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Wallflower
05 Jan 14 15:22
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Date Joined: 01 Nov 04
| Topic/replies: 8,148 | Blogger: Wallflower's blog
Cincinnati are biggest favourite of the weekend at 1.4.

Seems good value and probably only as high as that because of doubts about Andy Dalton, poor play-off record and the long-standing unpredictability of the Chargers.

Thing is, Dalton is better than his critics imply, I could be wrong but I think Bengals recent play-off matches were on the road (they are at least an experienced play-off team).

Many watching here to assess if the Bengals would be good enough to beat the Patriots in Foxboro' - I think they can, been long of the view that the Patriots just cannot keep handling all the injuries.

Expect the market to be in love with Bengals - so depending on how it goes, may go large-ish (for me) earlier than normal - then the usual drill - siphon excesss if Chargers go sub 1.17 or so ridiculously early - and the old prevent defense converts that into increased returnsHappy.

two great matches so far, lets hope for another good one.

As always, good luck all.

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Replies: 322
By:
Buell Mule
When: 05 Jan 14 15:56
Small stake on the Chargers for me, hope to trade out. Last night taught me anything can happen! Good Luck All.
By:
Buell Mule
When: 05 Jan 14 15:57
That said I'm on the Bengals or 49ers to win the Super Bowl outright.
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 05 Jan 14 16:06
Tough game to call imo, on one hand you have the Bengals who haven't lost at home yet playing a team they already beat on the road. But the Bengals beat the Bronco's away after losing at home too them, Then there is Andy Dalton a good qb imo, but so far in 2 play off games he has thrown 4 INT's with no TD's. Two games isn't enough to judge him but my worry would be if he messes up early would he have the resiliency to come back. He will have a chance against the 3rd worst pass defense.  I wont be betting on this one, I like the Bengals too win but I hate the odds.
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 05 Jan 14 16:07
I know if I don't like the 1.4 odds to back then I should Lay it but I am going too just watch this one
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 05 Jan 14 16:07

Jan 5, 2014 -- 4:06PM, TexassportsagentBuzz wrote:


Tough game to call imo, on one hand you have the Bengals who haven't lost at home yet playing a team they already beat on the road. But the Bengals beat the Bronco's away after losing at home too them, Then there is Andy Dalton a good qb imo, but so far in 2 play off games he has thrown 4 INT's with no TD's. Two games isn't enough to judge him but my worry would be if he messes up early would he have the resiliency to come back. He will have a chance against the 3rd worst pass defense.

By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 05 Jan 14 16:08
Chargers beat Bronco's in Mile high after losing at home too them#
By:
padlock
When: 05 Jan 14 16:27
took pp 6/4 on cincinnati and sf 49 ers tonight?
By:
tommo0001
When: 05 Jan 14 16:50
the weather will play a big part tonight
rain forecast in cincinatti,which surely won`t help the chargers
-18 in green bay at kick off time,packers used to freezing weather though not sure that it will effect the 49`ers that much
By:
ClayDavis
When: 05 Jan 14 16:58
how will it help the Packers more than the Niners? both teams have a very good run game, difference is the Niners are very good against the run whereas the Packers are awful against the run. Kaepernick himself has shredded the Packers time and time again with his legs. The only chance the Packers have is through the air and not convinced in these conditions. Niners game is actually suited to games like this
By:
ClayDavis
When: 05 Jan 14 16:58
Sorry, read your post wrong. I realise now that u said you don't tink it think effect the Niners that much. Apologies
By:
orioles
When: 05 Jan 14 17:01
Normally, opposing the herd is the way to go, and the public is all over the Bengals like a fat lad at a buffet, but in this game I can't see past the home team; they just have too much on either side of the ball.

Cincinnati are 8-0 at home and Andy Dalton's numbers are far better in Paul Brown Stadium which is more important than it might seem, because Dalton is prone to turning the ball over. The Law Firm and Bernard are a nice one/two punch on the ground and given the weather forecast, the ability to control the run game may be critical. The Bolts' secondary is poor, despite picking up down the stretch, and A J Green matches up nicely on Shareece Wright and Richard Marshall at the corners; there's also a decent support cast downfield.

Ryan Mathews should be held in check by a decent Bengals' defensive front, forcing Philip Rivers to the air and while San Diego does have talent over the top with Antonio Gates and Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead catching out of the backfield, Cincinnati ranks 5th in average yards given up per game against the pass and the weather may be limiting.

I have the Bengals a TD better. I also like the Under.

Pick: Cincinnati -6.5 @ 1.93
Pick: Under 47.5 @ 1.91

Pick: 1st TD A J Green @ 8
Pick: Anytime TD BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ 2.3
By:
HARRY22
When: 05 Jan 14 17:15
Home advantage will probably win out but if the game stays close I would prefer to place any money on rivers over the fair weather Dalton, he looks great when his team is 30pts ahead and he starts throwing it around like an all-star but would you trust him to win a tight match?? not for me, don't see how 1.4 is any kind of value in this crazy sport. They are very good at home though and hard to ignore.
By:
Swardean
When: 05 Jan 14 17:34
I see the early nine for next week NO@SEA is -8
By:
Swardean
When: 05 Jan 14 17:34
*line
By:
HARRY22
When: 05 Jan 14 17:36
Brees is going to have a nightmare in seattle for me, pumped up crowd,seattle pass rush flying around and they can handle the big TEs as good as any team in the NFL, going to be a long night for cool brees.
By:
Wallflower
When: 05 Jan 14 17:38
mmm, that's why I don't go near this.

Seattle could win comfortably, and then give up late touchdown with time expiring, win by 4 or something.
By:
HARRY22
When: 05 Jan 14 17:42
I think the home game blip v the cardinals was a good thing, I don't think teams will go there thinking they can now be beat as most teams will go there thinking they can win.  Best get the defeat out of the way in the regular season.  I hope to see a seattle/niners v denver superbowl, would like to see how manning would cope against these two top defences, class on its own this nfc west for defence and that includes the other two teams.
By:
Hank Hill
When: 05 Jan 14 17:45
If you're putting your money down and only watching then it's the Bengals. If, you prefer to back and lay during the match, I don't think you can go far wrong with a lay of the Bengals to start at 1.4.
By:
The real Moaner
When: 05 Jan 14 17:56
Seattle's opening price for next week is utterly stupid. Yes, they won easily last time, but yesterday showed anything can happen and there are too many questions over the O-line for Sea and NO's explosiveness for them to be 1.2s.

As for tonight, this all depends on Cin's D. SD's D is abject so unless Dalton turns into Santa, Cin will score easily.

That said, 1.75 for HT/FT when they are 1.58 to win the 1st half is ridiculous. As is 9.6 for SD / Cin the other way though.
By:
Wallflower
When: 05 Jan 14 18:07
.... and we're on againHappy.

good luck all
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 05 Jan 14 18:19
Next game is 9.30 gmt or 1am gmt?
By:
Wallflower
When: 05 Jan 14 18:22
9.40 gmt
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 05 Jan 14 18:23
Thanks, don't think I could stay awake until 4.30 again
By:
Swardean
When: 05 Jan 14 18:24
Solid start from chargers, having first bet on wildcard weekend.   A little on chargers at 2/1
By:
Hank Hill
When: 05 Jan 14 18:26
yeah, nice drive this from chargers.
By:
the swede
When: 05 Jan 14 18:29
go chargers, put the bengals to sleep
By:
ClayDavis
When: 05 Jan 14 18:32
Andy Dalton is already giving me the hives CryCryCry
By:
the swede
When: 05 Jan 14 18:33
you cant go with dalton in playoffs
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 05 Jan 14 18:35
anyone got a decent stream please?
By:
vrk
When: 05 Jan 14 18:38
quick first half
By:
vrk
When: 05 Jan 14 18:38
quarter that is
By:
TIJUANABOOZER
When: 05 Jan 14 18:39
http://www.coolsport.tv/skysports1.html
By:
rubyisgodinthesaddle
When: 05 Jan 14 18:40
Thank you very much Tijuan
By:
Wallflower
When: 05 Jan 14 18:41
Kevin Cadle looking very dapper, often does but in particular tonight
By:
Wallflower
When: 05 Jan 14 18:43
This is going to be trickyPlain...... I'm retreating with a tiny red......re-group and observe
By:
tommo0001
When: 05 Jan 14 18:44
that was scandalous from dalton
By:
HARRY22
When: 05 Jan 14 18:46
One QB looks cool and collected and the other looks as he was expected to look Shocked
By:
vrk
When: 05 Jan 14 18:48
Rivers didn't look so cool or collected there. Terrible pass.
By:
tommo0001
When: 05 Jan 14 18:48
time for cincy to produce a good drive
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