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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/
1849595-high-school-coach-who-never-punts-explains-his-strategy
Interesting stuff. The numbers associated with calculating the pay-offs are probably different at NFL level, but perhaps there's a chance that NFL teams should be playing the same way.
1849595-high-school-coach-who-never-punts-explains-his-strategy
Interesting stuff. The numbers associated with calculating the pay-offs are probably different at NFL level, but perhaps there's a chance that NFL teams should be playing the same way.
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Check out the book Stumbling On Wins in Football By David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt if you like this kind of stuff - and who doesn't?!
It's another moneyball theory. Love it. A good thing to show the kids who don't thinks maths is relevant.
Would an NFL team be able to recover that many onside kicks?
Definitely some merit in the thinking about punting near your own goal line. The 4th and 7 in the example might be pushing it though
Definitely some merit in the thinking about punting near your own goal line. The 4th and 7 in the example might be pushing it though
I definitely think coaches should go for it on 4th down more often. They are scared of doing anything unconventional because they will take the heat for it after the game if it goes wrong, whereas if you make the safe call the players take the blame. Does anyone remember Patriots v Colts a few years ago, where New England went for it on 4th down in their own half near the end of the game, failed and lost the game? The press had a field day with Belichick there but it was absolutely the right call in the circumstances. Essentially Brady needed one completion to win the game, otherwise Peyton Manning has the ball in his hands and the extra 40 yards from a punt probably wouldn't have mattered.
High school football is a bit different to the pros in a few ways. Firstly, punters don't have anywhere near the same length or hangtime so your net gain from punting is far less. Secondly the defenses aren't as good so possession is worth a lot more. Going for it on 4th down is actually fairly common.
Onside kicks are a different matter but what the coach said makes a lot of sense. Even with just a 20% recovery rate, if you are only giving up 14 yards on average then it's a value play. It nullifies the chance of a kickoff return TD as well. Not sure if this would translate to the pros as they seem very well drilled at stopping onside kicks when they know they are coming. In fact I can't remember the last time I saw the kicking team recover one, other than doing them unexpectedly (like the Saints in the Superbowl for example).
High school football is a bit different to the pros in a few ways. Firstly, punters don't have anywhere near the same length or hangtime so your net gain from punting is far less. Secondly the defenses aren't as good so possession is worth a lot more. Going for it on 4th down is actually fairly common.
Onside kicks are a different matter but what the coach said makes a lot of sense. Even with just a 20% recovery rate, if you are only giving up 14 yards on average then it's a value play. It nullifies the chance of a kickoff return TD as well. Not sure if this would translate to the pros as they seem very well drilled at stopping onside kicks when they know they are coming. In fact I can't remember the last time I saw the kicking team recover one, other than doing them unexpectedly (like the Saints in the Superbowl for example).
the numbers must be very different in NFL than college ball i imagine. IN the video he says there's a 70+% chance of a TD when you get the ball back on the halfway line. must be a lot lower in NFL games hence punting on 4th and long the correct thing to do
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