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ClayDavis
24 Dec 13 00:22
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 8,456 | Blogger: ClayDavis's blog
They are the best team out there - they are getting everyone healthy and they are hitting form at the right time. They are peaking as the Hawks are dipping. With Von Miller missing for Denver and The gronk missing for the Pats, I can't see the AFC providing the winner.
The 49ers are going to have to do it the hard way but going through Carolina, without Stevie Smith, will not be as tough as it could've been and then it's probably Seattle (not convinced the Hawks will be in the NFC championship game).
An offense with Gore, Davis, Grabtree, Manningham and Bouldin will be tough for anyone to handle.
The ravens and the Giants have done it the hard way in recent years so it can be done.
9-1 for the best team out there who are peaking at the right time is absolutely massive. A must bet.
MASSIVE BET ON THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers WINNING THE SUPER BOWL AT 9-1

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Replies: 85
By:
Swagger
When: 24 Dec 13 00:31
I am with you on this Clay. I fancied the Packers until Rogers got injured and to be fair their defence was getting worse even before he got injured as well. I just think Denver will come unstuck against a better defence, I think the Pats have too many injuries to actually win it. New Orleans aren't improving, the Seahawks have cruised through the season but this is the business end now when it really matters. They finally lost at home under Russell Wilson so people know they can actually be beaten at home regardless of all that noise. I just think the Panthers will go close but just come up short and agree that the 49ers are hitting form and getting everyone fit at the right time. 9/1 looks a fair price even allowing for their schedule. I think the winner will come from whoever wins out of the Seahawks and the 49ers and my money is on CK to get the job done.
By:
Only-the-Brave
When: 24 Dec 13 01:57
definitely see the logic.  That Seattle D is ridiculous though.  Safest bet is Denver as they look nailed on to reach the superbowl - don't see anyone in the AFC beating them.  Seattle/SF defo could, but by that time you can lay off.  Too many weapons, and I feel that they still haven't shown their full hand yet.
By:
bigted.
When: 24 Dec 13 04:34
They are choking here against Atlanta..
By:
bigted.
When: 24 Dec 13 04:37
Take that back ,amazing scenes Blush
By:
Swardean
When: 24 Dec 13 12:54
What prices would you expect 49ers to be in each of their 4 must win play-off games?  What price the acca?

Is 9/1 really good value?
By:
Swagger
When: 24 Dec 13 13:31
It obviously all depends on who they play Swardean, it's not set in stone that any team will beat another so they may not have to face both the Seahawks and the Broncos or the Patriots to win the SB although on paper it would appear extremely likely. I suppose i'm just being lazy and although the 49ers lost very close games to both the Panthers and the Saints during the season I think they would take care of them now, the Eagles don't have a great defence, the Packers and Cowboys are banged up and the Bears have lost the plot so the first game shouldn't be too difficult then the fun really begins.

Little bit concerned last night at times the 49ers looked devoid of ideas offensively but perhaps Falcons are a tough match up for them and the Mike Nolan factor. Other side of the coin is that they have won 5 straight, and I just feel the offence still hasn't clicked this season so they are arguably ready to explode in the play offs.

Equally I think at 5/2, the Seahawks are terrible value, not because I think they can't win it but because I think they will surely trade at a bigger price in running even if they do go onto win the SB.

It does depend on the schedule as if the Patriots beat the Broncos and the 49ers met them in the SB then the 9/1 would look even better as surely the 49ers would be favourites in such a match up.

The Seahawks still have the Rams to beat first as well
By:
stroodle
When: 24 Dec 13 13:33
Why would you think 49ers are a good thing for superbowl, when they could have easily lost the match against Atlanta last night, only for a good bit of luck in the last few minutes. Thought Atalanta were in terrible form going into this match? 49ers last match at Candlestick and struggled to put away a team which many thought were going to get a trouncing, and at the finish were unlucky not to win last night.
By:
Swagger
When: 24 Dec 13 14:31
I wouldn't write off a team after one performance. The Seahawks scraped past The Buccs at home who i think had lost every game leading up to it but obviously the Seahawks have a quality team and a very good chance of winning the SB. Also, the Falcons would have been hacked off that they got beaten so late by the 49ers in the playoffs last season so i'm sure would have been well up for it last night. I did also elude to my concern about the 49ers on offence at times last night but with guys like Crabtree recently coming back the offence is probably just getting properly drilled for the play offs.
By:
HARRY22
When: 28 Dec 13 16:46
Agree with brave I am not sure if any team in the afc is  capable of beating denver in denver, not sure why I think this as this season has produced some crazy 4th quarter wins, I guess  I should have said 'I have no idea which team can do the job'  can't look past seattle and 49ers, saints need home advantage for me, panthers will probably hit a wall and not sure if cam is at full strength, packers could sneak in but this team has been done yet again by lots of injuries in key positions, they will be in great shape next season.

49ers or seattle.....what worries me is the home advantage, the last 4 meetings have had the same pattern, niners have won both home games JUST and both in similar fashion, seattle have completely smashed the niners in seattle and you have to favour seattle yet again,they just seem to know how to play kaep.
By:
Swagger
When: 28 Dec 13 18:11
I quite like the Steelers for next season. Much has been made of their old defence which is a fair criticism, but they will surely bring in some new blood for next season. Big Ben has been playing very well in recent weeks seems to have taken a while for him and the young offence to get on the same page. Brown, Bell and Sanders are quality and will only improve next season. They have lost a lot of tight matches this season which could have gone their way, the Panthers lost loads of tight encounters last season and although they obviously have a strong defence this season, they have managed to turn of lot of narrow losses into narrow victories.

Agree with your point about the Seahawks hammering the 49ers in the two recent home matches. I just think that this time they have just got turned over by the Cardinals at home and they will have all the pressure as they will be expected to simply repeat the previous wins whereas the 49ers can have a real go and just pure gut feeling but I think they will edge it.

Gutted the Romo is out tomorrow, whatever people think of the guy he deserved to play tomorrow and it really takes the gloss of what was primed to be an absolute belter
By:
The real Moaner
When: 29 Dec 13 13:58
49ers value wise look utterly atrocious.

If results go according to plan, they will have to win at Seattle, Carolina and Philly just to reach the Superbowl. I wouldn't make them favourites in any of those matches - I'd make them closer to 9/1 to win the NFC than to win the Superbowl.

Of course, if they somehow manage to secure the NFC West, 9/1 becomes good value but that looks a very long shot.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 29 Dec 13 15:07
U wouldn't make them favs to win at Philly or Carolina? Moron
By:
The real Moaner
When: 29 Dec 13 16:45
No. I wouldn't. On offense, they are one dimensional and have been little more than mediocre this season. Their defence revolves around Justin Smith too much. Just my opinion however.

Thanks for your considered response.
By:
startedOct2000stillgoingstrong
When: 29 Dec 13 17:20
It will be interesting to see how  Kaepernick does against an Arizona secondary that made Russell Wilson struggle last week. I think he will struggle equally but we shall see.
By:
tonyagana
When: 29 Dec 13 17:54
"It will be interesting to see how  Kaepernick does against an Arizona secondary that made Russell Wilson struggle last week. I think he will struggle equally but we shall see."

I think if this was just a normal regular season match-up then it would be. Knowing the way Jim Harbaugh thinks though, an early lead for the Seahawks in Seattle (where they should beat the Rams) will make this a pretty much a dead rubber for the Niners and as such I can't see him wishing to risk injury to any front-line players. I hope I am wrong as this has the potential to be a decent match-up.
By:
db1974
When: 29 Dec 13 21:35
The 49ers wouldn't be faves on the road in Carolina anyway, sure the Panthers beat them at the Stick  earlier this season. Against the Eagles it could be a pick-em but its hard to tell. We'll know next week anyway.
By:
db1974
When: 29 Dec 13 21:47
Actually we won't know next week because the 49ers will be travelling to either the Bears or the Packerswhile the Saints will be travelling to the Eagles
By:
ClayDavis
When: 29 Dec 13 22:19
are nuts if u think the 49ers won't be favs against any of those sides. The 49ers will be favs until they go to Seattler
By:
db1974
When: 29 Dec 13 22:27
Feckin hell Clay the 49ers were Dogs today on the road against the Cardinals, not a chance they will be favs on the road in the Playoffs
By:
ClayDavis
When: 29 Dec 13 22:47
U clearly know nothing about this sport if u are using today as your reasoning why the 49ers will be dogs away to Philly/Carolina. 'not a chance they will be favs on the road in the Playoffs' is one of the most stupid comments I have read on this forum - and believe me that is saying something
By:
db1974
When: 29 Dec 13 22:48
Ah sure I will bow down to your superior knowledge then
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 29 Dec 13 23:35
why the hell would the 12-4 49ers be travelling to a 9-7 team??????????
By:
grayhawk
When: 29 Dec 13 23:40
Cos they didn't win their division....rules of the play offs

Division winners are seeded 1 to 4.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 29 Dec 13 23:45
Has that always been the rule?
By:
grayhawk
When: 29 Dec 13 23:46
Don't know if it's always been the rule Roger.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 30 Dec 13 00:44
So u think the Packers will be favs to beat the 49ers? I don't
By:
Timeforchange
When: 30 Dec 13 00:52
How would you price it then Clay as i think the Pack will beat them.
By:
punkha1
When: 30 Dec 13 01:03
After the manner of that win with A-Rod back the Packers certainly wont be underdogs at Lambeau.Possibly a pick-em game or the Pack minus 1 imo.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 30 Dec 13 01:11
The Pack D is so bad that the 49ers will crush them. And I'm A-Rod's biggest fan
By:
punkha1
When: 30 Dec 13 01:18
Yeah their D is very poor.They're my only 2 bets outright this season so kinda pissed one going out next wee.
Think GB might be the best bet to knock off Seattle at home tho.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 30 Dec 13 01:22
I'd be very confident of the 49ers winning in Charlotte against Carolina after Green Bay. I don't think Carolina are in the best of form of late. They look to be a team to me teetering on the brink. I might be wrong. But the 49ers are in far better form now than when Carolina beat them earlier in the season
By:
punkha1
When: 30 Dec 13 01:31
Yeah id fancy either against Carolina tbh just the beasts in Seattle that id be worried about.
By:
TexassportsagentBuzz
When: 30 Dec 13 04:52
My only problem with San Fran is either A. Kaepernick has a noodle arm, or B. Harbaugh doesn't trust him because it seems in the 5 games I have watched them this year they throw an awful lot of screen passes and short underneath routes but never even once try a deep bomb. Now I know its a lower percentage play but at least by throwing deeo the opposition has too account for it. Throwing short all the time is becoming predictable.
By:
startedOct2000stillgoingstrong
When: 30 Dec 13 05:43
just dont look like a SB winning team to me.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 30 Dec 13 10:36
db1974 - "not a chance they will be favs on the road in the Playoffs"

Eh opening Vegas line has the 49ers as -2.5 favs!!!
By:
ClayDavis
When: 30 Dec 13 10:38
TexassportsagentBuzz - it's a fair point but in fairness to Harbaugh and Kaepernick they have not had much of a deep ball threat for chunks of the season. And I think they are easing Crabtree back in. I expect they will be more expansive now.
If they get through the Pack, their game against Carolina will be completely different to their clash earlier in the season when they had no deep ball threat
By:
Swardean
When: 30 Dec 13 11:07
So they are about 8/11 favourites here, I would think they would be 5/4 against Carolina and approx 2/1 against seahawks?
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 30 Dec 13 11:48
49'rs wont play carolina clay if the eagles beat the saints, they will have to go to seattle.
By:
Swardean
When: 30 Dec 13 12:34
Yes but IMO they will have to play both of these sides at some point if they are to get to the SB
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