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ClayDavis
28 Nov 12 20:36
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 8,456 | Blogger: ClayDavis's blog
Can't believe the line is +3.5pts... Saints will win this, never mind getting 3.5pts.
They have got the better of those Dirty Birds. pretty sure the dirty Birds have only beaten the Saints twice since 2006.

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Replies: 283
By:
inner city sumo
When: 28 Nov 12 21:33
Yep, our record against the filth has been poor in recent years, although I have no problem in saying overall they have been much the better team outwith our matches in this era, so you'd expect them to have the better record in the match up against most lesser outfits. We've been average all season, we're not playing for our life, they will be. The only caveat is that despite our mediocrity we've risen to most of the challenges we've faced this season.
By:
Peppz
When: 28 Nov 12 22:56
I very rarely post on here but felt compelled to on this.  Anyone know why the Saints are out at 2.76!?  Seems unbelievably generous.  Expected 2.2, maybe 2.3.

Many reasons, including:

-  Saints are effectively playing for their season tomorrow.

-  Looks like the Falcons may well be without their #1 CB Asante Samuel (DNP all week), who was the only Falcon defender to come out of that game in the Superdome three weeks ago with any credit. 

-  Saints may have starting RT Zack Strief back, who missed the Falcons game in the Superdome.  If he returns, the Saints have a healthy set of starters on both sides of the ball for one of the first times this season.

-  The stats the Saints have put up on the Falcons in recent years are impossible to ignore.  Pete Carmichael's scheme dominates the Falcons.  To beat the Saints, you have to shut down their running game, have corners that can man cover, then be able to get effective pressure on Brees.  San Francisco demonstrated this perfectly on Sunday.  This Falcons defense is almost the polar opposite of the 49ers.  Vulnerable against the run, zone coverage, and a patchy pass rush.  Why is the market so confident that, in 3 days practise this week without their #1 CB, the Falcons have made the necessary defensive adjustments to suddenly do all of these thingsl!?

-  The Saints spotted the Falcons a 10 point lead in the Superdome three weeks ago, and still came back to win.

The only thing I can think in the Falcons favour is "short week, home team".  Or that the market is just being blindly driven by the fact it's 10-1 v 5-6.  But there's a lot more to this matchup than the records suggest.

I personally favour the Saints in this one, but expected the market to see it as a pick'em game, with a very slight edge to the Falcons based on homefield advantage.  Saints at 2.76 seems an absolute steal!

So what am I missing?
By:
HARRY22
When: 29 Nov 12 01:28
Have to agree with both of you..seems a big price on the saints...playing as well as atlanta if not better...looks a massive price...Its not as if they are playing outdoors in bad weather away from home.
By:
Ming_the_Merciless
When: 29 Nov 12 16:32
I am on the saints SU in this match too (sorry falla's) - they're on a roll and only a couple of pick 6's cost em against the 49'ers.
By:
glory hornet
When: 29 Nov 12 17:03
Birds dont lose this at home

Falcons by 7
By:
HARRY22
When: 29 Nov 12 17:09
hornet I hope you dont bet on atlanta to win by more than 7 in most home games...you would be applying for a crisis loan.......My view on atlanta is they are a very solid team with a very good QB with the best 2 receiver and TE group....They seem to find a way to win but they are not that convincing..they are yet to win a home game by 7 pts...struggles v oakland arizona and carolina at home
By:
glory hornet
When: 29 Nov 12 17:21
Todays the day then Harry :D
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 29 Nov 12 17:28
Anybody on Saints please shut up FFS!

This is secret squirrel stuff!  Be an expert after the bank has closed!
By:
Beaniash
When: 29 Nov 12 18:21
HOW MANY TIME ARE WE GONNA HEAR THE "PLAYING FOR THEIR SEASON" STUFF ... I COULDA SWORN THAT WAS ON SUNDAY AND THEY LOST. WHATS TO PLAY FOR NOW
By:
dlarssonf
When: 29 Nov 12 18:30
Saints can still get the 6th seed but you prob know that but enjoy using the caps lock button as it makes you look so importantSad
By:
Beaniash
When: 29 Nov 12 18:35
WHATEVER NOTHING UVE SAID I HAVENT HEARD BEFORE ... ATL -3.5 EASY PICKINGS
By:
Beaniash
When: 29 Nov 12 18:41
ITS ABOUT TIME FALCONS GOT THE RESPECT THEY DESERVE
By:
HARRY22
When: 29 Nov 12 20:30
^ Respect for what?? winning games JUST Wink
By:
HARRY22
When: 29 Nov 12 20:36
dlarssonf 29 Nov 12 18:30 Joined: 05 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 6,698 | Blogger: dlarssonf's blog
Saints can still get the 6th seed but you prob know that but enjoy using the caps lock button as it makes you look so important

If the saints win we could have 6 teams in a tie for that 6th spot come monday
By:
jonny1
When: 29 Nov 12 20:49
Good call beanish. Obviously a saints love in going on here, they're not fighting for their season for no reaaon, they've a terrible defense and brees has been hit and miss. Atlanta might be scrapin wins but their getting it done. They'll cover the spread here, wait for another desperate game from saints
By:
HARRY22
When: 29 Nov 12 21:18
All this talk about terrible defence? why? Atlanta failed on more than one occasion in the superdome against the saints redzone D...the last game between these 2 teams resulted in a saints win...has this been forgotten Confused
By:
VieirasaGooner
When: 29 Nov 12 21:59
New Orleans are 11-2 in the last 13 against Atlanta and 4-0 on the last 4 visits too Atlanta, just protect the ball a little better than against Frisco and I thik they can take the win here, My prediction is a close one with NO coming out on top 28-21
By:
VieirasaGooner
When: 29 Nov 12 22:02
So there you have it, on my current form you should all be racing too lay New Orleans
By:
HARRY22
When: 29 Nov 12 22:44
Jimmy Graham

@TheJimmyGraham
Bus just got egged after landing in ATL by the ramp workers. Classy! "RISE Up" smh


More fuel to the fire...go saints.
By:
jonny1
When: 29 Nov 12 23:15
So much love for the saints yet the price keeps rising! Shrewdies know that falcons have this.
By:
Beaniash
When: 29 Nov 12 23:45

Nov 29, 2012 -- 8:30PM, HARRY22 wrote:


^ Respect for what?? winning games JUST


MATT RYAN IS THE MOST CONSISTENT QB IN THE LEAGUE, JULIO JONES, RODDY WHITE AND GONZALES ARE JUST TEARING IT UP THE ONLY ISSUE IS THEIR RUN GAME BUT THAT CAN BE FIXED EASILY IF AND WHEN. THE DEFENSE IS MEH BUT THEY ARE 4TH IN POINTS ALLOWED NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT. TO ME THEY ARE THE BEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE BY FAR AND IF THEY WIN GAMES THE LAST SEC THEN SO BE IT.

By:
jonny1
When: 30 Nov 12 00:26
Dont worry beanish, they'll respect them after the game. People are probably blinded by the money that the saints won them in previous seasons.
By:
Lix
When: 30 Nov 12 00:29
Asante been passed fit?
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 30 Nov 12 00:49
yes lix.
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 30 Nov 12 00:56
Im with the consensus here, saints are too big a price, whether they win or not is a different matter, but certainly would rather be backing the saints than the falcons at the prices.
By:
Srichaphan or Ancic?
When: 30 Nov 12 01:02
I'm on Atlanta -2.5
By:
Srichaphan or Ancic?
When: 30 Nov 12 01:03
I know they have looked a bit susceptible but at home they should have too much for the Saints.
By:
punkha1
When: 30 Nov 12 01:23
Fancy Jimmy Graham to have a big night 150 to win 100 at PP anytime scorer will give me an interest for the night.
By:
ArmchairIdiot
When: 30 Nov 12 01:29
Saints straight. All day. Their effort against 49ers was admirable, and a repeat will see them win here. I fancy they'll win easily.
By:
HARRY22
When: 30 Nov 12 01:30
what does being at home have to do with anything? it is in a dome which the saints also play in...atlanta win better away from home than they do at home..complete myth
By:
Lix
When: 30 Nov 12 01:31
erm.... home teams win more than away teams in every sport Harry. Lots of reasons for this. It has to be a factor.
By:
jonny1
When: 30 Nov 12 01:32
Lol this is too easy
By:
ArmchairIdiot
When: 30 Nov 12 01:33
Lol this is the first few minutes...
By:
baxter152
When: 30 Nov 12 01:34
This Saints D is woeful....
By:
ArmchairIdiot
When: 30 Nov 12 01:34
rtjhrtjh
By:
jonny1
When: 30 Nov 12 01:35
Yes and we're seein how bad this saints defense is, if you could call it that
By:
HARRY22
When: 30 Nov 12 01:36
LIX...I am not talking about all home teams..just saying atlanta have been better on the road this season..they havent won a home game by 7 or more...ravens for example are a home team that is dominant at home
By:
ArmchairIdiot
When: 30 Nov 12 01:36

Nov 30, 2012 -- 1:31AM, Lix wrote:


erm.... home teams win more than away teams in every sport Harry. Lots of reasons for this. It has to be a factor.


Bit of a sweeping one there, no? Depends on the match up more that home and away.

By:
jonny1
When: 30 Nov 12 01:36
Very long night for saints backers! Hopefully people will realise hiw bad they are
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