his one attempt at the full distance ended in failure. I think the 14/1 currently on offer for Abel Kirui is simply too big - known as a pace maker for Geb when he attempted his world records he is the second faster runner in the field and won the World Champs in Berlin with Kebede (half his price) back in 3rd - 14/1 just has to be wrong.
Womens Race - to follow

Womens Race - Mikitenko is a worthy favourite going for her third straight title but I would err on the side of caution as she has been suffering from shin splints - not the best thing to have when running a road marathon. I don't think the support for Brit Yamauchi is anything other than patriotic - she had a nightmare journey to London and I don't think she is capable of running the 2.21 she might need to win it. Shobukhova should be a strong contender - 2nd to Mikitenko on her marathon debut in London last year and then beating her in Chicago to win - the early 12/1 again was wrong but no chance to place a bet and now the price is about right. My main pick at the prices early doors was Kiwi Kim Smith who started one marathon back in 2008 in New York but withdrew as she was ill in the days running up to it. She was 66/1 then and that was with Radcliffe in the field and I would say she is a stronger athlete now and should be around 33/1 - she is a huge talent and the marathon is expected to be her best distance so she could be a surprise podium package. Yoshimi Ozaki is an interesting Japanese contender - I picked her for the World Championships when she was 2nd and she is the same price this week - her only two other marathon performances were in Japan where she finished 1st and 2nd. She is quoted in the Japanese press as she is aiming for a 2.21 which would get her bang in contention. A couple of dark horses who really could be anything are a pair of Ethiopians - Berlin winner Habtamu and Aselefech Mergia.

I think 33/1 Smith is still too big. She's better than either Mikitenko or Shubokhova were at 10,000m on the track imo and I believe is actually the fastest in the field at the half marathon. She's an improving athlete in peak form who says herself that she's had an ideal preparation.

Mikitenko finished 2nd in Berlin on her marathon debut and Shubokhova finished 3rd in London last year on her marathon debut so I don't feel her lack of experience rules her out.

Agree re Kim though she is certainly not the fastest 1/2 marathoner in the field - Adhere beat her earlier this year and both Kastor and Mergia have run faster - be interesting to see how she gets on

Adhere and Mergia both not running. You are right about Kastor. Didn't notice her when I went down the all time list. Kastor is marginally quicker

Are you sure Mergia isn't running?

I saw the official line up and made a mental note it agreed with Skibets and Patpowers lists. Its possible I made an error with her - wont be the first time

gone for a shobukhova tadese singles and doubles , thanks for the write up tmm

Trying to lay Mara but not much interest in this yet! Still too early on a sun morning?

no money around at all.

I wanted a bet on David Wier for the mens wheelchair, no bookies had it either

LOL we must either be shrewd and all about the profit or just idiots and addicted betting on anything on a sunday morning!!

Well thats my mara lay snapped up! finally

Wanjuri miles too short. According to Athletics Weekly he missed 2 months training with a calf injury. can't possibly win if that is true. maybe just here to pick up his appearance fee. you can't run 2.05-2.06 if you've missed that much training and there 4 other men in the field who have all run sub 2.06 as welll as Tadese who broke Wanjuri's half marathon world record a while back.

lay, lay, lay....especially on the top 3 market

I won big on this last year with Wanjiru after Matrin Lels withdrawal but agree that he is not great value this year. I suspect Tadese has overtrained recently with his half marathon times so he will likely blow up at about 20 miles.

Mutai is my cheeky bet this year. The lad looks real value at 30's. 4th last year in London and second in the World Championships.

I have backed Mutai with a Wanjiru stake returning cover bet.

Not got any pics -what happened to Mikitenko?

she must be dropped

2.54 kamau my bet

laid wanjuru,looks tired already

did mara just grab at her side there?

Isn't Shobukhova a bit short at 1.56 ?

yes

very

wanjuru encouraging the pacemakers to run faster, hardly the sign of a tired runner!!!

thought he was the one in the superman costume,my mistake !

Mutai looking very good.

Could be a sprint finish this year.

boxman...according to Cram...maybe he was asking em to slow down ;-)

Mari Ozaki going well in 2nd

Why do you always concentrate on the women?

It is so annoying.

I'm telling you Wanjuri doesn't look good...I'm laying more

favs got a back problem,in that case its a shocking price win or lose,wanjiru is a lay

I'm following the womens race Occam's Razor :)

there doesn't appear to be a lot of interest in either race on this thread.

only 38 posts so far for both races

laid some more on wanjiru,gonna be a sprint finish off a slow pace,wont suit imo,under 2-1 is a joke price

I didn't mean you, I meant the BBC. Apologies.

Shaping up to be an awesome second half.

Occam's Razor 25 Apr 10:30
Why do you always concentrate on the women?

It is so annoying.


Monkey Boy:The Directors Cut

I didn't mean you ...


IDENTITY PROBLEMS ? ? :D

Anyone else hate that music that the BBC use endlessly when covering the Grand National & the Marathon (& probably other things too).

Dunno what it is but it drives me mad. Some tw*t at the BBC has obviously decided it's appropriate for any "challenging" event.

wanjiru defo struggling,looks good

My non-specials betting account.

:)

Tadese is going to make a break in a minute in order to break Wanjiru.

this pace will defo suit tadese

book are you ramping please?

book 25 Apr 10:51
wanjiru defo struggling,looks good

He looks like he normally does in my opinion....

no,im not playing

book 25 Apr 10:03

laid wanjuru



;\

apart from that,lol

Kirui still looks strong but I have a feeling someone will come from the back of the pack... Kebebe is a tough competitor.

My current bets are on a back of mutai (top 3) and a lay of Kibet..

feck off book you ramper

women

Abitova 's looking round

either struggling or confident

you can get reported and banned for ramping book

Come on Mutai!

hes out,there you go

Utter disgrace that the BBC didn't even know what had happened to Weir. British athlete & leading the race with a few KM to go & they never even knew he had a puncture.

women

between the 2 Russians imo

well that was the easiest dosh I've made all year...

kibet out as well

curious cat,gone a bit quiet mate

They all look**ged.

Frankie 'he looks like he always does'...no he didn't at any point

top 3 gone

Cmon Mergia and Kirui!!

n6 25 Apr 10:03
Frankie 'he looks like he always does'...no he didn't at any point

Your opinion. I feel he did look like normally does in a marathon.......

the two in front in the mens seem to be racing each other a bit too early , more interested in bumping into each other

mate ?

you are a ramper and a liar book !

terrific womens race

back to 3 with 7/8 mins to go

and back to the race --- can't understand why people think Kebede should be fave - Kirui beat him comfortably in World Champs

World Championships means nothing to the top marathon runners. They make more money on appearance fees in the majors. This is why you very rarely see the best Kenyan Marathon runners attend a World Championships. When they do they simply do not care and have their minds set on Berlin in September.

Kirui won the Worlds last summer but before that he was an unknown to most outside of Kaptagat in Kenya....

how do you work that out,its a game of opinions & i was right,happy days

Frankie - hardly unknown - one of the fastest marathoners ever!

book


book 25 Apr 10:03
laid wanjuru,looks tired already

book 25 Apr 10:21
thought he was the one in the superman costume,my mistake !

TD_Gunner 25 Apr 10:53
book are you ramping please?

book 25 Apr 10:55
no,im not playing

kirui drawn away,its all over

Tafa runs like Phoebe in Friends.

book 25 Apr 10:22
kirui drawn away,its all over

Hilarious.... Go back to your playstation!

now that is ramping - kebede has pulled away

shes funked that Ehiopian lass

parents should lock away their computers from their kids

are you clowns watching a different race,no wonder its so easy to win on here,1.8 as he goes clear,lol

pity you are not playing book :D

that was a mistake,meant kebede,greens getting so big,got mixed up,lol

I couldn't be doing wheel chair marathon's with the dangers of punctures, such a blow to do 25 miles then lose because your tire blows on you.

Does that happen to a lot of them?

advice to marathon bettors...subscribe to Athletics Weekly, read my post timed 9.24...thats paid for many years subscriptions :-)

womens race was better

wd n6,another sport thats easy to make money on,its as easy as formula 1 & boxing etc etc

book pmsl at some of the ill informed comment on here

someone earlier said that they aren't bothered about the World Championships and interested in the big city marathons

well the first 3 in last years world championships are currently 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the tv :-)

current record time in the elite mens race at the London Marathon is 2 hours 05 minutes and 10 seconds.


just seconds outside the record today

I'd think if he'd had any competition he'd have beaten it

well done lemoncello, top 8 finish and good time.

well done to my local lad Lee Merrien hitting his target to make European championship time of 2:16 on his first ever marathon.

franco, he was over 2.16 wasn't he? be interesting to see who they pick for Euros and Commonwealth. Although Robinson dropped out he'll definitely get a place. Lemoncello said he wants to run the 10k in euros so i imagine Jones will get a Euro place as he's done the time and been second Brit home 2 years running at London. I think Moreau beat Merrin but I don't thin either have done the qualifying time.

Great run by Merrin, is that his first marathon?

yeah it was, I think he generally does 10k and the like for England.

He's done quite a few half marathon's but this is his first step up to the marathon.

He's been well documented in our local paper for this and I've been on a few of the local runs he's been in (all be it a long way behind him!).

he was 2:16 and so many seconds, was it under 2:16 they needed?

think qualifying may be 2.18, however 3 Brits finished infront of him and Robinson is a cert and you can only have 3 in the team I think.

good chance of the commonwealths and please excuse my ignorance but does Guernsey enter its own commonwealth team anyway?? however the commonwealth si the hard option as the Kenyans will be in that!!!!

yeah for Commonwealth we have our own.

occasionally pick up a medal or two but not in a while.

We've got Dale Garland as well who's pretty handy, think he reserved on the relay in the Olympics.