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ClayDavis Prediction - Forum Appreciation Thread
Wallflower
Wallflower
13 Sep 13 11:17
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Date Joined: 01 Nov 04
| Topic/replies: 8,148 | Blogger: Wallflower's blog
I thought it might be good to monitor the analysis and associated "predictions" - I for one believe other "legends" on other sports such as MoneyTree and Morse have a serious rival.
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Replies: 71
By:
Wallflower When: 13 Sep 13 11:17
We'll assume £10 standard stake (unless otherwise advisedHappy, by the man himself). Prices are approximate for first 3 (not that it matters since they all lostCool.


1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
By:
DirkDiggler When: 13 Sep 13 16:56
Do you think we can tempt him into picking college football too?
By:
ClayDavis When: 13 Sep 13 20:53
Come, come Wallflower - you are missing something out now. Let's be fair. Go back and read the Redskins v Eagles preview again
By:
Wallflower When: 16 Sep 13 02:29
Right, rain delay in Seattle. Early updateHappy....Generously, I'm giving you Evens on spreads selections as opposed to the normal 10/11, and of course no commissionCool. Amounts as per other thread...(10 medium,  20 big, 30 huge).

Zero this week (again, forgetting about 10/11 and commission). You better keep away from Eagles and Broncos in Week 3Cool. Improving, but must do betterGrin.


1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -30.00
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By:
Wallflower When: 16 Sep 13 02:35
Apologies......Chargers/Eagles wrong.....late night tipplingHappy. £20 profit this week, so turning it around....credit where credit is due.



1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
By:
SteadyPaceDontChase When: 17 Sep 13 02:10
Guy is a clown couldn't tip a waiter.
By:
Mr Mischief When: 17 Sep 13 05:13
Great tipping ClayHappy
By:
Wallflower When: 17 Sep 13 15:30
....and Clay goes into creditGrinShocked!!!! 

Still giving you evens instead of 10/11, for convenience.

1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
9.   Bengals )-6.5) over Steelers   2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: +20.00

So.....closing balance at Week 2 is +£20.00. Total £160 wagered, average per bet £17.78. Average return £2.22

Approx 12.5% return - not bad at all.
By:
Swagger When: 17 Sep 13 22:39
Well done Clay, a great second week and you were unlucky the Saints didn't cover the spread.
By:
Wallflower When: 20 Sep 13 11:22
....upward trend continuesHappy.

--Week 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
--Week 2-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
9.   Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers   2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: +20.00
--Week 2--------------------------------------------------------------------------
10.  Chiefs (+3) over Eagles        2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +40.00
By:
Wallflower When: 20 Sep 13 11:33
....upward trend continuesHappy.

--Week 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
--Week 2-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
9.   Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers   2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: +20.00
--Week 3--------------------------------------------------------------------------
10.  Chiefs (+3) over Eagles        2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +40.00
By:
Wallflower When: 23 Sep 13 11:27
Hmm, bit like snakes and ladders - mind you, I've agreed with much of your write-ups. But I'm an in-play trader, thankfully.

Down a tenner for Week 3 after a good start with the Chiefs.

Theoretical £290 wagered. Return £10.00........3.4% return.. Modest (very modest if exact prices/commission usedCool), but we'll say profit nonetheless.

--Week 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
--Week 2-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
9.   Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers   2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: +20.00
--Week 3--------------------------------------------------------------------------
10.  Chiefs (+3) over Eagles        2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +40.00
11.  Texans to beat Ravens          2.00     £30  lost  -30.00  New Total: +10.00
12.  Lions to beat Redskins         2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +30.00
13.  Dolphins (3) over Falcons      2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +50.00
14.  Bills (+3) over Jets           2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +30.00
15.  Steelers (+3) over Bears       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +10.00
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By:
Wallflower When: 30 Sep 13 00:46
Ok, let's get this over with.....theoretical loss of £60 this week.

Total of £390 wagered.....returnCry- is a loss of £50.......12.82% loss
19 bets......averaging £20.53 per bet.....averaging loss of £2.63 per bet.

Now, Clay, we are a quarter of the way through the regular season (as good as)...you must do betterCool. No excuses, no bad luck stories, no "what ifs". If improvement is not seen in the next couple of weeks then we may be forced to consign this thread (and perhaps your reputation) to the dustbin.

While this may seem very harsh, I'm sure you understand that gambling and forecasting is a ruthless business and people here expect to see results; you know and hope you respect that this is a time for plain speaking.

Wish you better results next week.....sincerely.


--Week 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
--Week 2-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
9.   Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers   2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: +20.00
--Week 3--------------------------------------------------------------------------
10.  Chiefs (+3) over Eagles        2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +40.00
11.  Texans to beat Ravens          2.00     £30  lost  -30.00  New Total: +10.00
12.  Lions to beat Redskins         2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +30.00
13.  Dolphins (3) over Falcons      2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +50.00
14.  Bills (+3) over Jets           2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +30.00
15.  Steelers (+3) over Bears       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +10.00
--Week 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
16.  Houston(+2.5) over Seahawks    2.00     £40  lost  -40.00  New Total  -30.00
17.  Redskins (+3) over Raiders     2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total  -10.00
18.  Jets (+3.5)  over Titans       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -30.00
19.  Bears (+3)   over Lions        2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -50.00
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By:
Wallflower When: 01 Oct 13 10:54
Saints soften the blow of a bad week. Making the process of dusting down and getting back up again for Week 5 easier.

Total of £410 wagered.....return- is a loss of £30.......7.32% loss
20 bets......averaging £20.50 per bet.....averaging loss of £1.50 per bet.


--Week 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
--Week 2-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
9.   Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers   2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: +20.00
--Week 3--------------------------------------------------------------------------
10.  Chiefs (+3) over Eagles        2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +40.00
11.  Texans to beat Ravens          2.00     £30  lost  -30.00  New Total: +10.00
12.  Lions to beat Redskins         2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +30.00
13.  Dolphins (3) over Falcons      2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +50.00
14.  Bills (+3) over Jets           2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +30.00
15.  Steelers (+3) over Bears       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +10.00
--Week 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
16.  Houston(+2.5) over Seahawks    2.00     £40  lost  -40.00  New Total  -30.00
17.  Redskins (+3) over Raiders     2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total  -10.00
18.  Jets (+3.5)  over Titans       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -30.00
19.  Bears (+3)   over Lions        2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -50.00
20.  Saints -7)   over Dolphins     2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total  -30.00
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By:
orioles When: 01 Oct 13 20:51
9-11 ain't too bad. It ain't GOOD, but it ain't too bad.
By:
Wallflower When: 09 Oct 13 14:34
Good week - making up for last week - £85 profitHappy.

Total of £540 wagered.....return- is a profit of £85.......a reasonably healthy 15.74% profit
28 bets......averaging £19.29 per bet.....averaging profit of £3.04 per bet.



--Week 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
--Week 2-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
9.   Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers   2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: +20.00
--Week 3--------------------------------------------------------------------------
10.  Chiefs (+3) over Eagles        2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +40.00
11.  Texans to beat Ravens          2.00     £30  lost  -30.00  New Total: +10.00
12.  Lions to beat Redskins         2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +30.00
13.  Dolphins (3) over Falcons      2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +50.00
14.  Bills (+3) over Jets           2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +30.00
15.  Steelers (+3) over Bears       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +10.00
--Week 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
16.  Houston(+2.5) over Seahawks    2.00     £40  lost  -40.00  New Total  -30.00
17.  Redskins (+3) over Raiders     2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total  -10.00
18.  Jets (+3.5)  over Titans       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -30.00
19.  Bears (+3)   over Lions        2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -50.00
20.  Saints -7)   over Dolphins     2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total  -30.00
--Week 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
21.  Browns (-3)  over Bills        2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total    0.00
22.  Willis McGahee TD anytime      1.50    £10   won   +15.00  New Total  +15.00
23.  Philadelphia to beat Giants    2.00    £40   won   +40.00  New Total  +55.00
24.  Bengals (+1)  over Patriots    2.00    £30   won   +70.00  New Total  +85.00
25.  Colts (+3)   over Seahawks     2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total +105.00
26.  Packers (-7) over Lions        2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total +135.00
27.  Bronco (-7)  over Cowboys      2.00    £30   lost  -30.00  New Total +105.00
28.  Chargers (-4) over Raiders     2.00    £30   lost  -30.00  New Total  +85.00
By:
Wallflower When: 09 Oct 13 14:36
Apologies should be  £105 profit for the week..   £85 is the new overall total
By:
Wallflower When: 15 Oct 13 10:00
Small, but profit is profit - £20Happy

Total of £680 wagered.....return is a now a profit of £105.......% profit very slightly down but stable at 15.44%
33 bets......averaging £20.61 per bet.....averaging profit of £3.14 per bet.


--Week 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
--Week 2-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
9.   Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers   2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: +20.00
--Week 3--------------------------------------------------------------------------
10.  Chiefs (+3) over Eagles        2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +40.00
11.  Texans to beat Ravens          2.00     £30  lost  -30.00  New Total: +10.00
12.  Lions to beat Redskins         2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +30.00
13.  Dolphins (3) over Falcons      2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +50.00
14.  Bills (+3) over Jets           2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +30.00
15.  Steelers (+3) over Bears       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +10.00
--Week 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
16.  Houston(+2.5) over Seahawks    2.00     £40  lost  -40.00  New Total  -30.00
17.  Redskins (+3) over Raiders     2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total  -10.00
18.  Jets (+3.5)  over Titans       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -30.00
19.  Bears (+3)   over Lions        2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -50.00
20.  Saints -7)   over Dolphins     2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total  -30.00
--Week 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
21.  Browns (-3)  over Bills        2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total    0.00
22.  Willis McGahee TD anytime      1.50    £10   won   +15.00  New Total  +15.00
23.  Philadelphia to beat Giants    2.00    £40   won   +40.00  New Total  +55.00
24.  Bengals (+1)  over Patriots    2.00    £30   won   +70.00  New Total  +85.00
25.  Colts (+3)   over Seahawks     2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total +105.00
26.  Packers (-7) over Lions        2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total +135.00
27.  Bronco (-7)  over Cowboys      2.00    £30   lost  -30.00  New Total +105.00
28.  Chargers (-4) over Raiders     2.00    £30   lost  -30.00  New Total  +85.00
--Week 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
29.  Raiders (+9.5)over Chiefs      2.00    £30   lost  -30.00  New Total  +55.00
30.  Steelers (+1.5) over Jets      2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total  +85.00
31.  Jacoby Jones anytime TD        4.00    £10   won   +30.00  New Total +115.00
32.  Patriots (+1.5) over Saints    2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total +145.00
33.  Colts over Chargers            2.00    £40   lost  -40.00  New Total +105.00
By:
ClayDavis When: 15 Oct 13 11:03
Eh wallflower u missed my Cowboys bet - u will see the "Romo to rollover rusty Redskins" thread
By:
Wallflower When: 15 Oct 13 12:48
yes I did indeed Clay, apologies
By:
Wallflower When: 15 Oct 13 12:53
RevisedHappy

Good profit this week - £50

Total of £710 wagered.....return is a now a profit of £135.......% profit is up at a very respectable 19.01%
34 bets......averaging £20.88 per bet.....averaging profit of £3.97 per bet.


--Week 1-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.   Ravens to beat Broncos         3.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -10.00
2.   Redskins to beat Eagles        1.45     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -20.00
3.   Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets  2.00     £10  lost  -10.00  New Total: -30.00
--Week 2-------------------------------------------------------------------------
4.   Saints (-3) over Bucs          2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -50.00
5.   Packers(-7) over Redskins      2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: -20.00
6.   Falcons(-5) over Rams          2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total:   0.00
7.   Chargers(+7)over Eagles        2.00     £10  won   +10.00  New Total: +10.00
8.   Giants (+4.5)over Broncos      2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: -10.00
9.   Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers   2.00     £30  won   +30.00  New Total: +20.00
--Week 3--------------------------------------------------------------------------
10.  Chiefs (+3) over Eagles        2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +40.00
11.  Texans to beat Ravens          2.00     £30  lost  -30.00  New Total: +10.00
12.  Lions to beat Redskins         2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +30.00
13.  Dolphins (3) over Falcons      2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total: +50.00
14.  Bills (+3) over Jets           2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +30.00
15.  Steelers (+3) over Bears       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total: +10.00
--Week 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
16.  Houston(+2.5) over Seahawks    2.00     £40  lost  -40.00  New Total  -30.00
17.  Redskins (+3) over Raiders     2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total  -10.00
18.  Jets (+3.5)  over Titans       2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -30.00
19.  Bears (+3)   over Lions        2.00     £20  lost  -20.00  New Total  -50.00
20.  Saints -7)   over Dolphins     2.00     £20  won   +20.00  New Total  -30.00
--Week 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
21.  Browns (-3)  over Bills        2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total    0.00
22.  Willis McGahee TD anytime      1.50    £10   won   +15.00  New Total  +15.00
23.  Philadelphia to beat Giants    2.00    £40   won   +40.00  New Total  +55.00
24.  Bengals (+1)  over Patriots    2.00    £30   won   +70.00  New Total  +85.00
25.  Colts (+3)   over Seahawks     2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total +105.00
26.  Packers (-7) over Lions        2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total +135.00
27.  Bronco (-7)  over Cowboys      2.00    £30   lost  -30.00  New Total +105.00
28.  Chargers (-4) over Raiders     2.00    £30   lost  -30.00  New Total  +85.00
--Week 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
29.  Raiders (+9.5)over Chiefs      2.00    £30   lost  -30.00  New Total  +55.00
30.  Steelers (+1.5) over Jets      2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total  +85.00
31.  Jacoby Jones anytime TD        4.00    £10   won   +30.00  New Total +115.00
32.  Patriots (+1.5) over Saints    2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total +145.00
33.  Cowboys (-5.5) over Redskins   2.00    £30   won   +30.00  New Total +175.00
34.  Colts over Chargers            2.00    £30   lost  -30.00  New Total +135.00
By:
inner city sumo When: 16 Oct 13 15:42
Going well. Keep it up, good % return so far.

I think Bet 22 should only be worth £5 though- £10 on a 1.5 shot would return £5 profit not £15.

I think you might have the return on Bet 24 wrong, but the total is correct at that point.
By:
Whisperingdeath When: 16 Oct 13 16:04
Clay walks the walk and talks the talk.

After week one I wanted to give him a wheel chair but appreciate anybody who bother to put forward their argument rather than just wants an argument.  like viagra Clay, keep it up.


oh and shhhhiiiiiiiittttttttttteeeeeeeeee!
By:
Wallflower When: 16 Oct 13 22:57
Thanks inner city sumo - both actually typos - good to have someone check them.

I'll amend next week as part of week 7 update.

I'm only keeping  "rough" figure. Clay's doing quite well. I decided to monitor as we all know we have these "tipsters" on most forums - who let everyone know when the "guess" correctly.......and conveniently forget their dismal preceding picks. I expected Clay to the same given a certain "brashness"Happy in his early predictions. But in fairness I see the logic in the explanation of his picks and I tend to generally agree beforehand (but I'm very much an in-play trader).
By:
Swardean When: 22 Oct 13 08:45
Wallflower did something change between week 4 and week 5.  It seems that clay's "big bets" seem to have been settled as £30 wins when previously we were working (as your post at the start of the thread).

Amounts as per other thread...(10 medium,  20 big, 30 huge).

This will revise, the week 5 and 6 figures or did we agree to change the terms?
By:
Wallflower When: 22 Oct 13 10:18
Mmm, could very well be.....I think small was introduced and I may have taken a short-cut

so, it should be   10 = small;  20 = medium; 30 = big;  40 = huge.

I was only keeping it "roughly" as I said - but I've been toying with the idea of just putting into a spreadsheet and doing it exactly. It might be easier - I wasn't really expecting the number of bets.

I'll revise today and re-check entries using a spreadsheet - it will be more efficient in the long run. Thx.
By:
Swardean When: 22 Oct 13 11:47
Yes it looks a bit complicated but if we are tracking it we should track it properly.   The scoring scale (as agreed at the top of the thread after the level stakes of week 1) were (10 medium,  20 big, 30 huge).

Things look like they got mixed up in Week 4 when Clay introduced an "ENORMOUS" bet (which you then (correctly set at £40).   I think we should stick to this agreed scale.  I am not sure there has been any small bets has there?  If so, working on the original scale this should be £5.

Good luck working it all out wallflower... or better still forget it, probably not worth the hassle.
By:
Wallflower When: 22 Oct 13 15:03
How do insert or cut and paste a spreadsheet on here?Confused
By:
Swardean When: 22 Oct 13 20:55
Not sure, think you may need to export to delimited file format and then paste the text?
By:
Wallflower When: 23 Oct 13 11:29
Swardean,

Yep, all a bit messed-up, got the scoring scale wrong after week 4.  I've re-done it from scratch - with agreed scale and exact odds (I've also included a redskins/Eagles overs winning bet that wasn't included originally, didn't bother as I thought it was offset by giving evens for 10/11 shots.

So Clay as per original:-

2 = tiny bet (haven't had any of these, just place holder if you fancy something - e.g. Giants win S'bowl etc)
5 = small bet (logical)
10 = medium/standard bet, or where no indication is given (default)
20 = big bet
30 = huge bet
40 = enormous bet
50 = maximum bet (there has been none, just setting a place-holder for it)

Alternatively you can specify an individual amount e.g. 24, 14, 32 etc

These "amounts" don't matter so much - people have different size banks. The % profit/loss is probably a better indicator.
By:
Wallflower When: 23 Oct 13 11:53
Week 1______Bet________________________Balance___Stake__Odds____Result__Win/Loss___New Bal____Tot.Stake__% Return
1.  Ravens to beat Broncos             -        10.00     2.00    Loss    -10.00        -10.00      10.00       -100.00%
2.  Redskins to beat Eagles            -10.00      10.00     1.45    Loss    -10.00        -20.00      20.00       -100.00%
3.  Redskin / Eagles overs            -20.00      10.00     2.00    Win     10.00        -10.00      30.00        -33.33%
4.  Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets      -10.00      10.00     2.10    Loss    -10.00        -20.00      40.00        -50.00%
Week 2______Bet________________________Balance___Stake__Odds____Result__Win/Loss___New Bal____Tot.Stake__% Return
5.  Saints (-3) over Bucs              -20.00      20.00     2.00    Loss    -20.00        -40.00      60.00       -66.67%
6.  Packers(-7) over Redskins          -40.00      30.00     2.00    Win     30.00        -10.00      90.00        -11.11%
7.  Falcons(-5) over Rams               -10.00      20.00     2.00    Win     20.00         10.00     110.00        9.09%
8.  Chargers(+7)over Eagles             10.00      10.00     2.00    Win     10.00         20.00     120.00       16.67%
9.  Giants (+4.5)over Broncos          20.00      20.00     2.00    Loss    -20.00          -        140.00        0.00%
10. Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers        -        30.00     2.00    Win     30.00         30.00     170.00       17.65%
Week 3______Bet________________________Balance___Stake__Odds____Result__Win/Loss___New Bal____Tot.Stake__% Return
11. Chiefs (+3) over Eagles              30.00      20.00     2.00    Win     20.00         50.00     190.00       26.32%
12. Texans to beat Ravens               50.00      30.00     1.83    Loss    -30.00         20.00     220.00        9.09%
13. Lions to beat Redskins               20.00      20.00     1.90    Win     18.00         38.00     240.00       15.83%
14. Dolphins (3) over Falcons           38.00      20.00     2.05    Win     21.00         59.00     260.00       22.69%
15. Bills (+3) over Jets                59.00      20.00     1.83    Loss    -20.00         39.00     280.00       13.93%
16. Steelers (+3) over Bears           39.00      20.00     1.80    Loss    -20.00         19.00     300.00        6.33%
Week 4______Bet________________________Balance___Stake__Odds____Result__Win/Loss___New Bal____Tot.Stake__% Return
17. Houston(+2.5) over Seahawks         19.00      40.00     1.90    Loss    -40.00        -21.00     340.00       -6.18%
18. Redskins (-3) over Raiders         -21.00      20.00     1.83    Win     16.60         -4.40     360.00       -1.22%
19. Jets (+3.5)  over Titans          -4.40      20.00     1.83    Loss    -20.00        -24.40     380.00       -6.42%
20. Bears (+3)   over Lions            -24.40      20.00     1.83    Loss    -20.00        -44.40     400.00      -11.10%
21. Saints (-7)   over Dolphins         -44.40      20.00     1.90    Win     18.00        -26.40     420.00       -6.29%
Week 5______Bet________________________Balance___Stake__Odds____Result__Win/Loss___New Bal____Tot.Stake__% Return
22. Browns (-3)  over Bills            -26.40      20.00     1.80    Win     16.00        -10.40     440.00       -2.36%
23. Willis McGahee TD anytime          -10.40      5.00     2.63    Win     8.15         -2.25     445.00       -0.51%
24. Philadelphia to beat Giants        -2.25      30.00     2.25    Win     37.50         35.25     475.00        7.42%
25. Bengals (+1)  over Patriots         35.25      20.00     1.90    Win     18.00         53.25     495.00       10.76%
26. Colts (+3)   over Seahawks          53.25      20.00     1.90    Win     18.00         71.25     515.00       13.83%
27. Packers (-7) over Lions             71.25      20.00     1.83    Win     16.60         87.85     535.00       16.42%
28. Bronco (-7)  over Cowboys           87.85      20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         67.85     555.00       12.23%
29. Chargers (-4) over Raiders          67.85      20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         47.85     575.00        8.32%
Week 6______Bet________________________Balance___Stake__Odds____Result__Win/Loss___New Bal____Tot.Stake__% Return
30. Raiders (+9.5)over Chiefs           47.85      20.00     1.80    Loss    -20.00         27.85     595.00        4.68%
31. Steelers (+1.5) over Jets           27.85      20.00     1.90    Win     18.00         45.85     615.00        7.46%
32. Jacoby Jones anytime TD            45.85      5.00     4.00    Win     15.00         60.85     620.00        9.81%
33. Patriots (+1.5) over Saints         60.85      20.00     1.90    Win     18.00         78.85     640.00       12.32%
34. Cowboys (-5.5) over Redskins      78.85      20.00     1.90    Win     18.00         96.85     660.00       14.67%
35. Colts over Chargers                 96.85      30.00     1.90    Loss    -30.00         66.85     690.00        9.69%
Week 7______Bet________________________Balance___Stake__Odds____Result__Win/Loss___New Bal____Tot.Stake__% Return
36. Cardinals (+6) over Seahwaks     66.85      20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         46.85     710.00        6.60%
37. Redskins to beat Bears             46.85      20.00     1.90    Win     18.00         64.85     730.00        8.88%
38. Over 55.5 pts Cowboys@Eagles     64.85      20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         44.85     750.00        5.98%
39. Ravens (+2.5) over Steelers             44.85      20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         24.85     770.00        3.23%
40. Texans(+6) over Chiefs             24.85      20.00     1.90    Win     18.00         42.85     790.00        5.42%
41. Broncos(-6) over Colts             42.85      20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         22.85     810.00        2.82%
By:
Wallflower When: 23 Oct 13 11:54
Mmmm, just working on an easier formatting.

Percentage profit  is 2.82%.Plain.....
By:
Swardean When: 23 Oct 13 12:06
Wow, wallflower good stuff... you have more time on your hands than me.   

Also Week 7 additional (he did in his own headline thread on Monday)...  BIG BET ON THE VIKINGS +3.5 at 5-6
By:
Wallflower When: 23 Oct 13 12:33
Hopefully better formatting...don't know for sure until I post. Think I'm up-to-date now (cost me, taking my concentration away from the cricket, I'm 7% redSad). Thx, Swardean (if I get it right now, its not a big deal to keep it exact from now on).

Well, as can be seen we have profit of the princely sum of £2.85 for a total of £830 stakedPlain....% profit return of 0.34%.

Not inspiring by any means, that's leaving aside possible commission - which I'll put into the spreadsheet that I now use.
Clay......must do better.

Week 1      Bet                       Balance   Stake     Odds   Result   Win/Loss     New Bal    Tot.Stake     % Return
1.  Ravens to beat Broncos             -        10.00    2.00    Loss    -10.00        -10.00      10.00       -100.00%
2.  Redskins to beat Eagles           -10.00    10.00    1.45    Loss    -10.00        -20.00      20.00       -100.00%
3.  Redskin / Eagles overs            -20.00    10.00    2.00    Win      10.00        -10.00      30.00        -33.33%
4.  Patriots (-13.5) to beat Jets     -10.00   10.00     2.10    Loss    -10.00        -20.00      40.00        -50.00%
Week 2      Bet                       Balance   Stake     Odds   Result   Win/Loss     New Bal    Tot.Stake     % Return
5.  Saints (-3) over Bucs             -20.00   20.00     2.00    Loss    -20.00        -40.00      60.00       -66.67%
6.  Packers(-7) over Redskins         -40.00   30.00     2.00    Win      30.00        -10.00      90.00        -11.11%
7.  Falcons(-5) over Rams             -10.00   20.00     2.00    Win      20.00         10.00     110.00        9.09%
8.  Chargers(+7)over Eagles            10.00   10.00     2.00    Win      10.00         20.00     120.00       16.67%
9.  Giants (+4.5)over Broncos          20.00   20.00     2.00    Loss    -20.00          -        140.00        0.00%
10. Bengals (-6.5) over Steelers        -      30.00     2.00    Win     30.00         30.00      170.00       17.65%
Week 3      Bet                       Balance   Stake     Odds   Result   Win/Loss     New Bal    Tot.Stake     % Return
11. Chiefs (+3) over Eagles            30.00   20.00     2.00    Win      20.00         50.00     190.00       26.32%
12. Texans to beat Ravens              50.00   30.00     1.83    Loss    -30.00         20.00     220.00        9.09%
13. Lions to beat Redskins             20.00   20.00     1.90    Win      18.00         38.00     240.00       15.83%
14. Dolphins (3) over Falcons          38.00   20.00     2.05    Win      21.00         59.00     260.00       22.69%
15. Bills (+3) over Jets               59.00   20.00     1.83    Loss    -20.00         39.00     280.00       13.93%
16. Steelers (+3) over Bears           39.00   20.00     1.80    Loss    -20.00         19.00     300.00        6.33%
Week 4      Bet                       Balance   Stake     Odds   Result   Win/Loss     New Bal    Tot.Stake     % Return
17. Houston(+2.5) over Seahawks         19.00   40.00     1.90    Loss    -40.00        -21.00     340.00       -6.18%
18. Redskins (-3) over Raiders         -21.00   20.00     1.83    Win      16.60         -4.40     360.00       -1.22%
19. Jets (+3.5)  over Titans            -4.40   20.00     1.83    Loss    -20.00        -24.40     380.00       -6.42%
20. Bears (+3)   over Lions            -24.40   20.00     1.83    Loss    -20.00        -44.40     400.00      -11.10%
21. Saints (-7)   over Dolphins        -44.40   20.00     1.90    Win      18.00        -26.40     420.00       -6.29%
Week 5      Bet                       Balance   Stake     Odds   Result   Win/Loss     New Bal    Tot.Stake     % Return
22. Browns (-3)  over Bills            -26.40   20.00     1.80    Win      16.00        -10.40     440.00       -2.36%
23. Willis McGahee TD anytime          -10.40    5.00     2.63    Win      8.15         -2.25      445.00       -0.51%
24. Philadelphia to beat Giants        -2.25    30.00     2.25    Win      37.50         35.25     475.00        7.42%
25. Bengals (+1)  over Patriots         35.25   20.00     1.90    Win      18.00         53.25     495.00       10.76%
26. Colts (+3)   over Seahawks          53.25   20.00     1.90    Win      18.00         71.25     515.00       13.83%
27. Packers (-7) over Lions             71.25   20.00     1.83    Win      16.60         87.85     535.00       16.42%
28. Bronco (-7)  over Cowboys           87.85   20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         67.85     555.00       12.23%
29. Chargers (-4) over Raiders          67.85   20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         47.85     575.00        8.32%
Week 6      Bet                       Balance   Stake     Odds   Result   Win/Loss     New Bal    Tot.Stake     % Return
30. Raiders (+9.5)over Chiefs           47.85   20.00     1.80    Loss    -20.00         27.85     595.00        4.68%
31. Steelers (+1.5) over Jets           27.85   20.00     1.90    Win      18.00         45.85     615.00        7.46%
32. Jacoby Jones anytime TD             45.85    5.00     4.00    Win      15.00         60.85     620.00        9.81%
33. Patriots (+1.5) over Saints         60.85   20.00     1.90    Win      18.00         78.85     640.00       12.32%
34. Cowboys (-5.5) over Redskins        78.85   20.00     1.90    Win      18.00         96.85     660.00       14.67%
35. Colts over Chargers                 96.85   30.00     1.90    Loss    -30.00         66.85     690.00        9.69%
Week 7      Bet                       Balance   Stake     Odds   Result   Win/Loss     New Bal    Tot.Stake     % Return
36. Cardinals (+6) over Seahawks        66.85   20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         46.85     710.00        6.60%
37. Redskins to beat Bears              46.85   20.00     1.90    Win      18.00         64.85     730.00        8.88%
38. Over 55.5 pts Cowboys@Eagles        64.85   20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         44.85     750.00        5.98%
39. Ravens (+2.5) over Steelers         44.85   20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         24.85     770.00        3.23%
40. Texans(+6) over Chiefs              24.85   20.00     1.90    Win      18.00         42.85     790.00        5.42%
41. Broncos(-6) over Colts              42.85   20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00         22.85     810.00        2.82%
42. Vikings(+3.5) over Giants           22.85   20.00     1.90    Loss    -20.00          2.85     830.00        0.34%
By:
Swardean When: 23 Oct 13 18:29
I think that is harsh Wallflower, to be in positive figures after so many bets factoring in the 10% book margin is pretty good going IMO.

Certainly a massive improvement for Clay against last years forum posts.
By:
Beaniash When: 23 Oct 13 19:07
Laugh
By:
ClayDavis When: 24 Oct 13 09:48
Swardean - you are forgetting the Argie football Cool
By:
HowieTheRookie. When: 24 Oct 13 10:23
Question is, are the Panthers tonight a Maximum Bet or simply an Enormous bet ??

One of the NFL's most underated teams, on a hot streak up against a total dog who dumped their QB a week ago Cry
By:
Swardean When: 24 Oct 13 11:05
Clay, I don't really bother with English footy nevermind the South American stuff  but sometimes look in to pass the time before an NFL or NHL game.   I see you post regularly on this and seem to do quite well?  Indeed have a bit of a following over on the football forum
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