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No selections from the predictorinator this week - it puts forward some pretty clear cut winners in several games, but there are no value options with the way the week's games are priced up.
Should be interesting to see which of the teams who got surprise defeats handed to them last week (Buffalo and Dallas put in particularly flat efforts) manage to bounce straight back this week...
I'm a bit worried that Dallas could struggle to refind their motivation and mojo, given that they know they are almost certain to win their weak-as division with ease.
Should be interesting to see which of the teams who got surprise defeats handed to them last week (Buffalo and Dallas put in particularly flat efforts) manage to bounce straight back this week...
I'm a bit worried that Dallas could struggle to refind their motivation and mojo, given that they know they are almost certain to win their weak-as division with ease.
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Just a tiny follow-up predictor stats update. Obviously Week9 results (and Week8 a bit) have been fairly high on the crazy-o-meter, but there will always be results and weeks like that.
With 5 weeks data now in, the overall picture should be getting a bit more accurate and more reliable. Looking at all games with a predicted outcome, there have been 48 wins from 70 games (68.6% success, and +8.03% LSP). For the suggested value bets, the predictor has a 9 from 14 record (+54.01% LSP), and using the variable stakes it recommends on these, this gives 30pts staked with 54.89pts returned (+82.97%). In terms of the value bets, the number of selections is still a bit too low for drawing firm conclusions or being highly confident - a couple of good/bad results would have a big effect on the figures - but still quite promising overall. |
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How do you see Patriots v Browns?
I only bet outright on the Superbowl, Browns one of my biggest reds, green on Pats. I see a lot of pundits talking up New England now, but, though I could do with them winning, they still seem quite limited to me. |
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Miami D been awesome so far
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I'm really pleased for Miami. So far they have been hugely underperformed and just looked a mess - this could be a turning point for them.
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Miami 15-3 up. D on fire. Good lead
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Upset week continues.
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In terms of the Browns/Pats game tobermory, I have this as quite close. It's actually the only game where the predicted winner is potentially overpriced (but not enough given the margin to warrant a bet).
The predictor says Cleveland Browns 21-25 New England Patriots. I think it could go either way, but the Patriots have been really, really consistent over the last few weeks, and I'm happy to narrowly favour them with no money at stake! |
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Baltimore don't look like they'd score 12 points with another hour of play. Even if they manage to get back into this, Miami have a ton of positives here.
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Can NFL get any better. Game after game, just feckin amazing sport
 This is why we stay up so late  |
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Haha... agreed england. A lovely drive from the Ravens but that second roughing call was utter bollocks!
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Totally agree NV !!
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GSM !!
I could listen to Troy all day. See you Sunday for more fun and games.  |
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See you Sunday, england!
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Digging a bit deeper tobermory, Cleveland move the ball a lot and put a lot of yards on the stats but aren't great at converting these into points. They also concede more points than they should, given the yardage they limit their opponents to. They do ok overall because they tend to register a positive yardage differential, but they could be more clinical at both ends.
Conversely, New England ARE very efficient. They score a lot of points from an average level of offensive yards, and concede fewer points than you might expect given how many yards they allow their opponents to gain. On the face of it, they would appear to be a decent red zone team at both ends. The Browns are definitely seen as the sexier, more exciting team but the Patriots are showing that keeping things simple and making fewer mistakes can be just as effective. General perception seems to be that they aren't as good as some other teams with a similar record, although the odds this week (they are marginal favourites) indicate that bookies at least have realised they are probably a decent team... |
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Just in regard to opening post and as a Dallas follower...if they didn't get a serious bolli**** from the coaching staff after last week I'd be amazed..
may have already had costly implications for the post season and anymore slack games against lesser teams would seriously question their true credentials beyond division winners - I think they had some viable factors if not excuses last week...Dak just back from injury so maybe timing was off a little in the passing game and the win in Minnesota would have felt a big deal, massive emotional high in locker room etc followed by an expected easy home game..classic kind of let down game but inexcusable none the less. |
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They just looked underprepared and had no knuckle-down-grind-it-out plan B... was weird to watch, although the Broncos defense is pretty awesome. If Denver can consistently score a few more points than they have been doing for most of this year, they might not be far away come the end of regulation.
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Think the Titans are worth a bet at home against the Saints, the New Orleans offence we know is already missing Winston but Kamara is out for this game which is a massive loss. He basically is the New Orleans offence. Think they'll struggle immensely.
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as a titans fan and off 4 straight up wins as dog, the line vs saints is 'fishy' - kamara out will impact saints as much if not more as henry out, particularly as titans already won last week without the king, I've bet titans but half my usual stake...
in other games, line has moved too far for lions, steelers -5.5 surely bet of the day also like bucs off the bye but WFT also off bye week so could be closer than 9.5 at least in 1H good luck all |
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Small bet on the Broncos for me @1.95 to beat the Eagles.
GL with your bets !! |
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Washington unlucky not to get a 3rd pick there... if TB manage a touchdown here, that's a potential game-changer!
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Good luck england... and looking reasonable if you went against Tampa covering the spread Gordon !
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New England are on fire at the moment... Mac Jones not going for the spectacular but quietly putting together a really impressive rookie year...
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And Tampa Bay - defense particularly - are falling apart here... will need a big step up from the Brady bunch on offense to get them back here 2nd half...
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fkin disgusting flag in tennessee game
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haha fck off another flag
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ridiculous
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49ers could have stayed put in the draft and got Mac Jones instead of giving up 2 extra 1st rounders to take Trey Lance
 In fact, at first it was assumed that Mac Jones had to be who they wanted because he was the most NFL-ready and at the time they looked like just a QB short of being a contender |
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And Dallas are bouncing back just fine here, and some...
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49ers have bigger issues than just their QB, but yeah, crazy decision in hindsight!
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Jeez... Dallas have put on nearly 40pts, first half!
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The first flag on that Tennessee red zone drive was harsh wonder! It was a marginally late hit, but definitely not to the head...
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Great TD by the Lions' running back... wriggly and fast. Not sure why the Steelers defense is suddenly off the mark though?
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a pick reversed ended up going for a TD...robbery
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Tend to agree wonder but after the calls/non-calls that went against Chicago this week, nothing surprises me!!!
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was on the +7 as well NV...ml backers cheated on mnf
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atlanta having a fkin nightmare
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And another soft roughing call - this time for Cleveland...
Dallas could get 60+ here! |
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TD Washington - always got to love a scrumpy push!
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