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tobermory
09 Dec 21 23:38
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 3,885 | Blogger: tobermory's blog
Friday 1:21

2.68 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings 1.59


Sunday 18:01

2.30 Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers 1.77
2.34 Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns 1.74
1.53 Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team 2.88
4.9 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans 1.25
4.9 Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs 1.25
1.45 New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets 3.2
1.29 Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans 4.4


Sunday 21:06

5 Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos 1.25
5 New York Giants @ Los Angeles Chargers 1.25


Sunday 21:26


2.62 Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.62
1.87 San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals 2.14


Monday 1:21

6.8 Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers 1.17


Tuesday 1:21

2.26 Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals 1.79
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Report tobermory December 9, 2021 11:39 PM GMT
Very surprised to see the Ravens underdogs to the Browns.
Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 12:35 AM GMT
Very much agreed on the Ravens/Browns tobermory... maybe they know something we don't!
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 12:40 AM GMT
I had to check to see if Lamar was out, but no.

In the last game he played about as bad as possible but they still won.
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 12:41 AM GMT
Vikings a bit short tonight with Adam Thielen out ?
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 12:49 AM GMT
How are the Texans 4.4 at home against the Seahawks? They beat the Titans a fortnight ago and Tennessee are a far superior team to Seattle.

Too much being made of Seahawk's win last week against 49ers. They have been pathetic the previous three weeks and Wilson throwing with a bad hand.

I can't resist that price on Houston. Seattle being priced on past reputation imo.  Not saying Seahawks will definitely not win but the prices are bonkers. Way off the mark. Texans for I on moneyline at 4.4 and handicap +8.5
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 12:58 AM GMT
Yes T, Thielen a big miss. No big bet for I. Can't depend on any of the two QBs. Cousins totally inconsistent and Big Ben over the hill.

..... Just for an interest:

Jefferson first TD @ 11/2
Jefferson anytime TD @ 10/11
Jefferson two or more TD @ 7/2
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 1:00 AM GMT
Yeah I thought Texans/Seahawks would be more like 3.0/1.5 odds
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 1:05 AM GMT
At them prices one couldn't lose.

It would be 1\2 and 7\4 T.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 1:06 AM GMT
Apologies my mistake T.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 1:08 AM GMT
Have you get anything tonight T?
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 1:14 AM GMT
Like you said, hard to be confident about either of these. Minnesota the better team usually but no Thielen and Dalvin Cook plays although he dislocated his shoulder the other week.

If I thought the Steelers would play as well as last week I'd back them at the prices, but that seemed to come out of the blue and likely they will revert to previous form.
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 1:16 AM GMT
The Jefferson bets seem reasonable as he has to be most of their gameplan.
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 1:27 AM GMT
damn, Jefferson almost had one in the first 3 minutes
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 1:50 AM GMT
Jefferson first TD @ 11/2
Jefferson anytime TD @ 10/11
Jefferson two or more TD @ 7/2


Landed the first two bets already, nice.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 2:30 AM GMT
This is a massacre so far. One way traffic.

Two up Tobermory on the Jefferson bets like you say. Should be three. Twice so near. Plenty of time but I wish he would get it quick.

... Reading between your posts, I conclude you are on too. I hope so mate.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 2:33 AM GMT
Yet another chance blown. A better throw from Cousins and Jefferson scores.
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 2:41 AM GMT
nah, never bet on the game at all.

Yeah, unlucky not to have all 3 up by now, Steelers getting demolished.
Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 3:15 AM GMT
Jeez... Steelers' offensive line has completely disintegrated here. It's almost hard to watch...
Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 3:39 AM GMT
And every snap is above Ben's right shoulder... come on guys!
Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 3:47 AM GMT
Najee having a good spell here. Snaps still crazy bad! Laugh
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 4:08 AM GMT
1.01 in some trouble now, 9pts game with long way to go.
Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 4:16 AM GMT
That TD probably settles it, but the Vikings seem intent on making things 'interesting' every game they play!
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 4:25 AM GMT
From 29-0 to 36-28
Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 4:28 AM GMT

Dec 9, 2021 -- 6:49PM, themightymac wrote:


How are the Texans 4.4 at home against the Seahawks? They beat the Titans a fortnight ago and Tennessee are a far superior team to Seattle. Too much being made of Seahawk's win last week against 49ers. They have been pathetic the previous three weeks and Wilson throwing with a bad hand.I can't resist that price on Houston. Seattle being priced on past reputation imo.

Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 4:29 AM GMT

Dec 9, 2021 -- 10:25PM, tobermory wrote:


From 29-0 to 36-28


Yeah, it's been a fun last 20 minutes!!!

Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 4:40 AM GMT
Mac, I just wrote a whole bit about why the Texans shouldn't be able to beat Seattle, but the forum gremlins appear to have swallowed it.

In essence, yes the price is wrong (I'd go 1.56/2.53), but Seattle might only need 18pts to win.

Houston are almost certainly the weakest team in the NFL, have changed their starting QB about a hundred times already this season, and face a surprisingly adequate Seahawks defense.

I am almost certain the game against the Titans was an anomaly. Tennessee were out of sorts, and everything that could go wrong did, including a shocker (and four interceptions) for Tannehill. They still outyarded Houston by more than 2:1 and only lost by 8 points. I don't think this 'form' is worth anything.

I wouldn't back Seattle at the prices though, and couldn't back Houston with someone else's money, even though they might theoretically be good value...
Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 4:45 AM GMT
1.01 backers can afford to go and buy some new underwear now...

Great game in the end, having looked a non-event for 40 minutes!
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 4:46 AM GMT
Imagine being 29-0 up late in the 3rd quarter, but having to bite your nails to the last play (which was almost a TD)

Crazy game.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 4:48 AM GMT
Twenty nine points up near end of third quarter and Vikings just hold on Laugh Zimmer is a zoomer. Crazy
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 4:48 AM GMT
I see Tyrod Taylor is probably out for the Texans, which maybe explains the price, as I think the back up, Mills, is a bit out of his depth.
Report tobermory December 10, 2021 4:50 AM GMT
Other underdogs I like are the Jets @3.2 v the totally gone Saints, and Detroit @5 vs the Broncos.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 4:50 AM GMT
Well two out of three bets up on Jefferson. Take that every time.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 4:51 AM GMT
I like the Jets too T.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 4:51 AM GMT
I like the Jets too T.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 4:54 AM GMT
Texans game is going to be very interesting. I'm out numbered lol but I stick with Houston at the over price. Wilson is not 100%. And Metcalfe in the huff.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 4:57 AM GMT
Good post Non Vintage. Interesting to get others opinions. I would wish you good luck but I can't for obvious reasons lol.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 4:57 AM GMT
Good post Non Vintage. Interesting to get others opinions. I would wish you good luck but I can't for obvious reasons lol.
Report NonVintage December 10, 2021 4:57 AM GMT
I'd say that both those favourites are marginally too short, and there are reasons for being interested in both outsiders. For me, not enough to back them, but yes I can see where you are coming from.

From my perspective (still in theoretical value terms rather than actual bets), Tampa Bay are too short against Buffalo, and even though I love the Cardinals this year, I could see them getting into trouble against the Rams - am surprised they are so solid as favourites.
Report themightymac December 10, 2021 4:58 AM GMT
Goodnight folks.
Report NonVintage December 12, 2021 6:28 PM GMT
Anyone else think Jacksonville might be such an unhappy camp that they strategically allow the Titans to run in a cricket score?
Report themightymac December 12, 2021 9:07 PM GMT
Well done NV with Seahawks. Easy in the end. Wilson big improvement.
Report themightymac December 12, 2021 9:09 PM GMT
Poor lot are the Jags. There were lot of better QBs available in draft than Lawrence. Bad choice.
Report themightymac December 12, 2021 9:09 PM GMT
Poor lot are the Jags. There were lot of better QBs available in draft than Lawrence. Bad choice.
Report tobermory December 12, 2021 9:14 PM GMT
Dallas making a mess now
Report themightymac December 12, 2021 9:58 PM GMT
Why can't teams see out huge leads in fourth quarter? Cleveland, Vikings and Cowboys being Prime examples the past few days. Torture for spread bettors.
Report tobermory December 12, 2021 10:43 PM GMT
The guy who keeps putting hundreds up to back the Bills for Super Bowl at any price surely has to face reality now.

Might struggle to make play offs.
Report tobermory December 13, 2021 12:19 AM GMT
Hmmm

Tampa v Bills from 24-3 to 27-24

49ers v Bengals from 20-6 to 20-20
Report tobermory December 13, 2021 12:19 AM GMT
Tom Brady is 106-1 with a 20pt lead
Report tobermory December 13, 2021 12:26 AM GMT
wow catch of the season by Kittle to set up FG
Report tobermory December 13, 2021 12:28 AM GMT
Missed
Report themightymac December 13, 2021 12:38 AM GMT
Crazy season T.
Report tobermory December 13, 2021 12:40 AM GMT
Tampa were 1.02
Report casemoney December 13, 2021 12:42 AM GMT
Money Buyers Sweating
Report casemoney December 13, 2021 12:49 AM GMT
ShockedTight
Report casemoney December 13, 2021 12:49 AM GMT
Never got there IMO
Report casemoney December 13, 2021 12:52 AM GMT
Tom and the Zebras
Report casemoney December 13, 2021 12:55 AM GMT
That was not a PI ,Tom gets it Done .
Report tobermory December 13, 2021 12:59 AM GMT
They were lucky with calls.

Buffalo should have had the ball on the one yard line at end of regulation but no flag thrown.
Report casemoney December 13, 2021 1:17 AM GMT
How has the Lineman called that on 3rd and short ,watching replays ever so Tight , once called on the Field very hard to reverse
Report grayhawk December 13, 2021 2:45 AM GMT
Can't recall a worse half of special teams play than what the Packers have displayed tonight ......unbelievable Shocked
Report wisewords December 13, 2021 2:48 AM GMT
what a pointfest
Report grayhawk December 13, 2021 3:04 AM GMT
* by ANY team
Report NonVintage December 14, 2021 10:22 PM GMT

Dec 12, 2021 -- 3:58PM, themightymac wrote:


Why can't teams see out huge leads in fourth quarter? Cleveland, Vikings and Cowboys being Prime examples the past few days. Torture for spread bettors.


I think that is the peril of betting on the spreads, mac. If you are 20pts up and playing better than the other team - especially if you feel your defense is dominating their offense, it makes sense to rest players, avoid injuries, coast to victory even if that means giving back a bit of thar lead. The win matters much more than the margin, which is virtually irrelevant.

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