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I've traded in and out the Browns. In before OBJ, and out after. On a free roll. Backed the Chiefs and can't let a season go by without falling for Green Bay. My main bets have been Mahomes most passing yards and most touchdowns along with Miami under 4.5 wins.
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likewise Lance re Browns unfortunately was going to have more on but the OBJ trade put paid to that.
Having said that I think the AFC North will prove very difficult to win having 3 very good teams (and Cincy will probably be better than the odds suggest) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Saints to make up for last year's terrible non call, Eagles to start firing with a fully fit Carson Wentz and at a price Baltimore, they don't have the depth of individual talent that some teams may have but impress as a collective unit and they could go well at big odds.
NFL pull out in the Racing Post today for anyone interested. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Atlanta Falcons @40
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Its back
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Chicago and Atlanta are my 2 main picks, though I'll probably back and lay every team.
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I'm going with Saints to do the job this season. Eagles may step up again for a saver bet
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The only backs I had so far are Baltimore (48) and Seattle (40) but I'm struggling to make much of a case for either now I come to think of it. Baltimore was mainly from the angle of 2nd season QB being open to improvement but Jackson doesn't fill me with much confidence overall and it could be a tough division. Seattle was mainly price vs strength of roster
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Patriots in from 8 to 6.2 with AB
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And 5.6 now after thrashing the Steelers without AB. I fear only injuries will stop them, will anyone really be surprised if they lure Gronk out of retirement midway through the season as well?
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What have we learned 4 weeks in?
For me I'm not convinced on New England, have essentially had 3 byes thus far and the Bills away who had the backup QB in the second half. The Chiefs clearly the team to beat in the AFC for mine, but I suppose all the Pats have to do at the moment is win, which they've done. Their second half of the season the schedule gets real. In the NFC, not a great deal to get excited about. New Orleans winning without Brees is big, be some nervous Nellys out there who laid big odds after week 2. Massive win for the Eagles on the road last week, 2-2 and could be 0-4 (or 4-0). Once they get healthy they'll be a tough out. For me the pre season betting looks spot on atm, Chiefs and Pats in AFC and Sanits/Eagles in NFC. Rams look to be stuck in gear, that Todd Gurley contract looks disastrous. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I tend to agree.
I'm happy to be red on the Patriots. Nine months ago the consensus was that they were in the death throes of the dynasty. Obviously that was premature, but since then they have lost Gronk and without much else added on personnel we had pundits saying they are stronger than ever and could go 16-0. I expect them to be 13-3 at best and performing at a level that will make them underdogs v the Chiefs. The Chiefs were my pick amongst the Top 6 contenders and they are as expected. My 2 biggest bets on Day 1 were Atlanta who are the biggest disappointment and I have redded out on, and Chicago who I am not sure what to make of, but still hopeful. The Rams look vulnerable but I still rate them better than Dallas or Philadelphia, who I don't think are any better than last year. Green Bay look quite poor despite their record. I think the 49ers, currently 3-0, will finish about 8-8 so I have them biggest red. The Saints I am not convinced about, but agree the high 20s odds for a couple of days after Week 3 were generous. Now perhaps an overreaction to them beating overhyped Dallas. The longshot I backed most before the start was Detroit and I'm happy with them. In the AFC I do think Baltimore were overrated based on beating 2 of the worst teams ever. Against stronger teams they never looked like winning. This past week I feel the Chargers have been best value. The Bills I expect will be like Miami last year; starting 3-0 but ended up 7-9 or so. Overall I think the majority of the teams with good starts have been flattered somewhat. With 5 terrible teams in the league that will win 0, 1 or 2 games each, there could be about 19 teams with winning records going into the last week, and very close races in most divisions, with some 10-6 teams missing the play offs. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This is my position currently. There a a dozen or so I try and keep green, or red for now, but I switch on a lot of them. Not an option for Arizona or Washington now
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turn the NOS green please tobes.
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AFC looks pats/chiefs & bar 2
NFC I haven't been that impressed by anybody & realistically 6-8 teams in that side have a live chance of making the superdish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Arizona are 2-3-1 of course.
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have you turned those Saints green yet tobes?
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Nah I am 237 red on them now.
They seem too short to be backing. I don't think Brees will be as amazing as expected, and I can back them when they lose a couple. 400 red on Patriots. That's fine too, can't see how they'd be shorter than 3.1 even if they were already in the conference final. Oakland or Detroit would be 6-0 with the Pats schedule. I went green on the 49ers and have hundreds green on most other contenders. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Wow someone just took everything on the Patriots down to 3.05 because Mahomes hurt his knee
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This is my position pre Week 11
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Ravens v Seahawks Superbowl for me.
In which case it is hats off to GoBallistic | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Before Week 14
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don't sleep on those Saints
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This is my position, factoring in settled bets.
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let's go those Saints!
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turn those saints red
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My position on outright
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The Saints and Patriots going out was bad for me. Don't want any more upsets this weekend (other than Ravens of course)
Basically wanting the Ravens to lose one of 3 games. Unless they get in a big hole and comeback after I green on them. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This is my position
Lost a lot of KC green laying them while 0-24. I thought they'd come back and was gonna back them, but I was expecting it to be a gradual thing. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Great Superbowl matchup we can be all be excited about. Fascinating tactically. The 49ers have been brilliant all season and had it all to do with their schedule in the second half of the season. Big wins away to the Saints and Seahawks and have been dominant in the post season. Can easily argue they are the best team in the NFL this year, but I agree with the Chiefs being faves. They stopped the run of the rampaging Henry (nice pre season call by yours truly in the opening post
) and if they can do the same against the 49ers and force he game to be an aerial battle they hold a clear edge. Bosa may be the most important man on the field in the Superbowl, brilliant rookie campaign, might need to do to Mahomes what Von Miller did to Cam Newton to get the 49ers over the line. Can't wait for it. |