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db1974
20 Sep 12 12:21
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Date Joined: 08 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 5,523 | Blogger: db1974's blog
Bit worried this week as loads of stuff stands out as opposed to last week when I couldn't see anything at all Crazy

49ers -6.5 @ Vikings - the way the 49ers are playing I think it's probably worth keeping them onside for the moment. Vikings lost to Colts last week and, given that AP won't be running anywhere on this defense, Ponder isn't going to keep this close.

Jets -1.5 @ Dolphins - Dolphins beat an awful awful team last week in the Raiders while the Jets lost heavily in Pittsburgh. I still think the Jets are still much the better team here and should win easily enough.

Cardinals +4.0 vs Eagles - Iggles are without their starting centre for the season which is a sneaky under-the-radar injury but is a tough position to fill (ask the Raiders!). Cards are coming off a big win and are at home where they went 6-2 last year.

Broncos +2.5 vs Texans - Broncos started terribly last week against the Falcons where they had 4 turnovers in their first 5 possessions (their best possession in the 1st quarter was a 3-and-out which ended with a 45yd punt!). They were 20-0 down with 5 mins to go in the 1st half but still managed to end up losing by just 6 pts. They should have too much for the slightly over-rated (IMO) Texans in Denver.

Steelers -4.0 @ Raiders - Raiders are dire. Steelers are getting old but they are not dire yet.

Patriots +3.0 @ Ravens - rematch of last seasons AFC Conference Championship game. Both teams coming off a loss and one of them will be 1-2 after this weekend. Patriots are an impressive 10-5 ATS after a loss over the last 4 seasons (13-2 Moneyline). They are also 5-2-2 ATS as Road Dogs over the same period. Pats are worth a punt on the Moneyline IMO but I'm taking the points just in case.

Good luck all

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Replies: 305
By:
d13phe
When: 20 Sep 12 13:41
this may sound crazy but this has trap week written all over it.

i don't trust these replacement officials and so many of these match ups are going to be close that a couple of key decisions could cost the match

it is no coincidence for me that the home teams were 12-2 Shocked last week and the home teams may worth be punting on again
By:
d13phe
When: 20 Sep 12 13:42
sorry 14-2 ShockedShocked
By:
nellie1970
When: 20 Sep 12 14:00
detroit -3.5 against tennesse is my bet of the week.

good luck all
By:
db1974
When: 20 Sep 12 15:34
I think too much is being made of the replacement refs. There wasn't one home team which won last week who didn't deserve to win. Only 6 road teams were favourites anyway and all of them by less than 7pts so those matches could have gone either way. The only real shock of the week was the Cardinals beating the Patriots at the Razor.
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 20 Sep 12 16:36
The pats for me this week.
By:
Off the toe
When: 20 Sep 12 19:02
I'm a Seahawks fan, but currently selling family members to back Green Bay giving up 3....
By:
grayhawk
When: 20 Sep 12 19:14
Selling family members Laugh....i'm with you on the Niners db1974, struggle to see the Vikings moving the ball regularly.
By:
d13phe
When: 20 Sep 12 21:30
i have just seen the Panthers price Shocked

that is surely a huuuuge lay

always back the Giants when they are underdogs
By:
nellie1970
When: 20 Sep 12 21:35
a few missing for the giants tonight
By:
d13phe
When: 20 Sep 12 22:09
cheeky punt on Giants -4.5 at 3/1 for me

not big because as i mentioned below i dont trust the current officials

I know Nicks and Bradshaw are out but they have playmakers and I always take the Giants as underdogs, particularly against a team like Panthers who i like but they arent the class of the Giants
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 20 Sep 12 22:20
Giants on the road, on a short week with injuries, think Carolina might just sneak it, but as you say at the prices, the play has to be the giants.

Probably prefer the unders though in this one.
By:
d13phe
When: 21 Sep 12 09:07
nice start to the weekend Grin

i wanted a greater superiority to bet on but no one offered any decent odds because the Panthers were favourites Laugh

the NFL odds makers have very short memories
By:
nellie1970
When: 21 Sep 12 10:48
well done d13phe

good shout with the Gmen
By:
d13phe
When: 21 Sep 12 12:56
I think the chiefs look pretty good value this week

I know they have been poor but their roster is better than their results suggest and against a very poor run D they will just run run and run with Hillis and Charles

Cassel connected a few with Bowe as well towards the end of last week

I at least believe they will cover the TD the handicappers are giving them
By:
Sudoku_Junior
When: 21 Sep 12 15:38
Well done on the giants. Agree about the chiefs, although there is always a danger that brees just had an amazing day.

I also like the lions -3.5 on the road at tennessee.
By:
CJ
When: 22 Sep 12 12:49
Anyone like the Rams? Was impressed by them last week. Looked a useful team all across offense. Thought they were worth keeping on the right side of and as the Bears were bl00dy awful last week, thought they maybe a play on the handicap +7
By:
Nilsson Schmilsson
When: 22 Sep 12 12:51
i like overs, as tipped with 'in depth' analyisis at kjbetting.blogspot.co.uk Silly
By:
Pun tang
When: 22 Sep 12 13:52
49ers -6.5
Buffalo -3
Houston -1

Treble (all 10/11)
By:
Steveirll
When: 22 Sep 12 21:37
is it possible to do an Accum on here in NFL games i.e week 3 ?
By:
horse9
When: 23 Sep 12 14:02
I'm with Pun Tang, done those 3 separately but I liek the treble too.

Weather due in Cleveland and Miami so beware the overs in those 2.

2 big plays for me today, over in San Diego, I really can see this being a shootout, had a lumpy shirts buy in the spreads in this.
Manning over 245 yards looks a steal to me, I love what the Texans are doing this year and though they're solid against the pass this is Peyton Manning and I think they'll be chasing the game, 246 looks cheap to me.

Good luck all
By:
DirkDiggler
When: 23 Sep 12 14:19
I wouldn't get carried away with Manning, Texas are an elite team, very well balanced. They could run all over Denver with Foster and Tate.
By:
HARRY22
When: 23 Sep 12 14:56
Elite teams win superbowls and make championship games most seasons...texans have a lot to prove...lets not get carried away on the back of 2 wins against weak teams...this happened last season with detroit
By:
mattc
When: 23 Sep 12 15:44
horrible week.  just gonna do a couple of accies
SF
Dallas
off scratch

and
a little on FH-6.5 and Ari+3

just going to do a small multiples bet this week.

think a number of the games will get weird results today
By:
HARRY22
When: 23 Sep 12 16:26
49ers -6.5
cleveland +3
colts -3
By:
db1974
When: 23 Sep 12 16:45
In fairness to the Texans, they were very good last year especially in Defense, where they finished ranked 2nd overall in the Regular season. 3rd-string QB arguably cost them the match against the Ravens in the Playoffs so any confidence it's not just based on the first 2 games of this season. I'd be against them in the outright but they can be a handful for any side. Having said that, I fancy Denver to beat them today.
By:
db1974
When: 23 Sep 12 16:47
Nilsson Schmilsson 
i like overs, as tipped with 'in depth' analyisis at kjbetting.blogspot.co.uk


Apologies. I'll try to embed a Tom Petty classic in next weeks analysis!
By:
Nilsson Schmilsson
When: 23 Sep 12 16:49
Cool
By:
dlarssonf
When: 23 Sep 12 16:54
I thought it was special team that really cost them against Baltimore last year
By:
db1974
When: 23 Sep 12 17:09
Yates threw 3 interceptions in the game, from which the Ravens scored 10 pts.

But the 3rd one was the killer - 1st & 10 on the Ravens 38 on the first play after the 2-min warning. Deep ball to Andre Johnson when there was no need for it and Ed Reed makes an admittedly lucky interception. Would have been better throwing it OOB and still having 3 more downs to pick up the 10 yards.

Hindsight is 20:20 vision but it was a rookie mistake
By:
CJ
When: 23 Sep 12 17:10
OK, have done

Rams +7
Colts +3
Fins +2.5
By:
CJ
When: 23 Sep 12 17:10
Colts -3 !
By:
HARRY22
When: 23 Sep 12 17:11
Suppose I am being too harsh on them...they will probably do a clean sweep in that division...by far the weakest.
By:
dlarssonf
When: 23 Sep 12 17:13
yeah though special teams had already fumbled on the one yard line which was converted to a touchdown.  Yates was always chasing the game, special team were horrific first half in that game
By:
HARRY22
When: 23 Sep 12 17:23
They may get a chance to put that right this season...the reason I am negative on them is you have to go back to the buccs winning team to find a very average QB,,2003...Now that was a special D..probably the best I have seen and that includes the ravens winning D which also had a poor QB
By:
Shazza93
When: 23 Sep 12 17:28
For the early games going with:
49ers -6.5
Saints -7.5

More on the 49ers than the Saints though Mischief
By:
HARRY22
When: 23 Sep 12 18:05
bengals Grin
By:
d13phe
When: 23 Sep 12 18:08
Chiefs carry on as they left off
By:
d13phe
When: 23 Sep 12 18:10
romo what are you doing
By:
HARRY22
When: 23 Sep 12 18:11
reggie bush is my fantasy football starman..on fire
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