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racingguru
08 Oct 12 08:08
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Date Joined: 06 Jan 01
| Topic/replies: 2,116 | Blogger: racingguru's blog
Now I'll preface this by saying I know nothing about NFL teams but I happened to fall upon a friend who subscribed to a NFL tipping service that produced very good results year on year with picks all published to an independant body. Now I got the tips for free from my friend and have made good profits every year. His record for last 10 years was 54.9% which I'm told in NFL betting is exceptional.

So comes this year 6wins, 19 losses from 25 picks in first 5 weeks! and this is from the top rated guy around. Just makes me think NFL betting is just luck as the line is so accurate if the best guy around statiscally for last 10 years gets beat up what chance has anyone?

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Replies: 7
By:
db1974
When: 08 Oct 12 09:53
5 weeks is no length of time to be judging anything. Maybe he's just having a bad run. Last year I had a great soccer season, this year so far 1 win from 9 bets.

I find NFL Hcp betting to be one of the things that I bet very well. I can't pick a Under/Over to save my life though.

If this guy has made profits for the last 10 years then I wouldn't be surprised to see him come good this season again, at least to break-even point, which will seem like a profit at this stage!
By:
d13phe
When: 08 Oct 12 13:17
learn the game yourself.

Betting live on NFL games is probably one of the easiest ways to make money on betfair over the mid to long term.

I don't subscribe to all this tipping nonsense.  If you don't know what your betting on yourself you should not be betting imo.
By:
The Priest
When: 08 Oct 12 19:13
The best way to win money is using B E T 3 6 5 and there Teasers section , for instance  yesterday we had such plums as Chicago + 2.5 , San F - 2 , Pats off 0 , Giants - 3 etc etc , trebles and above only and you can choose 6 , 6.5 or 7 point teaser ( Teaser if your not aware is the normal handicap plus or minus 7 so if San Fran vs Buffalo was set at San Fran - 9 ( Buffalo + 9) with the 7pt teaser you get San Fran - 2 (basically to just win at home to Buffalo , yes i know lol) or Buffalo + 16.

By just carefully choosing 3 or 4 you stand a lot better chance of regularly picking up the wins , also Over and Unders is the same.

You will always struggle against the normal Vegas Line as it's usually called.
By:
RAPS
When: 09 Oct 12 01:22
d13phe has called it.

54.9% IS exceptional - that shows you hard it is to beat the line.

In-play is where the market becomes inefficient.
By:
racingguru
When: 15 Oct 12 07:11
just an update he went 1-4 this week with Denver +1.5 pending. His lone win was the fluke of Seattle so season of the top guy in NFL tipsters over last 10 years is 7-23. I'm done with it and have decided to quit whilst a few pennies up lifetime on it. Stick with the horses - thats all I know.
By:
jim81
When: 15 Oct 12 20:48
I wouldn't pay anybody for tips on any sport with anyone else's money. If they were that good, they wouldn't need to run a tipping service to make a few quid.

If you want NFL advice, two very good FREE sources I use are walterfootball.com (he was excellent this week, especially pay attention to his Picks of the Month) and a podcast from the Betting Dork (search iTunes podcasts in the iTunes store.)
By:
The Priest
When: 15 Oct 12 21:42
ok this is aftertiming but what the hell

Teasers with 365 like i said

2 trebles 7pt teaser 6/4 the odds

Bet 1

Atlanta -2 (basically just to win is what you should be thinking)
New England +3.5 (love that half a point you get, so many times a winning drive to kick a field goal kills you)
Green Bay + 10 (bet of the year , Green Bay are not that bad and whilst i expected Houston to either win a close one or lose a close one 10pts for GB was too big )

-------

Bet 2

Tampa + 3 (getting points at home to Brady Quinn's Kansas?)
Baltimore + 3.5 (Ravens very good recent record vs Romo)
Phili + 3.5 (genuinly thought Phili would romp this so 3.5 pts was a no brainer, lucky in the end i must admit)


Admittedly at one point or another most of them looked doomed but came through

The point is with the teaser providing you don't get carried away and start doing 10 timers because of the odds etc (always 1 lets you down) and stick to 3 or 4 at the very most it can be quite a profitable little type of wager.
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