Is Betting on the NFL a lottery?

No more than any other sport: the more you learn about it, the better your returns.

I take that back

I think like most sports especially football it's often best to go with your gut feeling which is based upon an inherant knowledge and just an overview of everything you have seen and read than going with rationale. Like you say, how on earth the Cardinals could smash the Lions today given the state of them in recent weeks but some people might have thought they couldn't get any worse and the Lions have nothing to play for and are also hit and miss so could be their day etc (although i backed the Lions on rationale and even with gut feeling i didn't see that one coming ).

One of the big problems you have with NFL is that by law, each side is entitled to try for a touchdown in turn , so for e.g Atlanta go up and score , Giants then turn ball over to Atlanta who score , suddenly Giants 14-0 down , they get ball and turn it over ---- 21-0 , get ball and punt so now its Atlanta turn , if they go up and score you can easily see how these games get the way they do.

One of the things I like to do is pick a good team against a rubbish team so for e.g if Pittsburgh were playing the Chiefs you could safely know the Steelers will win , so that takes the turn overs out of the equation because you know the Chiefs (unlike the Falcons say) can't go up and score at will so really all you have to worry about is the Hcap mark not the result.

The Patriots vs the Jags this week is a classic case in point whereas the Seahakws vs the 49's is like the Falcons vs the Giants last week.

Dec 20, 2012 -- 9:18PM, The Priest wrote:

One of the big problems you have with NFL is that by law, each side is entitled to try for a touchdown in turn , so for e.g Atlanta go up and score , Giants then turn ball over to Atlanta who score , suddenly Giants 14-0 down , they get ball and turn it over ---- 21-0 , get ball and punt so now its Atlanta turn , if they go up and score you can easily see how these games get the way they do.One of the things I like to do is pick a good team against a rubbish team so for e.g if Pittsburgh were playing the Chiefs you could safely know the Steelers will win , so that takes the turn overs out of the equation because you know the Chiefs (unlike the Falcons say) can't go up and score at will so really all you have to worry about is the Hcap mark not the result.The Patriots vs the Jags this week is a classic case in point whereas the Seahakws vs the 49's is like the Falcons vs the Giants last week.

Take extreme caution when using this approach, I take you to the Packers @ Chiefs game last year. I remember it vividly as it cost me a boat load.

its been a really tough year for sure.

the hardest one for me was the Chargers murdering the Steelers and then rolling over against the Panthers

Cost me a bucketload along with the Lions/Cardinals debacle.  where the feck did that come from?

Im still up over the year but less so now. 

I think the lesson I learnt is not to bet on sh1t teams.

It's not easy, I was fantastic last year, awful this. Bit better lately. Biggest issue is my teams almost never gets ahead early, so there's no greening potential.

Common mistakes.

1. Wanting a bet on the TV games.

2. Ignoring the less glamorous games - Sea @ Bills a classic example last week. Could have had money on a really good team against a poor team but went with Detroit @ 4-9 against the Cards instead. Look at every game.

3. Own team betting.

I think it's a lot about getting into a rythmn, too often you find yourself a week too late with a team, last year I got on the NYG just as they got hot and won 6 straight and had them @ 16's for the SB I'd advise also looking longer term at teams to oppose or follow, I knew the Jets would be **** before the season started, and they have been. That's saved my bacon a bit.

Tbh I have not used this longer term strategy nearly enough this year, should have punted Denver a lot more and faded Balti who I knew were trash months ago.

Also always try and get the best QB on your side, and easy money to be made opposing crap like Cutler in big games. West coast teams usually don't do well travelling to the east coast (he says after SF beat NE, look at teams schedules sometimes there's a letdown game before or after a big showdown so for example.

Asc I said for me, the biggest let down has been I haven't been able to trade much as I'm always behind early

WHY DID NORWICH BEAT MAN U ... WHY DID ARSENAL LOSE TO SWANSEA ... YOU ONLY THIN ITS A LOTTERY COS THERE'S ALWAYS A WINNER WHERES FOOTBALL THERE'S 3 OUTCOMES. TRUST ME MORE YOU WATCH THE MORE YOU BECOME COMFORTABLE PICKING A WINNER