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CHIEFS TO RULE THE ROAST OVER THE BRONCOS - Massive, massive bet on the Kansas City Chiefs +7.5 at 10-11
I started another thread about this game. I'm all over the Chiefs here. Their D will keep this tight. Denver's offense line is starting to crumble. Andy Reid off a bye week - his teams just don't lose coming off a break. This game will be close, very close. Can't wait for this one.
CLEVELAND TO LAY DOWN A MARKER AGAINST THE BENGALS Big bet on the Cleveland Browns +6 at 10-11
I just don't get why the Bengals are such strong favs here. Ok they are 4-0 at home but they have lost their last two and are still missing Gino Atkins. Plus their offensive line will miss Kevin Zeitler for the first time in three years and that spells big trouble for the Bengals against this very good Browns Defense.
The Browns beat the Bengals earlier in the season 17-6 and I can see something similar happening here. I really like the Browns defense and they will keep them in this game, that's for sure.
KAEPERNICK SET TO SINK THE SAINTS Big bet on the San Francisco 49ers +3.5 at 10-11
I think people are getting carried away with the Saints, and the 49ers' defeat last week. The 49ers have been excellent the past few seasons when people write them off and their backs are against the wall. Veron Davis is set to play which is great news for the Niners but Crabtree misses out again which is a blow.
But the Saints run defense is poor, very poor. Look what the Jets did to this run defense? Frank Gore is going to have a field day for the Niners.
Yes the Saints are very good on offense but the Niners are excellent on defense and they can get at Brees. The Saints offense line still has issues.
This is such a huge game for the Niners as if they lose they can kiss goodbye to catching Seattle. The Niners tend to beat the Saints. They won in New Orleans last year. And I'm confident they will do so again
RG111 SET TO RUFFLE THE EAGLES' FEATHERS Big bet on the Washington Redskins at +4.5 at 10-11
I'm still trying to work out how the Redskins lost in Minnesota 10 days ago, Tis still a sore one for me. And betting on a team whose defense is nothing short of woeful is very dangerous indeed. But I'm backing them for a few reasons. Their season is on the line here. They have had a 10 days break. Their offense is getting better and better and better. Philly's defense isn't exactly great. And plus the Eagles home record is just shocking. They have lost their last 10 games at home. Good luck backing a team giving away 4.5pts who have lost their last 10 at home. RG111 for me.
ELI TO THROW MORE PICKS AGAINST THE PACK Big bet on the Green Bay Packers +4.5 at 10-11
Did I read that right, the Giants are 4.5 favs for a game? Really? I mean really? Man alive. Ok no Rogers for the Packers again but even so the Giants are dreadful and they are massive flattered to have three wins on the board. Their defense is just awful and their offense line gets worse, plus Eli is throwing picks for fun. Opposing the Giants is like one massive ATM machine. Give me more
I started another thread about this game. I'm all over the Chiefs here. Their D will keep this tight. Denver's offense line is starting to crumble. Andy Reid off a bye week - his teams just don't lose coming off a break. This game will be close, very close. Can't wait for this one.
CLEVELAND TO LAY DOWN A MARKER AGAINST THE BENGALS Big bet on the Cleveland Browns +6 at 10-11
I just don't get why the Bengals are such strong favs here. Ok they are 4-0 at home but they have lost their last two and are still missing Gino Atkins. Plus their offensive line will miss Kevin Zeitler for the first time in three years and that spells big trouble for the Bengals against this very good Browns Defense.
The Browns beat the Bengals earlier in the season 17-6 and I can see something similar happening here. I really like the Browns defense and they will keep them in this game, that's for sure.
KAEPERNICK SET TO SINK THE SAINTS Big bet on the San Francisco 49ers +3.5 at 10-11
I think people are getting carried away with the Saints, and the 49ers' defeat last week. The 49ers have been excellent the past few seasons when people write them off and their backs are against the wall. Veron Davis is set to play which is great news for the Niners but Crabtree misses out again which is a blow.
But the Saints run defense is poor, very poor. Look what the Jets did to this run defense? Frank Gore is going to have a field day for the Niners.
Yes the Saints are very good on offense but the Niners are excellent on defense and they can get at Brees. The Saints offense line still has issues.
This is such a huge game for the Niners as if they lose they can kiss goodbye to catching Seattle. The Niners tend to beat the Saints. They won in New Orleans last year. And I'm confident they will do so again
RG111 SET TO RUFFLE THE EAGLES' FEATHERS Big bet on the Washington Redskins at +4.5 at 10-11
I'm still trying to work out how the Redskins lost in Minnesota 10 days ago, Tis still a sore one for me. And betting on a team whose defense is nothing short of woeful is very dangerous indeed. But I'm backing them for a few reasons. Their season is on the line here. They have had a 10 days break. Their offense is getting better and better and better. Philly's defense isn't exactly great. And plus the Eagles home record is just shocking. They have lost their last 10 games at home. Good luck backing a team giving away 4.5pts who have lost their last 10 at home. RG111 for me.
ELI TO THROW MORE PICKS AGAINST THE PACK Big bet on the Green Bay Packers +4.5 at 10-11
Did I read that right, the Giants are 4.5 favs for a game? Really? I mean really? Man alive. Ok no Rogers for the Packers again but even so the Giants are dreadful and they are massive flattered to have three wins on the board. Their defense is just awful and their offense line gets worse, plus Eli is throwing picks for fun. Opposing the Giants is like one massive ATM machine. Give me more
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At least 3 games to contest with the OP's selections, but let's just focus on one. But then again, I bet the ML, he bets the handicap, so we may both win.
To continue with the theme of hyperbole, it's like taking candy from a baby. NO presently 1.60 I'll wait and see if the uninformed San Fran money comes in and put my money down just before game time. If not, I'll be happy to take the Saints as low as 1.56. As always, I'll look to trade out for a 15% profit, but NO scores so fast, I'll probably hold out for 20%. Those steady, laughable little wins add up and can let a have a pretty good lifestyle. They're only little wins if you have a little bankroll. Just saying. Lots of things to say about this game, but let's just go anti Clay for some direction. Colin K is not quite the golden boy people thought. Vernon Davis might play. I could care less if he does. He will be just a small factor if he plays because who will throw him the ball ? I can see SF completing a bunch of low yardage passes though, which should lead to lots of punts and FG tries. It's no good for SF to be trading FGs vs NO Tds. Frank Gore. I love the way he plays. He is one of the 3 or 4 backs in the league who really matter. The rest are interchangeable. The problem with Frank is he only runs north and south. Has he ever made a step to the side ? A player like Frank is only effective if his team can throw the ball. Not the case here. Do you think Mr. Ryan knows that ? NO can easily afford one on one defensive matchups and clog the middle with an extra Cb or safety or two. From the 2 yard line for a TD, Frank is the man, even here, but he might find a permanent seat on the bench after the third quarter. I'm not so impressed by the vaunted SF D. Their pass D sucks, and they haven't played anybody like Drew Brees, at home. If they blitz him, Brees will say thank you very much, and the game will get out of hand early. Saint O line still have issues? Maybe Clay can come back and enlighten us with what those issues are. It's a huge game for SF. Golly. Big f'n deal. I guess NO will just lay down because of it. There is absolutely no merit for betting a team because they supposedly have to win, unless you're talking African or Italian football Niners tend to beat the Saints ? More enlightenment needed please Clay. Last 10 meetings going back to 2001 is NO 6 wins, SF 4. I don't put any weight at all on such long past games, but a word had to be said because Clay brought it up as meaningful in his analysis. Yes, Clay's 2 week holiday from scrutiny is over. SF did beat No in NO last year, and at home too. The year of turmoil for NO. Their D was so bad they sacked their D co ordinator. Take away those 2 wins and it's NO 6, SF 2. If my addition skills are right, it was 5 - 5 in the handicap betting. "tend" must have a new meaning that I'm unaware of. I'm thinking NO will score 32 points or more. Will SF score at least 33 ? Clay and a few others hope that I'm wrong and end up with egg on my face. Maybe everybody can win if NO win by 1 or 2. Good luck. |
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NO O line....do u ever watch them play? Did u see them against the Jets? Beasted by the Jets front 4 - consistently pushed back into Brees' lap. Against Tampa earlier in the season when NO scraped home, beasted again. I know a lot of Saints fans who are seriously worried about their O line and think that Carolina might destroy it when they play.
SF have a better head to head record against the Saints and win the important games. U briefly mentioned the game two years ago - why? Saints rolled into SF in the play offs as red hot favs and the Niners beat them. If you don;t care if Veron Davis plays or not and u have backed the Saints then you are very very silly |
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NO won 14 straight @ home and covered every time, winning by 16.8 pts on average.
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SFG haven't beaten anyone good since the first week (GB) they have been walloped twice by Indy and Seattle, and got beat last week by Carolina, that's 1-3 against quality opposition. That's not to say NO have many good wins either, but they're at home at a totally different beast in the dome.
If we look at NO's defense is it really that bad? 7th in points, 3rd in yards, 11th in pass yards, and 23rd in rush yards. No, I don't buy it as the defense some were making but earlier, but it's better than average. |
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Actually Clay, I didn't mention the playoff game 2 years ago. The league and teams change week to week, so I think the past is just that; the past. The only historical trend that I pay any attention to is home and away records. Like, NO is a beast at home, not so much on the road. If you think history is relevant, so be it, that's your opinion. I also look at and weigh heavily strength of schedule, something that you seem to not pay any attention to. DirkDiggler spelled it out nicely for you.
What I take exception to is when the hard facts trotted out just aren't true. SF tend to beat NO for example. I looked it up and it's No 6, SF 4 in their last 10. Just a question, exactly how many Saints fans do you know ? Out of the hundred or so NFL fans I know, well or slightly, I think maybe 2 are Saints fans. Carolina destroying the NO O line has absolutely no relevance in this game, so why even mention it. Every game is a single event. A guy going against a team every week because he doesn't like the QB should look in the mirror before he calls anyone silly. If you want to compare O Lines, what stats do you use ? Hurrys, pressure, sacks. Don't know about the first 2, but NO and SF have both allowed 21 sacks. It looks worse for NO because Brees isn't too mobile, so it looks like the heat is always on. Kap can move. It doesn't mean the rushers are kept out, it just looks better. |
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A lazy bet on the Redkins to beat the Eagles moneyline at 2/1. I just think the Redskins will put it all together sooner rather than later offensively and Foles is due an average/poor show after a couple of good games
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ouch Still Standing
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well done still standing
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punting on this sport can be a bitch!
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Not a great weekend, lost plenty. Slightly disappointed with the Chiefs...their D did more than enough to keep them in the game. It was the 1st quarter that killed them, going down 10-0. Onwards and upwards to the Carolina v Pats game
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No chasing, now
 .....Pats/Panthers a tough proposition to get money back.......% profit will be down obviously but guessing not as much as you'd think as the increasing number of bets reduces the effect (positively/negatively) on overall % profit.......Could have been worse; 0.5pt away from total blank...perhaps scrapping by with the 49ers is enough to keep you in overall profit - haven't updated yet.Meant to post beforehand "massive" is as before £35. "massive, massive" is still £35, not £70 obviously |
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Not chasing at all - I fancy the Pats tonight. Have all done week
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