North American
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Love this time of the year and love this weekend especially.
NINERS TO NAIL GARBAGE GREEN BAY DEFENSE Massive, massive, massive bet on the San Francisco 49ers -2.5 at 10-11.
I'm going to live or die by the 49ers in the play offs. I'm surprised the spread is only 2.5 here - I thought it would be higher.
I'm a huge fan or Aaron Rogers - I think he is the best QB in the NFL. I also like Eddie Lacy and Starks and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. I like their offense a lot. But their defense is just woeful. And no Clay Matthews. It's bad against the run and bad against the pass. Frank Gore is going to have a field day tomorrow.
The cold conditions won't bother the Niners as much as people think as this is a hard football team built to play in touch conditions.
The Packers won't get as much joy against this 49ers D as they did against a woeful Chicago Bears D. And let's be honest, the Packers don;t think they are good enough. Rogers could have played weeks ago. They didn't risk him. They didn't think they would be good enough to get into the play offs this year. They only risked him when they had a win and your in situation.
The Niners are hot right now. Healthy. And players returning to form. Plus they have beaten the Packers the last three times they have faced each other. I expect the Niners to win this game and win it easy - by at least a touchdown.
BREES AND GRAHAM SET TO CLIP THE EAGLES' WINGS Big bet on the New Orleans Saints (moneyline) at 5-4.
Firstly, I like Chip Kelly. I think he has done an excellent job at Philly and I genuinely enjoy watching the Eagles play. They are fun to watch. I also rate Nick Foles and Shady McCoy and Jackson are both outstanding and match winners in their own right.
I just do not rate the Eagles' D, and especially their secondary. And I'm a huge fan of the New Orleans' Saints offense - which is as good as any in the league. Yes I know all about the Saints on the road, in cold conditions, blah blah blah. But who exactly have the Eagles beaten this season? Their division was a joke this year. And only two weeks ago the Vikings ran amok against their secondary. Even Kyle Orton passed for fun against the Eagles. Kyle Orton is no Drew Brees, believe me.
Also the Saints really should have won in Carolina two weeks ago, losing in the last seconds to a Cam Newton drive. Carolina are a tougher team than Philly. Not as explosive but tougher.
Any team with Drew Brees, Colston, Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, Thomas, Sproules and Lance Moore has a huge shot. I think these guys will love playing against this Philly D. And I fancy them to win tonight.
CHARLES AND THE CHIEFS TO CURB THE COLTS Big bet on the Kansas City Chiefs (moneyline) at Evens.
Congrats to anyone who got the Chiefs earlier in the week as their has been loads of money for them and this is now a pick em game.
I ended up with egg all over my face as I really fancied the Chiefs to beat the Colts at home a few weeks back only for them to throw in a stinker and the Colts won easily. A few reasons why I fancy a turnaround tonight.
First, I fancied the Chiefs because the Colts' run D is not very good and think Charles can shred it. I still believe that.
Secondly, I thought the Chiefs' D was running on empty a few weeks ago and is now refreshed having all 11 starters rested against the Chargers last week.
And thirdly, three teams have come out of AFC West into the play offs so obviously a tough division. Whereas the Colts had it easy as their division sucked. Yes I know the Colts have beaten Denver and Seattle at home but their injuries are very costly and they only have TY Hilton as a deep threat. That won't take them very far.
The Chiefs for me.
BENGALS TO BATTER THE LUCKY CHARGERS Big bet on the Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 at 10-11
Those zerbras last week prevented us from a Pittsburgh v Cincinnati wildcard game. Oh how much fun that would have been.
The Bengals are 8-0 at home this season. I don't like Dalton but I like all other aspects of their offense. I expect them to put up 30+ points on this San Diego D. And the Bengals D is good enough, strong enough (despite injuries) to restrict Rivers and Co to 20 points or less.
An easy Bengals win for me
NINERS TO NAIL GARBAGE GREEN BAY DEFENSE Massive, massive, massive bet on the San Francisco 49ers -2.5 at 10-11.
I'm going to live or die by the 49ers in the play offs. I'm surprised the spread is only 2.5 here - I thought it would be higher.
I'm a huge fan or Aaron Rogers - I think he is the best QB in the NFL. I also like Eddie Lacy and Starks and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. I like their offense a lot. But their defense is just woeful. And no Clay Matthews. It's bad against the run and bad against the pass. Frank Gore is going to have a field day tomorrow.
The cold conditions won't bother the Niners as much as people think as this is a hard football team built to play in touch conditions.
The Packers won't get as much joy against this 49ers D as they did against a woeful Chicago Bears D. And let's be honest, the Packers don;t think they are good enough. Rogers could have played weeks ago. They didn't risk him. They didn't think they would be good enough to get into the play offs this year. They only risked him when they had a win and your in situation.
The Niners are hot right now. Healthy. And players returning to form. Plus they have beaten the Packers the last three times they have faced each other. I expect the Niners to win this game and win it easy - by at least a touchdown.
BREES AND GRAHAM SET TO CLIP THE EAGLES' WINGS Big bet on the New Orleans Saints (moneyline) at 5-4.
Firstly, I like Chip Kelly. I think he has done an excellent job at Philly and I genuinely enjoy watching the Eagles play. They are fun to watch. I also rate Nick Foles and Shady McCoy and Jackson are both outstanding and match winners in their own right.
I just do not rate the Eagles' D, and especially their secondary. And I'm a huge fan of the New Orleans' Saints offense - which is as good as any in the league. Yes I know all about the Saints on the road, in cold conditions, blah blah blah. But who exactly have the Eagles beaten this season? Their division was a joke this year. And only two weeks ago the Vikings ran amok against their secondary. Even Kyle Orton passed for fun against the Eagles. Kyle Orton is no Drew Brees, believe me.
Also the Saints really should have won in Carolina two weeks ago, losing in the last seconds to a Cam Newton drive. Carolina are a tougher team than Philly. Not as explosive but tougher.
Any team with Drew Brees, Colston, Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, Thomas, Sproules and Lance Moore has a huge shot. I think these guys will love playing against this Philly D. And I fancy them to win tonight.
CHARLES AND THE CHIEFS TO CURB THE COLTS Big bet on the Kansas City Chiefs (moneyline) at Evens.
Congrats to anyone who got the Chiefs earlier in the week as their has been loads of money for them and this is now a pick em game.
I ended up with egg all over my face as I really fancied the Chiefs to beat the Colts at home a few weeks back only for them to throw in a stinker and the Colts won easily. A few reasons why I fancy a turnaround tonight.
First, I fancied the Chiefs because the Colts' run D is not very good and think Charles can shred it. I still believe that.
Secondly, I thought the Chiefs' D was running on empty a few weeks ago and is now refreshed having all 11 starters rested against the Chargers last week.
And thirdly, three teams have come out of AFC West into the play offs so obviously a tough division. Whereas the Colts had it easy as their division sucked. Yes I know the Colts have beaten Denver and Seattle at home but their injuries are very costly and they only have TY Hilton as a deep threat. That won't take them very far.
The Chiefs for me.
BENGALS TO BATTER THE LUCKY CHARGERS Big bet on the Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 at 10-11
Those zerbras last week prevented us from a Pittsburgh v Cincinnati wildcard game. Oh how much fun that would have been.
The Bengals are 8-0 at home this season. I don't like Dalton but I like all other aspects of their offense. I expect them to put up 30+ points on this San Diego D. And the Bengals D is good enough, strong enough (despite injuries) to restrict Rivers and Co to 20 points or less.
An easy Bengals win for me
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Great write up as always Clay certainly wear your heart on your sleeve when giving your opinion. I actually agree with all of the above Indi apart.
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I'm still not convinced about Kaep. he needs a big game tomorrow but has a great team around him. Rodgers is the best QB for me so I'm a packers man all day long. Over the 45.5 points is the bet there for me. Also like the colts tonight and I cant see any reason for the big price swing the last few days. Luck is well under rated i think. should be some great games anyway. best of luck.
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I am not convinced by CK either in terms of bringing team the whole way including winning in Seattle. I agree with clay though I only see a San Fran tomorrow. Last weekend San fran won away against the NFC's form and potentially most dangerous opponents if they made play offs in Arizona, Green Bay fell over the line again a poor Chicago team who would be out of their depth in the play offs if reaching. San Fran can run the ball effectively while also having many throwing options. The Green Bay D is poor and their main hope is Rogers but even he will struggle to break down San Fran's D.
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Not sure how much the weather will affect the game-agree gb 's d is poor , but I wouldn't fancy relying on kaep when they play a good one ....seattle
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Even as an eagles fan I with u on the saints clay think they're a massive price!
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