NFL WEEK 14

Very surprised to see the Ravens underdogs to the Browns.

Very much agreed on the Ravens/Browns tobermory... maybe they know something we don't!

I had to check to see if Lamar was out, but no.

In the last game he played about as bad as possible but they still won.

Vikings a bit short tonight with Adam Thielen out ?

How are the Texans 4.4 at home against the Seahawks? They beat the Titans a fortnight ago and Tennessee are a far superior team to Seattle.

Too much being made of Seahawk's win last week against 49ers. They have been pathetic the previous three weeks and Wilson throwing with a bad hand.

I can't resist that price on Houston. Seattle being priced on past reputation imo.  Not saying Seahawks will definitely not win but the prices are bonkers. Way off the mark. Texans for I on moneyline at 4.4 and handicap +8.5

Yes T, Thielen a big miss. No big bet for I. Can't depend on any of the two QBs. Cousins totally inconsistent and Big Ben over the hill.

..... Just for an interest:

Jefferson first TD @ 11/2
Jefferson anytime TD @ 10/11
Jefferson two or more TD @ 7/2

Yeah I thought Texans/Seahawks would be more like 3.0/1.5 odds

At them prices one couldn't lose.

It would be 1\2 and 7\4 T.

Apologies my mistake T.

Have you get anything tonight T?

Like you said, hard to be confident about either of these. Minnesota the better team usually but no Thielen and Dalvin Cook plays although he dislocated his shoulder the other week.

If I thought the Steelers would play as well as last week I'd back them at the prices, but that seemed to come out of the blue and likely they will revert to previous form.

The Jefferson bets seem reasonable as he has to be most of their gameplan.

damn, Jefferson almost had one in the first 3 minutes

Jefferson first TD @ 11/2
Jefferson anytime TD @ 10/11
Jefferson two or more TD @ 7/2

Landed the first two bets already, nice.

This is a massacre so far. One way traffic.

Two up Tobermory on the Jefferson bets like you say. Should be three. Twice so near. Plenty of time but I wish he would get it quick.

... Reading between your posts, I conclude you are on too. I hope so mate.

Yet another chance blown. A better throw from Cousins and Jefferson scores.

nah, never bet on the game at all.

Yeah, unlucky not to have all 3 up by now, Steelers getting demolished.

Jeez... Steelers' offensive line has completely disintegrated here. It's almost hard to watch...

And every snap is above Ben's right shoulder... come on guys!

Najee having a good spell here. Snaps still crazy bad!

1.01 in some trouble now, 9pts game with long way to go.

That TD probably settles it, but the Vikings seem intent on making things 'interesting' every game they play!

From 29-0 to 36-28

Dec 10, 2021 -- 12:49AM, themightymac wrote:

How are the Texans 4.4 at home against the Seahawks? They beat the Titans a fortnight ago and Tennessee are a far superior team to Seattle. Too much being made of Seahawk's win last week against 49ers. They have been pathetic the previous three weeks and Wilson throwing with a bad hand.I can't resist that price on Houston. Seattle being priced on past reputation imo.

Dec 10, 2021 -- 4:25AM, tobermory wrote:

From 29-0 to 36-28

Yeah, it's been a fun last 20 minutes!!!

Mac, I just wrote a whole bit about why the Texans shouldn't be able to beat Seattle, but the forum gremlins appear to have swallowed it.

In essence, yes the price is wrong (I'd go 1.56/2.53), but Seattle might only need 18pts to win.

Houston are almost certainly the weakest team in the NFL, have changed their starting QB about a hundred times already this season, and face a surprisingly adequate Seahawks defense.

I am almost certain the game against the Titans was an anomaly. Tennessee were out of sorts, and everything that could go wrong did, including a shocker (and four interceptions) for Tannehill. They still outyarded Houston by more than 2:1 and only lost by 8 points. I don't think this 'form' is worth anything.

I wouldn't back Seattle at the prices though, and couldn't back Houston with someone else's money, even though they might theoretically be good value...

1.01 backers can afford to go and buy some new underwear now...

Great game in the end, having looked a non-event for 40 minutes!

Imagine being 29-0 up late in the 3rd quarter, but having to bite your nails to the last play (which was almost a TD)

Crazy game.

Twenty nine points up near end of third quarter and Vikings just hold on Zimmer is a zoomer.

I see Tyrod Taylor is probably out for the Texans, which maybe explains the price, as I think the back up, Mills, is a bit out of his depth.

Other underdogs I like are the Jets @3.2 v the totally gone Saints, and Detroit @5 vs the Broncos.

Well two out of three bets up on Jefferson. Take that every time.

I like the Jets too T.

I like the Jets too T.

Texans game is going to be very interesting. I'm out numbered lol but I stick with Houston at the over price. Wilson is not 100%. And Metcalfe in the huff.

Good post Non Vintage. Interesting to get others opinions. I would wish you good luck but I can't for obvious reasons lol.

Good post Non Vintage. Interesting to get others opinions. I would wish you good luck but I can't for obvious reasons lol.

I'd say that both those favourites are marginally too short, and there are reasons for being interested in both outsiders. For me, not enough to back them, but yes I can see where you are coming from.

From my perspective (still in theoretical value terms rather than actual bets), Tampa Bay are too short against Buffalo, and even though I love the Cardinals this year, I could see them getting into trouble against the Rams - am surprised they are so solid as favourites.

Goodnight folks.

Anyone else think Jacksonville might be such an unhappy camp that they strategically allow the Titans to run in a cricket score?

Well done NV with Seahawks. Easy in the end. Wilson big improvement.

Poor lot are the Jags. There were lot of better QBs available in draft than Lawrence. Bad choice.

Poor lot are the Jags. There were lot of better QBs available in draft than Lawrence. Bad choice.

Dallas making a mess now

Why can't teams see out huge leads in fourth quarter? Cleveland, Vikings and Cowboys being Prime examples the past few days. Torture for spread bettors.

The guy who keeps putting hundreds up to back the Bills for Super Bowl at any price surely has to face reality now.

Might struggle to make play offs.

Hmmm

Tampa v Bills from 24-3 to 27-24

49ers v Bengals from 20-6 to 20-20

Tom Brady is 106-1 with a 20pt lead

wow catch of the season by Kittle to set up FG

Missed

Crazy season T.

Tampa were 1.02

Money Buyers Sweating

Tight

Never got there IMO

Tom and the Zebras

That was not a PI ,Tom gets it Done .

They were lucky with calls.

Buffalo should have had the ball on the one yard line at end of regulation but no flag thrown.

How has the Lineman called that on 3rd and short ,watching replays ever so Tight , once called on the Field very hard to reverse

Can't recall a worse half of special teams play than what the Packers have displayed tonight ......unbelievable

what a pointfest

* by ANY team

Dec 12, 2021 -- 9:58PM, themightymac wrote:

Why can't teams see out huge leads in fourth quarter? Cleveland, Vikings and Cowboys being Prime examples the past few days. Torture for spread bettors.

I think that is the peril of betting on the spreads, mac. If you are 20pts up and playing better than the other team - especially if you feel your defense is dominating their offense, it makes sense to rest players, avoid injuries, coast to victory even if that means giving back a bit of thar lead. The win matters much more than the margin, which is virtually irrelevant.