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rents
19 Jul 09 10:20
Joined:
Date Joined: 17 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 232 | Blogger: rents's blog
With just a week to go, any thoughts on where the value lies in this market? David Howell looks short at 3.15. I'm thinking of lumping on Simon Williams (when he's on form he can take down anybody) and Danny Gormally (about time for the Gorm to register another big victory). Anyone know why Rowson isn't playing this year?
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Report mythical prince July 19, 2009 1:46 PM BST
i fancy the gorm strongly this year. doesnt play that much but 30s is too big, got a bit of practice in at the big slick.
Report mythical prince July 19, 2009 1:47 PM BST
rowson isnt playing because rueben doesnt want the scots playing, wants to make it an english champs.

si just got 7.5 out of 9 in swiss champs, beating korchnoi in 27 moves with the black pieces. hebden is big as well at 24s. currently leading the scottish champs.
Report rents July 19, 2009 3:11 PM BST
I hadn't seen that Si beat Korchnoi. That's a great result, even if Korchnoi isn't what he was. Hebden would be a popular winner, but can he last the pace at the British?
Report Neveris July 19, 2009 3:53 PM BST
Well chaps,having got no satisfactory reply on the forum, I emailed Betfair about the possibility of gambing on ourselves.

The reply I got suggested that backing yourself is fine,but,somewhat obviously, laying yourself is a no no.

Presumably that also means I can't back Si or the Gorm,because that is a watered down form of laying myself.Shame that,because at those prices I like them both,or even the Heb at 23:1
Report rents July 19, 2009 4:24 PM BST
I was wondering the same thing myself (in theory, because I'm not competing). Guess it's the same principle as other sports, although the liquidity on the market is presumably too low to make any sort of fixing worthwhile? I suspect the chances of being detected must be very low, but the embarrassment factor would be high if caught.

Any chance of any late entries coming in and changing the odds? Is Rowson definitely a 'no'? With his track record, he would presumably be a decent favourite?
Report Neveris July 19, 2009 4:35 PM BST
We might be a load of decadent alcoholics,but there isn't anybody in the field who would do anything silly like that.
Mind you I must admit that last year I did back Conquest to win with 4 rounds to go,at 8:1 - it wasn't a big bet,and it was only with a friend,and of course I had no idea at the time that I would end up in a speed play off with him for the title!
Report rents July 19, 2009 4:39 PM BST
Lol. Would have to be a very big bet to influence the play off, even at those odds :)
Report Neveris July 19, 2009 4:45 PM BST
It was just a tenner
Report Buzz Lightyear July 19, 2009 5:00 PM BST
The key thing to remember in a chess tournament is whether the winner is required to deliver a speech.

This can adversely influence the motivation of various players. Some players, frequent winners, have never yet won at a such an event. Stats unfortunately are not commonly available.
Report mythical prince July 19, 2009 5:14 PM BST
rowson def aint playing.
Report its only me July 19, 2009 8:11 PM BST
Can we make sure this thread doesn't descend into another gathering of the Keith Arkell Appreciation Society. Thanks in advance.

So will we have games in-play? That would be good. Any ideas Neveris? :-)
Report bernardwhat July 19, 2009 9:44 PM BST
what the hell is this thread on about
Report Neveris July 19, 2009 10:04 PM BST
LOL its only me,I havn't read any appreciative postings so far...

Perceptive comment there Buzz! I literally have public speaking phobia,and had arranged with Reuben last year that had I won the play-off I would not have been required to make a speech.

Although to most people such matters are trivial,for people like me it's important to remove that anxiety from the equation,before the event begins,and I'll do the same this year.
Report Neveris July 19, 2009 10:08 PM BST
Ask Betfair to put the games in-play its only me,but you lot will have to generate liquidity somehow if you are to make it viable
Report Neveris July 19, 2009 10:23 PM BST
Both Miles and Adams declined to make winners speeches.Norwood was more than happy to make one on behalf of Mickey.
Report mythical prince July 20, 2009 1:27 AM BST
walofs
Report Buzz Lightyear July 20, 2009 6:42 AM BST
lol Neveris.

Some good vibes for you in Torquay:

Your fellow Birmingham GM Tony Miles won his only British at Torquay in 1982, he also beat Short in their individual game there in 1997.

Perhaps another Midlander could do it...Hebden's turn at last? He seems a big price to me, is the speech thing ok there though?
Report asdfgh9 July 20, 2009 12:04 PM BST
Hi neveris,

i saw on another thread you were looking to back yourself. If you want a decent bet, i've put up £500 to back at 5.0. I'll leave it up there for a couple of days or so
Report mythical prince July 20, 2009 1:47 PM BST
errrr i dont think hes a 4-1 shot somehow

i'd back dave at 4-1 though
Report asdfgh9 July 20, 2009 2:52 PM BST
i can't put up 4-1, but here's something at 5-2 if you want a reasonable bet
Report bernardwhat July 20, 2009 11:01 PM BST
keith c arkell at 12.5 is a cracking bet
Report Neveris July 21, 2009 1:06 AM BST
Funny Buzz,I'd forgotten about Torquay '82.
It was my first British.I drew with Miles in round 1 or 2 and then we moved in opposite directions.As you say,he won and I got 4/11 including losses to Sheila Jackson and Simon Small!

When the Championship returned to Torquay in 2002 I booked into a hotel and took a 2 week holiday,waiting for my mates to finish their games before going down the boozer with them.

At that time I simply had no desire to play for the title,perhaps at least partially because of the extremely unpleasant stick I got in the media for making a quick draw with Joe Gallagher in 2001.Ok it was a bit wimpy I know,but was it really necessary for Nigel Short to make up a story in "The Daily Telegraph'' about my mother travelling specially from Worcester to Scarborough that day to watch me play for the title,only to see me make the quick draw.
We received no fees that year and I took the draw to guarantee a good pay day,even though it meant coming second and giving 1st place to Joe.

In fact I didn't play again until last year,when my desire to win had fully returned,and that time I fought hard in every game.Even my 4 draws averaged 52 moves per game.
Report mythical prince July 21, 2009 2:31 AM BST
some1 mention sheila?
Report Buzz Lightyear July 21, 2009 9:33 AM BST
Simon Small & Sheila Jackson, there's some names from the past! Simon is a great bloke, became a father I think, and fell out of the game, wonder if he's still around. Someone once told me that Hebden, yourself, and Small hung around together on the weekend circuit. Wonder who did the driving lol.

I imagine that you're in a cut-throat business Neveris. Everybody has their pockets of friends... even then you still have to play each other, put friendship aside, maybe with your livelihood / ego on the line? It's difficult for the nice guys lol.

I hope that in itself the article didn't cause your absence from chess... hope there were other factors. Words can hurt, as my ex occasionally sees fit to demonstrate lol.

But Short can and does say anything he wants, regardless. Everyone knows that. He said that Tony Miles was "sometimes in (but mostly out) of mental insituitions".
Report jimmy69 July 21, 2009 9:56 AM BST
This is outrageous. Forumites are open to skullduggery.
Report mythical prince July 21, 2009 10:48 AM BST
"tony, tell me about insanity"
Report Buzz Lightyear July 21, 2009 11:56 AM BST
An attempted summary of prospects:

Conquest, Defending Champion: Winner in last year's playoff with Arkell. A confidence player, I'd expect last year's win to boost his chances this year. He has the temperament to see it through, but I've no idea about his mood or current form. He's hard to gauge.

Howell: is the class player in the field, if he perfoms then he wins. Many of the other contenders are dangerous players, perhaps with more tendency to drop silly points.

Jones: If he stays close to Howell, then anything could happen, think he'll go for it. Would expect him to have learned from the tough loss to Arkell last year.

Williams: similar to Jones, but I find him more speculative, creative player, but this can backfire in high stakes games. Would love to see him win it, because of his style. Probably value.

Gordon: can beat everyone in the field, he has a more solid style. Think he's value at around 10-1.

Wells: Peter will get good positions, but how much time will he have used getting there?

Arkell: close last year, the belief is there. He's more disciplined nowadays, compared to years ago anyway. I worry a bit that he needs to score his points with White, but it took him to equal first last year, so what do I know.

Hebden: has the pedigree, he needs to be in contention after week 1. Has won Hastings and Lloyds Bank, so why can't he win this? Would be great to see it happen at last.

Gormally: shoud be in contention and if he plays to win the critical games, who knows.

Trent: too big a price?
Report its only me July 21, 2009 12:59 PM BST
Knock knock
Report Neveris July 21, 2009 1:00 PM BST
Who's there?
Report its only me July 21, 2009 1:01 PM BST
Its only me
Report Neveris July 21, 2009 1:01 PM BST
Never is
Report Neveris July 21, 2009 5:29 PM BST
Who's who. hehe,well the clus are there:
I wonder if Preying thing is J.N?
rents - one of the P*** bros
pp = the G***
i t s o n l y m e = t o n y m i l e s (fan)

I give up on the rest
Report rents July 21, 2009 5:53 PM BST
Great thread. Particularly like the summary of prospects. I've put my first bit of cash on Danny and Si. More to follow, maybe....

By the way, I'm not R. or N. Do have a title, but only a baby one (Fxxx master).

Cheers

Rents
Report Credit Crunched July 21, 2009 6:22 PM BST
Come on chaps, quit waffling and get betting, only £312 matched so far which is hardly going to encourage BF to put up more chess markets in future.
Report mythical prince July 22, 2009 12:02 AM BST
Gormally: shoud be in contention and if he plays to win the critical games, who knows.

:0
Report Neveris July 22, 2009 12:49 AM BST
'Arkell:I worry a bit that he needs to score his points with White'
Penetratingly shrewd observation there Buzz Lightyear,in no way diminished by the fact that I won my last 2 Blacks last year,and scored 4/4 with Black in the recently completed Welsh International.
Report mythical prince July 22, 2009 3:36 AM BST
^

thinly veiled i love myself way too much post.
Report shimmy1 July 22, 2009 7:49 AM BST
The Gorm is the value IMO, he impressed me with his endgame technique down at the Big Slick ;)
Report Buzz Lightyear July 22, 2009 8:37 AM BST
Sorry Neveris, my facts were way wrong there.... ignoring the facts didn't even make that good a story either :-)

Gormally: my assessment was too glib, of course if he's on form he can win...sorry! :-)

It's quite difficult to assess people's chances before an event, not too easy in running either lol. Just a bit of fun really.
Report BF_ScavengerI July 22, 2009 1:57 PM BST
British Chess Championship market.
To be honest I've seen more life in a tramps vest.
Report Neveris July 22, 2009 3:20 PM BST
Hey Buzz no worries mate,just felt like exercising my John Cleese like powers of good old British sarcasm.

I reckon the market will come to life soon.Impoverished chess players/fans aren't going to want to tie up their spondulics for longer than necessary!
Report mythical prince July 22, 2009 3:26 PM BST
i agree with shimmy imo. he put up a good fight in that endgame against ansell, thats the main thing.
Report mythical prince July 22, 2009 3:29 PM BST
buzz, my shocked expression was that anyone even gives me a glimmer of a hope, :-)

tbh my prob is i dont play enough. thats why my rating has fallen to its current pathetic level. but i'll be up there in the brits at some point at least and wont be looking to make short draws.

we'll all have our chances. the main thing is not to build it up to much and just look at it like any other tournament.
Report Neveris July 22, 2009 3:38 PM BST
Yea true - and hold something back for the vital last couple of rounds,cuz at that point probably lots of people will still be able to win...

Do you realise Buzz Lightyear that in a recent survey 11/1000 people think that you were the first man on the moon.
Report Neveris July 22, 2009 3:45 PM BST
In a survey, which reveals "deeply worrying" levels of ignorance about the Apollo space programme, which sent three men to the moon forty years ago this month, 11 out of 1009 people surveyed thought Buzz Lightyear was the first person to step onto the moon.

A further 8 people thought it was Louis Armstrong, with less than three-quarters correctly answering that it was Neil Armstrong.

The survey, undertaken on behalf of E&T magazine, published by the Institution of Engineering and Technology, also revealed that over a quarter of all people do not believe the astronauts actually landed on the moon.

Arkell,get a life-you've got too much spare time on your hands - you should be preparing!

Interviewer: ''Tell me Mr Sadler,What do you do when you're not playing chess''?
Sadler ''Prepare''!
Report PreyingThing July 22, 2009 4:15 PM BST
Who's J.N.? Not me! My finest ever result (nearly) was in the British Champs, K. Arkell 0 - 1 ME.
Report mythical prince July 22, 2009 6:07 PM BST
gormally, what do u do when yer not**ing?

think about**ing!
Report rents July 22, 2009 6:11 PM BST
PreyingThing 22 Jul 17:15 "Who's J.N.? Not me! My finest ever result (nearly) was in the British Champs, K. Arkell 0 - 1 ME."

The Rents Detective Agency is on the case - see below.

http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1438764
Report jimmy69 July 22, 2009 6:14 PM BST
This is a bizarre thread.
Report Buzz Lightyear July 22, 2009 6:47 PM BST
mythical prince:

Yes ( after Howell ) it's very hard to separate the field, as you say anyone on form could come through. Your comment about treating it like any other tournament reminds me of Steve Davis's "you have to play like it means nothing, when it means everything". For most players the British is a huge event in their mind, it can't be easy for them.

lol Neveris , you mean someone beat me there? Didn't know about the mag survey. Great Sadler quote, very disappointing for British chess when he quit.
Report Neveris July 22, 2009 8:50 PM BST
A great loss for chess,and at best only a drawer for the garbage disposal industry.

Ah I think I've got it - D.L?

Don't fall for the trap of putting any player on a pedestal.To win you have to go there believing that you are the class act.
Report rents July 23, 2009 12:24 PM BST
A sudden move in the market on Gormally. Best price available now a slightly short 1.02.

Is there something we should know?
Report Worst Postman Ever July 23, 2009 12:56 PM BST
On a slightly different topic, if I never lose to an electronic chess trainer that has an ELO rating of 1400 what does that make my rating(roughly)?

Thank you in advance.
Report Neveris July 23, 2009 1:04 PM BST
Better than a 1400 chess computer
Report Neveris July 23, 2009 1:06 PM BST
1.02 might look tasty come the end of the tourney
Report Worst Postman Ever July 23, 2009 1:14 PM BST
Thanks Keith
Report mythical prince July 23, 2009 2:02 PM BST
rents 23 Jul 13:24


A sudden move in the market on Gormally. Best price available now a slightly short 1.02.

Is there something we should know?


THEY KNOW :0
Report Neveris July 23, 2009 2:15 PM BST
Soz worst! No but it's hard to really know.For a start it depends whether you are beating it the same way over and over again. Also some of those things are weaker than the advertised grade,or based on the inflated American rating system.
Having said that,if it is correctly rated and you literally beat it every time,in all sorts of different ways,then the stats would indicate that you are at least 400 points stronger than the thing,and it would be better off playing your pet dog or your neighbour's pet rabbit,or perhaps re-employed opening and shutting doors - like Marvin the Paranoid Android.
Report Worst Postman Ever July 25, 2009 7:11 PM BST
Thank you! I've only just started getting back into the game, but at 29 I think i might have left it a bit too late.
Report Neveris July 25, 2009 11:30 PM BST
It's a great game,and never too late!

For what it's worth,I'm 48 and still ambitious,and trying to correct all sorts of weaknesses in my game(within the boundaries of what's possible when you're a lazy old git like me!).

By the way,anyone know why these recant massive prices have been traded:

Heb 100
PK 60
the Gorm 50?
Report Alkeyhole July 26, 2009 6:13 PM BST
Are any of the following around?

- A decent Chess computer?
- A decent Chess program?
- A decent site where you can play chess for money?
- A decent site where you can play chess, not for money?


Used to play a long time ago but haven't touched it for years. Considering taking it up again & would be grateful for any pointers to the current state of play (I'm guessing that finding a decent site where you can play for money may be ruined by the whole computer/program thing?).

BTW, for any chess afficionados, I can't recommend this highly enough. Brilliant book:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Mysteries-Sherlock-Holmes-Smullyan**dp/0394737571/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1248631981&sr=8-1
Report Neveris July 26, 2009 11:30 PM BST
I hope that the idiots who have recently been laying Hebden at 100,Wells at 60,Gormally at 50 and myself at 20 at the very least have some stress and anxiety before the tournment is finished,in order to teach them a lesson or two about the difference between laying at any price and laying at the correct price.
One thing is certain: even if these mugs survive this crisis,it can surely not be very long before they and their money are separated.
Report Neveris July 27, 2009 10:53 AM BST
For a decent site,not for money there are none better than Internet Chess club.It's cheap,and they allow a week's free trial.
Yes I've also read that book.Great fun
Report Lori July 28, 2009 5:00 PM BST
http://www.britishchess09.com/live.htm

Top five boards "live" (I have no idea how live they are)
Report Lori July 28, 2009 5:17 PM BST
top 13 boards in fact. Exciting this Howell game, Hebden attacking like a mentalist and I'm so bad I have no idea if it'll get through :D
Report Lori July 28, 2009 5:20 PM BST
Surely that's game Hebden?
Report Lori July 28, 2009 5:29 PM BST
and that's how bad I suck at chess.
Report Credit Crunched July 28, 2009 7:11 PM BST
The live coverage is utterly shambolic, dead for about an hour now at the critical stages of the games. This follows yesterday's problem with players' names showing on the wrong boards. Come on ECF, get it sorted out!!
Report Peleus July 28, 2009 11:16 PM BST
Which prat put a bowl on Howell @ 6/4..............after too rounds, thats poor betting logic. If anything he should go out in price in my view because he did not play well today.

Howell V Gordon tmos, if he wins that, then hes 2.4 ish
Report asdfgh9 July 31, 2009 1:12 AM BST
Is Howell really that much better than everyone else?

seems to be a very short price
Report Ace High August 1, 2009 2:22 PM BST
Howell is an absolute LOCK for these championships.

Got a few G's on myself...still tempted to UNLOAD again though.

This guy is the Michael Jordan of chess.

His opponents would have to give him a frontal lobotomy just to win a set.
Report Neveris August 2, 2009 4:07 AM BST
it's a funny old game
Report minardi August 2, 2009 10:32 PM BST
What price should wells be ? if just had £15 quid at between 46 and 55. He is lying in second place ffs - or am i the one being stupid ?
Report Neveris August 3, 2009 9:13 AM BST
The top 2 seeds are ahead of Wells,and altogether there are 29 players within a point of him.

Of course Peter is a strong Grandmaster,but today he is faced with Black against Howell.
Report minardi August 3, 2009 12:20 PM BST
Thanks for that - yep sounds a about right then 50's. Of course if he does beat Howell with black - a big if - it completely changes.

Also had £2 on yourself at 55's !
Report stu August 3, 2009 2:01 PM BST
which player are you neveris?
Report stu August 3, 2009 2:10 PM BST
(answer when he's finished playing of course) :)
Report stefan1959- August 3, 2009 8:47 PM BST
neveris shares his name with outstanding national hunt horse.He has done a simul at our club and played there this year
Decent guy and obviously top player
Report Neveris August 3, 2009 8:59 PM BST
I'm KCA Stu- having an indifferent tournament.

For example today I have no idea why I didn't play 51.. f4+ winning by force(eg 52 Kg2 Re1 or 52 Kg4 e3!).I looked at it,saw no defence,but played 51..Rd1 instead,thinking that was also winning.

What I missed was that if I play 53..Rg1+(53...e3 54 Kf3! doesn't help) he can set up a fortress with 54 Kf4 Rf1+ 55 Ke5 d1=Q 56 Rd1 Ne3! and it's a book draw,or here 54...d1 = Q 55 Nd1 Rd1 and again Ne3! draws.
Report Neveris August 3, 2009 9:02 PM BST
Sorry - missed a move out there(my recapture 56...Rd1) so that then he plays 57 Ne3! drawing
Report Neveris August 3, 2009 9:03 PM BST
Hi Stefan - only just saw your posting
Report stefan1959- August 3, 2009 10:01 PM BST
hi nev,hope your luck changes.
You played my son,board 1 for Wallasey and turned him over.Good luck for the rest of the week.
Report stu August 4, 2009 7:30 AM BST
Ah, ok - I'm a bit of a journeyman club player who used to play a lot of the weekend tournies in the 90's - remember a period where you were playing loads of those and winning most of them I seem to remember. I've not played so much recently, is the weekend tournament thing still going as strong these days?
Report Neveris August 4, 2009 7:41 AM BST
Cheers Stefan!

The weekenders are ok for fun Stu,but the prizes are appalling.Same as they were - no, worse than they were, in the 70s! I tend to focus on internationals,club chess and giving simuls these days.
Report stu August 4, 2009 7:43 AM BST
Yeh, kind of guessed so. I've only ever played as a hobbie, and used to wonder how you pros managed to make a living from chess, must be hard at times? The living ok overall?
Report Neveris August 4, 2009 9:27 AM BST
not too bad as long as we limit ourselvs to just the one yacht,and don't go buying too many islands ;o)
Report stu August 4, 2009 5:16 PM BST
:)

Was never worth the brain-strain for me, but then guess that's because I wasn't good enough either!

Nice neat win today I see, guess he missed the N*e5 tactic?

Best of luck for the end of the tourney.
Report Neveris August 4, 2009 11:38 PM BST
Cheers stu,I didn't play all that well but yes got there in the end.

Tomorrrow I've been paired against my ex wife's husband!
Report stefan1959- August 7, 2009 4:03 PM BST
Howell just drew to put himself over the winning line.Others can`t catch him now
Report jimmy69 August 10, 2009 11:37 AM BST
Neveris 27 Jul 00:30


I hope that the idiots who have recently been laying Hebden at 100,Wells at 60,Gormally at 50 and myself at 20 at the very least have some stress and anxiety before the tournment is finished,in order to teach them a lesson or two about the difference between laying at any price and laying at the correct price.
One thing is certain: even if these mugs survive this crisis,it can surely not be very long before they and their money are separated.

LOL Keith
Report Klaus Kinski January 13, 2010 10:43 PM GMT
:)
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