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08 Feb 10
23:59
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Date Joined:
26 Dec 08
This will be on at a respectable time lads given Sydney is 19 hours ahead of Las Vegas - could be looking at a 5pm start on the Sunday! Lovely.
Main Card
Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez
Middleweight Bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping
Lightweight Bout: Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos
Light Heavyweight Bout: Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader
Heavyweight Bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Ben Rothwell
Preliminary Card
Light Heavyweight bout: Elvis Sinosic vs. Chris Haseman
Light Heavyweight Bout: Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Welterweight Bout: Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster
Middleweight Bout: C.B. Dollaway vs. Goran Reljic
Light Heavyweight Bout: James Te-Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac
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Krzysztof Soszynski will hammer Bonnar, who doesn't seem to have moved on with the sport in the last few years. The Polish Experiment should be too strong for Bonnar who was beaten badly by Jonny Bones Jones - which is excusable given Bones is a huge prospect - but what can't really be excused is a terrible loss to a past it Coleman via Unanimous Decision.
Cro Cop is a sad state. Since Gabe Gonzaga nearly took his head off, ironically with a left high head kick, he hasn't been the same since. Cigano put a beating on him like we all knew he would (that 4/5 on JDS was the best value I've ever seen in MMA) and he looks to bounce back against Ben Rothwell. Big Ben was decimated by Cain last time. This, again, is excusable, considering he run into a wrestling machine and spent a lot of time on his back. He done ok in the stand-up. Mirko, of course, will not look to wrestle Ben. And Ben, obviously, is not a K1 level striker the way the Croat is (or at least, was). Cro Cop has appeared less than devoted to fighting in the last while, but apparently he has totally changed his team in preparation for this fight. He has got rid of his coach and training partners and brought in Muay Thai legend Ivan Hippolyte to prepare him. Funny that the main training partner he got rid of is fighting on the undercard! His name is Igor Pakrajac. He may be worth taking on given the way Cro Cop has fought in the last few years! Anyway, bottom line is if Cro Cop is motivated - judging by his comments before and after his last fight I'd be sceptical - he takes this easy. Its a no bet, but Im hoping for a return to form for Mirko. And maybe one more chance to see a head kick from him.
I don't know what it is, but I've never rated Bader. Ever. He won a poor TUF. He has fought two average fighters since and though winning by 2 UD's, he hasn't exactly impressed. Jardine on the other hand has fought a who's who of top 205lb fighters for 4 years. He's lost his last 2. Bader presents an interesting problem for Jardine as he hasn't faced a wrestler in a long time. He's unorthodox so Bader will be happy to get him down ASAP, but Jardine is no mug on the ground - he is a black belt under Greg Jackson's fighting system. It's a no bet, but I hope Jardine has enough left in the tank to win.
Joe Daddy is too good and back enjoying his fighting - he looked back to his very best vs Fisher, who is a good fighter in his own right. He'll should beat hometown boy George Sotiropoulos if not allowing what will be an extremely excited crowd get to him.
The Axe Murderer fights at 185lb for the first time in his illustrious career. But he fights at middleweight out of necessity, not out of choice. He'll have huge backing, as always, from the Aussie crowd, especially fighting against a Pom, but I'm not sure it will be enough. He's over the hill. 5 defeats in his last 6 show that. Initially I had a tough time thinking Bisping could win this, but I'm starting to come around to it. It will be a bet in play for me. If Bisping is smart (not really something he's shown before), lasts the first round and a Wandy onslaught, then resorts to takedowns and pushing Silva against the fence, weighing on him and pressuring his cardio, he could win.
The main event is a special fight, fought between two of my favourite 265lbers. In short, this could go either way. I give ARN the advantage in the stand-up. They will trade early and then Cain will shoot. And he'll get Big Nog on his back. From there, Nog can take a beating, which he probably will given Cain's huge wrestling skills and GnP ability. But Nog could pull off a submission, Its another no bet, but very very much one to enjoy. Could be a cracker.
Main Card
Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez
Middleweight Bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping
Lightweight Bout: Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos
Light Heavyweight Bout: Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader
Heavyweight Bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Ben Rothwell
Preliminary Card
Light Heavyweight bout: Elvis Sinosic vs. Chris Haseman
Light Heavyweight Bout: Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Welterweight Bout: Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster
Middleweight Bout: C.B. Dollaway vs. Goran Reljic
Light Heavyweight Bout: James Te-Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac
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Krzysztof Soszynski will hammer Bonnar, who doesn't seem to have moved on with the sport in the last few years. The Polish Experiment should be too strong for Bonnar who was beaten badly by Jonny Bones Jones - which is excusable given Bones is a huge prospect - but what can't really be excused is a terrible loss to a past it Coleman via Unanimous Decision.
Cro Cop is a sad state. Since Gabe Gonzaga nearly took his head off, ironically with a left high head kick, he hasn't been the same since. Cigano put a beating on him like we all knew he would (that 4/5 on JDS was the best value I've ever seen in MMA) and he looks to bounce back against Ben Rothwell. Big Ben was decimated by Cain last time. This, again, is excusable, considering he run into a wrestling machine and spent a lot of time on his back. He done ok in the stand-up. Mirko, of course, will not look to wrestle Ben. And Ben, obviously, is not a K1 level striker the way the Croat is (or at least, was). Cro Cop has appeared less than devoted to fighting in the last while, but apparently he has totally changed his team in preparation for this fight. He has got rid of his coach and training partners and brought in Muay Thai legend Ivan Hippolyte to prepare him. Funny that the main training partner he got rid of is fighting on the undercard! His name is Igor Pakrajac. He may be worth taking on given the way Cro Cop has fought in the last few years! Anyway, bottom line is if Cro Cop is motivated - judging by his comments before and after his last fight I'd be sceptical - he takes this easy. Its a no bet, but Im hoping for a return to form for Mirko. And maybe one more chance to see a head kick from him.
I don't know what it is, but I've never rated Bader. Ever. He won a poor TUF. He has fought two average fighters since and though winning by 2 UD's, he hasn't exactly impressed. Jardine on the other hand has fought a who's who of top 205lb fighters for 4 years. He's lost his last 2. Bader presents an interesting problem for Jardine as he hasn't faced a wrestler in a long time. He's unorthodox so Bader will be happy to get him down ASAP, but Jardine is no mug on the ground - he is a black belt under Greg Jackson's fighting system. It's a no bet, but I hope Jardine has enough left in the tank to win.
Joe Daddy is too good and back enjoying his fighting - he looked back to his very best vs Fisher, who is a good fighter in his own right. He'll should beat hometown boy George Sotiropoulos if not allowing what will be an extremely excited crowd get to him.
The Axe Murderer fights at 185lb for the first time in his illustrious career. But he fights at middleweight out of necessity, not out of choice. He'll have huge backing, as always, from the Aussie crowd, especially fighting against a Pom, but I'm not sure it will be enough. He's over the hill. 5 defeats in his last 6 show that. Initially I had a tough time thinking Bisping could win this, but I'm starting to come around to it. It will be a bet in play for me. If Bisping is smart (not really something he's shown before), lasts the first round and a Wandy onslaught, then resorts to takedowns and pushing Silva against the fence, weighing on him and pressuring his cardio, he could win.
The main event is a special fight, fought between two of my favourite 265lbers. In short, this could go either way. I give ARN the advantage in the stand-up. They will trade early and then Cain will shoot. And he'll get Big Nog on his back. From there, Nog can take a beating, which he probably will given Cain's huge wrestling skills and GnP ability. But Nog could pull off a submission, Its another no bet, but very very much one to enjoy. Could be a cracker.
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Replies: 315
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I believe it's on at 3am GMT. Yes, the same time as if it were a US card. Very disappointing...
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You could see it in CroCop's eyes he was a broken man. finished. all washed up. done and dusted.
Basically another UFC fighter like Rampage and Roger Huerta who quit only to get forced back because they have 1 fight left on their contracts. You cant back a guy thats mentally gone imo...on the other hand he must know this is final fight and will try and go out all guns blazing especially in front of a crowd that will have A LOT of Croatian and CroCop supporters. Also Big Ben is a pretty big target to aim at. Think its an inrunning bet.....see how he's doing attitude wise after round1 then have a bet or lay. |
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good write up btw.
I'm on Bisping as u know. |
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gut instinct is that NOG will find a way to win and that Cain Velesquez (as much as I like and respect him) will be made to look very one dimensional.
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Thanks ELG.
Templeton Peck 09 Feb 10:43 I believe it's on at 3am GMT ffs X-( Thought because of the time difference it would be on at a good time. |
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Bader's not afraid to stand with Jardine, could be a great fight
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If Bader decides to bang with Keith, and Keith's punch resistance hasn't totally gone, there is only one winner.
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good write up kauto
Im going for Bader to win anyway he wants,actually think he will KO him pretty early on but if he decides to take KJ down i think he will dominate there too,not that i rate bader too highly i just dont rate KJ. Bit harsh on bisping as usual :) :) Apart from the stupid (i agree very very stupid) mistake against Hendo i think he is a reasonably intelligent fighter. I too am really looking forward to nog vs cain and im edging towards nog,nog has good boxing so i think his stand up is better and from waht i saw in the cain vs congo fight cain doesnt have an iron jaw although i know cheick hits hard,on the ground i think cain will be very wary of nog and wont go all out with his ground and pound assault like he did agaist cheick and big ben and this will play right into nogs hands,if i was pushed id go Nog by submission. Really really hope george can pull of a win against joe cos i love the guy but its a big test for him and if you can sub joe daddy then you are legit but i think joe will lie on top of him and take the W. |
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Why is it on at that time? When its on in the uk its on at 8 our time for us!
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Not so sure but keiths style is so difficult to work out, worth noting Bader injured his knee againt merrero and fought through it. May have had a bearing on not finishing schafer to.
He doesant fear Jardines submissions so perhaps he will work the top game. |
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just re read what Bader was saying
sais he has worked loads on his straight punches and his timing, willing to stand with Keith might join you in a Bader ko bet. Trevor Lally has them training crazy at acs the sparring is crazy hard I cant see keith knocking him out and sooner or later Ryan will land |
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yeah bader has some real power in that right and KJ doesnt have the best chin. Wins anyway he wants for me.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYk7lCu0dn8&feature=related
:-) |
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The televised card is starting at 2pm local time on the Sunday afternoon to allow this show to air in its normal Pay Per View timeslot in the US. With such a decent card I would guess the UFC are loathe to miss out on PPV revenue by airing the show live at an unfamiliar time. The European events that have aired over there at 8pm our time have not done very well in terms of PPV revenue.
The April 10th Abu Dhabi show with Silva/Belfort & Penn/Edgar will be going out live at 6pm our time though. I'm just hoping that ESPN don't bump the live broadcast for a Saturday evening Premier League game! |
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Martin Kampmann is forced out of his UFC 111 bout with Saunders...............wanna see why?
http://twitpic.com/12icfy :0 What sort of sparring does that lad do? :^0 |
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:O
mental....just like Junior Dos Santos' ear wtf did the Nogueira brothers and Anderson Silva do to him in training for his ear to end up like that? |
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I heard every time they win a fight he lets them have a nibble on it :0
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8-13 crocop , 13-10 big ben
8-13 wanderlei ,13-10 the count 4-5 Nog , 11-10 Cain some of the shows |
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Rolles Gracie got released after one fight :^0
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good.
that was just a disgrace. Actually I wonder if that could be a new criteria for a referee to stop a fight ie LACK oF CARDIO....think about it...all that happened was Gracie taking unnecessary punishment....that was just a joke. |
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Take a look at the link below for an update on Bisping in Sydney.
Rampage is a funny guy, but will be beaten by Rashad. I will be having a few quid on Mike to beat Wandy, just hope he doesnt catch a haymaker. Good price imo. http://www.mmabay.co.uk/Video%20A%2000306.html Really looking forward to the main event, and will be rooting for Cain. |
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^ Don't know who to root for. :-(
Love these two, plus JDS, in the 265 division. I think Nog would have the better chance of beating Brock, and I think Nog is overdue a title shot tbh. But I make Cain, as close to a relentless machine as you get in MMA, slight favourite to beat Nog. |
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im rooting for nog,love the guy,a true warrior.
You think cain will win kauto? You not think he will get caught in a sub if he takes nog down? Tough one to call this but im slightly favouring nog cos of his better stand up and his bjj. If cain wins this then he really is legit,he has beat decent fighters in rothwell and cheick although cheick is a bit 1 dimentional but he will have to work alot harder on the ground with nog and he will be far more cautious once it does go to the ground. |
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JDS certainly looks the real deal, with his fighting style there are some great fights upcoming in that division I think.
Anyone else going against the odds and backing MB to win? |
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The reason I have Cain as slight fave, and we are talking 4/5 vs 5/4 fave, is that his stand-up gets better every fight, he is getting smarter by throwing jabs/faking hooks to set up easy take-downs into side control. His wrestling is up there rivalling GSP's and Lesnar's as pound for pound best wrestler in MMA. His control of posture and positioning on the ground is very good. He is far from being an all round Jits guy, but he's learned how best to place himself and his opponent on the ground so as to best inflict the most damage via Ground n Pound but also not risking a sub. His sub defence in this sense is exceptional. It remains to be seen what he could come up with if an opponent grabbed an arm - but he specialises in not allowing that situation to occur. He is relentless. He pushes a pace and a 'riddum' than GSP would be proud of. Im struggling to think of a fighter Nog has faced that will be as hectic - even when he was beaten by a peak Fedor, he wasn't asked to go the pace Cain will ask of him. And Nog is a lot older now. Wiser no doubt, but not as fit I'd imagine.
But despite all this I still have the fight as almost 50/50. And that's down to Nog's heart and ability on the ground. I don't think ARN's far better boxing will come into it that much because I suspect 90% of this fight will be spent horizontal - or at least it should be if Cain has the right game plan. It's a huge advantage for Velasquez to be able to dictate where this fight ends up - Nog's take-down defence will not be enough to stop Cain's wrestling. However, Nog will know this. I'd imagine much of his camp will be spent fighting off his back and planning clever sweeps. Nog's heart gives him an ability to withstand a huge amount of punishment. And he will in all liklihood take a deal of punishment in this fight. But what Nog has that other don't, including Mir, is that despite taking a hiding, he can spring a submission out of nowhere. This is the number one reason why I have Nog down as a threat to Brock, but not Cain as Cain's main weapon would be neutralized and bettered by Brock's own wrestling. The only way I could envisage Cain beating Brock is by taking him into deep water. There, there is a question mark over the champion. Personally, if I had a gun to my head, I'd have Cain winning this by decision. I think he'll know Nog's camp will be all about fighting off his back, looking to sweep him and sub him, and that means he can counter that by maintaining conservative control on the ground. But I'd give Nog more of a chance in a title fight vs Lesnar. |
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By the way, if it weren't for Brock, I'd have Cain down as the ruler of this division for a long time. He is for real, make no mistake. He is not just hype. Neither is Cigano.
The heavyweight division is now a million times better than it was three years ago. It's been incredible watching its transformation. |
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yeah very close to call,i dont think cains g+p will be as dominant in this fight as i think he will be far more cautious than he was against cheick and ben who were never going to even try subbing him. Maybe im underestimating cain slightly as he has never fought anyone like nog,from what ive seen so far his wrestling is up there with the best in the ufc but im still edging towards the far more experianced nog. Doubt ill be betting on it though,really looking forward to this fight.
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NOG will find a way to win!!
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All the money in the US has been on Velasquez. I've been watching his price during the week and he's gone from c.2.25 to c1.80. The US moves on the UFC market is usually a good sign of what's going to happen.
Our bookies, on the other hand, have no idea what's going on and I know from personal experience that a £100 bet can result in huge shifts in the odds with some bookies. They're beginning to shorten but only the ones where I've had a bet! Had all I want on Velasquez but can still get 2.00 with WH. All evidence suggests Cain will go off at about 1.80-1.85 on here. |
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NOG is a JUDO black belt (judo guys are tough to take down) and has worked extensively with Mark Munoz on his wrestling and take down defence. Plus his new strength and conditioning should help nullify Cain's takedowns.
if it was 5 rounds I'd be 100% sure he'd find a way to win but I'll take the gamble he can do enough to win inside 3. t |
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So whose getting the sack after this one?
RUTHLESS stuff last time... Trigg, Coleman, Noverre, Tim Hague and Rolles Gracie all got realased last time. Whose turn now? Silva, Jardine and Bonnar? assuming this is Cro Cop last fight win or lose. |
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http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Rothwell-Out-of-Cro-Cop-Bout-Perosh-In-22751
Rothwell's out and replaced by 'The Hippo'. Elvis Sinosic also out. I wouldn't be too optimistic about Nog's new strength and conditioning, fighters who say it actually tend to look worse. Coleman is a prime example: before his fight with Randy he was saying how his training regime was much more scientific, monitoring his heart rate, etc but he looked withered and frail just walking to the ring. The UFC would love to have a Hispanic fighter being their main heavyweight rival to Brock and so I'm sure they've thought long and hard about which top heavyweight he'd have a good chance of beating. I'm a big Nog fan but he does look a little shot, not surprising considering the number of wars he's been in. Cain is untested but those in the 'now' are saying he's the real deal and his price is continuing to shorten with the American bookmakers who are much more knowledgeable than the British ones. Free money if you take Velasquez at 2.0 with WH and the 2.05 you can get for Nog with a number of US bookies. |
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Bonnar must go imo
I'm now seriously thinking of backing Cain - Nog won't submit him from his open guard, nor will be able to stop his takedowns In fact I will take Cain. I love Nog, but think this fella is a machine who will only come unstuck against Brock |
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It's just a pity it's a 3-rounder.
I can see this going to decision with Cain winning on points. Imo, the key is if he can take Nog down and land in side control. He's been able to do it with lesser fighters but different matter doing it with Nog. If he can then I can see him dominating and (hopefully) avoiding any sub attempts. |
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agree with templeton,he has to get that side control if he wants to dominate on the ground. Im not gona bet on this ive decided,was thinking nog at the start but when its this much of a difficult decision i tend to stay clear. Randy is a good wrestler,i know he is a bit past it but he still has good wrestling and nog didnt have any real trouble with it and i am certain that if nog could get one of the subs that randy managed to get out of cain would be tapping.
Just gona sit back and cheer on Nog,Georgie and Bisping! |
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no way will jardine get sacked. Bonnar will though.
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Great write-up. Agree with most of it apart from havin Nog to win, Velasquez will destroy him easier than Mir did IMO.
Also fancy Bisping to win fairly easily, Wandy has pish cardio and will be fu(kt after the 1st round especially at middleweight. |
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Ta, but I didn't pick Nog to win :-)
Mehmet, Randy didn't use his wrestling vs Nog, thats why he didn't have any trouble with it! :^0 They traded all of r1 except when Nog dropped Randy and tried to sub him with the d'arce. In r2 they traded and it only went to the floor when Nog missed a guillotine attempt and Randy jumped on him. In r3 Nog dropped Randy again and it was spent mostly on the ground. Never once did Randy shoot on Nog. And Cain will. Time and again if he's smart. |
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Btw...is this on at the normal time in the UK?
ie 3am or anything fancy cause its in OZ? dana on twitter said its on at the normal times in the states so I'm guessing thats 3am. |