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'It's the most wonderful time of the year'
NFL divisional round playoffs, and the NCAAF championship game on tap.
Anyone else going to be staying up for this? Alabama on the brink of a dynasty, against the unbeaten golden domers. Two of college footballs greatest teams square off.
ALABAMA -9.5
OVERS 41.5
NFL divisional round playoffs, and the NCAAF championship game on tap.
Anyone else going to be staying up for this? Alabama on the brink of a dynasty, against the unbeaten golden domers. Two of college footballs greatest teams square off.
ALABAMA -9.5
OVERS 41.5
Show More
wont be staying up but i have liked Notre Dame all year.
they are a serious team who have beaten everybody in their way this year.
they are a serious team who have beaten everybody in their way this year.
Whatever about the outright surely 10 points is too much for Alabama to be spotting the Irish. Surely it will be a tight enough game until the end I would have thought.
I think it's too many too, really.
I think 'Bama will prevail in the end, their run game will eventually wear ND down like it did Georgia. Might be more points than people expect as well.
I think 'Bama will prevail in the end, their run game will eventually wear ND down like it did Georgia. Might be more points than people expect as well.
Two tough defenses - 9.5 is a lot of points to give in that scenario. I think the SEC dominance is playing here - I'll take the points.
these guys have had quite a bit of rest so i cant see this ND defence getting worn down much
i think this comes down to whether ND move the ball and whether Bama can limit Teo's damage. If they can't limit Teo this is going to be a very long game for Bama.
Notre Dame have been the better team all season and I think if anything I have learnt from Bowl weeks, is that the bookies dont know how to price it up
i think this comes down to whether ND move the ball and whether Bama can limit Teo's damage. If they can't limit Teo this is going to be a very long game for Bama.
Notre Dame have been the better team all season and I think if anything I have learnt from Bowl weeks, is that the bookies dont know how to price it up
These guys have had quite a bit of rest so i cant see this ND defence getting worn down much
>>>Not sure that's applicable really, that rest won't help if they're out on their feet the way Georgia were. They'll be healthier, but they'll still wear down the same. I am a Bama fan but I will not throw money away on my team for the sake of it, anyone who read me beating up on the Steelers weeks and weeks ago will know that. I'm more than happy to bet the other side, you have to seperate head from heart. I routinely faded the Mets last summer when I knew they'd crumble like they always do before the AS break.
Anyway, I think 9.5 is a hell of a lot, if I could get -7.0 I'd bet Bama.
>>>Not sure that's applicable really, that rest won't help if they're out on their feet the way Georgia were. They'll be healthier, but they'll still wear down the same. I am a Bama fan but I will not throw money away on my team for the sake of it, anyone who read me beating up on the Steelers weeks and weeks ago will know that. I'm more than happy to bet the other side, you have to seperate head from heart. I routinely faded the Mets last summer when I knew they'd crumble like they always do before the AS break.
Anyway, I think 9.5 is a hell of a lot, if I could get -7.0 I'd bet Bama.
Hi Orioles,
Any thoughts on laying short-priced baseball teams as a strategy?
I did well last year following streaks, both lose and win, looking for another strategy to add to my armoury.
Any thoughts on laying short-priced baseball teams as a strategy?
I did well last year following streaks, both lose and win, looking for another strategy to add to my armoury.
Dirk
Anyway, I think 9.5 is a hell of a lot, if I could get -7.0 I'd bet Bama.
That's a pretty precise view Dirk & makes me think Alabama to win between 7-12 inclusive in the winning margin market may appeal to you for smaller stakes ...19/5 with bet365
Good luck mate whatever you play
Anyway, I think 9.5 is a hell of a lot, if I could get -7.0 I'd bet Bama.
That's a pretty precise view Dirk & makes me think Alabama to win between 7-12 inclusive in the winning margin market may appeal to you for smaller stakes ...19/5 with bet365
Good luck mate whatever you play
THE WAY THIS YEARS BOWL GAMES HAVE BEEN SHAPING UP WOULDNT SURPRISE ME 1 BIT IF BAMA GETS SMACKED BUT I THINK 6 WEEKS TO PREPARE FOR BAMA IS A SCARY PROPOSITION FOR DAME BOYS.
Hi Dirk
It's the only way to make baseball pay imo. I always look for 1.75 as a cut off. As you say, streaks are very powerful.
Consider, 'over the long term, MLB underdogs beat favorites about 4 games out of 9 (or 44% of the time). Even with moneyline odds on underdogs earning you better than even money, you need to rack up better than a record of 4 wins and 5 losses every day to make substantial profits.'
'A seven year study of baseball results produced the following winning percentages and betting results:
Underdogs: 6917-9644 -153 units
Favorites: 9619-6891 -641 units
Even though the favorites won at a healthy 58.3% clip, bettors who backed only the favorites would lose four times as much as a bettor who backed only underdogs.'
The trick of course is knowing when to bet the dog!
One system ...
Betting Underdogs
1) The first thing you want to do is pull up the odds for a given day and eliminate any games in which a team is listed at above 2.50 on the moneyline. More times than not when a team is listed at 2.50 or higher to win a game, there is a pretty good chance the favorite is going to win the game. By eliminating this option, you will save yourself money by avoiding the temptation of betting on huge dogs.
2) After you have got rid of the monster dogs, you want to eliminate any underdogs who have lost three or more games in a row heading into the game, or any underdog who is facing a favorite that has won three or more in a row. This allows you to avoid getting caught up on an underdog who isn’t playing very well or going up against a favorite who is red hot.
3) The final thing you want to do is eliminate any team that is facing one of the top 20 pitchers. The top pitchers in the game will win more times than not, and avoiding going up against these aces is a smart play. While many websites will rank pitchers, the one that has been of the most value for this system is Jeff Sagarin’s Ratings of USA today.
4) Place your bets on the underdogs left.
Other systems ...
High Scoring Favorites System
Bettors still tend to over-react a bit to the previous game and naturally like to bet the favorites, so this system looks to take advantage of both situations. It's shown a healthy profit, despite a low winning percentage, so obviously it will be on a lot of bigger underdogs.
Since the start of the 2010 season, home favorites off a win in which they scored six or more runs are 378-287, which is a winning percentage of roughly 57 percent. But those teams are favored by an average price of -155, which makes them a terrible betting proposition.
On the other side of the equation, taking the opposite side at an average price of +145 would show a profit of 24.30 units since the start of the 2010 season, which is solid for such an easy to use method.
That's all there is to it. Simply take away underdogs playing an opponent who is off a victory in which they scored six or more runs.
Obviously this method will yield quite a few plays and is for those who like lots of action. If history repeats itself, you'll also be up a fair amount at the end of the year.
Series Starter System
The situation we're looking for are teams off a win in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and are now at home in the first game of a new series. We'll look to bet against these teams.
Because the team is at home they'll more often that not be the favorite and since they're coming off a win in which they hit the ball fairly well, the line may be slightly inflated. It doesn't matter if the game in which they won with the 10 or more hits was at home or away. All we're looking for is a qualifying win.
The Yearly Breakdown
2009 74-84 +505
2010 88-85 +2536
2010 30-28 +773
The game in question could have been played the previous day or two days prior if they had a day off.
It's another fairly simple system that has fared well over the past few years with an overall record since the start of the 2009 season of 192-197, but with an average price of +126, so it's shown a profit of 38.14 units, which is solid for such an easy method.
Baseball's Low Scoring Winners
This is one of those methods that is embarrassingly simple, yet has produced a decent profit in each of the last three seasons. So far in the 2011 season it is showing a slight loss, which is somewhat expected as it does tend to back favorites more than underdogs, and as we have mentioned, the best time for wagering on underdogs is typically during the first half of the year.
This simple system tells us to back any home team that won its previous game while scoring three runs or less. That's all there is to it.
Such a simple method has produced the following results:
2008 140-92 +2115
2009 129-87 +2170
2010 145-112 +948
2011 18-17 -134
As mentioned above, this is a method that I would expect to do better the second half of the season than the first, so the 18-17 record through the first month of April isn't really troubling.
Remember, the team in question can be favored or be tabbed as the underdog. Our only requirement is that they are the home team.
Baseball Betting - Baseball Revenge Systems
Baseball's Quick Revenge System
The first method involves teams that are playing at home and were defeated by three or more runs the previous game by the same team they are playing today. A team that was embarrassed in front of the home fans is likely to want to return the favor in the worst possible way.
The one requirement of this system is that the team we are looking to wager on is favored in the game. The reason for this is that we want to make sure the team we are wagering on is fairly comparable in ability to the team they just lost to, or that we have a big advantage in the starting pitchers.
This system makes sense for the reason that we are betting on a team that should be motivated. The fact that we should be receiving a slight break in the odds on the game doesn't hurt either.
Baseball's Long-Term Revenge System
As the name implies, this system doesn't take place right away, as here we are looking for teams that were swept (lost all of the games) in a series to bounce back with at least one win the next time the two teams meet.
Some bettors will add stipulations to this system, such as taking the team on the run line (+ 1.5 runs) if they are the underdog and wagering on the money line if the team is the favorite. Others will vary their betting amounts to show a profit as long as the team wins at least one game in the new series.
Once the team that was swept in the previous series wins a game in the new series, the system comes to an end, as the team has accomplished its primary goal of not getting swept again, which would be extremely humiliating for any professional baseball team.
As always, systems are best used as a supplement to your normal handicapping method and not as a stand-alone method of predicting the outcomes of games. While it's best to look for additional avenues of support in backing a team that is recommended by either system, it's probably best not to wager against either system, regardless of what your handicapping suggests.
If your handicapping implies a wager on a team that falls into either system, you can feel a little more confident about your chances of winning.
Baseball Favorite Betting System
The system went 24-13 last year, but with one basic addition, was good for a 33-17 record. We'll discuss several ways to use the system, and bettors can determine which method works best for them.
The Basic System
The basic premise of the system is to bet on any team with a winning percentage of .470 or greater if it is a home favorite of more than -110 and has lost its last three games as a home favorite of -110 or greater.
Teams in that situation posted a 24-13 record in their next game, but of the 13 losers, nine of them came back to win their following game in that situation. A bettor backing a team after a system loss would then be 33-17.
Other bettors will use some sort of "double up" betting system and treat each situation as a win or loss, and will continue to wager on teams meeting the system criteria until showing a profit. Using that type of betting strategy did produce a 37-0 record, with just one team needing four attempts before getting the elusive victory. Still, it's not always wise to be chasing losses and the biggest drawback is that one unsuccessful sequence can eat away most, if not all, of the profits earned during the season.
Even if using some sort of progressive betting system, I wouldn't back a team for more than three consecutive times and I would also keep my original wagers on the small side, such as half a unit.
Keeping track of teams that fall into this system shouldn't take more than several minutes a day and it is something that baseball bettors should be aware of.
Baseball's Departing Dogs
This week's baseball system pertains to underdogs in the final game of a series. As we've mentioned before with several other systems, we try to find underdogs off a win for two reasons. The first, is that the team has a bit of confidence after a victory and the second is that many people believe the favorite will bounce back, which helps give us better odds.
What we're looking for in this system is an underdog that won the previous game as an underdog, while allowing six hits or less, and the game being played is the final game in the series.
The six-hit rule means the favored team isn't swinging a hot bat and teams do tend to run in streaks.
The results for this system are as follows:
2008: 59-65 +$995
2009: 69-74 +$1,225
2010: 66-72 +$1573
2011: 6-5 +$203
It's odd that the system actually showed a decent year in 2009, which is when favorites covered at higher than normal rate, and it has been pretty consistent over the years. Not bad for such an easy method.
Baseball's Comeback Kids
This system is another that pertains to either favorites or underdogs and gives out some of each. The average lay price since 2008 is -110, which is the same as you would lay in football and basketball.
Here, we're looking for teams that were able to overcome a sloppy pitching performance and still get a victory. By sloppy, we're referring to the number of walks that a team allows.
The system is to bet on any teams its next game after seeing its pitchers allow five or more walks, provided that team came from behind to take the win.
Here are the year-by-year records for the system:
2008 144-121 +2175
2009 151-132 +735
2010 117-94 +1867
2011 35-31 +227
Total 447-378 +5004
The record isn't bad for such an easy method.
Run Line Wagering
If we were to look at the same teams on the run line, our record since 2008 would be 435-380, which is slightly worse, but that also knocks the average lay price down to -103, so the profit since 2008 would be +6,208, which is $1,200 more.
The year-by-year breakdown taking these teams on the run line would be:
2008 143-122 +2060
2009 146-134 +1370
2010 111-93 +2032
2011 35-31 +746
For the year, 2008 was slightly worse using the run line, while the other two full seasons showed a bigger profit in betting the run line.
The record in 2011 is the same in betting the run line or the money line, but those betting the money line are laying -114, while those taking the run line have an average price of +106, which is why the profit is much better.
This method will take a few minutes each day to look at the previous day's boxscores, but it has proven to be a worthwhile method over the years.
Baseball's Better Dogs
This system follows the rationale that too much weight is given to the starting pitcher and not enough to the team aspect.
What we're looking for are home underdogs of +110 or greater that have a better record than their opponent. That's all there is to it.
Going back to the start of the 2009 season, we find a yearly record of:
2009: 38-34 +$1,305
2010: 27-26 +$895
2011: 7-4 +$550
Now there two reasons why a team with a worse record will be at least -120 road favorite. The most obvious reason is that they have their ace pitcher going. The second-most likely reason is that the home team has its worst pitcher going.
But this appears to be another case of the starting pitchers getting too much credit in the betting line and not enough weight is being given to the better team.
These situations don't occur all that often, but they proven to be worth keeping an eye out for.
Late Scorers System
This method will have a lot more plays than most of the systems we've looked at so far this baseball season. Last season it had more than 460 plays alone, so it's one of the better ones for those who like lots of action.
As with most of the other systems, we're going to focus on a team off of a win and there is just one requirement. That is we want the team we are betting on to have scored more runs against the bullpen than they did against the starter. That's it.
Simply stated, "Bet on any team off a win that scored more runs against the bullpen than it did against the opponent's starting pitcher."
The system will yield both favorites and underdogs, with the average price since 2010 standing at -108, so we're not playing solely big favorites, which is a good thing.
Since the start of the 2010 season, the system is 361-285 for a profit of 67.75 units, although most of the profit came in the 2010 season in which the system was 266-197. So far in 2011, it stands at 95-88 for a small profit of 4.10 units, so it will be interesting to watch over the next month to see if it begins to pick up steam or was pretty much a one-year wonder.
From the standpoint of "Does it make sense?" which should be asked when presented with any system the answer would be yes, although it seems to make a bit more sense in games involving the same two teams, while the system results are bases on the next game regardless of who the opponent is.
Betting Good Luck/Bad Luck Pitchers
The best way to use this method is as a three-game chase method, which means we will follow a qualifying pitcher for up to three starts.
If we have a pitcher who is due for a loss, meaning they earned a win in a game in which they allowed five or more earned runs, we will bet against that pitcher their next three starts or until we win a bet. If the pitcher's team loses the next game he takes the mound, we'll scratch him off of our ‘bet against’ list.
We'll do the same for our bad luck pitchers, one who gets tagged with a loss in a game in which they allow one earned run or less, who will be on our ‘bet for’ list. We'll either bet on them up to three times or until we cash a ticket.
It's important to note that for the purpose of our wagers, the pitcher doesn't have to earn a decision for us to end a betting series. Once a betting sequence begins, we're solely interested in winning or losing our bets.
Low Scoring Underdog Winners
There is one situation that I'll give a bit of extra consideration and that's an underdog off a straight up win as an underdog while scoring three runs or less. Here's a team who didn't have its best offensive game, yet managed to win a game it was expected to lose and is expected to come on the short end once again.
Since the 2008 season, teams in this situation are 186-204 for a profit of $5,165 for a bettor wagering $100 per play. That's not bad for such a simple system.
Last year the system was 75-79 for a profit of $2,490. It dipped a bit in 2009, going 46-57 for a profit of $685 after going 65-68 for a profit of $1,990.
Baseball Pitcher Form Reversal
One statistic that is readily available in many newspapers and websites is what a pitcher has done in his last three starts. Many baseball bettors make the mistake of wanting to back the hot pitcher, when in fact that pitcher is the one most likely to have a setback. A pitcher with a season ERA of 4.78, but an ERA of 2.68 in his last three starts may appear to be a solid bet, but there's a reason the pitcher has such a high ERA to begin with.
When looking a starting pitcher and their recent form was to take the pitcher's season ERA and double it. Then subtract the pitcher's ERA from the last three games to get an estimate of their expected performance. Using the example above, by taking the pitcher's season ERA of 4.78 and doubling it, we would get a total of 9.56. Subtract the three-game ERA of 2.68 and our expected ERA of the pitcher becomes a whopping 6.88, and this is when most bettors will be backing this pitcher on the assumption that he has a hot hand.
On the other side of the equation, if a pitcher has a season ERA of 3.86 and a three-game ERA of 5.00, we can expect a better performance today, as his expected ERA becomes 2.72 for today's game.
The key concept behind this method is that starting pitchers will perform at their expected level over the course of the season. A good pitcher with several bad starts in a row should be expected to revert back to the form that established them as a good pitcher. While a bad pitcher with several strong starts should be expected to show why he is a bad pitcher over time.
As an added bonus, baseball bettors using this method are more likely to receive a little added value on their wagers, as many times they will be bucking the public, who loves to hop aboard or hop off of the bandwagon.
Baseball Divisional Underdog Method
In fact, taking divisional underdogs off a straight up win, either over today's opponent or the previous team it played, has been one of the most successful systems over the past seven seasons, showing a profit in six of the seven years. The lone exception was 2009, a year in which underdog bettors shudder just thinking about, as favorites won an extraordinary number of games that season.
Yearly Breakdown
A year by year breakdown of how divisional underdogs have fared by units won:
2004 +27.50
2005 +63.95
2006 +33.10
2007 +28.5
2008 +60.60
2009 -19.30
2010 +25.45
Baseball's Beaten Favorites
One scenario where a team has given that little bit of extra effort in the past is when they have lost the previous game as a favorite of -200 or more and are playing the same opponent again today, as long as it is playing a team outside its division.
Divisional underdogs have historically been decent wagers in the past, as teams are more likely to give their best efforts against a team in the same division. A team that defeats a divisional favorite on one day is just as likely to be up for the next game, since they are still playing in its division, while a team that wins as a large non-divisional underdog is more prone to a bit of a letdown the next day.
A six-year study of losing favorites of -200 or more show they have responded with a 514-295 record for a gain of 93.87 units in the next game, provided they are playing a non-divisional team. Bettors can tell from the gain of units, compared to the record, they will be again be laying some decent odds, but the risk has been worth it, as teams in this situation have won 63.5-percent of their games the next time out.
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These are not systems I developed and, to be honest, I look for dogs (or low totals) and take them on almost instinctively.
If you've looked at my BF blog, where I pick all the live games, you'll see a variety of hints I like (rookie, hard throwing lefties first time through a rotation and when I bet the runline) It's not particularly sophisticated, but I turn a modest profit on games I might not always pick, so I must be doing something right
Best of luck and bet those Divisional dogs!
It's the only way to make baseball pay imo. I always look for 1.75 as a cut off. As you say, streaks are very powerful.
Consider, 'over the long term, MLB underdogs beat favorites about 4 games out of 9 (or 44% of the time). Even with moneyline odds on underdogs earning you better than even money, you need to rack up better than a record of 4 wins and 5 losses every day to make substantial profits.'
'A seven year study of baseball results produced the following winning percentages and betting results:
Underdogs: 6917-9644 -153 units
Favorites: 9619-6891 -641 units
Even though the favorites won at a healthy 58.3% clip, bettors who backed only the favorites would lose four times as much as a bettor who backed only underdogs.'
The trick of course is knowing when to bet the dog!
One system ...
Betting Underdogs
1) The first thing you want to do is pull up the odds for a given day and eliminate any games in which a team is listed at above 2.50 on the moneyline. More times than not when a team is listed at 2.50 or higher to win a game, there is a pretty good chance the favorite is going to win the game. By eliminating this option, you will save yourself money by avoiding the temptation of betting on huge dogs.
2) After you have got rid of the monster dogs, you want to eliminate any underdogs who have lost three or more games in a row heading into the game, or any underdog who is facing a favorite that has won three or more in a row. This allows you to avoid getting caught up on an underdog who isn’t playing very well or going up against a favorite who is red hot.
3) The final thing you want to do is eliminate any team that is facing one of the top 20 pitchers. The top pitchers in the game will win more times than not, and avoiding going up against these aces is a smart play. While many websites will rank pitchers, the one that has been of the most value for this system is Jeff Sagarin’s Ratings of USA today.
4) Place your bets on the underdogs left.
Other systems ...
High Scoring Favorites System
Bettors still tend to over-react a bit to the previous game and naturally like to bet the favorites, so this system looks to take advantage of both situations. It's shown a healthy profit, despite a low winning percentage, so obviously it will be on a lot of bigger underdogs.
Since the start of the 2010 season, home favorites off a win in which they scored six or more runs are 378-287, which is a winning percentage of roughly 57 percent. But those teams are favored by an average price of -155, which makes them a terrible betting proposition.
On the other side of the equation, taking the opposite side at an average price of +145 would show a profit of 24.30 units since the start of the 2010 season, which is solid for such an easy to use method.
That's all there is to it. Simply take away underdogs playing an opponent who is off a victory in which they scored six or more runs.
Obviously this method will yield quite a few plays and is for those who like lots of action. If history repeats itself, you'll also be up a fair amount at the end of the year.
Series Starter System
The situation we're looking for are teams off a win in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and are now at home in the first game of a new series. We'll look to bet against these teams.
Because the team is at home they'll more often that not be the favorite and since they're coming off a win in which they hit the ball fairly well, the line may be slightly inflated. It doesn't matter if the game in which they won with the 10 or more hits was at home or away. All we're looking for is a qualifying win.
The Yearly Breakdown
2009 74-84 +505
2010 88-85 +2536
2010 30-28 +773
The game in question could have been played the previous day or two days prior if they had a day off.
It's another fairly simple system that has fared well over the past few years with an overall record since the start of the 2009 season of 192-197, but with an average price of +126, so it's shown a profit of 38.14 units, which is solid for such an easy method.
Baseball's Low Scoring Winners
This is one of those methods that is embarrassingly simple, yet has produced a decent profit in each of the last three seasons. So far in the 2011 season it is showing a slight loss, which is somewhat expected as it does tend to back favorites more than underdogs, and as we have mentioned, the best time for wagering on underdogs is typically during the first half of the year.
This simple system tells us to back any home team that won its previous game while scoring three runs or less. That's all there is to it.
Such a simple method has produced the following results:
2008 140-92 +2115
2009 129-87 +2170
2010 145-112 +948
2011 18-17 -134
As mentioned above, this is a method that I would expect to do better the second half of the season than the first, so the 18-17 record through the first month of April isn't really troubling.
Remember, the team in question can be favored or be tabbed as the underdog. Our only requirement is that they are the home team.
Baseball Betting - Baseball Revenge Systems
Baseball's Quick Revenge System
The first method involves teams that are playing at home and were defeated by three or more runs the previous game by the same team they are playing today. A team that was embarrassed in front of the home fans is likely to want to return the favor in the worst possible way.
The one requirement of this system is that the team we are looking to wager on is favored in the game. The reason for this is that we want to make sure the team we are wagering on is fairly comparable in ability to the team they just lost to, or that we have a big advantage in the starting pitchers.
This system makes sense for the reason that we are betting on a team that should be motivated. The fact that we should be receiving a slight break in the odds on the game doesn't hurt either.
Baseball's Long-Term Revenge System
As the name implies, this system doesn't take place right away, as here we are looking for teams that were swept (lost all of the games) in a series to bounce back with at least one win the next time the two teams meet.
Some bettors will add stipulations to this system, such as taking the team on the run line (+ 1.5 runs) if they are the underdog and wagering on the money line if the team is the favorite. Others will vary their betting amounts to show a profit as long as the team wins at least one game in the new series.
Once the team that was swept in the previous series wins a game in the new series, the system comes to an end, as the team has accomplished its primary goal of not getting swept again, which would be extremely humiliating for any professional baseball team.
As always, systems are best used as a supplement to your normal handicapping method and not as a stand-alone method of predicting the outcomes of games. While it's best to look for additional avenues of support in backing a team that is recommended by either system, it's probably best not to wager against either system, regardless of what your handicapping suggests.
If your handicapping implies a wager on a team that falls into either system, you can feel a little more confident about your chances of winning.
Baseball Favorite Betting System
The system went 24-13 last year, but with one basic addition, was good for a 33-17 record. We'll discuss several ways to use the system, and bettors can determine which method works best for them.
The Basic System
The basic premise of the system is to bet on any team with a winning percentage of .470 or greater if it is a home favorite of more than -110 and has lost its last three games as a home favorite of -110 or greater.
Teams in that situation posted a 24-13 record in their next game, but of the 13 losers, nine of them came back to win their following game in that situation. A bettor backing a team after a system loss would then be 33-17.
Other bettors will use some sort of "double up" betting system and treat each situation as a win or loss, and will continue to wager on teams meeting the system criteria until showing a profit. Using that type of betting strategy did produce a 37-0 record, with just one team needing four attempts before getting the elusive victory. Still, it's not always wise to be chasing losses and the biggest drawback is that one unsuccessful sequence can eat away most, if not all, of the profits earned during the season.
Even if using some sort of progressive betting system, I wouldn't back a team for more than three consecutive times and I would also keep my original wagers on the small side, such as half a unit.
Keeping track of teams that fall into this system shouldn't take more than several minutes a day and it is something that baseball bettors should be aware of.
Baseball's Departing Dogs
This week's baseball system pertains to underdogs in the final game of a series. As we've mentioned before with several other systems, we try to find underdogs off a win for two reasons. The first, is that the team has a bit of confidence after a victory and the second is that many people believe the favorite will bounce back, which helps give us better odds.
What we're looking for in this system is an underdog that won the previous game as an underdog, while allowing six hits or less, and the game being played is the final game in the series.
The six-hit rule means the favored team isn't swinging a hot bat and teams do tend to run in streaks.
The results for this system are as follows:
2008: 59-65 +$995
2009: 69-74 +$1,225
2010: 66-72 +$1573
2011: 6-5 +$203
It's odd that the system actually showed a decent year in 2009, which is when favorites covered at higher than normal rate, and it has been pretty consistent over the years. Not bad for such an easy method.
Baseball's Comeback Kids
This system is another that pertains to either favorites or underdogs and gives out some of each. The average lay price since 2008 is -110, which is the same as you would lay in football and basketball.
Here, we're looking for teams that were able to overcome a sloppy pitching performance and still get a victory. By sloppy, we're referring to the number of walks that a team allows.
The system is to bet on any teams its next game after seeing its pitchers allow five or more walks, provided that team came from behind to take the win.
Here are the year-by-year records for the system:
2008 144-121 +2175
2009 151-132 +735
2010 117-94 +1867
2011 35-31 +227
Total 447-378 +5004
The record isn't bad for such an easy method.
Run Line Wagering
If we were to look at the same teams on the run line, our record since 2008 would be 435-380, which is slightly worse, but that also knocks the average lay price down to -103, so the profit since 2008 would be +6,208, which is $1,200 more.
The year-by-year breakdown taking these teams on the run line would be:
2008 143-122 +2060
2009 146-134 +1370
2010 111-93 +2032
2011 35-31 +746
For the year, 2008 was slightly worse using the run line, while the other two full seasons showed a bigger profit in betting the run line.
The record in 2011 is the same in betting the run line or the money line, but those betting the money line are laying -114, while those taking the run line have an average price of +106, which is why the profit is much better.
This method will take a few minutes each day to look at the previous day's boxscores, but it has proven to be a worthwhile method over the years.
Baseball's Better Dogs
This system follows the rationale that too much weight is given to the starting pitcher and not enough to the team aspect.
What we're looking for are home underdogs of +110 or greater that have a better record than their opponent. That's all there is to it.
Going back to the start of the 2009 season, we find a yearly record of:
2009: 38-34 +$1,305
2010: 27-26 +$895
2011: 7-4 +$550
Now there two reasons why a team with a worse record will be at least -120 road favorite. The most obvious reason is that they have their ace pitcher going. The second-most likely reason is that the home team has its worst pitcher going.
But this appears to be another case of the starting pitchers getting too much credit in the betting line and not enough weight is being given to the better team.
These situations don't occur all that often, but they proven to be worth keeping an eye out for.
Late Scorers System
This method will have a lot more plays than most of the systems we've looked at so far this baseball season. Last season it had more than 460 plays alone, so it's one of the better ones for those who like lots of action.
As with most of the other systems, we're going to focus on a team off of a win and there is just one requirement. That is we want the team we are betting on to have scored more runs against the bullpen than they did against the starter. That's it.
Simply stated, "Bet on any team off a win that scored more runs against the bullpen than it did against the opponent's starting pitcher."
The system will yield both favorites and underdogs, with the average price since 2010 standing at -108, so we're not playing solely big favorites, which is a good thing.
Since the start of the 2010 season, the system is 361-285 for a profit of 67.75 units, although most of the profit came in the 2010 season in which the system was 266-197. So far in 2011, it stands at 95-88 for a small profit of 4.10 units, so it will be interesting to watch over the next month to see if it begins to pick up steam or was pretty much a one-year wonder.
From the standpoint of "Does it make sense?" which should be asked when presented with any system the answer would be yes, although it seems to make a bit more sense in games involving the same two teams, while the system results are bases on the next game regardless of who the opponent is.
Betting Good Luck/Bad Luck Pitchers
The best way to use this method is as a three-game chase method, which means we will follow a qualifying pitcher for up to three starts.
If we have a pitcher who is due for a loss, meaning they earned a win in a game in which they allowed five or more earned runs, we will bet against that pitcher their next three starts or until we win a bet. If the pitcher's team loses the next game he takes the mound, we'll scratch him off of our ‘bet against’ list.
We'll do the same for our bad luck pitchers, one who gets tagged with a loss in a game in which they allow one earned run or less, who will be on our ‘bet for’ list. We'll either bet on them up to three times or until we cash a ticket.
It's important to note that for the purpose of our wagers, the pitcher doesn't have to earn a decision for us to end a betting series. Once a betting sequence begins, we're solely interested in winning or losing our bets.
Low Scoring Underdog Winners
There is one situation that I'll give a bit of extra consideration and that's an underdog off a straight up win as an underdog while scoring three runs or less. Here's a team who didn't have its best offensive game, yet managed to win a game it was expected to lose and is expected to come on the short end once again.
Since the 2008 season, teams in this situation are 186-204 for a profit of $5,165 for a bettor wagering $100 per play. That's not bad for such a simple system.
Last year the system was 75-79 for a profit of $2,490. It dipped a bit in 2009, going 46-57 for a profit of $685 after going 65-68 for a profit of $1,990.
Baseball Pitcher Form Reversal
One statistic that is readily available in many newspapers and websites is what a pitcher has done in his last three starts. Many baseball bettors make the mistake of wanting to back the hot pitcher, when in fact that pitcher is the one most likely to have a setback. A pitcher with a season ERA of 4.78, but an ERA of 2.68 in his last three starts may appear to be a solid bet, but there's a reason the pitcher has such a high ERA to begin with.
When looking a starting pitcher and their recent form was to take the pitcher's season ERA and double it. Then subtract the pitcher's ERA from the last three games to get an estimate of their expected performance. Using the example above, by taking the pitcher's season ERA of 4.78 and doubling it, we would get a total of 9.56. Subtract the three-game ERA of 2.68 and our expected ERA of the pitcher becomes a whopping 6.88, and this is when most bettors will be backing this pitcher on the assumption that he has a hot hand.
On the other side of the equation, if a pitcher has a season ERA of 3.86 and a three-game ERA of 5.00, we can expect a better performance today, as his expected ERA becomes 2.72 for today's game.
The key concept behind this method is that starting pitchers will perform at their expected level over the course of the season. A good pitcher with several bad starts in a row should be expected to revert back to the form that established them as a good pitcher. While a bad pitcher with several strong starts should be expected to show why he is a bad pitcher over time.
As an added bonus, baseball bettors using this method are more likely to receive a little added value on their wagers, as many times they will be bucking the public, who loves to hop aboard or hop off of the bandwagon.
Baseball Divisional Underdog Method
In fact, taking divisional underdogs off a straight up win, either over today's opponent or the previous team it played, has been one of the most successful systems over the past seven seasons, showing a profit in six of the seven years. The lone exception was 2009, a year in which underdog bettors shudder just thinking about, as favorites won an extraordinary number of games that season.
Yearly Breakdown
A year by year breakdown of how divisional underdogs have fared by units won:
2004 +27.50
2005 +63.95
2006 +33.10
2007 +28.5
2008 +60.60
2009 -19.30
2010 +25.45
Baseball's Beaten Favorites
One scenario where a team has given that little bit of extra effort in the past is when they have lost the previous game as a favorite of -200 or more and are playing the same opponent again today, as long as it is playing a team outside its division.
Divisional underdogs have historically been decent wagers in the past, as teams are more likely to give their best efforts against a team in the same division. A team that defeats a divisional favorite on one day is just as likely to be up for the next game, since they are still playing in its division, while a team that wins as a large non-divisional underdog is more prone to a bit of a letdown the next day.
A six-year study of losing favorites of -200 or more show they have responded with a 514-295 record for a gain of 93.87 units in the next game, provided they are playing a non-divisional team. Bettors can tell from the gain of units, compared to the record, they will be again be laying some decent odds, but the risk has been worth it, as teams in this situation have won 63.5-percent of their games the next time out.
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These are not systems I developed and, to be honest, I look for dogs (or low totals) and take them on almost instinctively.
If you've looked at my BF blog, where I pick all the live games, you'll see a variety of hints I like (rookie, hard throwing lefties first time through a rotation and when I bet the runline) It's not particularly sophisticated, but I turn a modest profit on games I might not always pick, so I must be doing something right
Best of luck and bet those Divisional dogs!
Howdo Orioles ............. I've become something of an Am Foot shrewdie 
CC, you should subscribe to the 'Orioles All-Weather/NFL Goldmine Tipping Service' for the low, low price of £1000/month
FEEL LIKE IM BACK AT SCHOOL WITH THAT ****G ESSAY OF A POST
FEEL LIKE IM BACK AT SCHOOL WITH THAT ****G ESSAY OF A POST
>>>Beanie's brain capsizes at 141 characters.
>>>Beanie's brain capsizes at 141 characters.
CANT STAND ALL THIS FAFFIN ABOUT BEFORE BIG GAMES .. WE GOT **** TO DO IN MORNING GET ON WITH IT FECK SAKE
Zebras seem to want Bama to cover the spread.
Well you say that after they drive down and score easily .... its still early.
seen somewhere that $2billion has been bet on this game, seems like at least 60% of that has been put on Alabama -10 by the Refs
No, I say that after they drive down and score easily TWICE
I hate the call on the fair catch fumble, whatever the rule the .... the ND guy is running full pelt toward the return man who signals a split second before he catches it, he runs past him and they cant wait to get the flags out.
Everyone needs to stop watching these bowl games imo, get them to introduce a real play off system
this capped off a terrible bowl season for me.
didnt see a blowout like this?
was that one sided as I didnt watch?
didnt see a blowout like this?
was that one sided as I didnt watch?
A hideous after-time, but after reading a really in depth write up by someone on covers I did bama -9.5, small stakes. As good as ND had been, there wasn't one area they were actually better.
Alabama just smashed them to pieces. Pretty clear ND had not beaten anyone as good as Georgia, never mind the tide.
Alabama just smashed them to pieces. Pretty clear ND had not beaten anyone as good as Georgia, never mind the tide.
d13 - It was total domination from the first play to the last. Eddie Lacy was unstoppable, Mcarron was perfect. ND could not run at all, and the couldn't tackle anybody. Every time Golson threw the ball he was running for his life. Te'o had a nightmare. ND's secondary got badly exposed. ND kept trying to challenge Dee Milliner and got nowhere.
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101524815&page=1
I'll be checking out this guy again next year, he absolutely nailed it.
I'll be checking out this guy again next year, he absolutely nailed it.
ND had 2 huge calls go against them early and they never really recovered.
They were battered fair and square as it turns out, but they certainly weren't helped by the officials.
They were battered fair and square as it turns out, but they certainly weren't helped by the officials.
Yeah , covers is a great site once you sort out the guys to follow
Those calls made no difference in the end, and that punt interference thing was discussed by a current official and he said it was correct, the juggled catch was a catch though.
They're now without doubt a dynasty, Saban is staying, I can see him overtaking Bear Bryant.
They're now without doubt a dynasty, Saban is staying, I can see him overtaking Bear Bryant.
That's some write-up on Covers and a helluva gutsy Unders call. It was a beat down I didn't see coming - haven't watched it yet.
It's brutal O's. Te'o looked like Rylan Clarke out there.
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