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It is very likely that the AFC road to the Superbowl is going to go through Texas and if this happens this would mean that in the Divisional round (bar any shocks) the Pats would have to go to the Broncos leaving the Texans playing either one the following:-
Ravens/Steelers/Bengals/Colts.
In my eyes they will beat the 4 above teams as long as no major injury occurs, which surely makes them a good bet at 8 for a back to lay situation.
Am I missing something here????
Ravens/Steelers/Bengals/Colts.
In my eyes they will beat the 4 above teams as long as no major injury occurs, which surely makes them a good bet at 8 for a back to lay situation.
Am I missing something here????
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Good spot. I would recommend another bet based on your analysis.
The Texans are 9/4 to win the AFC with SJ and they are betting each-way 1/2 first 2 places so you get your stake back (actually very small profit) at a minimum if they win their first play-off match which, as Zach says above, is a very winnable game against one of the 4 teams he mentions So you are effectively getting odds of 2.125 that they win that game and then odds of 3.25 that they win the Championship game. They will definitely be shorter in both those games, especially if they are at home. |
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But if they lose the first game you lose twice you stake so you cannot say you are effectively getting 2.125 and then 3.25
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Yeah OK I see what you mean
If you look at it as 2 separate bets though you can see where I'm coming from (although I'm not explaining it very well) |
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Yeah I was wondering why the texan's didn't shorten after sunday's surprise result. It's highly probable that the road to the AFC championship now goes through Houston and there is a chance that Brady takes the Patriots to Denver and they lose, this would make Houston good value at the current prices. I backed them 8/1 4 places before the season and am slightly bemused that they aren't a tad shorter than the 7.8 especially knowing the probable make-up of the post season.
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db - I do agree. I think the whole thing looking at the SJ market warrants some close attention for those that can get on given the ew nature of their betting.
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It looks like this mispricing has been closed. Well done anyone that could get on.
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because kubiak is a useless coach and schaub is not a franchise quarter back
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texans
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I know
 Should still get the No.1 seed as the Colts are locked in at No.5 now so they have nothing to play for next weekend. At least that's what I'm clinging onto at this stage. Foster a huge loss though. Texans going nowhere without him. |
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precaution taking him out db...few weeks to rest him up....they have more problems than foster...they have a **** QB...I think the colts will go at this game to be honest.
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With a win they likely go against Texans in the wild card round instead of Pats so surely they will go for the win..
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yes I think so...texans are playing rubbish....patriots in foxboro...brady in the playoffs..no thanks
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No the Colts are going to the Ravens. That's already settled. Colts are locked into the No.5 and Ravens are locked into No.4, those seedings can't be changed. Colts take the 5 seed on common games ahead of Bengals (according to Twitter anyway)
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yep...if Texans loses home field I can't really see past Manning vs Brady for the AFC title
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hmm, yep that's the case you're right
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db how does this common games thing work in this case...doesnt make sense as the colts have played the browns once but the bengals have to play them twice obviously being in the same division so that game cant count surely?
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indy v jags twice 1-1 (benglas beat the jags)
bengals v browns 1-1 (indy beat the browns) surely them are cancelled out...only other common games are kansas and miami...bengals beat kansas and lost to miami...indy beat both but it says you have to have a minimum of 4 common games...do the top 2 count as the common games with having to play them twice with the other team only getting one shot at a win  |
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I think it does count. I'm going by Joe Ferreira, who is the Playoff guru on CBS. He tweeted that those playoff spots are locked in now by virtue of common games. It has to be a min of 5 games for common games to be used so they must be
Colts - 4 wins from their 5 games Jaguars x 2 Browns Chiefs Dolphins Bengals - 3 wins from their 5 games Browns x 2 Jaguars Chiefs Dolphins Seems a bit weird to count the divisional games alright but I presume Joe knows his stuff |
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Min 4 games, you are right
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so what if the bengals for example had beaten the browns twice...surely that as a common game would only count once? I know indy had the same opportunity to beat the jags twice to level that up...bit complicated to be honest...strength of victory comes next
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if they say it is locked up they must have looked right into this before the games...just couldnt figure out this common game thing with the browns and jags games confusing things
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I think the divisional games count as 2 games
colts.com forum seem pretty sure they have the 5th seed locked up, they're starting to abuse anyone who claims otherwise so that's usually a good sign! |
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I figured it would only count as 1 common game as the bengals play the browns twice and the colts play them once..dont see how that can count as 2 games...I know it is the same the other way round but I have never come across a situation like that.
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Yeah colts and bengals are locks in 5 and 6. Other 4 are up for grabs.
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Harry did you dump your steelers bets?
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When your luck is out it's really out
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Massive overreaction to the Texans, in my opinion.
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