North American
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
22 Nov 12
03:31
Joined:
Date Joined:
17 May 04
Week 11:
I had a terrible week, all 7 games lost, and I lost about $834, even though there were four out of seven games that had good 'in-play' betting opportunities, (I personally haven't been doing 'in-play', since you need to know which team will be the leading team earlier in the game), and you also need about a 75%+ strike rate, to make 'in-play' profitable over the distance.
I started this week with $16000, i ended this week with $15166.60, (being a weekly figure of, total wins: $0.00, and total losses: $883.40)
__________________________________
Week 12: (with a betting capital of $15166.60)
Since I bet to 2.5% 'rated total payout' figures, I must reduce my payout figure from $400 to roughly $380 ($379.165, for people who want to know what 2.5% is exactly), but i personally will be using the amount of $380.
Please note: i will only be posting Decimal odds from now on, (as it is too time consuming, and the ratings are rounded up to the 3rd decimal place).
__________________________________
we start the week with:
22/11/2012 Patriots Vs Jets
Jets (1st Pick) are rated at: $107.7 @ 3.529 = ~ $380
Patriots (2nd Pick) are: $272.3 @ 1.396 = ~ $380
the minimum backable odds(net of any applicable commission) are:
$3.599 (for the Jets),
$1.443 (for the Patriots)
for people interested my personal bets for the game are currently:
Jets $107.7 @ 3.81 = ~$410.34
__________________________________________
also remember that this post was written at 1 pm, UTC +10, (Brisbane), so any player changes on either team from now on will turn these ratings into useless figures.
good luck
Gold Digger 1000
ps won't be posting which sites you can get the best prices on anymore, as the prices are always subject to fluctuate.
I had a terrible week, all 7 games lost, and I lost about $834, even though there were four out of seven games that had good 'in-play' betting opportunities, (I personally haven't been doing 'in-play', since you need to know which team will be the leading team earlier in the game), and you also need about a 75%+ strike rate, to make 'in-play' profitable over the distance.
I started this week with $16000, i ended this week with $15166.60, (being a weekly figure of, total wins: $0.00, and total losses: $883.40)
__________________________________
Week 12: (with a betting capital of $15166.60)
Since I bet to 2.5% 'rated total payout' figures, I must reduce my payout figure from $400 to roughly $380 ($379.165, for people who want to know what 2.5% is exactly), but i personally will be using the amount of $380.
Please note: i will only be posting Decimal odds from now on, (as it is too time consuming, and the ratings are rounded up to the 3rd decimal place).
__________________________________
we start the week with:
22/11/2012 Patriots Vs Jets
Jets (1st Pick) are rated at: $107.7 @ 3.529 = ~ $380
Patriots (2nd Pick) are: $272.3 @ 1.396 = ~ $380
the minimum backable odds(net of any applicable commission) are:
$3.599 (for the Jets),
$1.443 (for the Patriots)
for people interested my personal bets for the game are currently:
Jets $107.7 @ 3.81 = ~$410.34
__________________________________________
also remember that this post was written at 1 pm, UTC +10, (Brisbane), so any player changes on either team from now on will turn these ratings into useless figures.
good luck
Gold Digger 1000
ps won't be posting which sites you can get the best prices on anymore, as the prices are always subject to fluctuate.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 3
|
By:
Week 12 (continued)
_______________________________ The total rated outlay for all bets that are above the price needed (being 7 first picks and 0 second picks) is: $1099.50 I have changed my own betting style for any team with a rated profit margin over 11.58%, to try and get a potential advantage 'in-play', so my actual total outlay (being 7 first picks and 0 seconds picks) is: $1188.10 The potential total outlay for first picks is: $2120.10 The potential total outlay for my second picks is: $2439.90 Nb: all ratings are rounded up to the 3rd decimal place, and all amounts are rounded to the nearest 10 cents. _______________________________ 25/11/2012 _______________________________ Raiders vs Bengals (Raiders 1st Pick) Raiders are rated at: 96.7 @ 3.930 to payout ~380 (price needed at least 4.001) Bengals are rated at: 283.3 @ 1.342 to payout ~380 (price needed at least 1.387) I backed the raiders for 96.7 @ 4.38 to payout 423.55 (roughly an 11.46% rated profit margin). _______________________________ Bills vs Colts (Colts 1st Pick) Colts are rated at: 222.1 @ 1.711 to payout ~380 (price needed at least 1.746) Bills are rated at: 157.9 @ 2.407 to payout ~380 (price needed at least 2.487) couldn't find any value for either team, at this time. ________________________________ Broncos vs Chiefs (Chiefs 1st Pick) Chiefs are: 81 @ 4.692 to pay ~380 (price needed at least 4.786) Broncos are 299 @ 1.271 to pay ~380 (price needed at least 1.314) I backed the Chiefs for 81 @ 5.23 to pay 423.63 (roughly an 11.48 rated profit margin). ________________________________ Titans vs Jaguars (Jaguars 1st Pick) Jaguars are: 161.4 @ 2.355 to pay ~380 (price needed: 2.402 +) Titans are: 218.6 @ 1.739 to pay ~380 (price needed: 1.797 +) I backed the Jaguars for 250*** @ 2.68 to pay 670 (roughly a 13.83% rated profit margin). _________________________________ Important to note***: it is recommended to back the Jaguars at the rated amount of 161.4, unless you are confident in my trial working well (75% of the time or better). The changes for the trial are listed below(some of the changes may sound pretty obvious): 1. Change the total rated payout to roughly 4% , instead of the usual 2.5% 2. If a positive 'in-play' situation occurs, lay^ the team at the shorter price, I will be using the plan listed in the example below:: lay^:\ you can either lay the team you backed or back the other team, this is important so you can get the best possible prices, as every extra cent counts 3. If a negative 'in-play' situation occurs, then don't do anything, till it changes or until the game is over. example (steps listed below): 1. work out what the rated profit margin before any commission should be, which is ~14.56% margin (13.83% divide by 0.95) 2. then multiply that by your bet that you made earlier, in this case it is $250 x 0.1456, which is $36.40 3. Make the $36.40 your 2nd pick teams profit, (the first pick should always have the bigger potential win). 4. $34.58 should now be your net of commission profit margin for the second pick, this amount after the 5% com turns out to be the 13.832%, 34.58 divided by 250, is roughly equal to the 13.83% rated margin _________________________________ Falcons vs Buccaneers (Falcons 1st Pick) Falcons are: 200 @ 1.900 to pay 380 (price needed: 1938 +) Buccaneers are: 180 @ 2.12 to pay ~380 (price needed: 2.182 +) couldn't find any value for either team, at this time. __________________________________ Seahawks vs Dolphins (Seahawks 1st pick) Seahawks are: 221.8 @ 1.714 to pay ~380 (price needed: 1.748) Dolphins are: 158.2 @ 2.403 to pay ~380 (price needed: 2.483) couldn't find any value for either team, at this time. __________________________________ Ravens vs Chargers (Chargers 1st pick) Chargers are: 203.6 @ 1.86 7 to pay ~380 (priced needed: 1.904) Ravens are: 176.4 @ 2.155 to pay ~380 (priced needed: 2.227) I backed the Chargers for 203.6 @ 1.91 to pay ~388.88 (roughly a 2.34% rated profit margin). __________________________________ 49ers vs Saints (49ers 1st pick) 49ers are: 213.1 @ 1.784 to pay ~380 (price needed: 1.819) Saints are: 166.9 @ 2.277 to pay ~380 (price needed: 2.353) I backed the 49ers for 213.1 @ 1.943 to pay ~414.05 (roughly an 8.96% rated profit margin). __________________________________ Rams vs Cardinals (Cardinals 1st pick) Cardinals are: 209.6 @ 1.813 to pay ~380 (price needed: 1.850) Rams are: 170.4 @ 2.231 to pay ~380 (price needed: 2.305) couldn't find any value for either team, at this time. __________________________________ Packers vs Giants (Giants 1st pick) Giants are: 236 @ 1.611 to pay ~380 (price needed: 1.643) Packers are: 144 @ 2.639 to pay ~380 (price needed: 2.727) I backed the Giants for 236 @ 1.68 to pay 396.48 (roughly an 4.34% rated profit margin). ___________________________________ 26/11/12 ___________________________________ Panthers vs Eagles (Eagles 1st pick) Eagles are: 167.1 @ 2.275 to pay ~380 (priced needed: 2.320) Panther are: 212.9 @ 1.785 to pay ~380 (priced needed: 1.845) couldn't find any value for either team, at this time. ___________________________________ also remember that this post was written on the 23/11/12 at 11:15 am, UTC +10, (Brisbane), so any player changes on either team from now on will turn these ratings into useless figures. good luck Gold Digger 1000 ps won't be posting which sites you can get the best prices on anymore, as the prices are always subject to fluctuate. |
|
By:
Week 12: Handicap Betting (This type of betting will use a 1.6% payout with a starting capital of $15000, so the bets will be to payout $240)
I am starting a handicap(point spread) ratings page from this week on-wards. Will only be doing about one game per week on average since it has 14 possible ratings to work-out and for each game. Please note: the ratings are to the nearest cent. ______________________ 25/11/12 ______________________ Raiders vs Bengals ------------------------------------------------------------- Raiders: +11, rated 143.28 @ 1.68 ~240 (price needed: 1.731) Bengals: -11, rated 100.18 @ 2.40 ~240 (price needed: 2.476) Raiders, has 1.602 as its current best price (for a rated margin of ~ -4.36%) Bengals, has 2.51 as its current best price (for a rated margin of ~ +4.78%) ------------------------------------------------------------- Raiders: +10.5, rated 138.20 @ 1.74 ~240 (price needed: 1.795) Bengals: -10.5, rated 103.86 @ 2.31 ~240 (price needed: 2.388) Raiders, has 1.645 as its current best price (for a rated margin of ~ -5.27%) Bengals, has 2.41 as its current best price (for a rated margin of ~ +4.29%) ------------------------------------------------------------- Raiders: +10, rated 132.50 @ 1.81 ~240 (price needed: 1.872) Bengals: -10, rated 108.33 @ 2.22 ~240 (price needed: 2.289) Raiders, has 1.704 as its current best price (for a rated margin of ~ -5.93%) Bengals, has 2.29 as its current best price (for a rated margin of ~ +3.37%) ------------------------------------------------------------- Point Spread Benchmark Please note: the Benchmark market is the only ratings that add up to exactly 100% due to the formulas used for buying and selling points, all other ratings can add up to any total around the 100% mark but not necessarily 100%. Raiders: +9.5, rated 126.79 @ 1.89 ~240 (price needed: 1.956) Bengals: -9.5, rated 113.21 @ 2.12 ~240 (price needed: 2.191) both teams best price has a margin less than +3.33%, so not posting the current prices from here down. ------------------------------------------------------------- Raiders: +9.0, rated 125.54 @ 1.91 ~240 (price needed: 1.976) Bengals: -9.0, rated 114.34 @ 2.10 ~240 (price needed: 2.169) ------------------------------------------------------------- Raiders: +8.5, rated 124.31 @ 1.93 ~240 (price needed: 2.000) Bengals: -8.5, rated 115.47 @ 2.08 ~240 (price needed: 2.148) ------------------------------------------------------------- Raiders: +8.0, rated 121.92 @ 1.97 ~240 (price needed: 2.035) Bengals: -8.0, rated 117.74 @ 2.04 ~240 (price needed: 2.107) ------------------------------------------------------------- Summary of my bets: Bengals -11 for: 100.18 @ 2.51), Bengals -10.5 for: 103.86 @ 2.41, and Bengals -10 for: 108.33 @ 2.29. Total outlay, 100.18 + 103.86 + 108.33 = $312.37 _____________________________________________ the prices used were all from pinnacle sports and were current at time of writing. this post was written at 7:10 pm (UTC+10:00) Brisbane, on the 23/11/12 |
|
By:
For the post written on the 23 Nov 12 02:36 (Betfair time), a small clarification for point 3. in the example, may be needed.
In the example underneath the Titans vs Jaguars game, Instead of it stating "3. Make the $36.40 your 2nd pick teams profit, (the first pick should always have the bigger potential win)". It should state "3. Make the $36.40 the profit for the TEAM THAT IS CURRENTLY LOSING, (THE TEAM THAT IS CURRENTLY WINNING SHOULD ALWAYS HAVE THE BIGGER POTENTIAL WIN)". The above change will make this point correct for the times when the second pick is backed early ,for the same reasoning as stated in the example (Titans vs Jaguars game). |