North American
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Only 7 games left 
Sat 21:30 - Ravens @ Broncos -9.0, 45.5pts
Sun 01:00 - Packers @ 49ers -3.0, 45.0pts
Sun 18:00 - Seahawks @ Falcons -2.5, 45.5pts
Sun 21:30 - Texans @ Patriots -9.0, 48.0pts
At first glance at the spreads etc, Patriots -9.0 is the only one I like. However I am concerned about the fact that they played earlier in the season. IMO (no stats to back this up), teams who met earlier in the season tend to play a closer game in the playoffs than the regular season game. Also the Patriots have only covered the spread once from their last 6 home Playoff games. Sometimes I feel that they are priced up as the 2007 Patriots, even 5 years later, because the Books know that people will bet them at those odds.
Sat 21:30 - Ravens @ Broncos -9.0, 45.5pts
Sun 01:00 - Packers @ 49ers -3.0, 45.0pts
Sun 18:00 - Seahawks @ Falcons -2.5, 45.5pts
Sun 21:30 - Texans @ Patriots -9.0, 48.0pts
At first glance at the spreads etc, Patriots -9.0 is the only one I like. However I am concerned about the fact that they played earlier in the season. IMO (no stats to back this up), teams who met earlier in the season tend to play a closer game in the playoffs than the regular season game. Also the Patriots have only covered the spread once from their last 6 home Playoff games. Sometimes I feel that they are priced up as the 2007 Patriots, even 5 years later, because the Books know that people will bet them at those odds.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,890
|
By:
The Texans are the worst side left in the playoffs IMO (in poor form and struggled to put points on the board against the Bengals at home). A spread of 9 looks about right to me.
|
|
By:
As for the other matches, who knows.
This next weekend is the best of the entire season for competitive matches between decent teams. 9ers for the Superbowl. |
|
By:
im going big on the ravens with that line.
i even think the ravens will win. |
|
By:
I still like the Seahawks. I can see NE rolling the Texans, but anything above -7.0 makes me uneasy.
Gonna need to do a lot more homework this week. |
|
By:
I think gap between the SB and baseball is the worst sporting time of the year. Without doubt September thru to SB is the best.
|
|
By:
It's not too bad for me cos I like the build-up to Cheltenham & Aintree and the start of the Flat season up to Royal Ascot. From RA to NFL is quite boring though. It's not as if you can get out and enjoy the summer weather!
|
|
By:
I like Cheltenham and Aintree and that's it really, the flat does nothing for me. I'm a massive cricket fan, so with the ashes coming up that's my summer sorted, lots of one day and T20 action too, T20 markets go mental by the ball it seems, plenty of trade opps there.
I had a cracking Euro's last year, but of course it's an odd numbered year so football is dead this summer. |
|
By:
I'd have to agree with the general consensus that of two teams on on the same line I'd definitely want to be on the Ravens rather than the Texans.
|
|
By:
Of the four spreads i would go with
Ravens + 9 (agree with d13 and wouldn't be shocked if the Ravens actually won, Defence was very smart last week against the Colts not giving up any big plays over the top, bigger test this week obviously) Packers + 3 (would love +3.5 so might have to leave this as think it will be close but fancy the Packers to win if Rogers is given enough time by his offensive line) Falcons - 2.5 (I fancy them to win this in tidy fashion, they are an underated team at home, if the Seahawks were at home then i would have backed them on the spread, basically home field advantage will win this match up in my opinion) Patriots - 9.0 (putting the stats to once side i fancy the Pats to turn it on here agasint a solid Texans side but think their inability to score touchdowns in the redzone will kill them in this match up) |
|
By:
Marcia and those WR's, and BB with two weeks to come up with a game plan against that secondary?
Oh dear. |
|
By:
After a great NFL punting weekend last weekend. I really like all the underdogs this week. Three of them with my head and one of them with my heart (Seattle).
However the only bets I am having are:- Texans +9 (NAP) Ravens +9.5 (NB) - Managed to great Good Luck all. |
|
By:
*Managed to get early line
|
|
By:
I expect the Texans to shock the Patriots. Have not been convinced by NE for a number of years now and I just feel all the anti Houston feeling could inspire them to an excellent performance, possibly falling short at the end, but I certainly expect it to be close for three quarters. The Texans are the same side that started off so impressively, and if they keep it tight and establish the run, New England look in trouble.
Also feel that the Packers and Seahawks are being ridiculously over-rated. 1.8 for the favourites looks massive. Have not been a Kaepernick fan at all, and I do feel that he is the weakest link, but I think more respect needs to be offered to a SF side who dominated GB in week 1. Meanwhile, Seattle are the apple of everyone's eye, but their road performances this year offer little comfort and with a suspect pass rush depleted further by Clemons being out, I expect Atlanta to be able to control the game and have a solid enough D to hold Seattle's O in check on the way to a routine victory. |
|
By:
couple of stats from walterfootball site
Non-divisional teams that beat an opponent in the regular season and then meet them at the same site in the playoffs are 12-26 against the spread since 2002. If they won by 17 or more in the previous meeting, they are 2-5 against the spread in the postseason |
|
By:
^ very interesting, thanks
|
|
By:
Interesting, but again that stat tells us nothing about the actual game being played.
|
|
By:
Have to agree with Dirk while them stats maybe interesting to some, they have mean nothing and have no bearing on the actual games to be played.... maybe some use them for betting but I don't understand how anyone can profit from them but each to their own.
"The Real Moaner" imo the Texans are not the same side that started of so impressively , they have lost Brian Cushing which has affected them massively. Can't wait for the action to start now especially the Packers @ 49ers  |
|
By:
*they mean nothing
|
|
By:
Just throw in a few def rankings ATL vs Seattle.
Sacks SEATTLE - 18TH ATL - 29TH Total defense SEATTLE - 4TH ATL - 24TH Scoring defense SEATTLE - 1ST ATL - 5TH Run defense SEA - 10TH ATL - 21ST Pass defense SEA - 6TH ATL - 23RD |
|
By:
No-one is saying that you should bet the stats blind but where they are both interesting and useful is that can help in identifying potential trap lines. As we all know, Vegas doesn't put out lines that they think are a fair representation of the game in question but are hopefully going to balance their book better than others. So in games where 2 teams have already played earlier in the season, it is highly likely that Vegas is going to inflate the line slightly as more squares (to use Vegas terminology) will be interested in going with the favourite to cover the spread. More so when one team blew the other one out of the water in the first game.
Other ones I have mentioned in the past are 1. Divisional matchups where the underdog is a double-digit favourite. Dogs are 53-36-2 over the past 6 seasons, incl 9-7 this year. 2. Road favs when coming off a Bye week. The Favs are 37-16-1 since 2002 with this stat, incl 3-3 in 2012. Apart from this, there is very little benefit in coming off a Bye, in terms of betting ATS 3. The issue of West Coast teams travelling to the East Coast is vastly overstated. Since 2005 there have been 118 matches like this. The Road teams are 56-62-0 ATS which would indicate that there is no issue at all. In fact the split is 59-59-0 for Favs/Dogs. Even for the 1pm kick-offs, the road team is only 41-49-0 ATS IMO you would be mad to ignore those stats in situations like the above. Personally if I fancied a team to go against one of those stats, I would be more inclined to swerve the game entirely than place my bet. |
|
By:
Each to their own db1974 and there is no doubt you put a lot of effort into the stats and obviously helps you when determining to place a bet or not etc.... just not for me though , most of them stats mean feck all when determining how or if I place a bet.
The Eagles where never beaten coming off a bye week ( I may be wrong here ) under Andy Reid before this year. They were beaten after their bye week this year. Best of luck with your betting still and we both might end up in profit but by going different ways  |
|
By:
You are correct about the Eagles (I think it was Andy Reid more specifically) who lost after something like 14 straight victories after a Bye. But no-one (or no stat) can get 100% winners. All you can do is try to make a profit. I am very wary of unbeaten stats (like Peyton Manning is 9-0 against the Ravens).
Best of luck yourself with whatever you go with and I'm sure we will all end up in profit anyway, sure everyone on Betfair does! |
|
By:
1. Divisional matchups where the underdog is a double-digit favourite. Dogs are 53-36-2 over the past 6 seasons, incl 9-7 this year.
>>>DB what's this mean? I think the trouble with trend type stats is that if you tweaked them a bit you'd get different results, and also what's the context here? are we surprised that vegas gets the line right most of the time? Also I think your 41-49 is actually significant, that's what 15-20% in favor of the East Coast team? I just think every game in a completely unique event and as such, the variables are so different every time, am I going to value long-term trend type stats over what i think of the game being played today? Never in a million years. If you're going to find a long-term stat that is so telling, then back it blind. It can be about a bad spot for a team, look at SFG getting mauled in Seattle, are they that much better? of course not, but SFG flew East then to Seattle off a massive game on a bad field in which they chased shadows for an entire half, Seattle were at home well rested off easy wins and blew them away in 15 minutes. SFG just weren't able to show up that day Any trend you can think of is not going to inform me of that in advance, neither can I look at that stat and see bad spots. When I'm sat watching the other team murder my selection because I've used a long term trend against what I thought about the game played today (and I have done that) I am sat there thinking 'You are a cretin'. That's a feeling I can't have - if I call a game wrong, I can live with that. Relying on some pretty abstract stat doesn't work for me. |
|
By:
No easy games left now to pick but I think it will turn out something like this
Broncos beat Ravens Pats beat Texans Seahawks beat Falcons And Packers beat 49'ers Pats beat broncos Packers beat Seahawks Pats beat Packers. |
|
By:
Joined: 06 Dec 07 | Topic/replies: 2,581 | Blogger: The real Moaner's blog
I expect the Texans to shock the Patriots. Have not been convinced by NE for a number of years now and I just feel all the anti Houston feeling could inspire them to an excellent performance Do you not think the anti houston feeling would have inspired them to try and get them a bye and homefield advantage  |
|
By:
dlarssonf 10 Jan 13 10:40 Joined: 05 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 6,824 | Blogger: dlarssonf's blog
Have to agree with Dirk while them stats maybe interesting to some, they have mean nothing and have no bearing on the actual games to be played.... maybe some use them for betting but I don't understand how anyone can profit from them but each to their own. ^ Always knew you were a wise operator....srichipan will flip when he sees this post  dont disrespect the stats  |
|
By:
Stats don't give answers they merely provoke more questions
 |
|
By:
Yep Harry S & A loves them
|
|
By:
Like it hayden
|
|
By:
I think if you're gonna follow long term stats like the ones mentioned earlier, then you've got to back the trend blind or I can't see the edge.
db no disrespect meant at all, I wasn't having a go at you, I just wonder about the value of this type of turned stat in context of one game. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Surely the bet of the year so far is the Falcons, Seahawks won last week on the strength of the opposition rolling over after only one Quarter. The redskins were so superior in the 1st 1/4 and then they just didn't exist. Don't like knocking any winners but as a neutral observer with no interest in last weeks game I credit Washington losing this one more than Seahawks winning it. I know injuries didn't help but it seemed when RG3 got injuried it seemed as the whole Washington Squad including coaches got a mental block. Falcons will surely contest 4 quarters and do enough.
|
|
By:
Swardean - Pats are ok against the run - they stopped Foster last time. And if Texans get behind in the score they will get mauled as they will have to rely on going through the air and like last time it won't happen. The Bengals had a load of dropped catches last week and were very very poor imo
|
|
By:
Stick ur stats where the sun don't shine! If u want to make money gambling look for ability, composure and b@lls and with that in mind look no further than messrs Rodgers, Brady, Wilson and manning to overcome kapernick, Schaub , Ryan and flacco.!
|
|
By:
Bet of the year against a team on a 8 win winning streak with one of the best defenses in football baN? Good luck with that
|
|
By:
im p1ssed up and i have just put a sizeable amount on the ravens and the texans straight up
will be amazed if neither kop tbh |
|
By:
^^^^^
Completely with you d13, however so far, I have only played the handicaps. At least one SU is a MAJOR possibility. Hope hangover not too bad this morning! |
|
By:
Interesting thread (as ever) - so refreshing to get some 'proper' analysis. D13 - why do you think the Ravens can win in Denver?
|
|
By:
By the way D13 - you were correct about the Redskins last w/end, all I'll say is that I would've loved to have seen how the game unfolded had RGIII not blown up (and yea, I know that was factored into your analysis
). So, the Ravens... (!!!??) |