NFL Week 11 Ratings

Where are they?

NB: (D)= Decimal
    (F)= Fractional
    (A)= American
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15/11/2012
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Dolphins vs B. Bills                     

Dolphins 186.8 stake

price to back Dolphins after commission:
2.14(D); 57/50(F); +114(A)

B. Bills 213.2 stake

price to back B. Bills after commission:
1.87(D); 87/100(F); -114(A)


Price needed on betfair is 2.20 or better for dolphins and 1.92

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Can you post the actual ratings?

Do you have any figures for the spread or is it moneyline only?

NB: (D)= Decimal
    (F)= Fractional
    (A)= American

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18/11/2012
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Eagles vs Redskins

Eagles 154.4 stake

price to back Eagles after com.
2.59(D), 159/100(F), +159(A)

Redskins 245.6 stake

price to back Redskins after com.
1.63(D), 63/100(F), -159(A)


Needed on betfair is: Eagles- 2.68 and Redskins- 1.67
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Cardinals v Falcons

Cardinals 90.2 stake

They are outright game winner moneyline only, and the ratings are the prices marked (D), even though i stress this is not a tipping service, the team that i favour slightly is the one i write at the top of column, for example, in post above, i would look to back the Eagles at the 2.59, and if i couldn't get that price,  i would back the Redskins at 1.63.

also, everyone should be able to work out how much extra price is needed to take into account their betfair com. so will stop posting that now.
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18/11/2012
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Cardinals v Falcons

Cardinals 90.2 stake
price to back after com.
4.44(D), 7745/2255(F), +344(A)

Falcons 309.8 stake
price to back after com.
1.29(D), 2255/7745(F), -344(A)

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Saints v Raiders

Raiders 142.2 stake
price to back after com.
2.81(D), 6445/3555(F), +181(A)

Saints 257.8 stake
price to back after com.
1.55(D), 3555/6445(F), -181(A)

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Packers v Lions

Packers 155.2 stake
price to back after com.
2.58(D), 612/388(F), +158(A)

Lions 244.8 stake
price to back after com.
1.63(D), 388/612(F), -158(A)
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Chargers v Broncos

Broncos 295.2 stake
price to back after com.
1.35(D), 262/738(F), -282

Chargers 104.8
price to back after com.
3.82(D), 738/262(F), +282
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Browns v Cowboys

Cowboys 303.4
price to back after com.
1.32(D), 2415/7585(F), -314(A)

Browns 96.6
price to back after com.
4.14(D), 7585/2415(F), +314(A)
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Jaguars v Texans

Jaguars 49.8 stake
price to back after com.
8.03(D), 8755/1245(F), +703(A)

Texans 350.2 stake
1.14(D), 1245/8755(F), -703(A)

Important to note, the slight lean towards backing the Jaguars at the right price is not a mistake, the reason for this is they are the team you are more likely to get the odds you need. (last i saw you could get at least $50 @ 10.50, about an hour and a half ago).
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Any other teams for this week (week 11) that are not listed were either not rated, or were not expected to be profitable for any other reason, so am not posting for those reasons.

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expected outlay on the first picks, is a total of $1377.2

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all first picks were able to receive the correct odds listed or better, as of 2 hours ago, shop around with a search engine, ie google, for other sports betting sites.

am writing this part of the posting twice, with slightly different wording, since i don't know if you are allowed to post other companies on here, besides betfair.

all first picks were able to receive the correct odds listed or better, as of 2 hours ago,using either betfair, pinnacle sports and, or 5dimes sportsbook. Feel free to list others (if we are allowed to do this).

again, am writing this part of the posting twice, with slightly different wording, since i don't know if you are allowed to post other companies on here, besides betfair.

Another important piece of information i forgot to mention, is that the staking of $400 for the total payout, is for a "current bank" balance of $16,000.

nb: "current bank" is not the same as starting bank, if you had a starting bank of $18,000, and had $2,000 in bets that had not been graded,or that had already been graded and lost, then your current bank would be $16,000.
Conversely if you had started with $18,000 and grew to a current balance of $20,000, then you would bet 2.5% of that using my rating system, (which is, $500 total payout).

In all cases the most you should bet using my ratings is 2.5% of your own money that you are happy to make available for gambling.
You can also scale up or down the percentage of your bank to use, 1% to 2% is a good starting amount for people who are not as confident as i am in my ratings.
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example below, using a 2.5% payout rating.

bank a: if you had $5000 in your betting account you would bet to a total payout rating of $125

example a: if a team was rated $3.125 and you could get 3.125 or better then you should have $40 on it ($40 x 3.125 = $125)

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example below using a 1% payout rating.

bank b: if you had $100,000 in your betting account you would bet to a total payout rating of $1,000

example b:
if a team was rated $4.00 and you could back it at that price or better then you should have $250 on it ($250 x 4.00 = $1,000)
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Also be warned, these ratings are to be used for the odds available at the time they were posted and will not be updated closer to game time. Use your own judgement if a player is added or removed from the team,which cam cause a big impact to these ratings.
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lastly, be warned if anyone ever posts, 'more than 7.5% total payout' (or the equivalent in their wording), then it is probably a far too risky and volatile system, at least for the  punter who wants to make a living out of gambling. 

Good Luck, and happy punting


Gold Digger 1000

Your ratings would want to be stunningly good to be betting with no margin for error whatsoever

Thanks for the post, I will do a better informed ratings post next week, but the general rule with my ratings is if you can get a price of 102% or better for the first pick and 103.33% or better for the second pick then you should back them (example for raiders game, below).

Saints v Raiders (example)

First Pick: Raiders, with a rated price of 2.81(D), you would need 2.87 (2.81 x 1.02 = 2.8662), or better before i would back them

Second Pick: Saints, with a rated price of 1.55(D), you would need 1.60 (1.55 x 1.0333 =1.60166....), or better before i would back them.

For the Raiders example above (at time of writing, on betfair): you need 142.2 stake to payout 400, and you could get $37 @ 3.15 and $90 @ 3.1, which equates to an after commission combined stake of 127, to payout 382.12 (3.0088).

now there is still the matter of the rest of money, $15.20, (142.2 - 127) that you need to put on the selection, lets say you got that at  of 2.95 (which was available at Pinnacle sports, at time of writing).
In this example, that would be a 142.2 stake for a payout 426.92

This means that we could expect to make a combined potential profit,  of 6.73% on turnover for this game, (if the same game were played over billions of times).

Also for anyone wondering, my strike rate, up to week 10, is 17 from 40 bets(42.5%), that might not seem good but my return on investment is 10.675%, (at an average price of about 2.60.), if you are interested this works out to be a profit of $1708(400 payout x 0.10675 x 40 bets). (The reason I seem biased towards the underdog, is only because it is usually the team with the better chance for finding a price that is better than what i have rated them to be).

I didn't post this strike rate, and return on investment before, because it will sound dodgy (without showing proof), so i will not be replying about this section of the post.
Also, i will post my profit(loss) and return on investment figures in two sections, my own actual profit and loss from week 1 and my own profit and loss from week 11 on-wards, (which was when i started this public ratings post).


To recap on how to use my ratings, you need a price of 102% or better for my first pick and 103.33% for my second pick.

Good Luck.

I made a small addition and/or keystroke mistake in the above post. The part of the paragraph that needs correction is written below:


"....In this example, that would be a 142.2 stake for a payout 426.92"

it should read: "In this example, that would be a 142.2 stake for a payout 426.96",

this small error, changes the potential return on investment from 6.73% to 6.74%, (all other info was correct in previous post).

This error of 0.01%, would only have caused a decision making error if the potential return on investment was listed at 1.99%,and not the 6.73% that was quoted. 
Which means it would not have affected your decision to back the selected team, if you did not get to read this amendment until after it was written, (since i would have recommended backing this selection on any potential return on investment above 2%).


regards

G. D. 1000