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ClayDavis
12 Jan 14 13:47
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 8,456 | Blogger: ClayDavis's blog
Firstly, what narrow minded, sad individual continues to read and comment on someone's thread when they say things like they don't what to read my drivel and they are bored with it? Who does such a thing? What cretinous human being doesn't have the intelligence to think "I will simply not read it". Must be someone who drags their knuckles along the ground. Can be the only conclusion. If I, or anyone else with a brain cell for that matter, thought someone wrote drivel and were bored of them and constantly felt the urge to write nasty comments about them, I would simply not read their threads. It's amazing isn't it? Anyway, I can't legislate for neanderthals. Still Standing is clearly one.

Let's get down to the more important issues of the battle in Charlotte. This has been a titanic betting heat from the word go. The 49ers opened 2.5 favs before being a pick em and then back to 2.5 favs before a pick em before Carolina being favs. Now it's back to being a pick em (although the 49ers are slight favs on here).
I priced this game up as the 49ers a field goal favs so the fact it's a pick em means I have to act. I stated on another thread how much I fancy the 49ers to win the Super Bowl and I haven't changed my mind one iota. I could go down with the sinking ship today but there are numerous reasons why I think they will get the job done in Charlotte today.
I was more worried about winning in Green Bay last week than I am about winning in Charlotte this week. The freezing conditions and Aaron Rogers made last week's encounter for more unpredictable than it should have been. But I thought the 49ers deserve enormous credit for coming through that game. And once again they showed that they will not wilt. They will not be found wanting. If someone beats them it will be because they are better than them - the 49ers will not give an inch.
There are plenty on here who fancy the Carolina Panthers. They point to their encounter earlier in the season when Carolina went to Candlestick Park and won a bruising encounter 10-9. They also point to Carolina's excellent defense and Carolina's excellent home form. All very valid points. And they may well be proved right. But let's take them one by one.
Te 49ers were missing Michael Crabtree and Aldon Smith in the meeting between the two earlier in the season. Two huge components of this side. Also, Veron Smith was taken out of the game after one play with concussion. So Kaepernick had two huge weapons unavailable to him. The 49ers started the game as 6pt favs in Vegas. They were leading 9-0 (many people forget this) before Carolina scored a TD and a field goal to win the game. Kaeprnick had a poor game, completing 11 of 22.
But the 49ers are a different animal now. Crabtree and Davis are now firing on all cylinders. Kapernick is playing much better.
I like Carolina's front seven. They are up there with the best in the league. But the two games against New orleans and the game against New England proved their weakness. Brees and the Saints consistently had tight ends and receivers running routes just behind their linebackers and the Panthers had a no clue how to stop this. In fact it got so bad in the Super Done (where the 49ers lost narrowly despite missing vital players) that the Saints looked as if they could score at will against the Panthers. The Panthers D were out on their feet. They had no answer. Only a torrential rain storm in the return game against the Saints in Charlotte prevented a similar outcome. But even then they struggled with the Saints' across field routes. It took a brilliant last gasp drive for the Panthers to prevail against the Saints. The same happened against the Patriots earlier in the season. When Brady went up tempo, the Panthers couldn't stop the routes behind their linebackers.
Moving on to their home form and it is impressive. But I genuinely believe they got lucky against the Patriots and the Saints at home. And I believe the 49ers are better teams than either of those two.
I'm a huge fan of Cam Newton. I think he is outstanding. And  he is a far better pocket passer than people give him credit for. He is a huge threat to the 49ers today. But he doesn't have that many weapons on offense available to him. Greg Olsen is good with short routes (the 49ers will stop that), Ted Gynn can stretch the field but is inconsistent while Stevie Smith (is excellent) is just returning from a knee injury and no one knows if he will be 100% fit of not. The Saints collapsed the pocket against the Panthers and got to Newton time and time again. The Panthers offensive line, although improved, is still vulnerable. The 49ers will be very confident of making Newton throw the ball quicker than he wants.
The Panthers have a very good running game but the 49ers are very good against the run. They will be confident of stopping it, forcing Newton to beat them through the air. The 49ers are vulnerable to the deep ball - but who is the deep ball threat for the Panthers? Only really Ted Gynn.
Let's move on to Kaepernick. I have a love/hate relationship with him. I don't think he is a very good pocket passer and his clock management is a disgrace. But last week we saw the Kaepernick of last season when he was a massive duel threat. He is an excellent runner and a massive threat when he takes off. And while the Panthers might very well shut down that avenue, the very threat of it opens up better passing lanes for him. And also Kaepernick is a gutsy so-and-so and he is extremely tough. IN short sleeves in the frozen tundra of Green Bay, he was showing he world that it didn't bother him. I like that in him.
I'm a huge fan a Frank Gore. And in Crabtree (outstanding), Bouldin (superb) and Davis (very good), the 49ers are explosive and dependable play makers at wide receiver.
Also, it's important to mention kick Phil Dawson. He is excellent and a huge asset to the 49ers.
To sum up, both teams have very good defenses and it's hard to split them from that perspective. But the 49ers have a more explosive offense and that will be the difference, I believe.
This is a very different team to the one that lost earlier in the season. They are on a roll. They are red hot. They have beaten Seattle and won in Arizona and Green bay recently. They are on fire. They have won on the road in the play offs before. The Panthers showed signs towards the end of the regular season that they were slightly stumbling. Have they peaked too soon?
All in all the 49ers rate an outstanding bet for me.
MASSIVE BET ON THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (moneyline) at 10-11

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Replies: 26
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 12 Jan 14 13:59
Firstly, what narrow minded, sad individual continues to read and comment on someone's thread when they say things like they don't what to read my drivel and they are bored with it? Who does such a thing? What cretinous human being doesn't have the intelligence to think "I will simply not read it". Must be someone who drags their knuckles along the ground. Can be the only conclusion. If I, or anyone else with a brain cell for that matter, thought someone wrote drivel and were bored of them and constantly felt the urge to write nasty comments about them, I would simply not read their threads. It's amazing isn't it? Anyway, I can't legislate for neanderthals. Still Standing is clearly one.



....You can't be as bombastic as you are and not be challenged on the opinions you post. Stop being a drama queen. Your 'approach' of always picking against teams (and players) for no other real reason that you hate them is always going to attract criticism. You need to stop giving it the big 'un all the time, or grow a thicker skin.


Happy
By:
Still standing
When: 12 Jan 14 15:26
Great intro Clay.  I've mentioned several times before why I oppose you so much, but you incomprehensive, closed, little mind seems to ignore it.

I'm only here because this forum has people frequenting it  who may know much about NA football.  They see someone who writes countless words, and think, hey, there's someone who knows all about the sport, I'll follow him.

In reality, you have been shown time and again that your lack of knowledge and bias towards certain teams and players is laughable, as well as potentially harmful to these lurkers.  There are many people here who these people would be better of following, people who actually know the sport.  ClayDavis is not one of them.  Just rehashing stuff you read off of websites and writing a thousand word reason why you're betting a certain team may look good to the unknowing, but those of us who might know a thing or two ( yes, hate to brag, but I'm one of them ) Know how shallow and hollow your words are.

Do you think Carolina and Newton have a game plan today Clay ?
Do you really think NO had nothing to lose last night ?

I really don't care what you or anyone else bets, except the newbies.  Really, if you like SF, I don't care.  It's just your off putting reasoning.  Basically, you're full of crap, and nly your opinion matters.  I meant what I said on another thread about picking 6 games a week for 17 weeks against the handicap.  I didn't mean I really have a poo flinging monkey, but I'll flip a coin 102 times, and my picks will be the same or better then yours, minus the BS.

I'm not going anywhere Clay while you and your crap are still present.  You ask why would I be here when I don't like your drivel, let me ask why are you still here when you've been laughed of the soccer forum, and the laughs are getting louder here.  If you admit you're just writing for a laugh and not for potential information, and mean it, I'll leave.

Clay has priced SF up at minus 3.  Great.
If you know anything about how the line is made, my opinion only, it's obvious that the real line should be Carolina minus 3.

I'd  explain why, but you don't want to learn anything, so keep on making those bets Clay.

That's still not a bet on Carolina because there isn't enough mistake room.  Good luck with your SF bet Clay.  You need a win so you can come back here and crow about it.
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Jan 14 15:49
I can't really disagree with much of what clay says. Panthers will want to make kaep win it through the air. They play the read of fence better than anyone and if they can stuff gore, it is up to Colin to prove he can win with his passing.

I am invested on panthers already but couldn't have a bet in this. Just too close to call. Let's hope for a cracker. GL all
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 12 Jan 14 16:15
did they not have paragraphs in your school? ffs...Cry

my eyes are bleeding.
By:
startedOct2000stillgoingstrong
When: 12 Jan 14 16:20
This match is a pick em for a reason. No bet. That all I need to say.
By:
themightymac
When: 12 Jan 14 16:45
I think the bookies have got this one wrong. Both teams are evenly matched defensively but imo 49ers have more offensive weapons. Panthers rely on Newton far too much and at times he tries to beat the opposition all on his own and is more likely to turn the ball over by making wrong decisions at crucial moments. It`s all about opinions and it wouldn`t be the first time I`m wrong, but I`m all over San Francisco like a rash. Should be a cracking game.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 12 Jan 14 16:50
I like SF +7.5pts 1/3.
By:
Still standing
When: 12 Jan 14 17:08

Jan 12, 2014 -- 4:45PM, themightymac wrote:


I think the bookies have got this one wrong. Both teams are evenly matched defensively but imo 49ers have more offensive weapons. Panthers rely on Newton far too much and at times he tries to beat the opposition all on his own and is more likely to turn the ball over by making wrong decisions at crucial moments. It`s all about opinions and it wouldn`t be the first time I`m wrong, but I`m all over San Francisco like a rash. Should be a cracking game.


but I`m all over San Francisco like a rash

Clay has had a couple of recent rashes.  He must have some ointment for it.  Maybe you can rub it all over each other.

Love

By:
tommo0001
When: 12 Jan 14 17:39
this is kaepernicks day,with gore,crabtree and bouldin as his elves I can`t look past the 49ers,forget about the panthers win in s.f the 49ers went to green bay in freezing conditions and kept the pass happy packers fairly quiet,i don`t think Carolina have as many offensive weapons as green bay and the 49ers have offense in abundance
By:
nugget
When: 12 Jan 14 20:54
excellent call on this game claydavis
I thought the 49ers were well overs too
By:
nugget
When: 12 Jan 14 20:56
StillStanding always seems too concerned with other peoples tips..

and brings nothing usefull to the table,  again
By:
themightymac
When: 12 Jan 14 21:05
Funny, but I don`t even feel itchy now with the rash buddy, but it`s not ointment I`m rubbing over it mate, it`s crispy £100 notes, lol.
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Jan 14 21:06
WD clay, 39ers professional and inexperience told for panthers,   sets up a classic next week and Im sure I know who you will be vacking
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Jan 14 21:06
*backing
By:
ClayDavis
When: 12 Jan 14 21:10
Swardean - in all seriousness I think they 49ers are the form team in the league right now and will probably offer value. i wasn't impressed with the Seahawks last night. Win, lose or draw it's going to be the mother of all battles.
Arizona, Green Bay and Carolina......that is an impressive haul
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Jan 14 21:24
a very impressive haul on the road, but none anywhere as near as impressive as a win a Quest Field (I still back it that!).   Its the game everyone wants to see.  Cant wait win or lose
By:
themightymac
When: 12 Jan 14 21:29
Will be a great game. Like football should be played. Two top defenses, two great teams, future Hall Of Famers in both teams and two head coaches who hate each others guts !
By:
Still standing
When: 12 Jan 14 21:35
Drop us a free money tip nugget.  You and Clay can team up.  Double up the laughter.

Nice haul MMac. Money, especially money won, has a way of soothing what ails you. SF showed who was the boss tonight. Go San D
By:
nugget
When: 12 Jan 14 21:53
Im still counting it after new england yesterday StillStan
By:
nugget
When: 12 Jan 14 21:55
if you didnt think 49ers were value in this game
you shouldnt be writing big as.s posts on the nfl
By:
Autocue
When: 18 Jan 14 17:32
Come on 49ers, shut the Seahaks up.
By:
startedOct2000stillgoingstrong
When: 18 Jan 14 20:08
A few reasons to back the Seahawks. Someone else can provide the 49ers list.

-  Seahawks have won 16 of their past 17 at home
- Seahawks won eight of nine this year at home
- Allowed opponents only 13.1 points per game here
- Last 2 seasons 49ers beaten combined 71-16 here
- 49ers last visit here 29-3
- 49ers won the last 2 encounters at Candlestick but by a combined measly 9 points.
- Seahawks awesome run defence has surrendered only 78 yards per game over the past five weeks.
- Seahawks have top defence overall - No. 1 in total yards per game, opponents’ passing yards per game and points allowed per contest. Awesome indeed.
- 49ers fourth road game in a row - tiring
- Seahawks 2 games in 3 weeks - both at home.
- In the past four years of conference championship games, the teams that won on Saturday in the divisional round are 7-1 against the teams that won on Sunday.
- 12th man will be amped up more than ever, knowing a win here earns its team a trip  to the Superbowl. The 49ers (esp Kap) have got rattled in easier situations.
- Last time in Seattle, 49ers turned the ball over five times and accounted for just 207 yards
- Seahawks held Drew Brees to 34 first-half passing yards, they can do the same to Kaepernick.
-  Hauschka - 33 of 35 during the regular season and all three attempts last week. He alone could be the difference.
- Wilson has been unspectacular recently and is very keen to put that right when it matters most.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 19 Jan 14 00:36
Nice try - "The Seahawks awesome run defence" - well they are 7th against the run this season (the 49ers are 4th against the run) and the Saints rushed for over 100 yards against them last week despite abandoning the run game for most of the 2nd half as they were behind. Both Robinson and Ingram average over 4 yards per carry.
I think u will find that even Seahawks fans think they are 'iffy' against top class running backs. I will remind you of Frank Gore's winning TD against the Seahawks a few weeks back
By:
startedOct2000stillgoingstrong
When: 19 Jan 14 01:19
I think you will find the 49ers won by the skin of their teeth with a field goal with 26 seconds to go. . Gore didnt score a TD.  Im confused.


Im not saying the Seahawks are sure things by any means. This game will finally show who they really are one way or the other.  If they have worked some magic on their offence it could be painful for the 49ers and thats what Im hoping for.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 19 Jan 14 01:52
I beg your pardon, it was Gore's long run that set up the field goal. Apologies
By:
startedOct2000stillgoingstrong
When: 19 Jan 14 18:15
hers another one

Seattle has allowed just one 49er touchdown in three of the past four games between the teams and just a field goal in the 29-3 Seahawks win in Sept.

Thats impressive.
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