***Clay's Week 17 NFL Best Bets***

Another year another huge profit. I'm too good to you guys.
Another great bowl season. Gee I love bowl season.
Tinged with sadness that the greatest offence in football is likely to miss the play offs and bang goes my huge odds for the steelers to win the super bowl.

I love week 17. People think it's too risky, I think there is tremendous value out there.

I have two very strong bets this week

MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE MASIVE BET ON THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3 AND SMALLER BET ON THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS SU.
Is there any evidence out there that the Packers are anything other than a bang average team? Since week 4 Aaron Rodgers is the most sacked QB in the league. Their offence line cannot protect him and his receivers can't get open.
They got smashed last week in the desert, did they go their and keep it close and put up a fight? No, they got absolutely battered. They struggled against Oakland the week before. They needed a Hail Mary miracle to beat Detroit on thanksgiving.
But but but but I hear you say "they beat the Vikings easily not so long ago".... They did but I think their are circumstances to explain that. The Vikings didn't wear the tag of favs well in that game and they buckled, they froze. They played poorly. They are better than that. Also they got beat easily by Seattle not long after that. But this team have learned from those two games.
Since then they have got the ball out of Bridgewater's hands much quicker and he has been excellent in recent weeks, this is a team that went to the desert and put up an almighty battle and were unlucky not to beat Arizona.
I like how this team have bounced back from two bad beatings. They learned. They actually match up really well against Green Bay.
I think they are a better team than the Packers and tonight they will prove it.

MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE BET ON DETROIT LIONS -1.5
The Lions are still playing tough and fighting. Their players like Jim Caldwell and have been in the press saying they want him back next season. They are playing for him.
The Lions have been unlucky this season. The debacle late on against Seattle and Green Bay have cost them dear. They have been much better since their new offensive coach came in and Stafford has stepped up to the plate.
Cutler is Cutler and will always be Cutler. He is not good enough. The Bears are sleepwalking towards another poor season. Yes they won last week but it's been another tepid season for them.
Plus their record at Soldier Field hasn't been great in recent seasons.
I like the Liions a lot here

MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE BET ON THE NEW YORK GIANTS -4
Coughlin's last game with the Giants and his home farewell. This will be emotional for the Giants and they will be motivated to bow out with a flourish. OBjnr is back from suspension.
The Eagles are a mess and I'm not sure the sacking of Chip Kelly will do any good. Also it's more beneficial for their draft pick to lose here and that's a big thing as they gave up a draft pick to get Bradford from the Rams.
The Eagles are all over the place.
Take the Giants to send Couglin off with a win.


MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE BET ON THE UNDER 46.5 in NEW ENDLAND V MIAMI MATCH.
This is being bet down from 48 but I think there is still huge value here.
Miami can't protect the run, they can't protect the pass, they are a shambles on offence.
The Pats are banged up and have been struggling. The Pats will want to secure the win and get in and out of Miami without too many hassles. I expect the Pats to be quite conservative in their play calling as well.
21-3 win for the Pats or similar IMHO .

MASSIVE BET ON THE OAKLAND RAIDERS +7
I'm not convinced the Chiefs are a stick on here. The Raiders are playing well. They have weapons to hurt teams, the Chiefs struggled against the Brownss last week. The Chiefs will probably have one eye on wildcard  weekend next week. I think the Raiders might win this SU.
Take the points.