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themightymac
24 Jan 14 23:51
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 35,029 | Blogger: themightymac's blog
One only please and bookie with best odds. Had some crackers over the years, including a 100/1 shot. Just over a week to go, so lets see who can dig out the best winning bet.
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Report db1974 January 25, 2014 4:32 PM GMT
Wheres the anthem bet - can't see anyone offering it at all

Plenty offering who wins the coin toss and other bullsh1t of course
Report HowieTheRookie. January 25, 2014 10:44 PM GMT
what was the 100-1
Report Kerrygold January 26, 2014 4:19 AM GMT
100/1 was prob no touchdown in 1st half  ? yrs back in SB it was priced up in a high scoring game
Report wallis January 26, 2014 1:00 PM GMT
No I think was the first score to be a safety or opening ko to be run back for a TD.
Report themightymac January 26, 2014 9:32 PM GMT
Spot on Wallis

SB XLVI

1st score of the game a NY Giants safety @ 100/1 or a Patriots safety @ 100/1 (2 separate bets)

Brady was called for intentional grounding and because he threw from his end zone the Giants were awarded a safety.

I admit that I was very lucky as Giants were in FG range previous drive until Manning got sacked on 3rd down and they punted to the 5yd line.
Report yodacricket January 26, 2014 9:34 PM GMT
What price is Eli Manning to throw over 2.5 interceptions from the stands. Il take -110. But seriously, think the weather is the biggest factor in this game. If its treacherous seattle win, if not Denver should be slight favourites. My bet would be a parlay on Denver to win at -110 and Montee Ball to fumble and break the lombardi trophy at -500.
Report Kerrygold January 26, 2014 10:54 PM GMT
should have been closer to 1000/1 that , read about someone had 500 at 100/1 on it alright in lv.
Report TheVis January 26, 2014 11:51 PM GMT
and as you bet both sides it was actually a 50/1 winner
Report db1974 January 27, 2014 11:18 AM GMT
Well dutching both outcomes is a 50/1 winner (49.5/1 to be exact) but technically it was a 100/1 winner and a 100/1 loser
Report The_Silent_Assassin January 29, 2014 12:08 PM GMT
Not the biggest price in the world but I like the "how many times will manning say Omaha" market. Between 30-40 times is 9/4 with B-W1n.

He said it 31 times from 61 snaps against New England and 44 times from 80 snaps against San Diego so calls it on average 0.529 times for every snap.

Seattle have allowed their opponents on average 61 snaps during the regular season and post season and the Denver offence averaged 72 snaps in the regular season and 70.5 in the post season.

Reckon he will call it about 33/34 times this game so willing to take a shot at the 9/4
Report wallis January 29, 2014 1:20 PM GMT
Does this depend on being able to hear it on the TV broadcast. Could get messy trying to convince firms you heard it.  I had a similar bet on the Ryder Cup a few years ago when they were betting on what would be the first chant heard after the opening tee off. I went for "USA USA" and firms voided it saying there was too much other stuff shouted and it wasnt clear enough. Beethoven could have heard it !
Report wallis January 29, 2014 1:23 PM GMT
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/super/2014/01/28/peyton-manning-sup...
Report Lance in France January 29, 2014 1:39 PM GMT
The National Anthem spread is a very high 2 minutes 22 seconds. That's because there is an opera singer performing it and she is being accompanied by an orchestra. Renee Fleming has performed the anthem before at the start of the 2003 World Series but that's all I have managed to research. I have no idea of the time she took or if she had backing music.
Report wallis January 29, 2014 1:49 PM GMT
I cant find anything either Lance. All I could come up with is that she fluffed the lyrics in 2003 and had to ad lib it !  Its Aguillera all over again !
Report The_Silent_Assassin January 29, 2014 2:34 PM GMT
yeah I was trying to look into the anthem one also, 2 minutes 22 does seem high
Report db1974 January 29, 2014 9:27 PM GMT
Last year was a record at 2:36.4 so 2:22 does look high

Found a site 2 days ago which listed the times of the last 10 anthems and now I can't find the bloody thing - I'll have a look tomorrow in work and  post them up

2m is usually the standard though so you'd have to back Unders on anything over 2:15 IMO
Report Lance in France January 29, 2014 10:37 PM GMT
I agree db1974, but you also have to factor in the orchestra. They may do an "intro" before she starts her first note. Will that count towards the time? Also I read a review of when she did the top ten list on Letterman in opera style and made it last a lot longer than it should have. These operatic types have a habit of holding a very long note! 

The head says go low, but the heart always wants to be a buyer!
Report db1974 January 30, 2014 10:07 AM GMT
Yeah it's a difficult one alright

Found the list anyway - gives the times for the last 8 Superbowls

Super Bowl 40 - Aaron Neville & Aretha Franklin 2:08
Super Bowl 41 - Billy Joel 1:30
Super Bowl 42 – Jordin Sparks 1:54
Super Bowl 43 – Jennifer Hudson 2:10
Super Bowl 44 – Carrie Underwood 1:47
Super Bowl 45 – Christina Aguilera 1:54
Super Bowl 46 – Kelly Clarkson 1:34
Super Bowl 47 - Alicia Keys 2:35

http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/super-bowl-national-anthem-prop-odds

I still think that Under looks good
Report db1974 January 30, 2014 10:09 AM GMT
Unders now 4/6 with Paddy - Overs now 11/10
Report Notsofastmyfriend January 30, 2014 6:20 PM GMT
9/4 They will be a 2pt attempt, i think a 2pt conversion has been tried in 4 of the last 5 bowls.
Report Mooono January 30, 2014 8:31 PM GMT
Bruno Mars half time headwear, french knickers 999/1 thanks Laugh
Report themightymac January 31, 2014 9:21 PM GMT
Found one @ 33/1, way over priced. Problem is getting money on. Only got one tenth of stake on due to restrictions. Using runners to get rest on, even at shorter price if needed. Obviously can`t divulge bet until I get my own money on but will post it Saturday evening. Not saying that it will definitely pull but odds are way off the mark and value bet of the century. Can`t use other bookies as none are quoting the "special". Grin
Report themightymac February 2, 2014 2:23 AM GMT
The "special" bet I have found is an INTERCEPTION RETURNED FOR A TD by any team. Managed to get some of the opening 33/1 but was restricted and have bet at lower prices too. PP is the only bookie offering this bet and sadly they have cut odds to 20/1 which is still currently available. It still remains a value bet at the price and will give one an interest for the whole match.

Best odds for any defensive TD is only 2/1 (Spreadex) and as low as 11/10 (SJ) so taking overall stats for Defensive TDs the past 6 years into consideration this market is priced completely wrong imo. If there is a Defensive TD scored, which I hope there is, it is a 69.82% chance that it will be an Interception returned for a TD rather than a fumble.

DEFENSIVE TDS SCORED
2013       96 (65 INT TDs and 31 FUMBLE TDs)
2012       92 (71 INT TDs and 21 FUMBLE TDs)
2011       37 (24 INT TDs and 13 FUMBLE TDs)
2010       76 (57 INT TDs and 19 FUMBLE TDs)
2009       73 (48 INT TDs and 25 FUMBLE TDs)
2008       80 (52 INT TDs and 28 FUMBLE TDs)

TOTALS    454 (317 INT TDs and 137 FUMBLE TDs)

Peyton will be throwing a lot of quick slants and this could prove a dangerous avenue against the top Seattle defence. On the other side, Wilson has no SB experience and is very likely to make the odd mistake, hopefully it will be a big one.

Enjoy the match everyone and good luck with all your bets. HappyCrazy
Report themightymac February 2, 2014 3:56 PM GMT
Price has disintegrated and is only 10/1 now. To anybody who has had a small dabble on this, I hope you got the 20/1. It will give you an interest for the whole match and a nice return for relatively small stakes if successful. Mind you, I hope our interest in the bet is over early and we collect the cash, lol. At the price it is a very good value and we have a sporting chance of collecting. Bon chance!!
Report stewardsenquirey February 2, 2014 5:09 PM GMT
Which firm had that priced up at 33/1 MightyMac ?
Report stewardsenquirey February 2, 2014 5:10 PM GMT
Good spot by you at those prices.
Report themightymac February 2, 2014 5:51 PM GMT
PP mate. They also made another big boob initially pricing Manning to throw an interception @ 6/4. Bet restrictions of course, but 4/7 now. Enjoy the game! Happy
Report Lance in France February 2, 2014 11:26 PM GMT
Even allowing for the intro counting, length was well under 2 mins 22. I made it 2 mins 15 seconds using the same stop watch I used at White City and Harringay dog tracks in the 80's!  Well done those who went low.
Report Tucho February 2, 2014 11:36 PM GMT
haha another 100/1 safety, did you get it mightymac?
Report Lance in France February 3, 2014 12:39 AM GMT
Themightymac........   I WANNA HAVE YOUR BABIES!!!!!!   Well played Sir
Report Hank Hill February 3, 2014 12:39 AM GMT
Top bombing mac
Report nicky27 February 3, 2014 12:40 AM GMT
well played mac , good call Cool
Report KIMBLE February 3, 2014 12:40 AM GMT
legend
Report nicky27 February 3, 2014 12:40 AM GMT
bbbooooooooommmmmm for you
Report Mooono February 3, 2014 12:40 AM GMT
good call
Report stewardsenquirey February 3, 2014 12:40 AM GMT
Well done Mightymac,great call(I never had any on Cry)
Report Bergkamp93 February 3, 2014 12:44 AM GMT
WP MightyMac ...Quailty tipping ...Much you get on all together ?GrinCool
Report TerryHurlock February 3, 2014 12:46 AM GMT
top bombing mac...hotdawgs are on you
Report Roger De Bris February 3, 2014 12:55 AM GMT
wd themightymac, great call.
Report punkha1 February 3, 2014 1:14 AM GMT
Well done Mac I had a wee bet at the 10s which I thought still looked big the 33s was insane.
Thanks again I wouldn't have spotted it without you flagging it up hope you made plenty.
Report Red Lorry Yella Lol February 3, 2014 1:17 AM GMT
great spot mightymac. It was a crazy price, especially  with Seahawks fondness for interceptions Happy Couldn't follow you as the bookies that take my money weren't offering a decent price
Report nicky27 February 3, 2014 2:28 AM GMT
hope you get paid and they dont try to palp it , should be ok though , report back here that u got paid ok , well played
Report wallis February 3, 2014 3:01 AM GMT
Gatorade Shower -   Orange.
Report wallis February 3, 2014 3:05 AM GMT
Will Russell thank anyone ??
Report alfee February 3, 2014 3:41 AM GMT
the mighty mac, great horse, great tipster !
Report TheVis February 3, 2014 11:00 AM GMT
Tipping effort of the year right there and we're only in Feb Laugh
Report TheVis February 3, 2014 11:03 AM GMT
PS How was the Omaha bet settled?  Don't think I was able to hear one all evening.
Report themightymac February 3, 2014 2:50 PM GMT
Thanks guys for the gracious comments. More importantly, I`m more pleased that some of you bet it and hopefully some of you got the 20/1. 33/1 didn`t last long but managed to get some of it Grin and rest at 20/1. I sincerely hope that it was forum money that cut the price from 20/1 to 10/1 in a matter of hours following my post.

They price far too many markets up on SB and if you look close enough, you will always find something that is wrongly priced. Even the 10/1 some of you got, punkha and reg for example, was still great value. It was only 2/1 best price for a Defensive TD and it can only be an Interception or Fumble return, and the stats favoured Interception out of the two, so this was the value bet of the century, even if it had lost.

Wish stewardsenquiry and others who missed it had stuck something on, that would have made it even a better night. Sad

Great to hear that reg played up the winnings and had an even better profitable night. Happy

nicky27, I was worried it was a palp error too mate and should have been 3/1 and the typist had hit the 3 on the keyboard twice in error, lol. I was relieved to see them cutting the price to 20/1 then 10/1 which confirmed that it was just a major boob on the prices. All bets paid out mate, thanks Happy

Thanks chaps, glad you won, but an even bigger thanks for the gracious comments from the posters who didn`t even bet it but still took the time to acknowledge the bet. Wink

Good luck everybody!
Report Lufc86 February 3, 2014 3:23 PM GMT
Quality thread, Unlike another one on this forum haha

Well done themighymac ;)
Report themightymac February 3, 2014 4:40 PM GMT
Thanks Lufc86, I appreciate it!
Report HowieTheRookie. February 4, 2014 12:01 AM GMT
Great tip, well done on spotting that - couldn't have happened to a better bookie :) glad they didn't try to palp it.
Report themightymac February 4, 2014 12:08 AM GMT
Thanks howie, hope you enjoyed the SB bash Wink
Report Tucho February 4, 2014 1:00 AM GMT
PS How was the Omaha bet settled?  Don't think I was able to hear one all evening.

Some US books paid out on the under because nobody heard it on tv. Some just voided the market.

Bit of a dud in the end, it was far too loud to hear him say anything. I'm sure he wasn't in complete silence for 3 hours so nobody has any idea whether he was actually saying it or not.
Report TheVis February 4, 2014 2:56 PM GMT
OK, thanks for the update.  Anybody who was on the over must have had a horrible heart sinking moment the minute play started at it was obvious the crowd noise was drowning out anything the QB was saying.
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