North American
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Okay here's a list of the lines so far and then I'll put up what I like (Road teams first)
Dolphins @ Bills -1.5
Cardinals @ Falcons -9.5
Buccaneers -1.0 @ Panthers
Browns @ Cowboys -9.5
Packers -3.5 @ Lions
Jaguars @ Texans -15.5
Bengals -3.5 @ Chiefs
Jets @ Rams -3.5
Eagles @ Redskins -3.5
Saints -4.5 @ Raiders
Chargers @ Broncos -8.5
Colts @ Patriots -9.5
Ravens -3.0 @ Steelers
Bears @ 49ers - no prices due to injuies to both Cutler & Smith
Here's what I like anyway:
Dolphins +1.5 @ Bills
The Dolphins had a shocker against the Titans last week but a lot of that can be attributed to a horrendous start where they went 21-0 down after 16 minutes. 14 of those points were scored a result of a fumble by Reggie Bush and a pick-6 from Tannehill. Sometimes results like this mean an overreaction in Vegas and IMO you have to be able to just put a bad performance down to a bad day at the office and look at the season as a whole. Miami's defence is still a good solid unit and I think they will be able to stop the Bills scoring better than the Patriots did (or didn't) last week. Getting points is a bonus here.
Browns +7.5 @ Cowboys
Should the Cowboys EVER be giving up more than 1 score to anyone in the league!? Following a great win last week against the Eagles and with the Giants losing to the Bengals, the Cowboys can move to within 1 game of a tie for the NFC East lead if they can win this and there is playoff talk around Jerryland again. This can only mean pressure, pressure, pressure for Romo and the Boys to win what is perceived as an easy game. I wouldn't be surprised to see them beat the Browns but I think they will make hard work of it and wouldn't be surprised to see a 1-score game here.
Bengals -3.5 @ Chiefs
The Bengals have been playing a bit better the last few weeks despite one-score-margin home defeats to the Steelers and Broncos. They had a good win last week against the Giants and I think they are the type of team to be able to carry some momentum into this matchup against the Chiefs, who had a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Steelers on Monday night.
Saints -4.5 @ Raiders
I think it's worth staying with the Saints for the moment as they have the playoffs in their sights and momentum on their side following a big big win against the Falcons last week.
Colts +9.5 @ Patriots
The sight of those Colts jerseys may spur some of the older Patriots into a performance worthy of the good ol days when Manning was under centre for the Colts but for the moment, the Patriots shouldn't be giving up almost 10 points to a team witha decent QB who can actually play a bit. Apart from the Wembley victory against the Rams, the Patriots have given most of the rest of their opponents at least one shot at winning the game late on
Dolphins @ Bills -1.5
Cardinals @ Falcons -9.5
Buccaneers -1.0 @ Panthers
Browns @ Cowboys -9.5
Packers -3.5 @ Lions
Jaguars @ Texans -15.5
Bengals -3.5 @ Chiefs
Jets @ Rams -3.5
Eagles @ Redskins -3.5
Saints -4.5 @ Raiders
Chargers @ Broncos -8.5
Colts @ Patriots -9.5
Ravens -3.0 @ Steelers
Bears @ 49ers - no prices due to injuies to both Cutler & Smith
Here's what I like anyway:
Dolphins +1.5 @ Bills
The Dolphins had a shocker against the Titans last week but a lot of that can be attributed to a horrendous start where they went 21-0 down after 16 minutes. 14 of those points were scored a result of a fumble by Reggie Bush and a pick-6 from Tannehill. Sometimes results like this mean an overreaction in Vegas and IMO you have to be able to just put a bad performance down to a bad day at the office and look at the season as a whole. Miami's defence is still a good solid unit and I think they will be able to stop the Bills scoring better than the Patriots did (or didn't) last week. Getting points is a bonus here.
Browns +7.5 @ Cowboys
Should the Cowboys EVER be giving up more than 1 score to anyone in the league!? Following a great win last week against the Eagles and with the Giants losing to the Bengals, the Cowboys can move to within 1 game of a tie for the NFC East lead if they can win this and there is playoff talk around Jerryland again. This can only mean pressure, pressure, pressure for Romo and the Boys to win what is perceived as an easy game. I wouldn't be surprised to see them beat the Browns but I think they will make hard work of it and wouldn't be surprised to see a 1-score game here.
Bengals -3.5 @ Chiefs
The Bengals have been playing a bit better the last few weeks despite one-score-margin home defeats to the Steelers and Broncos. They had a good win last week against the Giants and I think they are the type of team to be able to carry some momentum into this matchup against the Chiefs, who had a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Steelers on Monday night.
Saints -4.5 @ Raiders
I think it's worth staying with the Saints for the moment as they have the playoffs in their sights and momentum on their side following a big big win against the Falcons last week.
Colts +9.5 @ Patriots
The sight of those Colts jerseys may spur some of the older Patriots into a performance worthy of the good ol days when Manning was under centre for the Colts but for the moment, the Patriots shouldn't be giving up almost 10 points to a team witha decent QB who can actually play a bit. Apart from the Wembley victory against the Rams, the Patriots have given most of the rest of their opponents at least one shot at winning the game late on
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Jaguars +16.0 @ Texans
This match falls into the same category as last weeks games with the Rams & Bills - divisional match-up with a double-digit spread. In the last 4 full seasons there have been only 5 games where a team has been favoured by more than 14 points against a divisional rival. The underdog is 3-1-1 in those games so the Jags are worth a play here IMO To emphasise how difficult it is to cover these spreads, in 2007 the Patriots were favoured by more than 14 points in 5 of their 6 divisional games that season. Although they did manage to cover the spread in 3 of those games you have to remember that they were pissed at spygate and were actually going out and running up the score in every game that season yet still only covered in 3 of the 5 games. |
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Right, lets have a look see at what you've gone for, last weeks was a epic success if I remember rightly?
Dolphins v Bills - I think your right about Miami, they are a bit hit or miss but generally a fairly ok team and can see it being quite close although maybe a bit of a swing in terms of leads and then comebacks. Browns v Cowboys - Again i think your spot on with that, Romo under pressure can only mean one thing, a close one especially with a limited running game. Bengals v Chiefs - Intresting tie really (excuse the pun there) because personally I expected the Bengals to win last week (which they did impressively) due to the Giants playing like they have and the buzzy bees playing quite well recently. That said I did think Cassel showed a fighting attitude when going for a QB rush, same with Charles and Hillis. If they get rid of the silly errors like they did last week and STOP taunting/dancing when they score (even tho they were called back) this could be a very good game! Saints v Raidders - Points spring to mind as both teams seem to be racking the points market, havn't checked the odds on overs yet but it'll be points central I would have thought. Colt v Patriots - Again....points! I do think the colts have a shot at this as they may well be pumped up. Although not as impressive on the road I do expect theym to give it a good go. Jaguars v Texans - Texans showing they are a decent team all round recently and the woeful Jags missing that certain something. Tho they did manage to rack a few points up against the Colts i'd say points again (sorry to repeat myself) would'nt be a bad shout. I'll add one more from your list: Cardinals v Falcons - It wouldn't suprise me if the Falcs are a little bit rattled from their first loss, the cardials by no means a top team in my book but may well do better than expected as I was never convinced by the recent performances from the Falcs. Hope your don't mind my post, just a few thoughts (mainly agreeing to be fair) but keep the good posts, worthy read! |
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Thanks for the comments Super Tri. The more posts on here the better IMO. I much prefer the pre-Sunday threads because I can't bet in-play to save my life so tend to try and avoid the laptop if I can while the matches are on and also I end up fluting around on the internet instead of actually watching the games.
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I know what you mean there, im actually not too bad on the inplay market in terms of reading the game and knowing which way it will probably turn, only big problem is when to get outta there before the swing in play!! Good to anazlyse the games too before hand and call it before the off (to pay a racing term there)
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Tampa-1 v Carolina my only big bet this weekend, Tampa still underrated
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db1974 - exceptional last week. I read your picks and i think they all came in. Well done Sir.
My biggest bet this week is the Bengals on the spread - 3.5 against the Chiefs. I stupidly got involved in the spread for the Steelers against the Chiefs thinking it was easy money but with the rain, injury to Big Ben and the Chiefs occasionally capable of stepping up their game against the big boys the way it worked out it was always going to be close and I concede was a poor bet. I still think the Chiefs are pretty average on the whole and think the Bengals are still being underated - I think (and hope) that they will win this comfortably. I also think the Packers will put on a bit of a show agains the Lions and have backed them in the spread (think it's -3.5 from top of my head). They are on a roll at the moment and don't see them stopping even without Clay Matthews. Good luck with your bets everyone. |
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db - I'm against you with Jags mate.
I've got some even money -15. I make Jags one of the worst teams to grace the NFL stage in recent times, no MoJo no offence - Texans beat the by 20 in week 2 and that was with MoJo ! Their 8 loses have been at an aggregate 124 points. Texans have a great record against the spread this year and although I've been a doubter all season I'm happy backing them in regular season, I do think they'll get found out come cold weather, January and play off conditions, but home field against a desperate football team I think they can give up 15 on Sunday. Good luck with your others though !!! |
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Morning horse....Good luck with the bengals...I have made them my numero uno pick on the spread also.
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Morning H
I've given up on this season, we're atrocious, we make such a **** up of most things that we'll probably win a few from here and miss out on the top QB at draft! Who else this week ? I also love the Packers giving up 3 and Stafford to go over 290 (Lads) |
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Talking of over I am on andy dalton over 240.5...10/11...trying to keep a few bets in the same game to avoid flicking from game to game.
+8.5 chargers 5/6 .. have division bets and superbowl bets on denver and don't really like going against them but the chargers were 24-0 up v this team not that long ago..i will take a 35-28 denver win  |
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I'm against Denver long term so I could do with Rivers and Norm finding a way of getting it right, there's been a move in the States for SD.
Dalton is an underrated QB and against our secondary every chance of going over that Harry, on the flip side I would expect Bungals to lead/win so there could be plenty of clock chewing and running the ball, plus I saw a forecast during the week suggesting 20-25mph winds which will affect any passing game, but that forecast seems to have been dumbed down a bit now.... |
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This is going to sound epically daft but you know when you wake up and can't figure something out even tho you've already figured it out.... just can't get my head round it.....when its a + market i.e COLTS + 9.5 that means the Colts get a +9.5 start so even if they lose by 9 they win that bet? and say if they go into the last 10 seconds with scores levels that basically gives them a 9.5 points buffer?
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thats right SuperTri....now try and lay off the glue sniffing at the weekends fella, there's money to made on here !
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Back the Colts +9.5 wont go wrong
Back Cinncinatti Wont go wrong Load up on Tampa CANT go wrong |
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LOL GLue sniffing...leave that to mike carlsson
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Nfl is where the money is indeed!! lmao thats just what I was thinking!
Personally the two that really stick out after much deliberation are: Washington - 3.5 at around evens,injury to vick and Washington with alot of room for improvement. Ravens v Steelers u40.5 points at around evens too,alot of injurys in this game and with Flacccoooo on the road and a mail box at Qb then I can't see points myself. |
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Surely Baltimore are a steal to win by at least 4, Steelers have never beaten without Ben since his debut in 04
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A team steelers have never beaten*
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A team steelers have never beaten*
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Thought the Packers would be a lot lower
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The Eagles QB looked a complete mug when he came on last week. I'll take the Skins in that game
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Echo thoughts on Washington - Eagles are in disarray. Steelers are my team but there is no way against the ravens without the QB.
The Bears 49ers 'clash' could be hilarious that is if both QB's are out - you'd have to fancy the bears as it has been argued that they have played without a QB for 25 years lol. |
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i thought Foles did a decent job in a very difficult circumstance
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Also fancy Colts over 22 points. I think Pats defence is very suspect against any decent offense.
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Last week i got burned by that Saints defense that i was ripping to shreds on the week 10 thread...... i apologise
 todays bets Tampa Bay -1.5 the team that boasts the best rush defense also have the worst pass defence but they only have to stop cam newton from running with the ball(cos he aint got anybody to throw it to !) Chargers @ Broncos over 49.5 the broncos have scored at least 21 points in every game this season and with the weather forecast looking good (light wind 6mph) and the #1 rated QB i can see them racking up loads more against the man that just loves losing New England -9.5 i dont like giving up big leads but the patriots are getting a good mix of pass/rush these days and they aint as one dimensional as they were last season. The colts will still score points in this match...but not enough to cover the spread good luck gents |
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Foles started well....then the dallas D took over.
I can see the eagles winning this...vick being out could be a good thing..mccoy will see more of the ball which is what they need. Washington are shocking. @db.. When you got down to the last few in LAST MAN STANDING how many weeks did you play? |
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Maybe I was a tad harsh on Foles. All I remember is that the game was close then he threw an int and fumbled. Lost comfortably in the end.
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it was a crazy 3 minutes that cost the eagles last week. Foles has had a weeks practice with the big team. he likes to sit in the pocket and chuck it around. lets hope his offensive line will give him the chance to do just that
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vick has fumbled all year so it wasnt that bad
 ...we will have a better season when gruden comes in |
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Foles did ok & I was pleased for him. But the ravens go insane when they play the steelers, lets face it the Ravens want to be the Steelers and they play every match against them like they are on PCP. It would have to be turnover central to get a result IMHO.
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suggs seems to play a blinder v the ravens....leftwich in trouble imo
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i cant see the ravens/steelers being high scoring
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I can see the difference being flacco to smith combo
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i am backing the cards outright today
crazy but i fancy an upset also think the chargers are too high |
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Couldn't believe Chargers are +9 in a place. I know they lost by 11 last time against them but they are better than that. I have loved Denver this season as have felt bookies have under rated them in most games. However now it seems to be going the other way.
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I have done a cardinals chargers handicap double
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done the same harry
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no clay for Packers
could be the reason for the price potential shootout there |
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well clay was never going to play this week.
also tempted to back carolina...usually go red button but with the packers game on I will stick with that..should be a good game |