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Before Week 11, wide open
| 8 | Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) | 150 | Houston Texans(4-5) | |
| 9 | Los Angeles Rams (7-2) | 210 | Minnesota Vikings (4-5) | |
| 9.4 | Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) | 260 | Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) | |
| 9.4 | Detroit Lions (6-3) | 360 | Dallas Cowboys(3-5-1) | |
| 10.5 | Buffalo Bills (6-3) | 400 | Carolina Panthers (5-5) | |
| 12 | Seattle Seahawks (7-2) | 430 | Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) | |
| 13.5 | Baltimore Ravens (4-5) | 550 | Atlanta Falcons (3-6) | |
| 14.5 | Indianapolis Colts (8-2) | 1000 | Miami Dolphins (3-7) | |
| 18.5 | Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) | 1000 | Washington Commanders (3-7) | |
| 21 | New England Patriots (8-2) | 1000 | Arizona Cardinals (3-6) | |
| 24 | Denver Broncos (8-2) | 1000 | New Orleans Saints (2-8) | |
| 36 | Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) | 1000 | Tennessee Titans (1-8) | |
| 38 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) | 1000 | Cleveland Browns (2-7) | |
| 75 | San Francisco 49ers (6-4) | 1000 | Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) | |
| 110 | Chicago Bears (6-3) | 1000 | New York Giants (2-8) | |
| 120 | Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) | 1000 | New York Jets (2-8) |
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This is starting to mimic last season, the Eagles with mid season offense woes and the circus surrounding AJ Brown but then they put it behind them and begin to rise up and seperate themselves particularly on defence, basically as long as they are no more than average on offence then they won't be beat because on defence they are beginning to look like they are just going to wreck every opponent.
6.8 looks pretty decent for a repeat.
6.8 looks pretty decent for a repeat.
Watching the game last night the Lions are, on their day the most explosive team on offence and they had their moments last night with Williams and Gibbs, but you never ever got the feeling that the Eagles were in any danger whatsoever, Goff was like a cat on hot bricks getting rushed all night and St. Brown was anonymous, the Eagles just held them at arms length the whole time, Aiden Hutchinson another vaunted defensive player another non factor.
My position after Week 11
| 143 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| 338 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | Houston Texans | |
| 83 | Buffalo Bills | 157 | Dallas Cowboys | |
| 185 | Kansas City Chiefs | 39 | Carolina Panthers | |
| 158 | Detroit Lions | 399 | Minnesota Vikings | |
| 131 | Baltimore Ravens | 130 | Miami Dolphins | |
| 178 | Indianapolis Colts | 5 | Atlanta Falcons | |
| 190 | Seattle Seahawks | 39 | New York Giants | |
| 170 | Denver Broncos | 39 | Cleveland Browns | |
| 137 | Green Bay Packers | 39 | New York Jets | |
| 285 | New England Patriots | 39 | New Orleans Saints | |
| 234 | San Francisco 49ers | 160 | Las Vegas Raiders | |
| 159 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 80 | Arizona Cardinals | |
| 189 | Los Angeles Chargers | 134 | Washington Commanders | |
| 155 | Chicago Bears | 82 | Cincinnati Bengals | |
| 322 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 39 | Tennessee Titans |
Nov 17, 2025 -- 11:36PM, duffy wrote:
This is starting to mimic last season, the Eagles with mid season offense woes and the circus surrounding AJ Brown but then they put it behind them and begin to rise up and seperate themselves particularly on defence, basically as long as they are no more than average on offence then they won't be beat because on defence they are beginning to look like they are just going to wreck every opponent.6.8 looks pretty decent for a repeat.
Yeah it could like last season perhaps. But also could be like 2023 when they had an impressive winning record at this stage but weren't impressive to watch, and then deteriorated at the end of the season and were blown out in the 1st round of the play offs. AJ Brown is dismissed as a diva but I think he has a point that you can't expect to win every game scoring 16pts and they will get found out if they don't get the offense going.
In my outright betting the annoying thing is the number of times a team i was green on blew a 4th quarter 2 TD lead, or a team I was red on came back from 10+ down in Q4. Obviously this often happened in the same game 
Fortunately I was staking quite cautiously and have never had any big reds or greens so far.
I have been green on the Eagles from the start, seemed great value around 8 as dominant champions bringing back all the main players and so there was no way they would be much below their 2024 level. But they have been a long way below their level of last year! Barkley has not got going at all being the main reason. I don't think they are great value right now but will probably keep green.
The LA Rams I also backed from the start and happy with that. They are 8-2 and must have been sub 1.10 in the 2 games they lost.
The Buffalo Bills I started out small red and now small green. Very erratic team, hard to make any predictions from here.
I've been doing this outright market from 2018 and this is the first year I have not been green on the Kansas City Chiefs. Layed them from the start and if I'd known they'd be at 5-5 I would expect they'd be priced 18 to 19 but the market believes in them still.
The Ravens were one of my 2 or 3 main backs at the start and I was very happy with how they demolished the Bills in week 1
. When they fell to 1-4 I went red and I'm not seeing any reason to change back at 5-5. They are not impressive and it seems to me they may have 'missed their window'. Likely he same is true of the Lions though I have enough reds to be going on with.
Fortunately I was staking quite cautiously and have never had any big reds or greens so far.
I have been green on the Eagles from the start, seemed great value around 8 as dominant champions bringing back all the main players and so there was no way they would be much below their 2024 level. But they have been a long way below their level of last year! Barkley has not got going at all being the main reason. I don't think they are great value right now but will probably keep green.
The LA Rams I also backed from the start and happy with that. They are 8-2 and must have been sub 1.10 in the 2 games they lost.
The Buffalo Bills I started out small red and now small green. Very erratic team, hard to make any predictions from here.
I've been doing this outright market from 2018 and this is the first year I have not been green on the Kansas City Chiefs. Layed them from the start and if I'd known they'd be at 5-5 I would expect they'd be priced 18 to 19 but the market believes in them still.
The Ravens were one of my 2 or 3 main backs at the start and I was very happy with how they demolished the Bills in week 1
. When they fell to 1-4 I went red and I'm not seeing any reason to change back at 5-5. They are not impressive and it seems to me they may have 'missed their window'. Likely he same is true of the Lions though I have enough reds to be going on with.
With the Colts and Seahawks I just don't believe their winning ratios are sustainable with Daniel Jones & Sam Darnold. They are both now showing signs of returning to 'factory settings'.
Though it was impressive that Darnold could have a TD:INT ratio of 0:4 and the Seahawks still nearly beat the Rams.
I just cannot have either the Broncos or the Packers. I've seen a lot of them and they can go three and out for an hour at a time. The jury is still out on Bo Nix but I think Jordan Love will never become consistent enough.
The Patriots I gave no chance to at the start but started backing when I thought they were being underrated relative to the Colts&Broncos. They look pretty good and I think most likely to get the number 1 seed. Of course though their schedule is very weak. The 49ers I went red on due to all their injuries but every time I saw them after that they were impressive. I thought it was a mistake to bench Mac Jones but then Purdy came back and played well. They are a team that is just going to get on with it and IMO should make the play offs and be hard to beat there.
The Buccaneers are a team I like to watch but I do think their injuries are too much to overcome. The Chargers looked good in September before their injuries hit but since then have been godawaful in their losses and their wins were against rubbish.
The Bears are 7-3 but whenever I've seen them they are struggling against a bad team before scrambling a win at the end somehow. Doesn't seem sustainable. The Jaguars are one of my higher greens because I didn't get the lay part of a trade matched, they don't look anywhere near contender level.
The Steelers I think may give Tomlin his first losing season. The Texans have done well to get back to 5-5 but seem below their levels of last 2 years.
Though it was impressive that Darnold could have a TD:INT ratio of 0:4 and the Seahawks still nearly beat the Rams.
I just cannot have either the Broncos or the Packers. I've seen a lot of them and they can go three and out for an hour at a time. The jury is still out on Bo Nix but I think Jordan Love will never become consistent enough.
The Patriots I gave no chance to at the start but started backing when I thought they were being underrated relative to the Colts&Broncos. They look pretty good and I think most likely to get the number 1 seed. Of course though their schedule is very weak. The 49ers I went red on due to all their injuries but every time I saw them after that they were impressive. I thought it was a mistake to bench Mac Jones but then Purdy came back and played well. They are a team that is just going to get on with it and IMO should make the play offs and be hard to beat there.
The Buccaneers are a team I like to watch but I do think their injuries are too much to overcome. The Chargers looked good in September before their injuries hit but since then have been godawaful in their losses and their wins were against rubbish.
The Bears are 7-3 but whenever I've seen them they are struggling against a bad team before scrambling a win at the end somehow. Doesn't seem sustainable. The Jaguars are one of my higher greens because I didn't get the lay part of a trade matched, they don't look anywhere near contender level.
The Steelers I think may give Tomlin his first losing season. The Texans have done well to get back to 5-5 but seem below their levels of last 2 years.
Good stuff tobes, aside from the Eagles as the likely winners the price that stands out to me, certainly perhaps from a future trading point of view is the 95 on the exchange for the Jaguars and I see you've got them a nice green, I think they can still win the AFC South with having to play the Colts twice and Titans twice and the Jets too.
The Jags are one of those teams who if you have to play them frighten you to death because although there is the very real possibility that Lawrence can throw in a game where he looks like he's never played before, they are also quite capable of beating anyone on a going day and slowly but surely it looks like Coen is beginning to sort Lawrence's inconsistency out, their price definitely provides a decent "fun" bet.
The Jags are one of those teams who if you have to play them frighten you to death because although there is the very real possibility that Lawrence can throw in a game where he looks like he's never played before, they are also quite capable of beating anyone on a going day and slowly but surely it looks like Coen is beginning to sort Lawrence's inconsistency out, their price definitely provides a decent "fun" bet.
Getting more of a puzzle by the week. The Eagles being completely unable to stop the Bears running all over them is a bit of an eye-opener. Suddenly you look at the standings, the Bears are 9-3 after starting 0-2 and they can still be backed at 30+.
my position
||
| 337 | Los Angeles Rams | 137 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |
| 158 | Philadelphia Eagles | 141 | Los Angeles Chargers | |
| 191 | Buffalo Bills | 106 | Jacksonville Jaguars | |
| 83 | Seattle Seahawks | 103 | Cincinnati Bengals | |
| 77 | Green Bay Packers | 146 | Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| 236 | New England Patriots | 50 | Dallas Cowboys | |
| 195 | Denver Broncos | 63 | Carolina Panthers | |
| 191 | Baltimore Ravens | 50 | Washington Commanders | |
| 119 | Kansas City Chiefs | 122 | Cleveland Browns | |
| 162 | Detroit Lions | 122 | New York Jets | |
| 122 | Indianapolis Colts | 481 | Minnesota Vikings | |
| 242 | San Francisco 49ers | 46 | Miami Dolphins | |
| 230 | Houston Texans | 87 | Atlanta Falcons | |
| 103 | Chicago Bears |
gonna be some huge swings in the outright with Sunday's match ups !
Nice Book Tobe , Tex could be a real Spoiler , Defence is something else
After week 15
| 5.5 | Los Angeles Rams (11-3) | 26 | Baltimore Ravens(7-7) | |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills (10-4) | 32 | Detroit Lions (8-6) | |
| 9.4 | Seattle Seahawks (11-3) | 32 | Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) | |
| 9.6 | Denver Broncos (12-2) | 34 | Chicago Bears(10-4) | |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) | 65 | Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) | |
| 14.5 | Houston Texans (9-5) | 75 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) | |
| 16.5 | New England Patriots (11-3) | 330 | Carolina Panthers (7-7) | |
| 19.5 | Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) | 580 | Indianapolis Colts (8-6) | |
| 24 | San Francisco 49ers (10-4) | 1000 | Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) | |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) |
Crazy that in 5 games the Chiefs went from favourites to being eliminated when there are still 19 teams mathematically in it.
Dec 17, 2025 -- 10:09PM, the old nanny ;-) wrote:
Nice Book Tobe , Tex could be a real Spoiler
I went an even bigger red on them. Don't seem able to score against anyone good. They couldn't move the ball at all v the Chiefs but Andy Reid had a brainstorm and gave it to them.
Good call on the Jags, Duffy. I've gone red on them myself
Before Play Offs
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks (14-3) | 16.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars(13-4) | |
| 5.7 | Los Angeles Rams (12-5) | 28 | Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) | |
| 9 | Denver Broncos (14-3) | 32 | Chicago Bears (11-6) | |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) | 34 | San Francisco 49ers(12-5) | |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills (12-5) | 38 | Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) | |
| 12.5 | New England Patriots (14-3) | 55 | Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) | |
| 14.5 | Houston Texans (12-5) | 200 | Carolina Panthers (8-9) |
I had a nicely balanced book up to the Seattle-SF game, but then I decided that the 49ers would win that one and went big on them 
I decided to double down on both greens and reds rather than accept a smaller win
I decided to double down on both greens and reds rather than accept a smaller win
| 259 | Seattle Seahawks | 240 | Jacksonville Jaguars | |
| 343 | Los Angeles Rams | 175 | Green Bay Packers | |
| 243 | Denver Broncos | 489 | Chicago Bears | |
| 263 | Philadelphia Eagles | 489 | San Francisco 49ers | |
| 384 | Buffalo Bills | 205 | Los Angeles Chargers | |
| 285 | New England Patriots | 166 | Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| 292 | Houston Texans | 36 | Carolina Panthers |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 9.2 | Denver Broncos | |
| 4.7 | Los Angeles Rams | 11 | Houston Texans | |
| 7.4 | Buffalo Bills | 20 | Chicago Bears | |
| 7.8 | New England Patriots | 24 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 273 | Seattle Seahawks | 228 | Denver Broncos | |
| 331 | Los Angeles Rams | 261 | Houston Texans | |
| 350 | Buffalo Bills | 242 | Chicago Bears | |
| 272 | New England Patriots | 530 | San Francisco 49ers |
9 ers it is then Tobe 
No clue wtf was Going on last Hawks game TBH
No clue wtf was Going on last Hawks game TBH
yeah, I'd like to think that last game was just a bad day. If both these 1 seeds get through I'm gonna lose.
| 2.60 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 3.35 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4.1 | New England Patriots |
| 12 | Denver Broncos |
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