Pittsburgh Steelers -v- Baltimore Ravens (Week 18)

These two teams are closely matched, albeit at a completely average level. The season started off promisingly for Baltimore but then fizzled out as Lamar's performances dipped substantially. Conversely, Pittsburgh and Roethlisberger started off badly and they would probably be pleased to still be vaguely in with a shout of making the post-season into the last week.

Both sides are relying on Jacksonville beating Indianapolis to have a chance of staying involved. Given that that looks a very unlikely possibility, it's worth considering which team might be bringing more impetus and heart into this game. Here, the Steelers have the edge... they arrive on the back of an emotional win and this is very likely to be Ben's last QB appearance. Their defensive line, and especially the formidable TJ Watt, were on fire in the latter stages against Cleveland and give them a real chance of winning here in spite of their moderate offensive weaponry.

The predictor - which doesn't know anything about the end of season picture, calculations or upcoming retirements - has this as Pittsburgh Steelers 25-23 Baltimore Ravens, and it was a narrow margin of victory when they met a few weeks ago (one of two games the Ravens lost recently when going for a 2pt conversion rather than opting to take the game into overtime).

This wouldn't normally suggest it would be a game to bet on, but along with a slight edge for Pittsburgh from the predictor, recent form and their head-to-head, they will possibly want this win a bit more AND they are priced up at a whopping 2/1 at the moment. I'm happy to take a chance on them at that price.