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ClayDavis
14 Jan 14 11:19
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 8,456 | Blogger: ClayDavis's blog
I'll go first

Denver -2.5 v Seattle
Denver PK 49ers PK

49ers -3 v Pats

Seattle -2.5 v Pats
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Report db1974 January 14, 2014 12:30 PM GMT
I would expect Seattle to be the favs no matter who they play

Can't see anything other than a 3pt spread in any matchup expect 49ers @ Broncos which I reckon would be a Pickem or maybe a slight favouritism for 49ers, as their price is only bigger than the Broncos because they are not expected to beat the Seahawks in Seattle. If they do win that game then they could well start favs over the Broncos but again it won't be by more than 3 points.



SEA -3.0 @ DEN
SEA -3.0 @ NE
SF PK @ DEN PK
SF -3.0 @ NE
Report ClayDavis January 14, 2014 12:50 PM GMT
Vegas doesn't rate Seattle out of Seattle the same. If they were playing the 49ers in San Francisco this weekend the spread would be flipped. or if they were playing in a neutral venue this weekend it would be a pick em (at best) or narrowly in the 49ers; favour.
No way on earth will the Seahawks be 3pt favs over the broncos in New York. No way at all
Report Swardean January 14, 2014 1:01 PM GMT
The outright market MANDATES that seattle would be favourite no matter who they played in the final (notwithstanding the possibility of injuries in the championship game).  Seattle are overall favourites at the moment, despite having a tougher semi-final than denver.
Report Swardean January 14, 2014 1:11 PM GMT
Current outrights: Seattle 7/4; Denver 2/1

Current championship prices: Seattle 8/15 Denver 4/9

Therefore to justify these prices, in the final you would expect:  Seattle 8/11 v Denver 11/10

So a spread of Seattle -1.5 to -2 is likely
Report Si-K January 14, 2014 2:42 PM GMT
New Eng -2 @ Sea
Report db1974 January 14, 2014 4:18 PM GMT
Bovada has released lines for each possible Superbowl outcome

SEA to bt DEN 3/1
DEN to bt SEA 7/2
SEA to bt NE 11/2
DEN to bt SF 11/2
SF to bt DEN 6/1
SF to bt NE 15/2
NE to bt SEA 9/1
NE to bt SF 10/1

which would imply that both 49ers & Seahawks would be favourites to beat both the AFC teams
Report db1974 January 14, 2014 4:19 PM GMT
http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/football-futures.jsp
Report HowieTheRookie. January 14, 2014 11:03 PM GMT
I like the 15/2 SF to bt NE, is that available anywhere in the UK?
Report Lix January 15, 2014 12:24 AM GMT
for that to happen you can simply roll up an acca no? Confused

  Pats to beat Denver at 2.9
x SF to beat Seattle  at 2.66

= 7.7 ish minus commission. then you back SF in the SB af 1.7 ish vs Pats for a payout of well over 10/1
Basically, 15/2 is a duff price. I'll lay you 8/1 if you like.. ? Grin
Report kingkauto January 15, 2014 12:39 AM GMT
Is that the same principle as what was on another thread?
Like SF were 9/1 a few weeks ago to win outright but instead of doing that back them with you stake to win the first playoff match and roll your winnings onto each subsequent match so by the time they collect the superbowl you have more than 9/1 for your stake...
Report Lix January 15, 2014 12:48 AM GMT
yep.
Report HowieTheRookie. January 15, 2014 8:07 AM GMT
49ers at 1.7 against the Pats would be a gift from the gods :)
Report Anywherebutcheltenham January 16, 2014 3:01 AM GMT
Some lines posted already at: http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/nfl
Seahawks vs. Broncos: Seahawks -1
49ers vs. Broncos: 49ers -1.5
Seahawks vs. Patriots: Seahawks -4
49ers vs. Patriots: 49ers -3.5
Report ClayDavis January 20, 2014 10:13 AM GMT
Denver have opened up favs, as I thought
Report vol n. oven January 20, 2014 4:19 PM GMT
20 mins after the 'real' superbowl majority of bookies on oddsmaker were going around 9/10 seattle, evens denver....denver taking the bulk of the bets however
Report Knight Rider January 21, 2014 8:55 PM GMT
Yes the Seahawks actually opened as favs, Clay.  Action on Denver since.
Report Swardean January 22, 2014 8:33 AM GMT
Denver and manning are the new 'americas team'. They have huge public support against the 'dirty' seahawks.
This has resulted in an overbet denver and settle great value. +3 is a gift from the gods
Report vol n. oven January 22, 2014 3:12 PM GMT
i was expecting 7/10 seattle, shows what i know.seattle's price must come down
Report ClayDavis January 22, 2014 3:26 PM GMT
but but but but if the '12th man' means as much as you guys, and the pundits/media, say it does then surely you can understand the prices for this game in New York? Or are u now admitting the '12th man' has no effect whatsoever Silly
Report vol n. oven January 22, 2014 3:57 PM GMT
but the twelth man is travelling to new york, over 10,000 megaphones bought in the seattle area in the last 3 days
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