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LondonLawman
06 Aug 14 10:35
Joined:
Date Joined: 29 Jul 03
| Topic/replies: 179 | Blogger: LondonLawman's blog
All comments welcome, lots of the high street firms are quoting prices already.

All prices below are with firms that also offer place terms.

3/1 Calvin Johnson looks a Great price if Josh Gordon's suspension is held up. Value for me is Julio Jones 10/1 and a big outsider Desean Jackson 50/1.

4/1 Adrian Peterson again looks Great price. Value for me Alfred Morris I see one firm goes 12/1 and a big outsider Toby Gerhart 66/1

Now for the hardest market of all.

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees 2/1 each, no thanks. My pick here is Aaron Rodgers at 8/1. Value Tom Brady 20/1 and a big outsider Nick Foles 50/1.

Have asked BF to put these markets up again. Wow cant wait for NFL to start up again.
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Report Lance in France August 6, 2014 1:34 PM BST
Hi LL

On the passing market Manning and Brees are 11/4 and 7/2 respectively with PP.  Rodgers is also biggest with them at 10/1.

I have backed the first 2 and covered on Rodgers. I think Drew is the one overpriced at 7/2 and bet accordingly. The market has been up and unchanged for about 3 weeks now.

Agree on AP although 4/1 is hard to get. 3/1 is the main price and I'm waiting to see if anyone puts up four places before betting ew.

Good luck.
Report eejit101 August 6, 2014 2:28 PM BST
Passing - I see no value in anyone aside from Brees/Rodgers. Brees @ 7/2 is a steal. Manning has less weapons this year, and Brees has more. I would go 10 units on Brees to win 35, and 5 on Rodgers to win 50. 20 unit profit minimum if either win.

Rushing - AP @ 4/1 is good. The issue is threefold though - passing style manager, injury worries, more WR weapons. Morris @ 12/1 is daft. If he gets it i will be super shocked. You go where the sense is, for pure rushing yards, McCoy/Charles/AP/Foster.

I would do an outside bet on Arian Foster this year. If he is healthy he can beast this.

Receiving - CJ has a bad knee again. Doesnt stop him much. I like Julio Jones here @ 10/1. For outside bets Jeremy Maclin, Deymarius Thomas and Julian Edelman get my vote.
Report LondonLawman August 8, 2014 1:09 PM BST
eejit101 I cant see how Morris at 12/1 is daft? Finished 4th last season and 2nd the season before with enough yds to have won it the following season. NFL Offence is a myriad of opinions. Morris was 50 carries short of the season before because Redskins O stank the place up. A healthy RG111 and a standout crop of WRs means I believe the Redskins O will stay on the field much longer, deeper drives, so more carries and less 8 man fronts! Obviously being a Redskins fan for 33 years I wear rose tinted spectacles but I think I put up some valid points.

Thing strength of schedule should also be taken into account especially for P Manning.
Report eejit101 August 8, 2014 2:33 PM BST
Being 4th is fine, but he totalled 1275 yards. His new offence is more pass happy, and RG3 is running again. Lets say they rush for a decent 2,500 as a team. Backups take 500 yards. WRs take 200 yards. RG3 gets say 700 yards. That leaves 1,100 yards for Morris. I just cant see a team with these options going ground heavy with no screens or QB designed runs. All leading rushers come from teams where the QB cant run.
Report LondonLawman August 8, 2014 3:02 PM BST
I don't see RG111 being allowed to run, he is the most valuable player in the league draft wise, hell did we pay 2 or 3 1st rnd picks to get him. He gets banged up again and the 1st year coach is in big trouble. Quick routes a few long bombs and maybe lots of dump offs to the flat. I see Vikings and Eagles as passing more this season. Have to admit I do like Foster as well. The beauty is we wont know for sure tell week 17 of the season.
Report eejit101 August 8, 2014 10:45 PM BST
Your issue with that is its a bit wrong. The coaches and at Training have implimented lots of new read option plays and designed runs. They are touting RG3 for 750+ rush yards. Its how they got to the post season, and its why they traded up for #1 pick.

No point in going for that kind of QB if he doesnt run with it. Everything at Wash OTAs and Preseason should point to more runs for RG3.

I do like Morris... but he wont get rushing title. Foster is my random bet.
Report Lance in France August 21, 2014 9:16 PM BST
Hills are priced up and go 4 places in the leading rusher market. AP is top priced 4/1 with them us well. Large ew bet placed.

Good luck with all your bets guys.
Report Zach_Thomas54 August 28, 2014 8:24 PM BST
Does anyone know if any of the firms will let you do doubles and trebles on these markets?
Report Lance in France August 29, 2014 12:56 PM BST
You will struggle to do that on line.   Maybe you can write out perms on a slip and place it in a shop?
Report MissSunacellli October 2, 2014 4:42 PM BST
Any firms voiding Adrian Peterson bets?
Report aiden obrien October 2, 2014 11:06 PM BST
be a big price miss methinks
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