North American
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Sporting are up with some of their spread markets for Sundays big one.
Point 43-46
Shirts 280-300
TD yards 100-110
FG Yards 96-106
Pen yards 95-105
Plus hundreds more
I could make a case for buying all of these.
Points - big debate on the overs/unders, and if I have called it wrong and the game goes under the 44.5 line, what;s the lowest it could make up ? 40 ? So to me a very limited downside to buying points and the upside is bigger as the game could go wild.
Shirts - good quote I think, I'll probably end up buying anyway but they've also broken down the market into halfs and go 140-155 2st half shirts, which I do think is value.
I'll put my spread bets up here at some point Sunday, if anyone else plays spreads please add your selections.
GL All
Point 43-46
Shirts 280-300
TD yards 100-110
FG Yards 96-106
Pen yards 95-105
Plus hundreds more
I could make a case for buying all of these.
Points - big debate on the overs/unders, and if I have called it wrong and the game goes under the 44.5 line, what;s the lowest it could make up ? 40 ? So to me a very limited downside to buying points and the upside is bigger as the game could go wild.
Shirts - good quote I think, I'll probably end up buying anyway but they've also broken down the market into halfs and go 140-155 2st half shirts, which I do think is value.
I'll put my spread bets up here at some point Sunday, if anyone else plays spreads please add your selections.
GL All
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Total Passing TD's @ 3.2...like the buy. Captain obvious here, but dont expect much from the ground game, even near the goal line.
Total 3rd down conversions...buy @ 10.7...you know pitt will convert their fair share with ben scrambling around..dont see much downside. Roethlisberger yards on 1st completiton...buy @ 15.5...wouldnt be suprised to see them test GB early with a bomb to wallace. James Jones on the top reciever index Center of attention @ 29...have to feel that line is good for at least two holds Stop at a penalty...Sell @ 13.5 plays. GB have been good this year, but have historically had penalty issues under McCarthy. Pittsburgh a dirty team. Dont see much downside. Also fancied the sell on that stark trading mad special...i think theres a good chance he gets no receptions....risky as hell though if he does get a few! Got about 20 more on top of these but cant be bothered listing them all. Luck forward to see what youre playing horse. |
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Prophet - that Starks line is a genuine pay off the mortgage or staright to the poorhouse market, if he was to run for 50 and sneak a few screens and nick another 60 yards it makes up 3000 !
I agree selling is the sensible play but one breakout reception and you could be doing 2500 units ! I love that center of attention line, agree there will be holds but I reckon a couple of false start pens as well. I'm all in for an offensive game, had an all buy up on: Shirts @ 300 1st half shirts @ 155 Points @ 46 2nd quarter points @ 14.5 1st TD shirt number @ 59 Total 1st downs @ 38 Total offensive yards @ 665 Total return yards @ 275 'Green Day' (total GB yards + 50 bonus if GB win) @ 450 Center of attention @ 29 Big Ben gross passing yards @ 240 'Green Day' and Total rtn yards are my big plays, 2 kick offs, working on 8 scores so 10 kick off returns, plus all punt, int and fumble returns count, I can see it going well over the 275. Good Luck ! |
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I should add that the 'Green Day' line inlcudes all purpose GB yards, pass, rush, kickoff and punt return yards, I can see this making up 600
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Finally succombed and bought the match perf @ 264.
Hate buying when it's high but there should be plenty of sacks, pens and the chance of turnovers so I've got them three components making up 150-170, I'm not needing too many TDs/FGs to cover the rest, could be a 300+ make up IMO |
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horse9, I also like the look of the total return yards @ 275 but couldn't see it on sporting. What sub-category was it under or was it on a different spread site?
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Match specials, called 'Many Happy Returns'
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thanks
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Don't often disagree with your posts but can see huge downside in any buy of Green Bay yards today.
Rodgers will likely be in the 230-250 range, 30 points for winning (roughly on average), 80 yards rushing? so you're looking at 100 return yards, seems a lot to me. |
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Also think the points buy/sell is pretty much a lottery on this one.
17-7 or 28-31 (OT) wouldn't surprise me either way. If Pitts end up struggling on the O line I think we could see a real tedious win for the Packers |
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Lori - I've got the game down as an offensive one so I'm working on GB receiving one kick off, 4/5 kick offs following Steeler points and 3/4 punts, of course not all kick punts will be returned but if 4 kick offs and 1 punt are returned I reckon they'll be close on 100 yards.
I've also got Rodgers in for more than low 200s, they can't run on the Steelers so Rodgers will be forced to go aerial, 280 would be a fair figure with 300+ very achievable. 290 pass 60 rush 100 kick returns That covers the spread, 50 for a Pack win is profit, and of course if they don't win you would expect they'll be chasing the game with plenty of bonus yards towards the end. That's my take anyway, cue the 9-3 dullfest [:o] |
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Yeh, i won't be critical win or lose, it's a sample size of 1 whatever happens.
FWIW it seems Rogers is hugely variable, I think under 279 or so is looking very good for a LINE bet (can see it being 240, 190, 250, 375 for instance) |
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I think the Rodgers line depends on who you thinkwill win, if the Pack get in front his passing yards will reduce, if they're behind or it's close I expect Packers to be passing 70% of the time aand as you say the 375 is very possible.
Also, Big Bens gross passing yards at 240 is value - remember this is gross so if he's dumped half a dozen times the yards don't come off. What have you played ? |
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I've honestly not done much this year, I've done the specials as posted and I'll probably take under 279 or whatever on Rodgers passing yards on the line not the spread.
I'm finding it a toughie to weigh up, because the teams are kind of a mirror of each other where they look like they're good on offense but I have a feeling they're better on defense. I also have to confess that I find week two more fascinating than Superbowl week on average and tend to concentrate more on the specials. I realise that's a very robotic/dull viewpoint but I rather struggle to get excited analysing just one game, even if it is the important one. |
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The "who will win" thing is a little circular for this one too, imo.
Packers won't win if they can't pass, but as you say, if they do win they'll pass less.. but they'll struggle to run , so might pass anyway. Contrast that to most games where the better team just runs out the clock of course and it's a headbanger! |
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Ok, plumped for:
Total 3rd down conversions: Buy @ 10.7 Return Yards: Buy @ 275 Time of 1st field goal: Sell @ 18 |
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quite like total 3rd down conversions
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well done on them overs horse..u were very keen on that for the last 2 weeks
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How Rodgers covered that spread I'll never know. Well done on the points and others though horse, deserved it.
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i was on over aaron...thought them big drops were gonna rob me
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Cheers Gents, for the record:
Shirts @ 300 Make up 430 1st half shirts @ 155 Make up 294 Points @ 46 Make up 56 2nd quarter points @ 14.5 Make up 17 1st TD shirt number @ 59 Make up 87 Total 1st downs @ 38 Make up 34 Total offensive yards @ 665 Make up 725 Total return yards @ 275 Make up 217 'Green Day' (total GB yards + 50 bonus if GB win) @ 450 Make up 451 Center of attention @ 29 Make up 20 Big Ben gross passing yards @ 240 Make up 263 Match perf @ 262 Make up 274 Fair to say I've had worse superbowls ! Upsetting the 'nap' (return yards) went wrong and one or two others followed me in. Hope you all made a few quid |
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I sold the Starks spread (he'd had 3 catches for a total of 15yds in the playoffs) and by the time he'd rushed 52yds I was bleeding from the ears!
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I was having that chat with Prophet I think earlier in the week and we both made it a sell, but one breakout screen that goes downfield and you're getting killed.
Very brave bet, well done ! |
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In my gambling world there is a very thin, frequently blurred line between brave and stoopid.
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you missed 3rd down conversions 10.6 buy, settled 13
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Nice job on the starks sell orioles - didnt want to give myself diabetes, so decided to swerve that one.
And nice work on the spreads horse too. No games for 7 months...this is officially the most depressing week of the year! |