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Is it just me or is the Steelers -14.5 a bit generous here
The Seahawks were awful against the 49ers yesterday and the Steelers will surely come out with a lot to prove after yesterday's crushing defeat by the Ravens
I can see the Steelers winning this by 30+
The Seahawks were awful against the 49ers yesterday and the Steelers will surely come out with a lot to prove after yesterday's crushing defeat by the Ravens
I can see the Steelers winning this by 30+
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It appears a generous line but the team that loses in the Super Bowl has a terrible record against the spread the following year.
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Oh - that's interesting, thanks.
It would have been more interesting BEFORE I put the bet on  but it's a good one to remember |
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Hi nugget
I had a quick look at those stats and, while it may have been true a few years ago, more recent seasons would indicate that this stat may be a little out-of-date Using consensus for the spreads 2005: Philadephia: 11-5 ATS in following season: Loss of 6.45pts 2006: Seattle: 6-9-1: Loss of 3.45pts 2007: Chicago: 7-9: Loss of 2.63pts 2008: New England: 9-7: Profit of 1.19pts 2009: Arizona: 8-8: Loss of 0.72pts 2010: Indianapolis: 8-7-1: Profit of 0.28pts If we take the first 2 matches of each season, 5 of the 6 teams went 1-1 ATS (Bears went 0-2). All 5 of those teams lost ATS in Week 1 but beat the spread in Week 2. In fact all 6 teams beat their opponents by at least 2 scores (Bears had to cover 11.5pts and they only won by 10) If we take the first 4 matches of each season, 5 of the 6 teams went 2-2 ATS (Bears went 0-4 ATS) If we take the first 6 matches, Pats went 3-3, Cards went 4-2, & Colts went 3-2-1 I wouldn't think that it is particularly relevant although it's possible that Vegas overstated the spread in Week 1 and then over-corrected in Week 2 |
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Yeh i haven't check but i think it is when double digit favourites they are really bad against the spread.
I think i will probably back it because i really like it but with a v.small stake. |
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Personally i dont like it, even though i think the seahawks are one of the worse 3 teams in the nfl at the moment and going to the east coast, i just cant bet a team with over 14points coming off a massive loss.
I heard another stat today that teams that lose by 20 or more on opening day only win less than 40% off their games that season. I think the steelers could change things around but that defeat has definatly put me off betting them for a while at least. |
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On the topic of the Steelers, doesnt any think the current price of 25/1 is great value? They lost a game they were supposed to lose and they've gone from 16's to 25's!. Granted it was a horrible loss, but everything that could go wrong did go wrong in that game. Look at the next 6 games on their schedule, they could easily go 5-1, maybe 6-0 with a bit of luck. Massive overreaction to 1 game imo.
26 on the outright spreads looks amazing value to. ...Just noticed that 25's has gone, 20's now. Still looks good. |
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Seattle's offensive play calling is bad and the offence is worse! Well called though db1974.
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