Week 2 early line: Seahawks @ Steelers

It appears a generous line but the team that loses in the Super Bowl has a terrible record against the spread the following year.

Oh - that's interesting, thanks.

It would have been more interesting BEFORE I put the bet on but it's a good one to remember

Hi nugget

I had a quick look at those stats and, while it may have been true a few years ago, more recent seasons would indicate that this stat may be a little out-of-date

Using consensus for the spreads

2005: Philadephia: 11-5 ATS in following season: Loss of 6.45pts
2006: Seattle: 6-9-1: Loss of 3.45pts
2007: Chicago: 7-9: Loss of 2.63pts
2008: New England: 9-7: Profit of 1.19pts
2009: Arizona: 8-8: Loss of 0.72pts
2010: Indianapolis: 8-7-1: Profit of 0.28pts

If we take the first 2 matches of each season, 5 of the 6 teams went 1-1 ATS (Bears went 0-2). All 5 of those teams lost ATS in Week 1 but beat the spread in Week 2. In fact all 6 teams beat their opponents by at least 2 scores (Bears had to cover 11.5pts and they only won by 10)

If we take the first 4 matches of each season, 5 of the 6 teams went 2-2 ATS (Bears went 0-4 ATS)

If we take the first 6 matches, Pats went 3-3, Cards went 4-2, & Colts went 3-2-1

I wouldn't think that it is particularly relevant although it's possible that Vegas overstated the spread in Week 1 and then over-corrected in Week 2

Yeh i haven't check but i think it is when double digit favourites they are really bad against the spread.

I think i will probably back it because i really like it but with a v.small stake.

Personally i dont like it, even though i think the seahawks are one of the worse 3 teams in the nfl at the moment and going to the east coast, i just cant bet a team with over 14points coming off a massive loss.

I heard another stat today that teams that lose by 20 or more on opening day only win less than 40% off their games that season.
I think the steelers could change things around but that defeat has definatly put me off betting them for a while at least.

On the topic of the Steelers, doesnt any think the current price of 25/1 is great value?  They lost a game they were supposed to lose and they've gone from 16's to 25's!.  Granted it was a horrible loss, but everything that could go wrong did go wrong in that game.  Look at the next 6 games on their schedule, they could easily go 5-1, maybe 6-0 with a bit of luck.  Massive overreaction to 1 game imo.

26 on the outright spreads looks amazing value to.

...Just noticed that 25's has gone, 20's now.  Still looks good.

Seattle's offensive play calling is bad and the offence is worse! Well called though db1974.